MFI Top 200 December 22nd 2011

Mechanical Portfolios

As my faithful readers know, I create a "mechanical" portfolio, which I update weekly. There are actually two mechanical portfolios, which you can access via the links on the left margin of my blog. One is a top 30 and the second is top 50. A stock gets added to my mechanical portfolio if it is new to the MFI screen in the past 52 weeks. It then "closes" after it has been held a year. I have been creating mechanical portfolios since the start of 2008.

The mechanical portfolios have been vastly under-performing for the past year +. For the top 30, the open stocks are down about 12% while the S&P 500 is about flat. For the top 50, it is a bit better, down 6.7% versus the S&P up 1%. Since 2008, the mechanical portfolios have outperformed, but most of that was in 2008 and 2009. Hopefully we will get back there shortly.

Expedia Error?

There is only one new stock this week to the mechanical portfolios (you will see it in the top 50 screen) and it is EXPE. I wanted to point it out as I believe it is on the list by error. I got a bit excited when I saw Expedia and then the 4% dividend in Yahoo, thinking that I might have a cross-section stock between MFI and my new dividend approach. But looking them up, they just had a 1:2 split and they paid a $15.125 dividend. What does this mean? Well, they paid a 14 cent quarterly dividend. I am guessing that will continue, though perhaps not with the larger outflow of cash. That is 56 cents on a $30 stock... that is only 1.9%. Then the bigger issue is that I don't think they will be an MFI stock as MFI is looking at their cash at the last balance sheet. But with a $15.125 dividend, they actually have a ton less cash today. That is reflected in their stock price, but MFI formula will not adjust for that until next quarter. So Caveat emptor. Though I did add them to my mechanical portfolio as it is (ahem) mechanical.

Talking Ed Update

This will likely be my last commentary on the Ed's Talking Stock Blog (Ed's Talking Stock). It has become a train wreck too painful to watch. He started about 18 months ago and I give him credit for blogging virtually every day. He comes across very knowledgeable (he was a regular poster on Jim Jubak's web site). But he has transformed from a quasi-investor to a pure speculator/day-trader. And frankly he isn't very good. He posts his results daily. I started a Spiffy 50 portfolio to track versus him a year or so ago. And while my 50 has certainly not been very good, at least it isn't a train wreck. I show him down 25.5% versus my 9.6% drop. And he has traded multiple times daily, so his frictional costs are high as well (not sure if he includes that in his analysis.).

Top 200 MFI Stocks

Time for another top 200 analysis. I am not doing these as often as I am no longer a pure MFI investor. If you want to run yourself, I have posted the excel spreadsheet with instructions here ( Ranking of MFI Stocks).

Ticker	Rank	Date	Stock Price	Market Cap	Earnings Yield	ROIC	Yahoo Yield
LMLP	1	12/26	2.32	67	58%	16645%	0.0%
STV	2	12/26	3.37	199	222%	507%	0.0%
GCAP	3	12/26	7.15	278	41%	649%	0.7%
PDLI	4	12/26	6.16	1,029	25%	916083%	9.8%
GTAT	5	12/26	7.23	933	43%	421%	0.0%
DEPO	6	12/26	4.99	276	24%	3896%	0.0%
TNAV	7	12/26	8.07	363	33%	498%	0.0%
TIXC	8	12/26	-	-	20%	229%	0.0%
CYOU	9	12/26	23.34	1,245	28%	363%	0.0%
ESI	10	12/26	57.44	1,557	33%	270%	0.0%
MNTA	11	12/26	17.15	875	38%	248%	0.0%
BPI	12	12/26	22.64	1,276	25%	344%	0.0%
VECO	13	12/26	21.32	854	84%	174%	0.0%
GA	14	12/26	4.07	959	20%	607%	77.3%
NVMI	15	12/26	7.27	197	26%	246%	0.0%
USMO	16	12/26	14.15	319	23%	303%	7.1%
ASTX	17	12/26	1.66	143	29%	184%	0.0%
SPMD	18	12/26	3.28	50	22%	210%	0.0%
FRX	19	12/26	30.45	8,336	23%	194%	0.0%
UIS	20	12/26	20.27	1,026	27%	168%	0.0%
CMM	21	12/26	23.66	59	76%	124%	0.0%
CPLA	22	12/26	35.15	529	23%	190%	0.0%
XNY	23	12/26	1.94	113	260%	109%	0.0%
UEPS	24	12/26	7.89	356	28%	150%	0.0%
DELL	25	12/26	14.90	27,237	19%	231%	0.0%
GAME	26	12/26	4.14	1,179	29%	137%	0.0%
TSRA	27	12/26	16.79	862	21%	193%	0.0%
TNH	28	12/26	159.31	2,947	16%	559%	8.9%
MDF	29	12/26	7.82	330	17%	329%	0.0%
DJCO	30	12/26	65.00	90	35%	115%	0.0%
CTCM	31	12/26	8.91	1,407	18%	219%	7.4%
KLIC	32	12/26	9.38	696	43%	106%	0.0%
APOL	33	12/26	53.76	7,381	18%	222%	0.0%
RIMG	34	12/26	11.20	106	167%	96%	4.2%
AFAM	35	12/26	16.31	152	31%	112%	0.0%
DLB	36	12/26	31.27	3,460	17%	240%	0.0%
MBND	37	12/26	3.23	74	17%	253%	0.0%
CRAY	38	12/26	6.51	230	29%	112%	0.0%
GTIV	39	12/26	6.99	212	18%	191%	0.0%
ASYS	40	12/26	8.54	84	448%	87%	0.0%
EGY	41	12/26	6.09	352	45%	92%	0.0%
PWER	42	12/26	3.83	535	62%	88%	0.0%
LPS	43	12/26	15.11	1,276	18%	178%	2.7%
CECO	44	12/26	7.86	582	81%	83%	0.0%
SAVE	45	12/26	15.69	1,136	14%	629%	0.0%
XLS	46	12/26	9.12	1,678	28%	98%	1.1%
AMED	47	12/26	10.91	314	31%	91%	0.0%
MSFT	48	12/26	26.03	220,995	15%	339%	2.6%
CPIX	49	12/26	5.72	117	20%	122%	0.0%
AMAT	50	12/26	10.82	14,293	24%	101%	2.9%
AZN	51	12/26	46.29	62,908	19%	128%	5.9%
WSTG	52	12/26	11.80	54	19%	124%	6.7%
PETS	53	12/26	10.12	210	18%	148%	4.9%
SAI	54	12/26	12.43	4,089	20%	119%	0.0%
CREG	55	12/26	1.19	65	26%	89%	0.0%
LIWA	56	12/26	4.98	149	137%	74%	0.0%
GME	57	12/26	23.92	3,344	20%	107%	0.0%
SGU	58	12/26	4.84	320	18%	121%	6.4%
VG	59	12/26	2.48	598	16%	163%	0.0%
USNA	60	12/26	30.39	462	18%	126%	0.0%
SOHU	61	12/26	50.84	1,975	17%	144%	0.0%
SPRD	62	12/26	20.98	1,104	14%	330%	0.5%
MANT	63	12/26	32.45	1,194	19%	107%	1.3%
PWRD	64	12/26	11.31	574	39%	74%	0.0%
DLX	65	12/26	22.74	1,164	14%	237%	4.4%
STRA	66	12/26	97.87	1,140	16%	158%	4.3%
CHKE	67	12/26	12.62	106	13%	377%	6.3%
HRB	68	12/26	16.08	4,822	14%	306%	4.1%
CNTF	69	12/26	1.73	92	87%	64%	0.0%
NOC	70	12/26	58.49	16,336	18%	108%	14.4%
LRCX	71	12/26	36.93	4,581	21%	85%	0.0%
KLAC	72	12/26	48.51	8,239	17%	115%	2.5%
RTN	73	12/26	48.37	16,997	16%	147%	3.5%
KONG	74	12/26	4.11	175	39%	69%	0.0%
KFY	75	12/26	17.43	821	16%	129%	0.0%
EXPE	76	12/26	30.04	4,196	14%	233%	53.8%
CJES	77	12/26	22.00	1,140	20%	88%	0.0%
MPAA	78	12/26	7.39	91	15%	154%	0.0%
PRX	79	12/26	33.34	1,226	17%	104%	0.0%
NOK	80	12/26	4.92	18,271	18%	94%	11.0%
DEXO	81	12/26	1.44	72	15%	138%	0.0%
UNTD	82	12/26	5.64	501	14%	168%	7.1%
MEDW	83	12/26	12.95	107	12%	822%	0.0%
ESIC	84	12/26	4.00	133	15%	163%	0.0%
NTES	85	12/26	45.14	5,918	12%	424%	0.0%
SNDK	86	12/26	50.52	12,311	13%	219%	0.0%
CUB	87	12/26	43.95	1,175	13%	230%	0.6%
GNI	88	12/26	122.85	184	12%	822%	10.9%
DV	89	12/26	38.50	2,674	18%	90%	0.7%
ITT	90	12/26	20.20	1,884	54%	58%	8.1%
COOL	91	12/26	2.70	112	14%	162%	0.0%
CHOP	92	12/26	3.36	199	87%	57%	0.0%
PRSC	93	12/26	13.71	182	14%	144%	0.0%
CXDC	94	12/26	5.21	248	32%	60%	0.0%
RIMM	95	12/26	13.92	7,293	48%	57%	0.0%
LUK	96	12/26	23.55	5,760	14%	129%	1.1%
EDS	97	12/26	4.49	135	6229%	53%	0.0%
ICON	98	12/26	17.03	1,290	12%	295%	0.0%
OMPI	99	12/26	10.10	189	15%	120%	0.0%
OSIR	100	12/26	5.19	172	12%	585%	0.0%
ACAD	101	12/26	1.24	65	11%	2177%	0.0%
VCI	102	12/26	19.61	937	16%	101%	0.0%
INTX	103	12/26	11.20	212	16%	84%	7.0%
MKSI	104	12/26	28.36	1,503	21%	65%	1.6%
AIXG	105	12/26	12.21	1,219	29%	57%	6.8%
NATR	106	12/26	15.58	242	15%	104%	0.0%
CA	107	12/26	20.40	10,078	12%	329%	0.9%
MED	108	12/26	14.98	210	18%	74%	0.0%
LEA	109	12/26	40.58	4,294	21%	62%	1.3%
HITK	110	12/26	38.15	508	18%	75%	0.0%
ATVI	111	12/26	12.20	14,006	11%	753%	1.4%
EME	112	12/26	26.79	1,833	15%	104%	0.2%
TER	113	12/26	13.75	3,050	15%	97%	0.0%
DTLK	114	12/26	8.11	138	16%	86%	0.0%
CATO	115	12/26	24.77	715	20%	63%	3.5%
OSK	116	12/26	22.76	2,086	19%	67%	0.0%
TRW	117	12/26	32.53	4,307	24%	57%	0.0%
RDA	118	12/26	10.59	494	11%	341%	0.0%
STRI	119	12/26	8.44	350	31%	53%	0.0%
CEL	120	12/26	16.85	1,668	16%	76%	14.1%
HPQ	121	12/26	25.88	51,889	16%	84%	1.7%
ORCL	122	12/26	26.06	133,505	11%	465%	0.9%
ADI	123	12/26	36.21	11,071	13%	140%	2.7%
MYGN	124	12/26	20.31	1,768	12%	269%	0.0%
CHE	125	12/26	52.04	1,096	12%	181%	1.2%
LXK	126	12/26	34.00	2,652	23%	56%	0.8%
NSU	127	12/26	5.62	1,132	22%	57%	0.6%
CMED	128	12/26	2.92	77	18%	64%	0.0%
SHS	129	12/26	37.28	1,807	20%	60%	0.0%
CSGS	130	12/26	14.86	491	16%	78%	0.0%
CO	131	12/26	2.29	169	26%	53%	0.0%
CLCT	132	12/26	14.39	115	11%	695%	9.4%
CHRM	133	12/26	8.42	347	21%	56%	0.0%
CF	134	12/26	144.15	10,076	20%	58%	0.7%
CRWN	135	12/26	1.16	417	12%	214%	0.0%
CBPO	136	12/26	10.30	263	25%	53%	0.0%
GILD	137	12/26	39.29	30,698	12%	160%	0.0%
LPH	138	12/26	1.32	134	70%	46%	0.0%
CSCO	139	12/26	18.47	99,840	11%	231%	1.0%
ASIA	140	12/26	7.57	550	22%	54%	0.0%
LTXC	141	12/26	5.68	281	20%	56%	0.0%
MRVL	142	12/26	14.14	8,675	12%	142%	0.0%
WSTL	143	12/26	2.25	154	29%	49%	0.0%
GCI	144	12/26	13.55	3,297	19%	57%	1.8%
LO	145	12/26	113.67	15,575	11%	724%	4.6%
BBY	146	12/26	23.28	8,586	25%	51%	2.6%
YONG	147	12/26	3.89	192	61%	45%	0.0%
BID	148	12/26	29.01	1,956	17%	63%	0.8%
ENTR	149	12/26	5.48	487	15%	77%	0.0%
NSP	150	12/26	25.88	660	14%	85%	2.3%
ITRN	151	12/26	13.95	293	14%	83%	7.3%
INTC	152	12/26	24.40	130,296	14%	80%	3.3%
CVI	153	12/26	18.93	1,661	42%	45%	0.0%
EXPR	154	12/26	19.69	1,751	13%	98%	0.0%
NATH	155	12/26	21.05	109	12%	151%	0.0%
GD	156	12/26	66.36	24,081	15%	75%	2.8%
MRX	157	12/26	33.78	2,294	10%	827%	0.9%
VPHM	158	12/26	27.77	2,424	11%	265%	0.0%
MDP	159	12/26	32.94	1,488	13%	111%	3.5%
WU	160	12/26	18.47	11,583	10%	727%	1.7%
ERIC	161	12/26	9.97	32,263	15%	69%	3.5%
LINC	162	12/26	8.20	181	37%	45%	6.8%
LHCG	163	12/26	13.50	247	20%	53%	0.0%
IOSP	164	12/26	28.33	672	16%	68%	0.0%
FCX	165	12/26	38.32	36,596	28%	47%	2.6%
RPXC	166	12/26	12.40	607	10%	3316%	0.0%
DAR	167	12/26	13.31	1,566	16%	65%	0.0%
ALV	168	12/26	53.15	4,970	18%	55%	3.3%
MCK	169	12/26	78.73	19,683	11%	218%	1.0%
TGA	170	12/26	7.94	598	23%	48%	0.0%
SFUN	171	12/26	13.63	1,140	10%	1401%	7.3%
MOBI	172	12/26	3.29	107	15%	73%	0.0%
CACI	173	12/26	56.50	1,686	13%	103%	0.0%
STO	174	12/26	25.69	81,742	35%	44%	4.3%
GURE	175	12/26	1.97	68	399%	41%	0.0%
DISH	176	12/26	29.00	12,984	14%	81%	7.1%
PTNR	177	12/26	8.63	1,344	16%	62%	13.3%
PRIM	178	12/26	15.15	773	14%	81%	0.7%
SLI	179	12/26	16.10	74	25%	46%	0.0%
KRO	180	12/26	18.88	2,188	19%	52%	3.1%
ABC	181	12/26	37.42	10,155	11%	159%	1.2%
OVTI	182	12/26	12.63	760	40%	43%	0.0%
TNDM	183	12/26	10.69	340	20%	51%	0.0%
JCOM	184	12/26	28.06	1,304	10%	822%	1.5%
BMC	185	12/26	33.11	5,827	10%	656%	0.0%
LLY	186	12/26	41.64	46,380	14%	72%	4.7%
LMT	187	12/26	81.41	27,158	13%	89%	4.0%
TW	188	12/26	60.39	4,251	12%	122%	0.5%
ARO	189	12/26	15.58	1,263	18%	52%	0.0%
CMTL	190	12/26	29.26	853	14%	72%	3.5%
FLR	191	12/26	50.74	8,787	12%	98%	1.0%
RBCN	192	12/26	9.65	226	46%	42%	0.0%
SEE	193	12/26	17.05	3,033	15%	62%	3.1%
MCO	194	12/26	34.54	7,910	11%	280%	1.6%
PBI	195	12/26	18.64	3,769	12%	102%	8.0%
BLC	196	12/26	6.24	649	13%	84%	1.6%
HNH	197	12/26	10.09	128	22%	46%	0.0%
UFPT	198	12/26	15.10	106	18%	52%	0.0%
DNB	199	12/26	74.75	3,670	10%	953%	1.9%
BKE	200	12/26	40.57	1,921	12%	92%	7.7%

Perusing the list, VECO seems interesting. They are priced as if they'll never make money again. Then SGU definitely has my interest. I looked at them a long time ago. They pay a solid dividend.

Here is how the official top 50 show up on my list. NSU is the only outlier at #127.

Ticker	Mkt Cap	Date	My Ranking
AFAM	146.59	21-Dec	35
AMED	316.52	21-Dec	47
ASYS	79.41	21-Dec	40
APOL	6,804.48	21-Dec	33
AMAT	13,321.20	21-Dec	50
ASTX	153.24	21-Dec	17
HRB	4,566.36	21-Dec	68
CPLA	496.67	21-Dec	22
CECO	513.96	21-Dec	44
CHKE	105.17	21-Dec	67
CRAY	229.46	21-Dec	38
CPIX	115.64	21-Dec	49
DELL	26,386.50	21-Dec	25
DLX	1,144.91	21-Dec	65
DLB	3,409.53	21-Dec	36
XLS	1,622.44	21-Dec	46
EXPE	3,752.10	21-Dec	76
FRX	7,947.71	21-Dec	19
GTAT	906.47	21-Dec	5
GME	3,257.94	21-Dec	57
GTIV	209.66	21-Dec	39
ESI	1,400.34	21-Dec	10
KLAC	7,818.21	21-Dec	72
KFY	782.24	21-Dec	75
KLIC	669.57	21-Dec	32
LMLP	65.78	21-Dec	1
LPS	1,227.41	21-Dec	43
MDF	325.61	21-Dec	29
MSFT	216,641.60	21-Dec	48
MNTA	864.41	21-Dec	11
MPAA	91.35	21-Dec	78
MBND	70.21	21-Dec	37
NSU	1,158.65	21-Dec	127
NVMI	180.67	21-Dec	15
PDLI	857.64	21-Dec	4
PETS	206.81	21-Dec	53
PWER	392.54	21-Dec	42
RTN	16,291.89	21-Dec	73
SAI	4,218.17	21-Dec	54
SNDK	11,567.85	21-Dec	86
SAVE	1,125.67	21-Dec	45
STRA	1,109.47	21-Dec	66
TNAV	339.01	21-Dec	7
TSRA	856.98	21-Dec	27
USMO	316.75	21-Dec	16
USNA	452.21	21-Dec	60
UIS	868.87	21-Dec	20
EGY	339.86	21-Dec	41
VECO	826.22	21-Dec	13
VG	527.71	21-Dec	59