The internet can be such a great place. Listening to WWUH 91.3 archives this morning, they have some very very good stuff... if you like eclectic. Today it is (Early Morning Jams with Bobby Gomes). It is great stuff.
My other passion of late has been binge watching. I just subscribed to HBO Now and am finishing up season 2 of Veep. It is so funny, I just sometimes start laughing hysterically. It is probably funnier because there is an underlying reality to it in that is the way politicians think.
I was down 1.6% for the week and it is entirely from VEC (as in train wreck). The math is pretty simple. Going into the week, VEC was my 5th largest holding at 3.7%. It went down 45% yesterday. 45% x 3.7% is pretty close to 1.6%. I was traveling yesterday, so didn't really dig into what caused their crash on Friday. I assume it was another lost base/contract.
MFI Select
Clearly the VEC fallout will be felt here.
| Date | Differential | MFI Value | R3K Value |
| 12/1/2012 | -2.20% | 99,765 | 101,965 |
| 1/1/2013 | -1.78% | 102,798 | 104,575 |
| 2/1/2013 | -2.26% | 102,594 | 104,856 |
| 3/1/2013 | -2.23% | 102,881 | 105,114 |
| 4/1/2013 | -0.43% | 106,804 | 107,234 |
| 5/1/2013 | 2.00% | 110,423 | 108,423 |
| 6/1/2013 | 4.75% | 115,831 | 111,085 |
| 7/1/2013 | 4.29% | 114,888 | 110,597 |
| 8/1/2013 | 6.91% | 124,799 | 117,889 |
| 9/1/2013 | 10.46% | 124,536 | 114,079 |
| 10/1/2013 | 19.67% | 138,655 | 118,990 |
| 11/1/2013 | 19.75% | 143,514 | 123,764 |
| 12/1/2013 | 23.70% | 150,105 | 126,405 |
| 1/1/2014 | 26.63% | 157,138 | 130,503 |
| 2/1/2014 | 24.70% | 150,619 | 125,918 |
| 3/1/2014 | 25.66% | 158,116 | 132,458 |
| 4/1/2014 | 30.38% | 162,991 | 132,616 |
| 5/1/2014 | 29.65% | 162,428 | 132,779 |
| 6/1/2014 | 31.44% | 167,001 | 135,559 |
| 7/1/2014 | 39.23% | 177,971 | 138,740 |
| 8/1/2014 | 31.13% | 167,054 | 135,922 |
| 9/1/2014 | 35.90% | 177,792 | 141,892 |
| 10/1/2014 | 29.38% | 168,321 | 138,944 |
| 11/1/2014 | 26.14% | 168,810 | 142,666 |
| 12/1/2014 | 30.22% | 176,420 | 146,198 |
| 1/1/2015 | 28.17% | 174,306 | 146,140 |
| 2/1/2015 | 20.63% | 162,833 | 142,201 |
| 3/1/2015 | 25.15% | 175,476 | 150,324 |
| 4/1/2015 | 29.95% | 178,565 | 148,612 |
| 5/1/2015 | 37.31% | 186,655 | 149,348 |
| 6/1/2015 | 51.53% | 202,897 | 151,371 |
| 7/1/2015 | 62.69% | 211,437 | 148,743 |
| 8/1/2015 | 40.75% | 192,117 | 151,369 |
| 9/1/2015 | 36.41% | 178,603 | 142,195 |
| 10/1/2015 | 43.12% | 181,175 | 138,052 |
| 11/1/2015 | 69.02% | 217,959 | 148,936 |
| 12/1/2015 | 73.49% | 223,435 | 149,946 |
| 1/1/2016 | 63.33% | 209,514 | 146,186 |
| 2/1/2016 | 49.49% | 187,428 | 137,934 |
| 3/1/2016 | 56.48% | 194,415 | 137,934 |
| 4/1/2016 | 47.34% | 195,770 | 148,430 |
| 5/1/2016 | 46.38% | 194,301 | 147,923 |
| 6/1/2016 | 51.44% | 201,999 | 150,558 |
| 7/1/2016 | 50.41% | 201,092 | 150,680 |
| 8/1/2016 | 52.72% | 207,223 | 154,501 |
| 9/1/2016 | 67.04% | 222,481 | 155,446 |
| Current | 42.98% | 198,563 | 155,582 |
Wow, that is shocking. I gave up a lot of my lead in a single day.
| 11/15/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| LCI | $34.01 | $26.57 | $0.00 | -21.9% | 7.6% |
| SAVE | $34.48 | $42.53 | $0.00 | 23.4% | 7.6% |
| PPC | $18.98 | $21.12 | $2.75 | 25.8% | 7.6% |
| VEC | $23.60 | $15.23 | $0.00 | -35.5% | 7.6% |
| VNCE | $3.99 | $5.64 | $0.00 | 41.4% | 7.6% |
| Totals | 6.6% | 7.6% | |||
| 2/1/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VEC | $19.64 | $15.23 | $0.00 | -22.4% | 14.5% |
| QCOM | $45.18 | $68.50 | $1.54 | 55.0% | 14.5% |
| PERI | $2.45 | $1.20 | $0.00 | -51.0% | 14.5% |
| DEPO | $15.34 | $24.97 | $0.00 | 62.8% | 14.5% |
| TDC | $24.02 | $31.00 | $0.00 | 29.1% | 14.5% |
| Totals | 14.7% | 14.5% | |||
| 5/6/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BRCD | $7.97 | $9.23 | $0.11 | 17.2% | 7.4% |
| CBI | $37.82 | $28.03 | $0.00 | -25.9% | 7.4% |
| HSII | $18.51 | $18.55 | $0.13 | 0.9% | 7.4% |
| RHI | $38.51 | $37.86 | $0.44 | -0.5% | 7.4% |
| UTHR | $107.99 | $118.08 | $0.00 | 9.3% | 7.4% |
| Totals | 0.2% | 7.4% | |||
| 8/15/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CSCO | $31.20 | $31.72 | $0.00 | 1.7% | -0.3% |
| GNC | $19.79 | $20.42 | $0.19 | 4.1% | -0.3% |
| VLO | $54.73 | $53.00 | $0.00 | -3.2% | -0.3% |
| MSGN | $16.68 | $18.61 | $0.00 | 11.6% | -0.3% |
| GILD | $79.33 | $79.12 | $0.47 | 0.3% | -0.3% |
| Totals | 2.9% | -0.3% |
Wow, November is now trailing. February was so good, now just blah. The market can be punishing.
MFI Formula
Made a little headway here. I have closed the 10/1 tranche and will start a new tranche next week.
| Date | Differential | Value | R3K Value |
| 10/1/2014 | 0.00% | 100,000 | 100,000 |
| 11/1/2014 | 1.63% | 102,288 | 100,658 |
| 12/1/2014 | 0.30% | 101,375 | 101,075 |
| 1/1/2015 | -0.33% | 100,664 | 100,995 |
| 2/1/2015 | 1.67% | 101,281 | 99,611 |
| 3/1/2015 | 3.62% | 106,073 | 102,454 |
| 4/1/2015 | 5.09% | 106,781 | 101,695 |
| 5/1/2015 | 5.78% | 107,859 | 102,077 |
| 6/1/2015 | 5.08% | 108,213 | 103,134 |
| 7/1/2015 | 4.82% | 106,423 | 101,604 |
| 8/1/2015 | 3.71% | 107,112 | 103,404 |
| 9/1/2015 | 4.38% | 101,523 | 97,139 |
| 10/1/2015 | 6.39% | 100,703 | 94,312 |
| 11/1/2015 | 2.93% | 104,835 | 101,907 |
| 12/1/2015 | -3.48% | 99,443 | 102,926 |
| 1/1/2016 | -3.36% | 96,830 | 100,012 |
| 2/1/2016 | -0.72% | 93,797 | 94,367 |
| 3/1/2016 | 4.07% | 98,588 | 94,367 |
| 4/1/2016 | 0.34% | 102,371 | 101,548 |
| 5/1/2016 | -1.91% | 99,774 | 101,200 |
| 6/1/2016 | -0.42% | 103,145 | 103,568 |
| 7/1/2016 | -0.19% | 103,022 | 103,216 |
| 8/1/2016 | 2.56% | 109,419 | 106,857 |
| 9/1/2016 | -0.34% | 106,704 | 107,048 |
| Current | -0.85% | 106,377 | 107,230 |
| 10/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BKE | $36.83 | $24.03 | $1.98 | -29.4% | 13.6% |
| IQNT | $21.96 | $16.14 | $0.60 | -23.8% | 13.6% |
| QCOM | $53.45 | $68.50 | $2.02 | 31.9% | 13.6% |
| CSCO | $26.37 | $31.72 | $0.94 | 23.9% | 13.6% |
| CA | $27.30 | $33.08 | $1.01 | 24.9% | 13.6% |
| Totals | 5.5% | 13.6% | |||
| 12/31/15 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BBY | $30.31 | $38.18 | $1.29 | 30.2% | 7.5% |
| GME | $28.34 | $27.59 | $1.11 | 1.3% | 7.5% |
| IILG | $15.89 | $17.17 | $0.36 | 10.3% | 7.5% |
| PPC | $22.22 | $21.12 | $2.75 | 7.4% | 7.5% |
| VIAB | $40.93 | $38.10 | $0.80 | -5.0% | 7.5% |
| Totals | 8.9% | 7.5% | |||
| 4/1/16 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CALM | $51.27 | $38.54 | $0.44 | -24.0% | 7.2% |
| HPQ | $12.10 | $15.53 | $0.25 | 30.4% | 7.2% |
| TIME | $15.24 | $14.48 | $0.38 | -2.5% | 7.2% |
| IILG | $13.85 | $17.17 | $0.24 | 25.7% | 7.2% |
| TSRA | $30.79 | $38.44 | $0.40 | 26.2% | 7.2% |
| Totals | 11.1% | 7.2% | |||
| 7/1/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| IILG | $16.76 | $17.17 | $0.12 | 3.2% | 3.1% |
| VIAB | $44.00 | $38.10 | $0.00 | -13.4% | 3.1% |
| CPLA | $53.22 | $58.04 | $0.39 | 9.8% | 3.1% |
| HRB | $23.62 | $23.15 | $0.22 | -1.1% | 3.1% |
| PBI | $17.69 | $18.16 | $0.19 | 3.7% | 3.1% |
| Totals | 0.4% | 3.1% |
The 10/1 tranche ended up losing. It was a story of three very good stocks, but two bad stocks. Not a disaster, but a loss. A pity Mr Random Generator didn't give me HPQ (up 52%) or KING or QCOM (each up 34%). Well, 5 new picks this weekend. I will run the machinery on Sunday.
Dividends/Warrants
Downward trend here.
| Div and Warrants | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | Pct Gain Last Week | June 1 2016 |
| BAC-WTA | $4.90 | $4.62 | $0.00 | -5.7% | -4.7% | -20.6% |
| AOD | $7.64 | $7.63 | $1.57 | 20.4% | 20.1% | 17.1% |
| JQC | $7.82 | $8.48 | $0.50 | 14.8% | 12.9% | 8.4% |
| CSQ | $9.08 | $10.28 | $2.03 | 35.7% | 36.0% | 30.5% |
| DSL | $18.42 | $19.15 | $0.59 | 7.2% | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| TGONF | $10.24 | $10.42 | $1.69 | 18.3% | 21.5% | 12.5% |
| HIG-WT | $21.24 | $36.90 | $0.00 | 73.8% | 73.8% | 75.7% |
| O | $23.83 | $66.93 | $19.09 | 261.0% | 264.8% | 249.0% |
| OIBAX | $5.06 | $5.95 | $2.27 | 62.4% | 62.4% | 58.1% |
| SJT | $8.75 | $5.90 | $0.28 | -29.5% | -29.2% | -14.4% |
| GLDI | $10.68 | $10.40 | $0.52 | 2.3% | 3.3% | 0.0% |
| Totals | 13.8% | 14.3% | 9.0% |
SJT really popped up when OPEC announced plans to plan cuts. But it dropped back on Friday. BAC warrants were all over the place. I am not sure that DB worries will be good for BAC. Recall I have also bought SBRA and will add to this portfolio officially starting 2017. It is up a very nice 5.6%.
I also bought PSX (a Buffett holding at $80). It has a nice 3.2% yield. I am trying a little covered call expirement with them. So I have sold February 85 calls for 2.25. So if called out in February, I'll make 2.25 + 5 + 1.2 = $8.45. So over a 10% return in 6 months. If not called out, it is a name I am very very willing to hold longer term. We will see how it works out.
Speculative Names
MGIC, WLDN and SPCB all continue to hang in there. EMG is one I watch the headlines on every day for a takeover announcement. It has been about two months and has melted down from $4 to $3. I think if taken out, $6 is a reasonable number so there is serious upside at $3. But who knows.
I also keep expecting GNC to announce something. The longer one waits, the less likely anything good will come. But I will be patient as I do not mind EMG or GNC at the prices I paid. I think if you are speculating on takeovers, you still need to be comfortable with the fundamentals of the holding. PN is the third one I own, I am really surprised we have heard nothig as they have a literal offer on the table.
Have a great weekend. I'll be posting my most recent tracking portfolio results and my five new stocks.
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