I am closing the screen from a year ago a couple hours early as I am bored at home as we head into the New Year's Eve weekend and the all-important Cowboys Giants game, though I sincerely either team could win any post-season games. I don't think the early closing will have any material impact.
This marks the twelfth straight portfolio to lose to the Russell 3000. The old-reliable benchmark was essentially flat, while MFIers were down about 11%. The 11 open portfolios are not faring much better, down on average about 5% vs flatish for the benchmark. If they were to all close today, the losing streak would go from 12 straight months to 20 straight. I have always commented that MFI is streaky and that still shows. I am sure at some point 10 to 15 straight MFI portfolios will win... it is not an approach for the weak of stomach.
Interestingly, five of the fifty stocks were bought out (CNU, MFW, PPD, CNXT and PRM) during the year, so if you had known which ones were the buyouts, you could have done quite well (up an average of 34%). Here are all 50 stocks in descending order:
| Stock | Initial Price | End Price | Percent Change | 52 week low | Mkt Cap |
| CBST | 21.88 | 39.77 | 82% | 20.95 | 1,266 |
| PRM | 4.07 | 7.10 | 74% | N/A | 186 |
| AGX | 9.32 | 15.27 | 64% | 8.20 | 126 |
| VPHM | 17.81 | 27.93 | 57% | 14.62 | 1,350 |
| LO | 77.79 | 114.94 | 48% | 72.40 | 12,391 |
| CNXT | 1.63 | 2.40 | 47% | N/A | 132 |
| HRB | 11.95 | 16.27 | 36% | 11.68 | 3,634 |
| APOL | 39.98 | 54.08 | 35% | 34.43 | 5,835 |
| CNU | 4.74 | 6.38 | 35% | N/A | 283 |
| MRX | 26.73 | 33.29 | 25% | 24.97 | 1,576 |
| GILD | 36.58 | 40.56 | 11% | 34.45 | 29,553 |
| RTN | 44.83 | 49.07 | 9% | 38.35 | 16,886 |
| MFW | 23.79 | 26.00 | 9% | N/A | 447 |
| TNAV | 7.25 | 7.84 | 8% | 7.20 | 307 |
| DELL | 13.69 | 14.76 | 8% | 12.99 | 26,152 |
| PDLI | 5.76 | 6.16 | 7% | 4.66 | 869 |
| PPD | 62.45 | 66.50 | 6% | N/A | 588 |
| CMTL | 27.77 | 29.11 | 5% | 23.51 | 768 |
| IDCC | 42.27 | 44.18 | 5% | 34.61 | 1,840 |
| DLX | 22.67 | 22.83 | 1% | 17.50 | 1,181 |
| TER | 13.71 | 13.49 | -2% | 10.37 | 2,546 |
| IPXL | 21.08 | 20.58 | -2% | 14.46 | 1,278 |
| SNDK | 51.24 | 49.43 | -4% | 32.24 | 11,692 |
| MSFT | 27.26 | 26.02 | -5% | 23.65 | 238,965 |
| FRX | 31.85 | 30.28 | -5% | 28.47 | 9,134 |
| UNTD | 6.29 | 5.54 | -12% | 4.80 | 565 |
| PRSC | 16.19 | 13.73 | -15% | 8.35 | 208 |
| USMO | 17.16 | 14.13 | -18% | 12.29 | 392 |
| ELNK | 8.40 | 6.43 | -23% | 5.97 | 931 |
| GTAT | 9.34 | 7.11 | -24% | 6.40 | 1,376 |
| CSGS | 19.22 | 14.57 | -24% | 12.13 | 645 |
| UIS | 26.40 | 19.65 | -26% | 13.77 | 1,103 |
| TNDM | 14.93 | 10.75 | -28% | 9.02 | 478 |
| CHKE | 18.21 | 11.91 | -35% | 11.39 | 167 |
| ARO | 24.05 | 15.60 | -35% | 9.16 | 2,232 |
| ASTX | 2.72 | 1.76 | -35% | 1.51 | 158 |
| OSK | 35.97 | 21.34 | -41% | 14.07 | 3,195 |
| MPAA | 12.99 | 7.49 | -42% | 6.70 | 157 |
| LINC | 15.13 | 7.96 | -47% | 6.55 | 344 |
| LPS | 29.80 | 14.85 | -50% | 12.91 | 2,696 |
| VECO | 43.66 | 20.98 | -52% | 20.35 | 1,714 |
| COCO | 5.12 | 2.15 | -58% | 1.24 | 441 |
| AFAM | 39.68 | 16.57 | -58% | 12.50 | 355 |
| CRME | 6.29 | 2.61 | -59% | 1.86 | 392 |
| PWER | 10.13 | 3.83 | -62% | 3.68 | 1,060 |
| CECO | 21.07 | 7.82 | -63% | 6.22 | 1,685 |
| NEP | 5.81 | 2.00 | -66% | 1.85 | 170 |
| AMED | 34.90 | 10.66 | -69% | 9.12 | 949 |
| SCEI | 6.98 | 1.06 | -85% | 0.65 | 111 |
| YLWPF.PK | 6.38 | 0.18 | -97% | 8.00 | 3,201 |
Here is how all the portfolios (open and closed) have fared:
| Date | Total | IWV |
| 1/6/2006 | 16.0% | 10.9% |
| 2/17/2006 | 21.2% | 14.6% |
| 3/29/2006 | 13.0% | 9.6% |
| 4/7/2006 | 10.3% | 12.1% |
| 5/12/2006 | 20.4% | 18.6% |
| 5/31/2006 | 29.2% | 23.3% |
| 6/30/2006 | 22.4% | 20.0% |
| 7/31/2006 | 19.7% | 17.3% |
| 8/31/2006 | 13.0% | 13.3% |
| 9/28/2006 | 12.7% | 14.6% |
| 10/27/2006 | 10.3% | 12.0% |
| 11/29/2006 | -0.3% | 4.8% |
| 12/28/2006 | -6.9% | 3.4% |
| 1/26/2007 | -10.2% | -6.6% |
| 2/27/2007 | -3.7% | -1.0% |
| 3/26/2007 | -9.8% | -5.5% |
| 4/27/2007 | -10.9% | -5.0% |
| 5/29/2007 | -11.5% | -6.3% |
| 7/3/2007 | -30.0% | -15.6% |
| 7/30/2007 | -19.9% | -11.5% |
| 8/30/2007 | -12.5% | -8.7% |
| 9/27/2007 | -19.0% | -18.2% |
| 11/2/2007 | -40.4% | -34.3% |
| 11/28/2007 | -40.1% | -38.3% |
| 12/28/2007 | -36.3% | -40.0% |
| 1/25/2008 | -36.4% | -35.9% |
| 2/26/2008 | -51.7% | -41.5% |
| 3/24/2008 | -40.9% | -36.8% |
| 4/25/2008 | -25.6% | -31.0% |
| 5/28/2008 | -22.2% | -33.6% |
| 7/2/2008 | -11.7% | -25.3% |
| 7/29/2008 | -10.5% | -20.9% |
| 8/29/2008 | -13.8% | -17.9% |
| 9/26/2008 | -4.3% | -10.0% |
| 10/31/2008 | 18.7% | 13.9% |
| 11/26/2008 | 50.9% | 27.7% |
| 12/26/2008 | 48.9% | 32.3% |
| 1/23/2009 | 59.3% | 36.4% |
| 2/27/2009 | 92.8% | 55.6% |
| 3/27/2009 | 85.8% | 48.1% |
| 4/24/2009 | 69.7% | 45.8% |
| 5/29/2009 | 31.8% | 22.8% |
| 6/29/2009 | 21.3% | 24.0% |
| 7/29/2009 | 19.5% | 15.9% |
| 8/28/2009 | 7.4% | 8.8% |
| 9/25/2009 | 12.6% | 12.4% |
| 10/30/2009 | 22.7% | 18.3% |
| 11/27/2009 | 24.3% | 13.6% |
| 12/31/2009 | 23.7% | 18.1% |
| 1/22/2010 | 19.0% | 20.6% |
| 2/26/2010 | 18.6% | 23.6% |
| 3/25/2010 | 10.0% | 15.4% |
| 4/23/2010 | 7.1% | 11.4% |
| 5/28/2010 | 19.3% | 25.4% |
| 6/29/2010 | 16.7% | 25.7% |
| 7/29/2010 | 5.4% | 20.1% |
| 9/2/2010 | 7.3% | 10.1% |
| 9/24/2010 | -4.3% | 0.3% |
| 10/29/2010 | -2.9% | 10.4% |
| 11/26/2010 | -8.5% | 1.4% |
| 1/3/2011 | -11.4% | 0.1% |
| 1/28/2011 | -12.5% | -0.1% |
| 2/25/2011 | -13.0% | -3.8% |
| 3/24/2011 | -11.7% | -3.3% |
| 4/21/2011 | -14.9% | -5.6% |
| 5/27/2011 | -11.4% | -5.4% |
| 6/24/2011 | -9.1% | -0.9% |
| 7/29/2011 | -6.9% | -2.2% |
| 8/26/2011 | 3.8% | 7.9% |
| 9/30/2011 | 12.7% | 12.3% |
| 10/28/2011 | -4.6% | -1.6% |
| 11/25/2011 | 10.8% | 9.2% |
| Grand Total | 4.4% | 3.9% |
| Closed | 6.3% | 4.7% |
| Open | -5.1% | 0.6% |
Starting with $100,000
As my readers know, I don't like to just look at percentages as they can be misleading. Up 50% and then down 50% is worse financially than going up 5% and then down 5% (do the math). So I track how you'd be doing if you started with a hypothetical $100k spread over first 12 portfolios with the proceeds rolled into the new portfolios as the mature. It isn't exactly pretty:
| Category | Value |
| Total | 107,760 |
| Total New | 104,963 |
| Total Dividend | 222,187 |
| Total Russell 3K | 111,420 |
As the astute reader will note, The MFI system would have you at $107,760 today. While the Russell 3000 would be better at $111,420.
The extremely astute reader will note I have stuck in two other portfolios, "new" and "dividend". New are stocks in the tracking portfolios that were not in prior 12 portfolios. And Dividend stocks are those with yields (per yahoo) of 2.6% or greater. The dividend stocks from a year ago did pretty well, up about 8.7%. But the new ones struggled, down 25.7% (not helped by Yellow Trucking).
Here are the dividend stocks, you can see PRM and LO were the big winners:
| Stock | Initial Price | End Price | Percent Change |
| PRM | 4.07 | 7.10 | 74% |
| LO | 77.79 | 114.94 | 48% |
| HRB | 11.95 | 16.27 | 36% |
| PDLI | 5.76 | 6.16 | 7% |
| DLX | 22.67 | 22.83 | 1% |
| UNTD | 6.29 | 5.54 | -12% |
| USMO | 17.16 | 14.13 | -18% |
| ELNK | 8.40 | 6.43 | -23% |
| CHKE | 18.21 | 11.91 | -35% |
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