I spent some time last night creating an excel workbook to help me with "Buy When Fearful" tracking. It actually works pretty well. Totally automated except for having to input:
- Stocks you want to track
- Start date of tracking
- Purchases
It will flag for you automatically whenever a stock is 10% below high since "start date" or 10% below last buy. Here is a table showing what it looks like:
| Ticker | Current Price | Max Price | Owned | Price | Ratio |
| SYNT | 30.07 | 30.07 | #N/A | #N/A | 1.00 |
| DIN | 74.98 | 80.67 | #N/A | #N/A | 0.93 |
| HRB | 27.85 | 28.55 | #N/A | #N/A | 0.98 |
| CASA | 20.02 | 26.28 | 4/30/18 | 23.39 | 0.86 |
| MSGN | 19.20 | 23.20 | 5/1/18 | 20.70 | 0.93 |
| TUP | 43.24 | 46.28 | #N/A | #N/A | 0.93 |
| KLAC | 111.07 | 111.07 | #N/A | #N/A | 1.00 |
| DISCA | 24.03 | 24.15 | #N/A | #N/A | 1.00 |
| AUPH | 5.60 | 5.60 | #N/A | #N/A | 1.00 |
| ANW | 2.90 | 3.45 | 5/11/18 | 2.90 | 1.00 |
| CSCO | 45.93 | 46.30 | #N/A | #N/A | 0.99 |
| WDC | 78.80 | 87.91 | 5/1/18 | 79.79 | 0.99 |
| FTSI | 19.25 | 19.97 | #N/A | #N/A | 0.96 |
| AGX | 38.15 | 41.40 | #N/A | #N/A | 0.92 |
| TGNA | 10.66 | 11.13 | #N/A | #N/A | 0.96 |
| RHI | 63.15 | 63.15 | #N/A | #N/A | 1.00 |
| SLSDF | 0.33 | 0.33 | #N/A | #N/A | 1.00 |
| EGC | 6.73 | 7.48 | #N/A | #N/A | 0.90 |
| CELG | 84.54 | 92.08 | 5/10/18 | 82.38 | 1.03 |
| THO | 96.04 | 108.55 | #N/A | #N/A | 0.88 |
| RGR | 61.00 | 61.00 | #N/A | #N/A | 1.00 |
| MD | 46.09 | 52.69 | 4/27/18 | 46.92 | 0.98 |
| ROSE | 7.25 | 8.15 | #N/A | #N/A | 0.89 |
| EVC | 4.15 | 5.00 | 5/10/18 | 4.25 | 0.98 |
So the "owned" column only gets something if it has already dropped 10% and you bought it. Then the entire row gets shaded red if it is either 10% below max price since start date (April 24th in this example) or 10% below when you bought.
So CASA, which has been in freefall, would have had you buying on 4/30 at $23.39 as it had dropped 10% from 4/24. But It would be signalling to buy a second tranche now as it has fallen 14% rom the 4/30 price.
I am going to run this for a few months in experimental mode. But I may then roll it out as an investing approach. I don't know that parameters are optimized, but I like the formula approach and taking my biases out of equation.
Like even right now, my hackles go up at buying:
- ROSE, which just filed a S-1 for a secondary
- CASA, which also diluted shareholders and had just ok earnings
- EGC, which is the third name to dilute shareholders with a complex deal and
- THO, which has been steadily dropping since I bought in Feb (but no dilution I am aware of)
stocks that have fallen, but I made "hypothetical" purchase are:
| GILD |
| AMID |
| CAAP |
| CASA |
| MSGN |
| ANW |
| WDC |
| CELG |
| MD |
| EVC |
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