Saturday, May 26, 2018

MFI Diary Memorial Weekend 2018 Update

MFI Diary Memorial Weekend 2018 Update

Happy Memorial Day Weekend everyone.  Beautiful time of year here in New England.  Still haven't had to turn the AC on... probably when we hit June.  I have a quote that expresses how the month of May has been for my investing, "OCTOBER: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The other are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February."

I know Greenblatt agreed, saying investing on your own was like running through a TNT factory with a lit match.  It seems the two of them are right more than they're wrong.  I am saying it has been tough sledding for my portfolios these past couple weeks.  Few things seem to be going right.

Welcome to the occasionally amusing MFI Diary.  This is a diary I have been maintaining since February 2006 (damn, that is a long time) tracking my "experiences" in investing real money in the methods discussed in "The Little Book That Beats The Markets".  I also spend some time discussing my MFI (Magic Formula Investing) Index and various MFI tracking portfolios that I have created over time.

I did create a guide recently for new readers to my blog that point you to some fascinating/interesting
posts. I encourage you to give it a whirl (Guide To New Readers).  (PS - I continue to struggle to make this link work.  You can instead go to Blog archive on left margin of this blog and you will find a link in October 2017). Of course, I have to have a disclaimer - I am just a non-economist, non-CFA with a spreadsheet and not a stock advisor (pretty clear as I ended 1st quarter in the red overall).  You should do your own due diligence before acting on anything you read here.

And as a free bonus, I also discuss how my non-MFI investments are doing (generally poorly) in 2nd half of my blog.

Onwards.


Last Week

2nd straight week I have been bummed about how my investing is faring.  I do think I am going to step back and no more transactions until July 1st when new MFI tranche is due.  I don't think I am adding much value.

It is not a disaster, but after pulling even/passing the benchmark the middle of last week - I have slid right back down to where I was.  And it isn't exactly like the benchmarks are knocking the cover off the ball.  Then also circle May 31st on your investing calendars.  Kevin Muir, the Macrotourist, believes that Fed unwinding is causing some of the bigger down days... and May 31st is next big scheduled day for Fed to unwind.  Here is how I have fared for the week, quarter and year:


 Component   YTD   2nd Quarter   Week Change 
 Overall  -0.9% +2.2% -0.4%
 MFI Select  -3.9% -5.6% -0.3%
 MFI Formula  +2.9% +1.6% -0.2%
 MFI Combined  -0.7% -2.2% -0.3%
 Miscellaneous  -2.8% +7.5% -1.4%
 Dividend  -0.2% +3.1% -0.1%
 Dividend Index  -3.1% +0.5% +0.2%
 R3K Index  +2.8% +3.5% +0.3%
 Blended Index  +0.1% +2.2% +0.3%
 MFI Index  +11.3% +4.2% +0.1%
 GARIX  +0.2% +0.1% +0.8%


Well, you can look at table and see my angst.  I was down 0.4% during the week while Blended Index was up 0.3%.  These stomach churns will happen and I know I have conviction in the way I am investing.  But it still bums me out.  But I still sleep very well at night (with windows open).

MFI Select

I have two portfolios of real money in MFI approaches.  The first is MFI Select, which I began in August of 2012 (I had quit MFI in July 2011).  It consist of 4 tranches of 5 stocks apiece.  The stocks are all held for a year and all have MFI qualities, though not necessarily from official screen.  THis approach has worked very well, but is definitely in a slump right now (you can see from table above, down 5.6% this quarter).

Here are the 4 open (and underperforming) tranches:

8/15/2017  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 GHC  $591.10 $598.20 $3.81 1.8% 12.6%
 ICHR  $19.80 $24.88 $0.00 25.7% 12.6%
 MD  $43.00 $46.77 $0.00 8.8% 12.6%
 SIMO  $43.05 $48.98 $0.90 15.9% 12.6%
 RHI  $44.15 $63.62 $1.04 46.5% 12.6%
 Totals  19.7% 12.6%
11/15/2017  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 MSGN  $16.67 $19.95 $0.00 19.7% 7.4%
 CELG  $100.60 $78.63 $0.00 -21.8% 7.4%
 EVC  $5.78 $4.30 $0.10 -23.9% 7.4%
 SIMO  $46.88 $48.98 $0.60 5.8% 7.4%
 VIAB  $24.41 $27.50 $0.40 14.3% 7.4%
 Totals  -1.2% 7.4%
2/1/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AGX  $43.55 $39.15 $0.25 -9.5% -2.2%
 CASA  $18.81 $19.89 $0.00 5.7% -2.2%
 KLAC  $109.80 $114.32 $1.34 5.3% -2.2%
 THO  $136.33 $94.92 $0.37 -30.1% -2.2%
 WDC  $87.74 $86.35 $0.50 -1.0% -2.2%
 Totals  -5.9% -2.2%
5/2/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CAAP  $12.19 $11.71 $0.00 -3.9% 3.8%
 TGNA  $10.51 $10.64 $0.00 1.3% 3.8%
 DISCA  $23.85 $22.34 $0.00 -6.3% 3.8%
 FTSI  $19.39 $19.96 $0.00 2.9% 3.8%
 ICHR  $21.96 $24.88 $0.00 13.3% 3.8%
 Totals  1.4% 3.8%

Bit of a struggle.  The November tranche has really hit the skids.  I always harp on idea that my goal is to avoid "stinkers" - stocks that drop 30% or more.  Well, THO, EVC and CELG are all moving in that direction... that largely explains my struggles.

Here is table showing in aggregate all my tranches:

 Category/Tranche   August   November   February   May   Total 
 Initial Investment         25,000             25,000           25,000        25,000         100,000
 Current Tranche  19.7% -1.2% -5.9% 1.4% 1.8%
 Previous Tranche  -0.1% 42.6% 74.9% -3.6% 27.7%
 Tranche -2  2.8% 8.0% 10.7% 19.1% 10.2%
 Tranche -3  11.2% 69.4% -14.3% -25.2% 10.3%
 Tranche -4  41.4% 14.2% 8.5% 18.3% 20.6%
 Tranche -5  14.1% 43.7% 78.3% 33.0% 42.3%
 MFI Overall Gain  120.7% 323.5% 202.0% 37.1% 170.8%
 Current Balance         55,165           105,886           75,507        34,267         270,824
 R3K Current Tranche  12.6% 7.4% -2.2% 3.8% 5.4%
 R3K Overall Gain  115.7% 120.1% 97.3% 84.7% 104.5%
 R3K Balance         53,925             55,023           49,336        46,172         204,456
 Annualized IRR  14.7% 29.8% 23.1% 6.4% 18.5%

The current tranches struggling (at +1.8% vs 5.4% for benchmark).  But still overall have to be happy with 18.5% annualized IRR.

Here is what $100,000 invested in 2012 would look like:


 Date   Differential   MFI Value   R3K Value 
1/1/2013 -1.78%        102,798            104,575
4/1/2013 -0.43%        106,804            107,234
7/1/2013 4.29%        114,888            110,597
10/1/2013 19.67%        138,655            118,990
1/1/2014 26.63%        157,138            130,503
4/1/2014 30.38%        162,991            132,616
7/1/2014 39.23%        177,971            138,740
10/1/2014 29.38%        168,321            138,944
1/1/2015 28.17%        174,306            146,140
4/1/2015 29.95%        178,565            148,612
7/1/2015 62.69%        211,437            148,743
10/1/2015 43.12%        181,175            138,052
1/1/2016 63.33%        209,514            146,186
4/1/2016 47.34%        195,770            148,430
7/1/2016 50.41%        201,092            150,680
10/1/2016 42.98%        198,563            155,582
1/1/2017 45.60%        209,503            163,936
4/1/2017 55.70%        229,473            173,735
7/1/2017 60.28%        239,060            178,782
10/1/2017 75.60%        262,489            186,886
1/1/2018 92.19%        291,114            198,926
4/1/2018 96.21%        293,665            197,451
Current 66.37%        270,824            204,456
Quite a pullback (293 to 270) in Q2.  We soldier on.  Here are how individual stocks did during the week:

 Stock   Last Week   Current   Dividend   Change 
 ICHR              24.32         24.88                       -   2.3%
 SIMO              49.25         48.98                       -   -0.5%
 CASA              20.76         19.89                       -   -4.2%
 MSGN              20.05         19.95                       -   -0.5%
 VIAB              27.24         27.50                       -   1.0%
 DISCA              22.57         22.34                       -   -1.0%
 AGX              39.10         39.15                       -   0.1%
 KLAC            109.39       114.32                       -   4.5%
 FTSI              21.44         19.96                       -   -6.9%
 CAAP              11.24         11.71                       -   4.2%
 WDC              84.75         86.35                       -   1.9%
 TGNA              11.04         10.64                       -   -3.6%
 RHI              64.37         63.62                       -   -1.2%
 THO            101.44         94.92                       -   -6.4%
 CELG              78.37         78.63                       -   0.3%
 EVC                4.30            4.30                       -   0.0%
 MD              47.02         46.77                       -   -0.5%
 GHC            594.00       598.20                       -   0.7%
CASA continues melt down, now down 32% in second quarter.  FTSI dropped with the entire energy sector.  I do believe that is a head fake, time will tell. And THO has just been a bad pick.  What was I thinking... RVs?

MFI Formula

This is my 2nd real money MFI portfolio.  It uses a formula approach (larger market caps with dividends) plus a random number generator.  It has generally been neck and neck with benchmark.  I started in October 2014 - so keep in mind this has been a stretch where Value stocks have been out-of-favor.

7/1/2017  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CSCO  $30.98 $43.26 $0.91 42.6% 14.2%
 GME  $20.95 $12.67 $1.14 -34.1% 14.2%
 HPQ  $17.60 $21.91 $0.40 26.7% 14.2%
 RGR  $60.70 $63.15 $0.99 5.7% 14.2%
 SYNT  $16.21 $31.46 $0.00 94.1% 14.2%
 Totals  27.0% 14.2%
10/1/2017  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 DIN  $43.14 $65.69 $1.60 56.0% 9.3%
 GILD  $82.85 $67.38 $1.09 -17.4% 9.3%
 GME  $20.50 $12.67 $0.76 -34.5% 9.3%
 HPQ  $20.22 $21.91 $0.27 9.7% 9.3%
 OMC  $74.80 $71.96 $1.15 -2.3% 9.3%
 Totals  2.3% 9.3%
1/2/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AMGN  $177.11 $178.24 $2.64 2.1% 2.2%
 GME  $18.06 $12.67 $0.38 -27.7% 2.2%
 GILD  $71.64 $67.38 $0.57 -5.2% 2.2%
 HRB  $26.34 $27.93 $0.24 6.9% 2.2%
 OMC  $72.81 $71.96 $0.60 -0.3% 2.2%
 Totals  -4.8% 2.2%
4/3/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AMGN  $166.46 $178.24 $1.32 7.9% 5.6%
 VIAB  $29.20 $27.50 $0.00 -5.8% 5.6%
 GILD  $72.71 $67.38 $0.00 -7.3% 5.6%
 TUP  $47.32 $44.97 $0.00 -5.0% 5.6%
 EGOV  $13.29 $15.25 $0.00 14.8% 5.6%
 Totals  0.9% 5.6%

Wow, that July tranche has been fabulous... I will be sad to see it retire, that will make my open tranches look a lot worse.  SYNT is almost a double.  I also have almost 3 stinkers, all GME.  (I tend to get more repeats in MFI Formula as I use random number generator).  GME does report earnings pretty soon (May 31st) - expectations are so low, hopefully we get a pop.


 Category/Tranche   October   January   April   July   Total 
 Initial Investment      249,820        249,939     250,180      249,728         999,667
 Current Tranche  2.3% -4.8% 0.9% 27.0% 5.2%
 Previous Tranche  7.0% 16.5% 21.3% 26.7% 17.7%
 Tranche -2  5.5% 9.3% 25.2% -12.5% 6.9%
 Tranche -3  0.5% 11.0% -0.2% 0.0% 2.8%
 MFI Overall Gain  16.0% 34.5% 52.9% 40.8% 36.1%
 Current Balance      289,839        336,167     382,421      351,727      1,360,154
 R3K Current Tranche  9.3% 2.2% 5.6% 14.2% 7.8%
 R3K Overall Gain  46.7% 37.9% 36.8% 32.9% 38.6%
 R3K Balance      366,390        344,641     342,314      332,008      1,385,353
 Annualized IRR  4.1% 9.1% 14.4% 12.5% 10.0%

You can see even with great July tranche, my current tranches are trailing benchmark by 2 1/2 points.  It has been a struggle here of late as well.

 Date   Differential   Value   R3K Value 
10/1/2014 0.00%        100,000            100,000
1/1/2015 -0.33%        100,664            100,995
4/1/2015 5.09%        106,781            101,695
7/1/2015 4.82%        106,423            101,604
10/1/2015 6.39%        100,703              94,312
1/1/2016 -3.36%          96,830            100,012
4/1/2016 0.34%        102,371            101,548
7/1/2016 -0.19%        103,022            103,216
10/1/2016 -0.85%        106,377            107,230
1/1/2017 1.57%        113,406            111,832
4/1/2017 -1.86%        116,227            118,091
7/1/2017 -2.40%        119,144            121,545
10/1/2017 -2.56%        124,448            127,007
1/1/2018 -3.63%        131,460            135,086
4/1/2018 -0.16%        133,734            133,898
Current -2.52%        136,015            138,536

Back to trailing by 2.5 points.  Recall in mid April I was up 3 points, so I've slipped.  I think that is all the MFI stuff I can stomach for now.  I will be posting my May 2017 MFI tracking results later this week, so stay tuned.

Dividend Portfolio

Now I will spend a little time documenting my other two investing portfolio, Dividend and Misc.  Neither of these are MFI focused, so don't blame you if you stop here.

My Dividend portfolio is my largest portfolio as I am retired and have attempted to create an income stream.  So my concern here is more about sustainability of income rather than capital gains.  I do have some securities that I know will be challenged in a rising rate environment.  I also measure this portfolio against a basket of 40 income holdings recommended by Barron's at start of 2018.


 Dividend Stocks  Start  Current   Divvy   Overall Pct Gain   Weekly Pct Gain   12/30/17 Price   Yield   2018   Adj 2018 
 TK      8.63         7.63      0.11 -10.3% -5.2%           9.32 2.9% -18.1% -3.1%
 OIBAX      5.91         5.70      0.27 1.0% 0.0%           5.96 4.6% -4.4% -4.4%
 LADR    13.35       15.20      0.61 18.4% -1.4%        13.63 8.3% 11.5% 10.5%
 KCLI    48.14       41.50      0.79 -12.1% 3.8%        45.25 2.6% -8.3% -7.8%
 NS    29.19       22.62      1.47 -17.5% -0.7%        29.95 10.6% -24.5% -12.0%
 CPLP      3.50         3.11      0.22 -4.9% 0.6%           3.36 10.3% -7.4% -7.1%
 AMID    13.25       10.05      0.82 -17.9% -9.9%        13.35 16.4% -24.7% 0.1%
 TGP    18.28       17.75      0.28 -1.3% -1.1%        20.15 3.2% -11.9% -11.5%
 GLOP-PB    25.36       25.90      0.33 3.4% -0.7%        25.36 8.0% 2.1% 2.1%
 KNOP    21.30       20.50      1.04 1.1% 1.2%        20.75 10.1% -1.2% -1.2%
 JQC      8.18         8.09      0.84 9.2% 0.0%           8.22 6.1% -1.6% -1.6%
 ISBC    13.33       13.59      0.26 3.9% 0.4%        13.88 2.6% -2.1% -2.1%
 PSXP    47.39       50.72      2.42 12.1% 1.0%        52.35 5.6% -3.1% -3.1%
 EVG    14.46       13.12      0.70 -4.4% -0.9%        14.35 5.9% -8.6% -8.6%
 FDEU    18.40       16.96      1.30 -0.7% -2.9%        18.83 8.6% -9.9% -9.9%
 NRZ    16.56       18.10      1.67 19.3% 0.2%        17.88 11.0% 1.2% 1.2%
 SBRA    22.15       20.32      0.89 -4.3% 6.2%        18.77 8.9% 8.3% 8.5%
 DSL    19.47       19.96      2.59 15.8% -0.5%        20.19 9.0% -1.1% -1.1%
 OCSI      8.68         8.42      0.52 3.1% 0.4%           8.40 6.9% 0.2% 0.2%
 TGONF    11.04       12.75      2.14 34.9% -0.1%        13.30 5.6% -4.1% -4.1%
 TOO      2.33         2.77      0.02 19.5% 1.8%           2.36 1.4% 17.4% 14.7%
 DDR    14.15       14.74           -   4.1% 1.2%        14.00 5.2% 5.3% 5.3%
 O    26.15       52.84    21.57 184.5% -0.3%        57.02 5.0% -7.3% -7.2%
 Totals  1.9% -0.1% 6.7% -0.2%

Funny, I had some technical difficulties there as I had not adjusted this table for the fact that DDR split 1:2.  I all of a sudden had 102% gain for DDR.  You'll see AMID was down a shocking 9.9% during the week.  I had noted at end of last week that I had lost faith in AMID, so thankfully I sold 60% of my position at start of week before the slide.  TK has also really caused me some pain of late, down another 5% this week.  It is definitely oversold (IMHO) and if I was super active in my dividend portfolio, I'd be buying here at $7.63.  I do encourage people to look at DDR,  it is another stock that I think is undervalued and has a catalyst (spinoff) later this year that should unlock some value. (at this time, it is fair to invoke another Mark Twain quote "It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so").

With my sale of AMID, I did start a position in ETP at $13.82.  It is not yet in table above.   Another (and pretty successful so far) component of my dividend portfolio are my small banks.  I started this in December 2017, so I show both results since I started and since January 1st:

 Bank   Start   Current   Dividends   Change   2018 Change   Yield 
 ACBI          16.99          21.00                 -   23.6% 19.3% 0.0%
 ASB          25.69          27.65            0.15 8.2% 8.9% 2.2%
 FBIZ          23.69          26.03            0.28 11.1% 17.7% 2.2%
 FULT          18.81          17.85            0.23 -3.9% -0.3% 2.8%
 FNB          14.47          13.56            0.12 -5.5% -1.9% 3.7%
 MSBI          32.96          32.84            0.44 1.0% 1.1% 2.7%
 NRIM          37.47          39.70            0.45 7.2% 17.3% 2.7%
 PACW          48.30          53.97            1.10 14.0% 7.1% 4.4%
 SONA          17.13          17.24            0.16 1.6% 7.5% 2.1%
 WNEB          10.88          10.70            0.08 -0.9% -1.8% 1.5%
 Total  5.6% 7.5% 2.4%

Up 7.5% this year.  That is like a home run!  Finally,  here is the index I benchmark against:


 Ticker  12/30/2017  Current   Dividend   YTD Change   Weekly Change   Yield 
 AMLP                10.79          10.13               0.41 -2.3% -2.5% 8.24%
 NML                  9.38             8.80               0.28 -3.3% -3.4% 7.50%
 EPD                26.51          27.87               0.84 8.3% -0.5% 6.08%
 ETP                17.92          18.55               1.13 9.8% -2.3% 12.12%
 FDD                13.73          14.00               0.15 3.0% -2.0% 2.50%
 VGK                59.15          58.78               0.38 0.0% -1.8% 2.72%
 DDAIF                84.57          76.02               3.25 -6.3% -4.1% 5.93%
 NVS                83.96          76.10               2.75 -6.1% -1.2% 3.93%
 NOBL                64.04          62.85               0.33 -1.3% 0.1% 1.85%
 VYM                85.63          84.23               0.62 -0.9% 0.2% 2.91%
 MRK                56.27          59.09               0.48 5.9% -0.1% 3.21%
 PEP              119.92        100.31               0.81 -15.7% 2.9% 3.19%
 VNQ                82.98          77.73               0.98 -5.2% 2.5% 4.66%
 RQI                12.65          11.48               0.40 -6.1% 3.0% 5.49%
 TCO                65.43          53.54               0.63 -17.2% 3.2% 4.74%
 SLG              100.93          95.86               0.78 -4.3% 1.7% 3.32%
 T                38.88          32.51               0.98 -13.9% 1.4% 6.09%
 VZ                52.93          48.52               1.12 -6.2% 1.6% 4.84%
 CHL                50.54          45.63                    -   -9.7% -2.0% 4.47%
 DTEGY                17.66          15.57                    -   -11.8% -1.5% 4.93%
 DSU                11.70          11.31               0.35 -0.4% 0.0% 4.84%
 HIO                  5.07             4.78               0.15 -2.9% -1.2% 5.21%
 MUB              110.74        108.85               1.05 -0.8% 0.5% 2.28%
 PRHYX                  6.76             6.54               0.12 -1.5% -0.2% 5.40%
 NEA                13.75          12.96               0.30 -3.6% 1.1% 5.47%
 JNK                36.72          35.70               0.83 -0.5% 0.1% 5.60%
 VWITX                14.13          13.86               0.16 -0.8% 0.4% 2.80%
 PHMIX                  9.09             9.04               0.16 1.2% 0.6% 2.80%
 UTG                30.94          28.21               0.80 -6.2% 0.2% 4.20%
 XLU                52.65          50.48               0.42 -3.3% 3.0% 3.39%
 DUK                84.11          75.81               1.78 -7.8% 2.7% 4.69%
 EIX                63.24          62.98               0.54 0.4% 2.8% 3.64%
 PFF                38.07          37.16               0.90 0.0% 0.5% 5.60%
 JPC                10.34             9.76               0.33 -2.5% 0.8% 5.33%
 WFC-PL          1,309.99    1,268.00             18.75 -1.8% 0.2% 5.80%
 TIP              114.08        111.96               1.05 -0.9% 0.5% 2.67%
 SHY                83.85          83.36               0.40 -0.1% 0.2% 1.16%
 TLT              126.86        119.62               1.28 -4.7% 2.1% 2.59%
 Totals                       -                    -                      -   -3.1% 0.3% 4.53%

You'll note ETP is in the index, so we'll have one overlap.

Miscellaneous

After a strong run in Q2, I had some setbacks this week, down 1.4%.  This is a riskier and more traded portfolio.  Probably declines in NMM, EGC and SLSDF were biggest culprits.  I did start two new positions: ECA and EGO (guess I like the letter E).  ECA was bad timing as all energy stocks declined in the week, so I am down almost 10% already. (Doh!).  EGO was a good buy, in at $1.00.  EGO was part of my gold/miners basket and was down 18% when I sold that basket.  But I knew their biggest overhang was getting Greek regulatory approval on some of their Greek operations.  They announced earlier this week that they were making progress on that, so I started a new position.  It is up 13% and I believe (but see Mark Twain quote above) that if it is remediated in a favorable fashion that there is still significant upside.

My other very small cap that I think is interesting is ANW.  This is a firm that supplied services to shipping companies.  They announced a new Chairman of the Board this week (from MS) and I am hopeful he'll take some actions to unlock some value.  The stock trades at $3.10.  They are in arrears in getting out 20F (their 10K), but I believe it could show a book value north of $6 a share. So there is value to unlock.  Interestingly, even trading at $3, I could sell Dec $5 calls for 30 cents. So there are option traders that believe there is potential upside north of $5.

Ok, that is a wrap!

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