跑在中國股票

For those of you not fluent in Chinese, today (as my headline states clearly) was a run on my Chinese stocks. They were virtually all in the news today. Here is what I saw, in order of the news:

UTA: I knew the minute I started to read their 10Q (oddly, most of these companies sent out their Qs before their press releases, many US companies have the 10Q follow the earnings release by a couple days) that it wasn't going to be a good day. UTA had run up pretty well (about 35%) pre-earnings and their numbers didn't knock the cover off the ball (Universal Travel Group 3Q profit edges up 2 pct). They ended up down 15% on the day. Probably a bit extreme (IMHO). If you step back,

1. they will make $1.20 per share in 2009 (about a 10 p/e).
2. they have $23m in cash against their 161m market cap and
3. They grew YoY revenues by 45% and expect 2009 to be 20% above 2008 despite selling off their air freight operations.

KHD: They had the most excellent of earnings (KHD Humboldt Wedag International Ltd. Reports 2009 Third Quarter and Nine-Month Results). Analysts expected a nickel and 100m of revenues. It was more like $141m of revenues and 25 cents of earnings. They appear to be putting the hard times and cancelled contracts in the rear view mirror and gave a reasonably bullish outlook on the future:

"It has also been a year since we began to see the impact of the dramatic slowdown in our main cement market and started to develop our restructuring plans. We are making good progress with the implementation of our new operating structure and now have a clear direction for KHD to create a business that is sustainable over the longer term."

CEO Jouni Salo continued, "We are also pleased to note that cement order intake was more than three times the level of the second quarter of 2009 and 19 percent higher than the cement order intake in the third quarter of 2008."

Based upon this plethora of good news, KHD jumped about 20% today, and I respectfully think they have substantial more upside. I also knew their earnings were good right away.

LIWA: This was a strange one. I thought their quarter was spectacular (Lihua International Reports Third Quarter 2009 Financial Results). Oddly, the stock was down 4.5% and is a great buy (IMHO) at $8.70. I suspect they'll soon be joining the MFI lists. Look at the numbers:

1. sales up YoY 186%
2. gross profit was 9.8m versus 5.2m a year ago.
3. their cash is up to $38m from 28m in past quarter.
4. they will increase their capacity to make copper wire from 18,000 tons to 25,000 ton by june 2010.
5. their operating income for 3 quarters 2009 is 21m with 8m this quarter.
   

If you assume the 4th quarter will equal the 3rd quarter, you get $29m of operating income for the year. With a 230m market cap, I estimated an earnings yield around 14%. Then ROIC is over 100%.

CHCG - Argh! They announced after the bell this evening and I frankly thought the numbers (CHINA 3C GROUP Files SEC form 10-Q, Quarterly Report) sucked. They actually lost $1m in the 3rd quarter, which is NOT a good trend line (they made $8 last year). Perhaps it is already baked in the 60 cent share price, but I am looking forward to placing them in my rear view mirror. I will hold them through my date, but I am quickly losing interest. Probably down another 10% tomorrow, I should have sold them at 84 cents a couple weeks ago.

CSKI - good news here (CHINA SKY ONE MEDICAL, INC. Files SEC form 10-Q, Quarterly Report). Here are some quickies that I picked up:

1. cash is up from 40m to 56m since 12/31
2. revenues are up YoY 29.7m to 43.2m for the quarter
   
3. revenues are up 65.8m to 100m for 9 months (note the 3rd quarter is much more than a third)
4. they made 74 cents a share and now have $1.76 for 3/4 of year.
5. Stock is at $14.68.
6. market cap is $244m

wow, is there a cheaper stock out there? Unless you believe the numbers are fictitious, they are stunning. I just wish I had bought more a week ago when they were a mere $12.39. I think they go up at least 10% tomorrow, at least until the short selling hedge funds publish more scare articles. 17% of shares are short, or 1.8m shares. I don't think I'd want to be short tomorrow.

Late news alert, one more stock reported earnings this evening:

CEU: I don't know, it is getting past my bedtime, and sometimes it is difficult to judge, but the earnings look pretty darned good to me (China Education Alliance, Inc. Announces Strong Third Quarter 2009 Financial Results).

1. revenues up 43%
2. eps was 16 cents vs one lonely analyst at 11 cents
3. $39m in cash versus under $24m 12/31/08
4. fast growing business

They're up 4% in late night trading, I see CSKI is up about 5%. Except for the CHCG fiasco, might be a decent day tomorrow. I did not buy anything today, though I see to my chagrin that SNTA is already up 20% since hitting my mechanical portfolio. Here is the MP (top 30) right now:

Symbol		Original	Current	Dividend	S&P O	S&P D	Stock Chg	S&P Chg	Diff
BIDZ	11/22/08	2.39	2.56	-	79.52	2.31	7.1%	42.8%	-35.6%
KBR	11/22/08	10.45	20.82	0.10	79.52	2.31	100.2%	42.8%	57.4%
OPTV	11/22/08	0.94	1.55	-	79.52	2.31	64.9%	42.8%	22.1%
IBAS	11/22/08	1.21	2.31	-	79.52	2.31	90.9%	42.8%	48.2%
Vclk	11/29/08	6.17	10.30	-	90.09	2.31	66.9%	26.0%	40.9%
DIVX	12/8/08	4.37	5.40	-	87.93	2.31	23.6%	29.1%	-5.5%
MAXY	12/8/08	5.80	5.71	-	87.93	2.31	-1.6%	29.1%	-30.6%
ESIC	12/13/08	1.13	1.54	-	88.99	2.31	36.3%	27.6%	8.7%
MSO	12/27/08	2.80	5.28	-	87.16	1.59	88.6%	29.4%	59.2%
TRMS	12/27/08	1.03	2.96	-	87.16	1.59	187.4%	29.4%	158.0%
WFR	12/27/08	13.43	13.37	-	87.16	1.59	-0.4%	29.4%	-29.9%
AHCI	1/3/09	1.15	2.80	-	92.96	1.59	143.5%	21.3%	122.1%
CKSW	1/3/09	1.99	5.76	-	92.96	1.59	189.4%	21.3%	168.1%
COH	2/14/09	13.97	35.99	-	82.76	1.59	157.6%	36.3%	121.3%
DELL	2/21/09	8.41	15.96	-	77.42	1.59	89.8%	45.7%	44.1%
SOLR	2/21/09	4.22	4.74	-	77.42	1.59	12.3%	45.7%	-33.4%
DECK	2/28/09	41.27	98.95	-	73.93	1.59	139.8%	52.6%	87.2%
FWLT	2/28/09	15.04	33.73	-	73.93	1.59	124.3%	52.6%	71.7%
HCKT	2/28/09	2.56	3.12	-	73.93	1.59	21.9%	52.6%	-30.7%
MWW	2/28/09	6.59	14.97	-	73.93	1.59	127.2%	52.6%	74.6%
PTIE	2/28/09	4.53	5.00	-	73.93	1.59	10.4%	52.6%	-42.2%
TRLG	2/28/09	10.22	20.57	-	73.93	1.59	101.3%	52.6%	48.7%
qlti	3/6/09	1.41	3.88	-	68.92	1.59	175.2%	63.7%	111.5%
exbd	3/6/09	12.96	23.53	0.44	68.92	1.59	85.0%	63.7%	21.3%
FIX	3/13/09	9.73	11.63		76.09	1.59	19.5%	48.2%	-28.7%
DBTK	3/13/09	6.65	9.89	-	76.09	1.59	48.7%	48.2%	0.5%
LOOP	3/13/09	5.77	10.11	-	76.09	1.59	75.2%	48.2%	27.0%
PRO	3/27/09	4.29	8.61	-	81.61	1.03	100.7%	37.5%	63.2%
ACN	4/9/09	27.71	39.92	-	85.81	1.03	44.1%	30.8%	13.3%
INFI	4/16/09	5.83	6.41	-	87.08	1.03	9.9%	28.9%	-18.9%
TSRA	5/1/09	14.52	24.79	-	87.89	1.03	70.7%	27.7%	43.0%
RST	5/1/09	29.83	16.55	-	87.89	1.03	-44.5%	27.7%	-72.2%
ULCM.pk	5/1/09	2.18	2.36	-	87.89	1.03	8.3%	27.7%	-19.4%
TYPE	5/1/09	3.80	8.15	-	87.89	1.03	114.5%	27.7%	86.8%
CRAY	5/1/09	3.98	7.45	-	87.89	1.03	87.2%	27.7%	59.5%
INT	5/8/09	41.90	54.74	-	92.98	1.03	30.6%	20.7%	9.9%
IPHS	5/15/09	15.03	25.55	-	88.71	1.03	70.0%	26.5%	43.5%
GNI	5/29/09	86.75	90.19	1.80	92.53	1.03	6.0%	21.3%	-15.3%
UTA	5/29/09	7.90	11.77	-	92.53	1.03	49.0%	21.3%	27.7%
FRX	6/5/09	23.66	28.97	-	94.55	1.03	22.4%	18.7%	3.7%
ONTY	6/11/09	2.60	4.88	-	95.08	1.03	87.7%	18.0%	69.6%
VM	6/11/09	4.24	4.78	-	95.08	1.03	12.7%	18.0%	-5.3%
BPI	6/19/09	16.74	15.95	-	92.04	0.51	-4.7%	21.4%	-26.1%
MTXX	7/2/09	5.77	4.03	-	91.84	0.51	-30.2%	21.6%	-51.8%
JTX	7/2/09	5.74	4.27	-	91.84	0.51	-25.6%	21.6%	-47.3%
GIGM	7/24/09	4.98	4.36	-	98.06	0.51	-12.4%	13.9%	-26.4%
CBI	7/31/09	13.95	20.33	-	98.81	0.51	45.7%	13.1%	32.7%
BR	7/31/09	17.27	22.93	-	98.81	0.51	32.8%	13.1%	19.7%
LO	7/31/09	73.72	79.77	-	98.81	0.51	8.2%	13.1%	-4.9%
ITWO	8/7/09	14.36	18.55	-	101.20	0.51	29.2%	10.4%	18.8%
BKE	8/14/09	26.54	29.84	2.00	100.79	0.51	20.0%	10.8%	9.1%
GTLS	8/14/09	20.73	17.95	-	100.79	0.51	-13.4%	10.8%	-24.3%
PRIM	8/14/09	6.95	7.78	-	100.79	0.51	11.9%	10.8%	1.1%
SEPR	8/14/09	18.12	23.00	-	100.79	0.51	26.9%	10.8%	16.1%
PVSW	8/14/09	5.00	5.10	-	100.79	0.51	2.0%	10.8%	-8.8%
CEU	8/21/09	5.10	5.79	-	102.96	0.51	13.5%	8.5%	5.0%
cytk	8/28/09	3.04	3.40	-	103.38	0.51	11.8%	8.1%	3.8%
jcom	8/28/09	22.14	21.25	-	103.38	0.51	-4.0%	8.1%	-12.1%
AMED	9/4/09	35.00	38.87	-	102.06	0.51	11.1%	9.5%	1.6%
MIPS	9/18/09	3.72	4.04	-	106.72	0.51	8.6%	4.7%	3.9%
MHP	9/25/09	23.67	31.87	-	104.45	-	34.6%	6.5%	28.2%
AGX	10/16/09	12.50	12.52	-	108.89	-	0.2%	2.1%	-2.0%
BBND	10/30/09	3.70	3.81	-	103.56	-	3.0%	7.4%	-4.4%
FLR	10/30/09	44.42	45.28	-	103.56	-	1.9%	7.4%	-5.5%
RGR	10/30/09	10.62	11.40	-	103.56	-	7.3%	7.4%	0.0%
RTN	10/30/09	45.28	49.80	-	103.56	-	10.0%	7.4%	2.6%
VRSK	10/30/09	27.43	28.85	-	103.56	-	5.2%	7.4%	-2.2%
immu	11/6/09	3.61	3.62	-	107.13	-	0.3%	3.8%	-3.5%
cbst	11/6/09	17.60	17.76	-	107.13	-	0.9%	3.8%	-2.9%
snta	11/6/09	3.20	3.87	-	107.13	-	20.9%	3.8%	17.1%
CNU	11/13/09	3.10	3.17	-	109.62	-	2.3%	1.5%	0.8%
						Totals	23.5%	6.3%	17.2%
64.9% of stocks beat the S&P 500 Benchmark						Closed	-5.7%	-21.6%	15.9%
S&P C			111.21			Open	43.3%	25.2%	18.1%