Buy When Fearful Experiment

Buy When Fearful Experiment

I continue to track my Experiment of just buying stocks when you are fearful.  I was getting way too many transactions, so here are the rules for now.

1. Start with all the stocks I held at start of year.
2. If a stock drops 15% or more from its high since I started tracking (so 1/1/18 in this case), buy the stock.
3. If it then drops another 15% from that purchase price, buy it again.
4. Hold stock purchases for a year.
5. Always use the same $ amount when buying (in this example I am using 10,000 so easy to see percentage gains/losses.

The concept is pretty straightforward and easy to run.  It is working well (hypothetically) so far.  I can see problems in:

1. Too many transactions
2. In a prolonged bear market, you could be buying a lot (but that is probably the right thing to do)
3. Would have to think about how many stocks on watch list to use at start.
4. Would have to think about how much to buy per transaction - don't want too little as transaction costs and time to track becomes not worth it... but too much could cause investor to run out of cash... and don't really want to use margin.

I also thought about using some sort of randomness to still use this formula but not have so many transactions.  Each time a stock qualifies, you could flip 2 coins, if both heads then buy it.

Here is what output table looks like... stock turns red if past 15% threshold:

Ticker	Current Price	Max Price	Owned	Price	Ratio
AMID	10.85	14.09	3/23/18	9.76	1.11
ASB	27.88	27.88	#N/A	#N/A	1.00
AUPH	5.91	6.36	#N/A	#N/A	0.93
AKRX	13.88	33.56	4/23/18	13.05	1.06
BKE	25.25	25.80	3/18/18	18.60	1.36
BTG	2.65	3.24	2/7/18	2.77	0.96
CA	35.30	36.85	#N/A	#N/A	0.96
CARS	24.47	31.97	2/5/18	26.80	0.91
CBWTF	1.20	2.20	2/26/18	1.17	1.02
CELG	76.50	109.14	5/22/18	74.69	1.02
CNNEF	3.29	3.77	5/18/18	3.22	1.02

Then here are stocks that have been bought under rules:

Date Purchased	Stock	Shares	Purchase Price	Current/Sold Price	Cost	Value	Dividends	Gain
05/22/18	CELG	134	$74.69	$76.50	10,000	10,242	-	242
05/18/18	CNNEF	3,106	$3.22	$3.29	10,000	10,217	-	217
05/10/18	EVC	2,439	$4.10	$4.35	10,000	10,610	-	610
05/03/18	MSGN	536	$18.65	$20.17	10,000	10,818	-	818
04/26/18	MD	215	$46.52	$46.88	10,000	10,077	-	77
04/26/18	SGYP	6,250	$1.60	$1.63	10,000	10,156	-	156
04/23/18	AKRX	766	$13.05	$13.88	10,000	10,636	-	636
04/19/18	SLSDF	37,037	$0.27	$0.31	10,000	11,540	-	1,540
04/15/18	MTG	952	$10.50	$10.69	10,000	10,181	-	181
04/10/18	EGC	2,439	$4.10	$8.38	10,000	20,439	-	10,439
04/02/18	MSGN	455	$22.00	$20.17	10,000	9,170	-	(830)
04/02/18	TGNA	917	$10.91	$10.92	10,000	10,009	64	73
03/27/18	EGO	11,905	$0.84	$1.09	10,000	12,976	-	2,976
03/23/18	AMID	1,025	$9.76	$10.85	10,000	11,117	420	1,537
03/23/18	GILD	137	$72.84	$68.19	10,000	9,362	-	(638)
03/23/18	OMC	142	$70.19	$75.61	10,000	10,773	-	773
03/23/18	TGP	566	$17.66	$17.50	10,000	9,909	79	(11)
03/22/18	NMM	5,495	$1.82	$1.83	10,000	10,076	110	186
03/21/18	GME	713	$14.02	$12.59	10,000	8,980	-	(1,020)
03/21/18	QCOM	176	$56.71	$57.54	10,000	10,147	123	271
03/20/18	EGO	9,709	$1.03	$1.09	10,000	10,583	-	583
03/20/18	PSXP	216	$46.34	$50.87	10,000	10,978	151	1,129
03/18/18	BKE	538	$18.60	$25.25	10,000	13,575	134	3,710
03/16/18	DIN	176	$56.80	$68.32	10,000	12,028	-	2,028
03/15/18	EVC	1,969	$5.08	$4.35	10,000	8,563	98	(1,339)
03/14/18	GSS	15,385	$0.65	$0.71	10,000	10,851	-	851
03/13/18	EVC	1,603	$6.24	$4.35	10,000	6,971	80	(2,949)
03/12/18	MTG	801	$12.48	$10.69	10,000	8,566	-	(1,434)
03/02/18	NS	495	$20.22	$23.86	10,000	11,800	297	2,097
03/01/18	SLSDF	31,250	$0.32	$0.31	10,000	9,737	-	(263)
02/27/18	AKRX	536	$18.65	$13.88	10,000	7,442	-	(2,558)
02/26/18	CBWTF	8,547	$1.17	$1.20	10,000	10,220	-	220
02/23/18	OMER	1,046	$9.56	$21.07	10,000	22,040	-	12,040
02/20/18	KLDX	6,667	$1.50	$2.52	10,000	16,800	-	6,800
02/14/18	OMER	889	$11.25	$21.07	10,000	18,729	-	8,729
02/12/18	RGR	208	$48.08	$60.80	10,000	12,646	67	2,712
02/12/18	ROSE	1,410	$7.09	$8.16	10,000	11,509	-	1,509
02/09/18	AMID	859	$11.64	$10.85	10,000	9,321	352	(326)
02/09/18	SAND	2,183	$4.58	$4.62	10,000	10,087	-	87
02/08/18	CELG	110	$91.08	$76.50	10,000	8,399	-	(1,601)
02/08/18	HPQ	505	$19.80	$22.17	10,000	11,194	71	1,265
02/08/18	ICHR	454	$22.01	$24.74	10,000	11,240	-	1,240
02/08/18	NS	407	$24.57	$23.86	10,000	9,711	244	(45)
02/08/18	O	213	$46.95	$52.21	10,000	11,119	141	1,260
02/08/18	TGNA	757	$13.21	$10.92	10,000	8,266	53	(1,681)
02/07/18	BTG	3,610	$2.77	$2.65	10,000	9,567	-	(433)
02/07/18	EXK	4,566	$2.19	$2.90	10,000	13,242	-	3,242
02/07/18	GSS	12,987	$0.77	$0.71	10,000	9,160	-	(840)
02/07/18	KLDX	5,650	$1.77	$2.52	10,000	14,237	-	4,237
02/07/18	OMER	695	$14.39	$21.07	10,000	14,642	-	4,642
02/06/18	EGC	1,786	$5.60	$8.38	10,000	14,964	-	4,964
02/06/18	FSM	2,222	$4.50	$5.57	10,000	12,367	-	2,367
02/05/18	CARS	373	$26.80	$24.47	10,000	9,129	-	(871)
02/05/18	SGYP	5,319	$1.88	$1.63	10,000	8,644	-	(1,356)
02/02/18	CBWTF	6,993	$1.43	$1.20	10,000	8,362	-	(1,638)
02/02/18	EGO	8,197	$1.22	$1.09	10,000	8,934	-	(1,066)
02/02/18	ICHR	351	$28.50	$24.74	10,000	8,681	-	(1,319)
02/02/18	KL	703	$14.22	$18.98	10,000	13,347	-	3,347
01/30/18	GCAP	1,391	$7.19	$8.19	10,000	11,391	111	1,502
01/30/18	NSU	4,878	$2.05	$3.47	10,000	16,927	-	6,927
01/29/18	NMM	4,651	$2.15	$1.83	10,000	8,529	93	(1,378)
01/24/18	GME	603	$16.58	$12.59	10,000	7,593	229	(2,177)
01/23/18	SGYP	4,464	$2.24	$1.63	10,000	7,254	-	(2,746)
01/19/18	SIMO	220	$45.47	$50.44	10,000	11,093	66	1,159
01/17/18	OMER	581	$17.21	$21.07	10,000	12,243	-	2,243
01/16/18	SLSDF	26,316	$0.38	$0.31	10,000	8,199	-	(1,801)
01/12/18	GCAP	1,119	$8.94	$8.19	10,000	9,161	89	(749)
01/11/18	CBWTF	5,814	$1.72	$1.20	10,000	6,952	-	(3,048)
01/10/18	KLDX	4,785	$2.09	$2.52	10,000	12,057	-	2,057
01/09/18	SELB	1,151	$8.69	$11.70	10,000	13,464	-	3,464

Average one is up about 10%, so working thus far.  I'll keep tracking.