Monthly Tracking Portfolio - April 27th 2012

Monthly Tracking Portfolio Update

Well, I certainly have a lot to write about this weekend.  I want to share some stats I have done on annual dividends, I want to discuss an MFI Option project I started in January, obviously I have my normal weekend update... but first, another month-end is upon us which means it is time to end a monthly tracking portfolio and start a new one.

I should note that this month I used 50m and over instead of $100m and over for market cap.  That is unusual for me.  Not sure if I made a mistake, or created this portfolio "late" and the top 50 over 50 was all I had saved.

Another month has zipped by. As my faithful readers know, I have been tracking the Magic Formula Stocks as described by Joel Greenblatt in The Little Book That Beats the Stock Market since January 2006.  Every month I take the top 50 stocks over $100m market cap from his website and track how that portfolio of stocks fares versus the Russell 3000 for the next 12 months.  It has been an uphill struggle as the tracking portfolios have under-performed, driven in part by Chinese reverse merger fiascos, for-profit education stocks and home health care stocks all being proverbial albatrosses.



This month-end was sadly no different, going up a solid 10.5 %, but still getting thrashed by the R3K, which was up a more solid 15.3%!  Here are the 50 stocks in descending performance order:

 

Stock	Initial Price	End Price	Percent Change	52 week low	Mkt Cap
OSIR	5.49	11.42	108.0%	4.64	157
HRB	14.32	28.66	100.1%	14.35	4,268
LMLP	2.00	3.44	72.0%	N/A	54
JCOM	24.50	40.17	64.0%	23.55	1,227
IDCC	26.13	42.54	62.8%	22.37	1,250
GME	21.76	34.62	59.1%	15.32	2,986
NBIX	7.64	11.93	56.2%	6.25	376
CSGS	14.68	21.24	44.7%	14.17	548
USHS	8.71	12.50	43.5%	N/A	61
SNDK	37.58	53.90	43.4%	30.99	8,717
UTHR	44.96	62.20	38.3%	41.42	2,265
USNA	40.89	55.88	36.7%	30.51	555
DENN	4.13	5.64	36.6%	3.88	384
ARTC	25.27	34.30	35.7%	24.14	702
PDLI	5.72	7.70	34.6%	6.14	883
LACO	2.32	3.11	34.1%	2.07	63
VCI	19.40	25.46	31.2%	19.03	827
INSP	11.33	14.79	30.5%	N/A	437
GNI	54.43	68.73	26.3%	60.32	97
SAI	11.64	14.65	25.9%	10.31	3,928
VECO	30.35	37.08	22.2%	26.15	1,366
ATVI	12.66	14.82	17.1%	10.45	14,009
RTN	52.02	60.20	15.7%	49.03	17,825
CPLA	32.98	36.00	9.2%	25.81	407
EXEL	4.80	5.22	8.7%	4.19	613
USMO	12.15	13.19	8.6%	10.34	283
NSU	3.44	3.69	7.3%	2.68	685
CJES	18.48	19.23	4.1%	16.40	924
MSFT	31.05	31.79	2.4%	26.26	260,232
KFY	16.50	16.09	-2.5%	15.15	723
CF	196.38	185.75	-5.4%	154.17	12,032
NATR	15.25	14.30	-6.2%	12.66	228
WSTG	12.86	12.04	-6.4%	10.69	61
NEMFF	11.10	9.84	-11.4%	N/A	1,263
CBRX	0.69	0.61	-11.6%	0.55	64
AFAM	23.10	19.89	-13.9%	17.87	223
KLIC	13.24	11.04	-16.6%	8.05	893
DELL	16.09	13.35	-17.0%	8.69	27,841
MANT	31.23	25.65	-17.9%	19.74	933
POZN	6.24	5.06	-18.9%	4.55	219
MBND	2.63	2.13	-19.0%	1.37	57
TNAV	7.19	5.43	-24.5%	5.05	266
EGY	9.43	6.61	-29.9%	6.30	473
BODY	14.86	9.96	-33.0%	7.46	239
AMED	15.26	10.18	-33.3%	9.51	440
GTAT	6.74	3.66	-45.7%	2.61	766
ASYS	7.28	3.72	-48.9%	2.90	66
APOL	35.78	17.93	-49.9%	15.98	4,086
CECO	7.36	2.19	-70.2%	2.03	474
ESI	65.59	17.74	-73.0%	11.69	1,518

 As you can see, the Education stocks were (again) laggards. But even if you pull them out, you just tied (up 15.4%). Kind of disheartening.

Here is a listing of every portfolio I have tracked:
  

Average of Percent Change
Date	Total	IWV
1/6/2006	16.0%	10.9%
2/17/2006	21.2%	14.6%
3/29/2006	13.0%	9.6%
4/7/2006	10.3%	12.1%
5/12/2006	20.4%	18.6%
5/31/2006	29.2%	23.3%
6/30/2006	22.4%	20.0%
7/31/2006	19.7%	17.3%
8/31/2006	13.0%	13.3%
9/28/2006	12.7%	14.6%
10/27/2006	10.3%	12.0%
11/29/2006	-0.3%	4.8%
12/28/2006	-6.9%	3.4%
1/26/2007	-10.2%	-6.6%
2/27/2007	-3.7%	-1.0%
3/26/2007	-9.8%	-5.5%
4/27/2007	-10.9%	-5.0%
5/29/2007	-11.5%	-6.3%
7/3/2007	-30.0%	-15.6%
7/30/2007	-19.9%	-11.5%
8/30/2007	-12.5%	-8.7%
9/27/2007	-19.0%	-18.2%
11/2/2007	-40.4%	-34.3%
11/28/2007	-40.1%	-38.3%
12/28/2007	-36.3%	-40.0%
1/25/2008	-36.4%	-35.9%
2/26/2008	-51.7%	-41.5%
3/24/2008	-40.9%	-36.8%
4/25/2008	-25.6%	-31.0%
5/28/2008	-22.2%	-33.6%
7/2/2008	-11.7%	-25.3%
7/29/2008	-10.5%	-20.9%
8/29/2008	-13.8%	-17.9%
9/26/2008	-4.3%	-10.0%
10/31/2008	18.7%	13.9%
11/26/2008	50.9%	27.7%
12/26/2008	48.9%	32.3%
1/23/2009	59.3%	36.4%
2/27/2009	92.8%	55.6%
3/27/2009	85.8%	48.1%
4/24/2009	69.7%	45.8%
5/29/2009	31.8%	22.8%
6/29/2009	21.3%	24.0%
7/29/2009	19.5%	15.9%
8/28/2009	7.4%	8.8%
9/25/2009	12.6%	12.4%
10/30/2009	22.7%	18.3%
11/27/2009	24.3%	13.6%
12/31/2009	23.7%	18.1%
1/22/2010	19.0%	20.6%
2/26/2010	18.6%	23.6%
3/25/2010	10.0%	15.4%
4/23/2010	7.1%	11.4%
5/28/2010	19.3%	25.4%
6/29/2010	16.7%	25.7%
7/29/2010	5.4%	20.1%
9/2/2010	7.3%	10.1%
9/24/2010	-4.3%	0.3%
10/29/2010	-2.9%	10.4%
11/26/2010	-8.5%	1.4%
1/3/2011	-11.4%	0.1%
1/28/2011	-7.6%	4.9%
2/25/2011	-5.5%	5.0%
3/24/2011	-4.4%	7.4%
4/21/2011	-16.0%	3.2%
5/27/2011	-12.0%	-0.4%
6/24/2011	-9.5%	5.0%
7/29/2011	-4.3%	8.1%
8/26/2011	12.0%	21.6%
9/30/2011	23.5%	29.6%
10/28/2011	0.4%	11.5%
11/25/2011	13.9%	24.0%
12/29/2011	9.9%	15.9%
1/27/2012	7.4%	16.6%
2/24/2012	7.8%	13.3%
3/23/2012	9.1%	15.2%
4/27/2012	10.5%	15.3%
5/25/2012	18.1%	22.8%
6/22/2012	20.0%	21.5%
7/27/2012	13.7%	17.0%
8/24/2012	9.8%	14.7%
9/28/2012	10.5%	12.1%
10/26/2012	14.9%	14.0%
11/23/2012	11.9%	13.9%
12/31/2012	10.4%	11.5%
1/25/2013	3.7%	5.6%
2/22/2013	5.2%	4.5%
3/28/2013	1.8%	0.6%

You will note the sad fact that this is the 28th straight portfolio to lose (that is hard to do... it ain't random) and remarkably the next 5 open portfolios are trailing as well.  Maybe we should buy a dartboard instead of using this?  Or maybe we should SHORT all these stocks?  Hmmm.  If you go back and see my posts the last few months, the words don't change... just the count.

Subsets

I also keep 2 subsets of the larger portfolios:  (1) dividend stocks (those with a yield per Yahoo of at least 2.6%) and (2) new stocks (those new to the tracking portfolios in past 12 months.  The dividend portfolio was most excellent, up about 34.7%.  The new portfolio was solid okay, up 13.5%.  Finally, I like to track cash as it is more "honest" than percentages as if you go up by 25% and then down by 25%, that is a different result than up by 5% then down by 5%.  So I track what you would have to day if you had spread $100,000 over the first twelve portfolios evenly.

 

Category	Value
Total	127,348
Total New	129,765
Total Dividend	291,383
Total Russell 3K	142,989

 Here are the dividend stocks and the new stocks from a year ago:

 

Stock	Initial Price	End Price	Percent Change	Mkt Cap	Yield
HRB	14.32	28.66	100.1%	4,268.42	4.9%
JCOM	24.50	40.17	64.0%	1,226.58	3.4%
PDLI	5.72	7.70	34.6%	882.78	10.5%
GNI	54.43	68.73	26.3%	97.00	27.6%
RTN	52.02	60.20	15.7%	17,824.77	3.4%
USMO	12.15	13.19	8.6%	282.98	8.2%
WSTG	12.86	12.04	-6.4%	60.68	6.2%

 Guess I was a blockhead for not buying HRB!

 

Stock	Initial Price	End Price	Percent Change	52 week low	Mkt Cap
LMLP	2.00	3.44	72.0%	N/A	54
CSGS	14.68	21.24	44.7%	14.17	548
USHS	8.71	12.50	43.5%	N/A	61
UTHR	44.96	62.20	38.3%	41.42	2,265
DENN	4.13	5.64	36.6%	3.88	384
LACO	2.32	3.11	34.1%	2.07	63
INSP	11.33	14.79	30.5%	N/A	437
CF	196.38	185.75	-5.4%	154.17	12,032
WSTG	12.86	12.04	-6.4%	10.69	61
CBRX	0.69	0.61	-11.6%	0.55	64
MBND	2.63	2.13	-19.0%	1.37	57
BODY	14.86	9.96	-33.0%	7.46	239
ASYS	7.28	3.72	-48.9%	2.90	66