Wednesday, April 17, 2013

Sunny in Connecticut

At least it is a nice spring day.  Sun is shining. My weatherbug ap says it is 64 out there. Sweet. Another brutal day for my portfolio. Down about 2.5%. I feel good that I have a bunch of cashola on the sidelines. Every day I am tempted to do some buying, but historically I have always pulled the trigger way too early in dropping markets. There has to be some form of capitulation. And since markets are still up 8% in 2013, I seriously doubt it that we are there in aggregate. Though some particular individual stocks are feeling the pain.

Of the list of stocks I made to watch on feb 11th, at the time I told myself if they dropped 5% that I would start considering them. Since then here is where they stand (exclusive of dividends):

CIM: +3.9%
O: +9.0%
STO: -12.8%
FCX: -21.8%
INTC: +4.3%
CSCO: -3.0%
SAI: +17.7%
PSEC: -7.8%
PM: +4.4%
KKR: +15.9%
RIG: -14.8%
GA: +11.3%
ABR: +0.8%
NEM: -26.3%
TC-PT: -18.5%

So you can see NEM, TC-PT, RIG, PSEC, FCX and STO have triggered my five percent trigger. I actually already then bought FCX, RIG, TC-PT and NEM. Clearly I have bought them all "early", but certainly better than having bought February 11th.

STO is now the one that looks most attractive. This is a stock that is under 23.00 that made 3.10 lat year and expects to make 2.93 next year. And in the event something political happens in the Middle East, Norwegian Oil will be looking good.   Of course,  when prices are dropping and you think they may drop further, no one will buy. That is the problem with any price drops.

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