Saturday, November 28, 2009

Weekend Update 11/28/09

First, I will note that the November 26th, 2008 portfolio has come of age. It is officially the best portfolio ever, rising by almost 51% in total. It trounced the benchmark which was up a snappy 28%. Here are the 50 stocks (over 100m) in descending order:

CTCM $4.04 $14.68 263.4%
BARE $4.50 $13.0 188.9%
TRA $14.65 $38.97 166.0%
TKTM $4.0 $10.58 164.5%
MLNX $7.20 $18.17 152.4%
HLF $18.10 $42.41 134.3%
IBAS $1.38 $2.99 116.7%
MRX $11.39 $23.61 107.3%
TWLL $5.60 $11.27 101.3%
COH $17.80 $35.29 98.3%
GTLS $8.81 $16.83 91.0%
NTRI $13.10 $24.56 87.5%
BVF $7.60 $14.14 86.1%
UEPS $10.15 $18.71 84.3%
KNXA $6.32 $11.26 78.2%
CF $52.89 $83.94 58.7%
LOOP $6.20 $9.77 57.6%
EME $15.35 $23.96 56.1%
CSKI $10.43 $16.20 55.3%
MSB $8.28 $12.33 48.9%
ELOS $6.77 $10.05 48.4%
DAR $5.07 $7.38 45.6%
TRLG $12.81 $18.59 45.1%
MTW $7.11 $9.90 39.2%
KBR $13.56 $18.83 38.9%
HSII $20.79 $28.50 37.1%
FIX $8.29 $11.35 36.9%
FWLT $22.50 $30.35 34.9%
FRX $23.07 $30.56 32.5%
MSO $3.42 $4.52 32.2%
KFY $12.49 $16.32 30.7%
MWW $11.47 $14.92 30.1%
ELNK $6.39 $8.10 26.8%
KG $9.43 $11.95 26.7%
KHD $9.65 $11.61 20.3%
AYI $27.12 $32.31 19.1%
USMO $8.86 $10.22 15.3%
VRGY $9.0 $10.25 13.9%
MLHR $14.38 $15.17 5.5%
SWIR $8.44 $8.62 2.1%
PPD $40.11 $39.02 -2.7%
PRGX $4.79 $4.61 -3.8%
HCKT $2.84 $2.71 -4.6%
TTWO $12.05 $11.24 -6.7%
GIGM $4.79 $4.07 -15.0%
WFR $15.50 $12.06 -22.2%
VPHM $11.47 $7.51 -34.5%
SCMP $5.50 $3.47 -36.9%
EGY $6.54 $4.11 -37.2%
PACR $9.86 $2.91 -70.5%

wow, some real bargains a year ago. Many still on the lists even with the appreciation.
This was the 7th straight portfolio to beat the benchmark. I list all the portfolios and their performances below. You'll note that the most recent ones are underperforming (again).

Date Total IWV
1/6/2006 16.0% 10.9%
2/17/2006 21.2% 14.6%
3/29/2006 13.0% 9.6%
4/7/2006 10.3% 12.1%
5/12/2006 20.4% 18.6%
5/31/2006 29.2% 23.3%
6/30/2006 22.4% 20.0%
7/31/2006 19.7% 17.3%
8/31/2006 13.0% 13.3%
9/28/2006 12.7% 14.6%
10/27/2006 10.3% 12.0%
11/29/2006 -0.3% 4.8%
12/28/2006 -6.9% 3.4%
1/26/2007 -10.2% -6.6%
2/27/2007 -3.7% -1.0%
3/26/2007 -9.8% -5.5%
4/27/2007 -10.9% -5.0%
5/29/2007 -11.5% -6.3%
7/3/2007 -30.0% -15.6%
7/30/2007 -19.9% -11.5%
8/30/2007 -12.5% -8.7%
9/27/2007 -19.0% -18.2%
11/2/2007 -40.4% -34.3%
11/28/2007 -40.1% -38.3%
12/28/2007 -36.3% -40.0%
1/25/2008 -36.4% -35.9%
2/26/2008 -51.7% -31.1%
3/24/2008 -40.9% -29.5%
4/25/2008 -25.6% -22.1%
5/28/2008 -22.2% -33.6%
7/2/2008 -11.7% -25.3%
7/29/2008 -10.5% -11.5%
8/29/2008 -13.8% -17.9%
9/26/2008 -4.3% -10.0%
10/31/2008 18.7% 13.9%
11/26/2008 50.9% 27.7%
12/26/2008 43.1% 28.7%
1/23/2009 50.2% 34.6%
2/27/2009 76.1% 51.4%
3/27/2009 55.3% 36.2%
4/24/2009 33.1% 27.3%
5/29/2009 21.8% 19.2%
6/29/2009 17.2% 18.3%
7/29/2009 11.5% 11.9%
8/28/2009 4.6% 5.8%
9/25/2009 0.4% 3.7%
10/30/2009 2.4% 5.3%
Grand Total 1.9% 0.9%

Even with the higher average performance (a single percentage point), in actual dollars both portfolios are down about 6% as if you go down by 20% and then up by 25% you are at the same spot in the end. Interestingly, the 6% down almost exactly matches my real life portfolio. As I have often said, if you stay in this long enough, you should begin to approach the broader averages... which sadly are down.

Now here is a quick peek at the mechanical top 50 portfolio, which continues to soundly beat the benchmarks.

Symbol
Original Current Dividend S&P O S&P D Stock Chg S&P Chg Diff
AIRT 11/29/08 6.08 9.42 - 90.09 2.31 54.9% 24.2% 30.8%
BSQR 11/29/08 2.48 2.22 - 90.09 2.31 -10.5% 24.2% -34.7%
CKSW 11/29/08 2.20 5.20 - 90.09 2.31 136.4% 24.2% 112.2%
IILG 11/29/08 5.30 11.24 - 90.09 2.31 112.1% 24.2% 87.9%
PBSO.PK 11/29/08 0.39 0.50 - 90.09 2.31 28.2% 24.2% 4.0%
DIVX 12/8/08 4.37 5.02 - 87.93 2.31 14.9% 27.2% -12.4%
GSIT 12/8/08 2.94 3.40 - 87.93 2.31 15.6% 27.2% -11.6%
HGRD 12/8/08 1.35 4.24 - 87.93 2.31 214.1% 27.2% 186.8%
ISIL 12/8/08 7.92 12.92 0.12 87.93 2.31 64.6% 27.2% 37.4%
MAXY 12/8/08 5.80 5.58 - 87.93 2.31 -3.8% 27.2% -31.0%
PVSW 12/8/08 3.80 4.87 - 87.93 2.31 28.2% 27.2% 0.9%
DDMX 12/13/08 11.13 17.70 - 88.99 2.31 59.0% 25.7% 33.3%
PSOF 12/13/08 2.74 5.88 - 88.99 2.31 114.6% 25.7% 88.9%
ITWO 12/27/08 5.61 18.27 - 87.16 1.59 225.7% 27.5% 198.1%
JOYG 12/27/08 21.95 53.52 - 87.16 1.59 143.8% 27.5% 116.3%
TRMS 12/27/08 1.03 3.32 - 87.16 1.59 222.3% 27.5% 194.8%
CTGX 1/3/09 3.18 6.28 - 92.96 1.59 97.5% 19.6% 77.9%
PMD 1/3/09 6.44 6.00 - 92.96 1.59 -6.8% 19.6% -26.4%
HPY 1/24/09 8.54 10.93 - 83.11 1.59 28.0% 33.7% -5.8%
HLIT 1/31/09 5.15 5.24 - 82.83 1.59 1.7% 34.2% -32.4%
HGT 1/31/09 13.06 16.10 0.36 82.83 1.59 26.0% 34.2% -8.2%
CNU 2/8/09 1.96 3.06 - 86.98 1.59 56.1% 27.8% 28.3%
SJT 2/8/09 19.05 17.56 0.29 86.98 1.59 -6.3% 27.8% -34.1%
SGU 2/8/09 2.55 3.85 0.07 86.98 1.59 53.6% 27.8% 25.9%
TC 2/8/09 4.33 11.82 - 86.98 1.59 173.0% 27.8% 145.2%
bioc 2/14/09 3.72 3.93 - 82.76 1.59 5.6% 34.3% -28.7%
FORR 2/14/09 17.56 24.76 - 82.76 1.59 41.0% 34.3% 6.7%
ZYXI.OB 2/14/09 1.20 1.33 - 82.76 1.59 10.8% 34.3% -23.5%
FRD 2/21/09 4.95 5.75 - 77.42 1.59 16.2% 43.6% -27.4%
SOLR 2/21/09 4.22 4.83 - 77.42 1.59 14.5% 43.6% -29.1%
MTXX 2/21/09 17.90 3.98 - 77.42 1.59 -77.8% 43.6% -121.3%
TYPE 2/21/09 3.02 7.66 - 77.42 1.59 153.6% 43.6% 110.1%
PTIE 2/21/09 5.41 4.94 - 77.42 1.59 -8.7% 43.6% -52.3%
PDO 2/21/09 3.19 4.46 - 77.42 1.59 39.8% 43.6% -3.8%
SAPE 2/21/09 3.38 7.38 - 77.42 1.59 118.3% 43.6% 74.8%
VDSI 2/21/09 5.25 6.63 - 77.42 1.59 26.3% 43.6% -17.3%
IGTE 2/21/09 2.99 9.32 - 77.42 1.59 211.7% 43.6% 168.1%
DECK 2/28/09 41.27 93.86 - 73.93 1.59 127.4% 50.4% 77.1%
KTII 2/28/09 55.48 94.16 - 73.93 1.59 69.7% 50.4% 19.4%
INT 2/28/09 29.01 53.36 - 73.93 1.59 83.9% 50.4% 33.6%
ICAD 2/28/09 0.90 1.51 - 77.42 1.59 67.8% 43.6% 24.2%
EXBD 3/6/09 12.96 21.25 - 68.92 1.59 64.0% 61.3% 2.7%
DISH 3/6/09 9.27 20.65 - 68.92 1.59 122.8% 61.3% 61.5%
QLTI 3/6/09 1.41 4.82 - 68.92 1.59 241.8% 61.3% 180.6%
SRDX 3/6/09 16.87 22.53 - 68.92 1.59 33.6% 61.3% -27.7%
INFI 4/16/09 5.83 5.62 - 87.08 1.03 -3.6% 27.0% -30.6%
CRAY 5/1/09 3.98 6.90 - 87.89 1.03 73.4% 25.8% 47.5%
TWX 5/1/09 22.84 30.85 - 87.89 1.03 35.1% 25.8% 9.2%
RST 5/1/09 29.83 17.46 - 87.89 1.03 -41.5% 25.8% -67.3%
ulcm 5/1/09 8.72 9.00 - 87.89 1.03 3.2% 25.8% -22.6%
AAV 5/15/09 3.41 5.69 - 88.71 1.03 66.9% 24.7% 42.2%
AMED 5/29/09 30.43 38.19 - 92.53 1.03 25.5% 19.5% 6.0%
UTA 5/29/09 7.90 10.29 - 92.53 1.03 30.3% 19.5% 10.7%
PFE 6/5/09 14.51 18.25 - 94.55 1.03 25.8% 17.0% 8.8%
VM 6/5/09 4.55 5.50 - 94.55 1.03 20.9% 17.0% 3.9%
ONTY 6/11/09 2.60 4.60 - 95.08 1.03 76.9% 16.3% 60.6%
BPI 6/19/09 16.74 16.33 - 92.04 0.51 -2.4% 19.6% -22.0%
GME 6/19/09 22.95 25.32 - 92.04 0.51 10.3% 19.6% -9.3%
SHAW 7/10/09 23.69 28.60 - 87.96 0.51 20.7% 25.1% -4.4%
RTN 7/24/09 45.39 51.63 - 98.06 0.51 13.7% 12.3% 1.5%
CBZ 7/31/09 6.54 6.87 - 98.81 0.51 5.0% 11.4% -6.4%
CBI 7/31/09 13.95 17.97 - 98.81 0.51 28.8% 11.4% 17.4%
DRC 7/31/09 29.11 28.46 - 98.81 0.51 -2.2% 11.4% -13.6%
JEC 7/31/09 40.98 35.58 - 98.81 0.51 -13.2% 11.4% -24.6%
NPSP 7/31/09 3.89 3.09 - 98.81 0.51 -20.6% 11.4% -32.0%
ASGN 7/31/09 4.23 5.97 - 98.81 0.51 41.1% 11.4% 29.7%
AGX 8/7/09 12.35 12.28 - 98.81 0.51 -0.6% 11.4% -12.0%
BBND 8/7/09 4.00 3.65 - 98.81 0.51 -8.8% 11.4% -20.2%
LHCG 8/7/09 24.55 30.81 - 98.81 0.51 25.5% 11.4% 14.1%
RGR 8/7/09 11.45 11.10 - 98.81 0.51 -3.1% 11.4% -14.5%
PRIM 8/7/09 6.95 7.46 - 100.79 0.51 7.3% 9.2% -1.9%
SEPR 8/7/09 18.12 23.00 - 100.79 0.51 26.9% 9.2% 17.7%
CEU 8/21/09 5.10 6.01 - 102.96 0.51 17.8% 6.9% 10.9%
CYTK 8/21/09 3.04 3.25 - 102.96 0.51 6.9% 6.9% 0.0%
CMFO 8/28/09 4.55 6.24 - 102.96 0.51 37.1% 6.9% 30.2%
NAVR 9/4/09 1.79 2.22 - 102.60 0.51 24.0% 7.3% 16.7%
WTW 9/11/09 26.00 27.46 - 104.77 0.51 5.6% 5.1% 0.6%
MIPS 9/18/09 3.72 3.81 - 106.72 0.51 2.4% 3.1% -0.7%
ESI 10/30/09 90.35 92.10 - 103.56 - 1.9% 5.8% -3.9%
VRSK 10/30/09 27.43 26.99 - 103.56 - -1.6% 5.8% -7.4%
APOL 11/6/09 55.99 55.76 - 107.13 - -0.4% 2.3% -2.7%
CBST 11/6/09 17.60 16.61 - 107.13 - -5.6% 2.3% -7.9%
SNTA 11/6/09 3.20 3.88 - 107.13 - 21.3% 2.3% 19.0%
IMMU 11/6/09 3.61 3.40 - 107.13 - -5.8% 2.3% -8.1%
PBH 11/13/09 6.95 6.81 - 109.62 - -2.0% 0.0% -2.0%
IDCC 11/20/09 23.56 23.69 - 109.43 - 0.6% 0.1% 0.4%






Top 50 Portfolio







Totals 18.0% 0.7% 17.4%
51.% of stocks beat the S&P 500 Benchmark
Closed 2.0% -14.4% 16.3%
S&P C

109.57

Open 43.6% 24.6% 19.0%

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