It Is What It Is

Another week in the books. Not a bad day. I was a day late (and a dollar short) on TZOO which I mentioned yesterday as on my short list. It shot up 15% today on takeover rumors (UPDATE - Travelzoo shares surge on takeover talk). I don't think I'll be very verbose today. Just post my charts. Ugly as they are, as the title states, "It is what it is"




Then here are my current holdings and performance:

Current Portfolio
Stock	Purchase Date	Cost	Current	Gain
TGB	4/16/2007	$2.64	$5.25	98.9%
ASEI	10/5/2006	$45.85	$62.66	37.1%
TCK	8/16/2007	$36.50	$47.71	30.7%
THO	3/26/2007	$40.30	$44.99	16.8%
MSTR	9/14/2007	$69.55	$79.34	14.1%
VALU	5/29/2007	$44.01	$49.27	12.6%
LRCX	7/3/2007	$47.51	$53.26	12.1%
DGX	3/17/2007	$52.11	$57.77	11.2%
KSW	5/10/2007	$6.48	$7.03	8.6%
CHKE	7/17/2007	$36.70	$38.36	6.6%
AXCA	9/21/2007	$19.53	$20.77	6.3%
UNTD	5/1/2007	$14.51	$15.01	5.8%
TGIS	11/30/2006	$9.18	$9.14	1.7%
BBSI	9/7/2007	$24.13	$23.83	-1.2%
KFY	9/28/2007	$16.74	$16.51	-1.4%
JTX	4/9/2007	$28.70	$27.96	-1.5%
VSNT	7/27/2007	$19.54	$19.21	-1.7%
KSWS	7/27/2007	$23.94	$22.91	-4.1%
PNCL	2/9/2007	$17.07	$16.02	-6.2%
NXG	12/20/2006	$3.04	$2.84	-6.6%
AEO	7/10/2007	$28.42	$26.31	-6.7%
WSTG	5/15/2007	$14.98	$13.52	-8.1%
UG	6/13/2007	$12.09	$10.20	-15.6%
RAIL	2/16/2007	$45.54	$38.20	-15.8%
HGG	8/3/2007	$13.48	$10.50	-22.1%
PACR	1/3/2007	$25.46	$19.05	-23.9%
WNR	7/27/2007	$53.64	$40.58	-24.2%
NOOF	4/27/2007	$8.59	$6.13	-25.7%
EGY	12/13/2006	$6.42	$4.57	-28.8%
CHCG.OB	6/5/2007	$5.93	$3.87	-34.7%
GVHR	9/12/2007	$15.91	$10.25	-34.9%
IVAC	11/23/2006	$23.52	$15.20	-35.4%
USHS	6/25/2007	$11.22	$7.15	-36.2%
Gain/Loss Open Positions ($):				($21,947)
Gain/Loss Open Positions (%):				-3.6%
Gain/Loss Closed Positions ($):				$50,513
Gain/Loss Closed Positions (%):				9.2%
Total Gain/Loss ($):				$28,566
Benchmark Gain/Loss ($):				$73,382
Annual IRR:				5.5%
Total Gain/Loss (%):				5.0%

Tough Sledding

Not as fun posting when things are so-so. I can tell that staying the course will be difficult. Right now I am about 8 to 9% behind the benchmarks after more than 18 months in. That is real money. I haven't given up, but I am disheartened. I have had some success stories, but you have to look at portfolio in it's entirety. And I know it isn't just me, many of my tracking portfolios have fallen on hard times as well.

I have seen where people are commenting on volatility on the Yahoo board. There is no doubt that in this recent blood-letting that small cap stocks have generally fared much worse than big stocks.

In my current portfolio, I have 33 stocks right now. Only 8 have market caps 1b or more.
AXCA, LRCX, DGX, TCK, THO and UNTD are all in the green. Only AEO and WNR are in the red. So 75% of my $1b stocks are in the green.

Of the 25 stocks under $1b, 18 are underwater. I haven't crunched the numbers, but that seems statistically significant. 75% of stocks > $1b in green, only 28% of stocks under $1b in the green.

Does that mean we should not buy the small stocks? I don't think so. Perhaps more balance might smooth things out a bit in a given year, though I don't know that it would enhance long-term returns.

ASEI (one of my 8 small stocks in the green) hits its anniversary next week. It is up a nifty 38%. I will likely have $ for 2 stocks at that time. I am thinking about GIB, VPHM, TZOO or KG.

Still another 8 to 10 days to decide. Take care everyone!

A Couple of Changes

Things appear to be getting more "normal". I did make a couple of changes to my portfolio these past two days. I sold FTO. It was early, but FTO was actually a stock that I had rolled forward for a 2nd year, so it was a LT capital gain. I rationalized the sale. FTO (and all the refiners) seem to have seasonality in they drop in the non-driving season and rise in the summer. I felt $46.60 was a good price and I'll likely be able to buy them back in Dec/Jan much cheaper. I did make 35% on FTO.

Then I bought 2 stocks in the top 25: AXCA and KFY. AXCA is a pharmaceutical that seems to be blowing and going. KFY (like many companies in the staffing arena such as HSII, BBSI and GVHR) is way off its 52 week high ($27.13 and I bought at $16.74... actually virtually the 52 week low) yet KFY just had a great quarter.

I do have ASEI coming up for sale in a couple of weeks. I may buy back into VPHM or else GIB looks interesting as well. These Canadian companies have the advantage of the strong Canadian dollar as well.

Speaking of Canadian companies, my natural resource group: TGB, TCK, FDG & NXG all had big days. TGB is now up 85% for me. TCK is up 32% in about a month. There is hope.

Contest Standings

I have taken the 44 portfolios from the stock contest and entered them into Excel. Here are the standings (now including dividends) and then how individual stocks have performed:

Rank	Owner	Total
1	Jeff	152,147
2	fuzzywalnut	151,786
3	Ronrego	151,443
4	Rutroh	150,547
5	Viper Global Index	150,233
6	traehnam	149,633
7	Ankit	149,598
8	kwr446	148,075
9	wootleader	145,592
10	ZeroMotion	143,712
11	AK	143,266
12	Gunnski	143,073
13	pw17pw	142,839
14	SP500 (not index)	142,764
15	Risky	142,627
16	mike	142,592
17	MFI>2b	141,231
18	TedW	141,154
19	Valueorama	140,918
20	mfi>50m	140,753
21	Ayron	139,953
22	bhunji	139,663
23	marshgerda	139,096
24	jamiemb	138,539
25	kjstark	137,950
26	jared	137,629
27	coveredcall	137,577
28	Srini ML	137,376
29	ATLsparty	137,256
30	Roberts1001	137,200
31	chimera	136,257
32	maggiespharma	135,575
33	jchilib	134,968
34	wwe	134,521
35	magicformulainvestor	133,987
36	lpj158	133,703
37	Rharmelink	133,534
38	jaywysocki	132,781
39	DukeCrow	130,796
40	djdk	128,874
41	VA	127,674
42	Hup1psh	125,943
43	Chris_G	124,262
44	jachangmd	116,882
	Grand Total	139,227

Rank	Stock	Average of Change	Count of Stock
1	TPX	36.5%	1
2	AVCI	34.6%	11
3	ICFI	31.0%	9
4	BVSN.ob	20.9%	1
5	STEC	20.4%	2
6	FCX	19.5%	2
7	PCU	17.9%	9
8	WEYS	16.7%	1
9	EPIQ	15.7%	9
10	PBT	14.8%	8
11	WDC	13.4%	5
12	PETS	13.2%	1
13	MM	12.4%	2
14	VALU	12.1%	10
15	PG	12.0%	1
16	ASPV	11.4%	11
17	CVX	10.9%	1
18	HBMFF.pk	10.5%	1
19	USPH	10.1%	2
20	DGX	9.1%	1
21	ARTL	8.9%	1
22	XOM	8.7%	2
23	GD	8.2%	1
24	FCGI	7.8%	6
25	CHKE	7.7%	15
26	HLF	7.5%	7
27	VWO	7.3%	1
28	HURC	7.1%	2
29	HRS	6.6%	2
30	FDG	6.5%	6
31	MMM	5.5%	1
32	RNO	5.5%	2
33	LMT	5.1%	1
34	BPT	4.2%	12
35	UEPS	4.0%	2
36	HNR	3.3%	1
37	TCK	3.2%	11
38	AMAT	2.9%	3
39	ROK	2.8%	2
40	AMED	2.8%	1
41	CAI	2.8%	2
42	GNI	2.6%	4
43	AXCA	2.2%	10
44	GRP	2.0%	1
45	CJR	2.0%	1
46	WNI	1.7%	2
47	AEO	1.4%	13
48	BBY	1.4%	5
49	UTMD	1.3%	3
50	GYMB	1.2%	2
51	MOCO	1.1%	3
52	VTI	0.7%	1
53	wmco	0.7%	7
54	LRCX	0.5%	10
55	THE	0.5%	3
56	GIB	0.4%	3
57	VGK	-1.1%	1
58	AMEN	-1.1%	4
59	EGY	-1.5%	16
60	PFE	-1.8%	4
61	NUE	-1.9%	13
62	DEBS	-2.1%	1
63	SCSS	-2.3%	4
64	MOT	-2.4%	1
65	RAI	-2.4%	2
66	FTO	-2.6%	8
67	VPL	-2.8%	1
68	CXR	-3.2%	1
69	BBBY	-3.3%	1
70	BEBE	-3.4%	6
71	BJS	-3.5%	5
72	MSFT	-3.9%	1
73	ATI	-4.6%	1
74	IUSA	-4.7%	1
75	GGG	-4.7%	4
76	SPLS	-4.8%	5
77	USNA	-5.0%	1
78	DPZ	-5.4%	14
79	VLO	-6.2%	2
80	MDP	-7.2%	2
81	MRO	-7.6%	2
82	GLBL	-7.6%	9
83	NXG	-7.8%	3
84	DLX	-8.0%	4
85	VRGY	-8.1%	1
86	ACN	-8.1%	5
87	ABC	-8.3%	1
88	LNCR	-9.0%	4
89	ALOY	-9.0%	5
90	CRWS	-9.1%	1
91	KSW	-9.2%	5
92	MLHR	-9.4%	2
93	HAS	-9.5%	1
94	BBSI	-9.6%	5
95	ESV	-10.3%	1
96	HW	-10.5%	2
97	AVCA	-10.6%	1
98	GDI	-10.9%	1
99	PTEN	-11.1%	7
100	CONN	-11.3%	1
101	WSTG	-11.8%	10
102	CRYP	-11.9%	1
103	RHI	-12.1%	1
104	MAS	-12.4%	1
105	IPSU	-12.4%	2
106	MEOH	-12.5%	6
107	HERO	-13.2%	3
108	GLYT	-13.2%	1
109	WIRE	-13.3%	2
110	ppd	-13.4%	1
111	LRW	-13.8%	13
112	PACR	-13.8%	8
113	HOC	-13.9%	6
114	HHS	-14.0%	2
115	UNTD	-14.1%	2
116	KYCN.OB	-14.1%	1
117	MYL	-14.6%	1
118	ZZ	-14.6%	1
119	PBH	-14.6%	1
120	XRTX	-14.9%	2
121	KNL	-15.2%	1
122	JAKK	-15.4%	5
123	LUFK	-15.5%	1
124	GCI	-15.7%	4
125	PNCL	-15.7%	13
126	KSWS	-16.0%	3
127	FRX	-16.2%	9
128	CSGS	-16.4%	2
129	TSO	-16.6%	3
130	GW	-16.9%	5
131	PMTI	-17.6%	3
132	DBRN	-17.8%	1
133	USHS	-17.9%	2
134	TRLG	-18.2%	1
135	EGLT	-18.7%	8
136	RAIL	-18.8%	15
137	PDS	-18.9%	1
138	HOG	-19.5%	3
139	VSE	-20.0%	1
140	UG	-20.4%	1
141	ISNS	-20.6%	1
142	NPLA	-22.2%	3
143	WNR	-22.5%	4
144	LXK	-22.7%	5
145	NOOF	-24.0%	6
146	OPMR	-24.3%	6
147	HWCC	-25.5%	1
148	tzoo	-25.6%	2
149	TGIS	-26.5%	14
150	DFZ	-27.7%	1
151	IVAC	-29.4%	10
152	NCI	-29.4%	1
153	BVF	-30.0%	10
154	AVR	-32.2%	2
155	KFY	-33.2%	4
156	USMO	-36.9%	2
157	VPHM	-37.0%	13
158	XJT	-37.3%	3
159	GVHR	-40.0%	1
160	KG	-41.9%	7
161	GYI	-42.1%	2
162	RURL	-43.5%	2
163	SHOO	-43.7%	4
164	HRSH	-43.8%	1
165	DEIX	-46.3%	1
166	ARO	-52.6%	2
167	MTEX	-54.5%	3
168	CLHI.PK	-57.9%	4
169	won	-64.7%	1
170	HLYS	-68.5%	2
	Grand Total	-7.5%	662