Saturday, October 01, 2016

Weekend Update 10/1/16

Weekend Update

The internet can be such a great place.  Listening to WWUH 91.3 archives this morning, they have some very very good stuff... if you like eclectic.  Today it is (Early Morning Jams with Bobby Gomes).  It is great stuff.

My other passion of late has been binge watching.  I just subscribed to HBO Now and am finishing up season 2 of Veep. It is so funny, I just sometimes start laughing hysterically.  It is probably funnier because there is an underlying reality to it in that is the way politicians think.

I was down 1.6% for the week and it is entirely from VEC (as in train wreck).  The math is pretty simple. Going into the week, VEC was my 5th largest holding at 3.7%. It went down 45% yesterday.  45% x 3.7% is pretty close to 1.6%.  I was traveling yesterday, so didn't really dig into what caused their crash on Friday.  I assume it was another lost base/contract.

MFI Select

Clearly the VEC fallout will be felt here.

 Date   Differential   MFI Value   R3K Value 
12/1/2012 -2.20%          99,765            101,965
1/1/2013 -1.78%        102,798            104,575
2/1/2013 -2.26%        102,594            104,856
3/1/2013 -2.23%        102,881            105,114
4/1/2013 -0.43%        106,804            107,234
5/1/2013 2.00%        110,423            108,423
6/1/2013 4.75%        115,831            111,085
7/1/2013 4.29%        114,888            110,597
8/1/2013 6.91%        124,799            117,889
9/1/2013 10.46%        124,536            114,079
10/1/2013 19.67%        138,655            118,990
11/1/2013 19.75%        143,514            123,764
12/1/2013 23.70%        150,105            126,405
1/1/2014 26.63%        157,138            130,503
2/1/2014 24.70%        150,619            125,918
3/1/2014 25.66%        158,116            132,458
4/1/2014 30.38%        162,991            132,616
5/1/2014 29.65%        162,428            132,779
6/1/2014 31.44%        167,001            135,559
7/1/2014 39.23%        177,971            138,740
8/1/2014 31.13%        167,054            135,922
9/1/2014 35.90%        177,792            141,892
10/1/2014 29.38%        168,321            138,944
11/1/2014 26.14%        168,810            142,666
12/1/2014 30.22%        176,420            146,198
1/1/2015 28.17%        174,306            146,140
2/1/2015 20.63%        162,833            142,201
3/1/2015 25.15%        175,476            150,324
4/1/2015 29.95%        178,565            148,612
5/1/2015 37.31%        186,655            149,348
6/1/2015 51.53%        202,897            151,371
7/1/2015 62.69%        211,437            148,743
8/1/2015 40.75%        192,117            151,369
9/1/2015 36.41%        178,603            142,195
10/1/2015 43.12%        181,175            138,052
11/1/2015 69.02%        217,959            148,936
12/1/2015 73.49%        223,435            149,946
1/1/2016 63.33%        209,514            146,186
2/1/2016 49.49%        187,428            137,934
3/1/2016 56.48%        194,415            137,934
4/1/2016 47.34%        195,770            148,430
5/1/2016 46.38%        194,301            147,923
6/1/2016 51.44%        201,999            150,558
7/1/2016 50.41%        201,092            150,680
8/1/2016 52.72%        207,223            154,501
9/1/2016 67.04%        222,481            155,446
Current 42.98%        198,563            155,582


Wow, that is shocking.  I gave up a lot of my lead in a single day.

11/15/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 LCI  $34.01 $26.57 $0.00 -21.9% 7.6%
 SAVE  $34.48 $42.53 $0.00 23.4% 7.6%
 PPC  $18.98 $21.12 $2.75 25.8% 7.6%
 VEC  $23.60 $15.23 $0.00 -35.5% 7.6%
 VNCE  $3.99 $5.64 $0.00 41.4% 7.6%
 Totals  6.6% 7.6%
2/1/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 VEC  $19.64 $15.23 $0.00 -22.4% 14.5%
 QCOM  $45.18 $68.50 $1.54 55.0% 14.5%
 PERI  $2.45 $1.20 $0.00 -51.0% 14.5%
 DEPO  $15.34 $24.97 $0.00 62.8% 14.5%
 TDC  $24.02 $31.00 $0.00 29.1% 14.5%
 Totals  14.7% 14.5%
5/6/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BRCD  $7.97 $9.23 $0.11 17.2% 7.4%
 CBI  $37.82 $28.03 $0.00 -25.9% 7.4%
 HSII  $18.51 $18.55 $0.13 0.9% 7.4%
 RHI  $38.51 $37.86 $0.44 -0.5% 7.4%
 UTHR  $107.99 $118.08 $0.00 9.3% 7.4%
 Totals  0.2% 7.4%
8/15/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CSCO  $31.20 $31.72 $0.00 1.7% -0.3%
 GNC  $19.79 $20.42 $0.19 4.1% -0.3%
 VLO  $54.73 $53.00 $0.00 -3.2% -0.3%
 MSGN  $16.68 $18.61 $0.00 11.6% -0.3%
 GILD  $79.33 $79.12 $0.47 0.3% -0.3%
 Totals  2.9% -0.3%


Wow, November is now trailing.  February was so good, now just blah.  The market can be punishing.

MFI Formula

Made a little headway here.  I have closed the 10/1 tranche and will start a new tranche next week.

 Date   Differential   Value   R3K Value 
10/1/2014 0.00%        100,000            100,000
11/1/2014 1.63%        102,288            100,658
12/1/2014 0.30%        101,375            101,075
1/1/2015 -0.33%        100,664            100,995
2/1/2015 1.67%        101,281              99,611
3/1/2015 3.62%        106,073            102,454
4/1/2015 5.09%        106,781            101,695
5/1/2015 5.78%        107,859            102,077
6/1/2015 5.08%        108,213            103,134
7/1/2015 4.82%        106,423            101,604
8/1/2015 3.71%        107,112            103,404
9/1/2015 4.38%        101,523              97,139
10/1/2015 6.39%        100,703              94,312
11/1/2015 2.93%        104,835            101,907
12/1/2015 -3.48%          99,443            102,926
1/1/2016 -3.36%          96,830            100,012
2/1/2016 -0.72%          93,797              94,367
3/1/2016 4.07%          98,588              94,367
4/1/2016 0.34%        102,371            101,548
5/1/2016 -1.91%          99,774            101,200
6/1/2016 -0.42%        103,145            103,568
7/1/2016 -0.19%        103,022            103,216
8/1/2016 2.56%        109,419            106,857
9/1/2016 -0.34%        106,704            107,048
Current -0.85%        106,377            107,230


10/1/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BKE  $36.83 $24.03 $1.98 -29.4% 13.6%
 IQNT  $21.96 $16.14 $0.60 -23.8% 13.6%
 QCOM  $53.45 $68.50 $2.02 31.9% 13.6%
 CSCO  $26.37 $31.72 $0.94 23.9% 13.6%
 CA  $27.30 $33.08 $1.01 24.9% 13.6%
 Totals  5.5% 13.6%
 12/31/15 Stocks   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BBY  $30.31 $38.18 $1.29 30.2% 7.5%
 GME  $28.34 $27.59 $1.11 1.3% 7.5%
 IILG  $15.89 $17.17 $0.36 10.3% 7.5%
 PPC  $22.22 $21.12 $2.75 7.4% 7.5%
 VIAB  $40.93 $38.10 $0.80 -5.0% 7.5%
 Totals  8.9% 7.5%
 4/1/16 Stocks  Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
 CALM  $51.27 $38.54 $0.44 -24.0% 7.2%
 HPQ  $12.10 $15.53 $0.25 30.4% 7.2%
 TIME  $15.24 $14.48 $0.38 -2.5% 7.2%
 IILG  $13.85 $17.17 $0.24 25.7% 7.2%
 TSRA  $30.79 $38.44 $0.40 26.2% 7.2%
 Totals  11.1% 7.2%
7/1/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 IILG  $16.76 $17.17 $0.12 3.2% 3.1%
 VIAB  $44.00 $38.10 $0.00 -13.4% 3.1%
 CPLA  $53.22 $58.04 $0.39 9.8% 3.1%
 HRB  $23.62 $23.15 $0.22 -1.1% 3.1%
 PBI  $17.69 $18.16 $0.19 3.7% 3.1%
 Totals  0.4% 3.1%


The 10/1 tranche ended up losing. It was a story of three very good stocks, but two bad stocks. Not a disaster, but a loss. A pity Mr Random Generator didn't give me HPQ (up 52%) or KING or QCOM (each up 34%).  Well, 5 new picks this weekend. I will run the machinery on Sunday.

Dividends/Warrants

Downward trend here.

 Div and Warrants   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   Pct Gain Last Week   June 1 2016 
 BAC-WTA  $4.90 $4.62 $0.00 -5.7% -4.7% -20.6%
 AOD  $7.64 $7.63 $1.57 20.4% 20.1% 17.1%
 JQC  $7.82 $8.48 $0.50 14.8% 12.9% 8.4%
 CSQ  $9.08 $10.28 $2.03 35.7% 36.0% 30.5%
 DSL  $18.42 $19.15 $0.59 7.2% 6.3% 0.0%
 TGONF  $10.24 $10.42 $1.69 18.3% 21.5% 12.5%
 HIG-WT  $21.24 $36.90 $0.00 73.8% 73.8% 75.7%
 O  $23.83 $66.93 $19.09 261.0% 264.8% 249.0%
 OIBAX  $5.06 $5.95 $2.27 62.4% 62.4% 58.1%
 SJT  $8.75 $5.90 $0.28 -29.5% -29.2% -14.4%
 GLDI  $10.68 $10.40 $0.52 2.3% 3.3% 0.0%
 Totals  13.8% 14.3% 9.0%


SJT really popped up when OPEC announced plans to plan cuts.  But it dropped back on Friday. BAC warrants were all over the place.  I am not sure that DB worries will be good for BAC.  Recall I have also bought SBRA and will add to this portfolio officially starting 2017. It is up a very nice 5.6%.

I also bought PSX (a Buffett holding at $80). It has a nice 3.2% yield.  I am trying a little covered call expirement with them. So I have sold February 85 calls for 2.25.  So if called out in February, I'll make 2.25 + 5 + 1.2 = $8.45.  So over a 10% return in 6 months.  If not called out, it is a name I am very very willing to hold longer term.  We will see how it works out.

Speculative Names

MGIC, WLDN and SPCB all continue to hang in there.  EMG is one I watch the headlines on every day for a takeover announcement.  It has been about two months and has melted down from $4 to $3.  I think if taken out, $6 is a reasonable number so there is serious upside at $3. But who knows.

I also keep expecting GNC to announce something.  The longer one waits, the less likely anything good will come. But I will be patient as I do not mind EMG or GNC at the prices I paid. I think if you are speculating on takeovers, you still need to be comfortable with the fundamentals of the holding.  PN is the third one I own, I am really surprised we have heard nothig as they have a literal offer on the table.

Have a great weekend. I'll be posting my most recent tracking portfolio results and my five new stocks.




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