Sorry I didn't update last weekend. It was very busy. Still busy, so this one may be mui rapido. Am in Boston, visiting colleges with daughter, Senior in high school. My portfolios have been kind of flat/struggling of late. It is funny, I think the last three years I have been great through labor day and then seem to struggle to New Year. Makes no sense. I am still beating the index by 170 basis points, but it was more like 4 percent a couple months ago.
I do have several pretty speculative plays: OGXI and EMG that could give me a nice boost if they end up getting bought or shut down (I still think they both have high probabilities).
With the sharp drop in VEC, my MFI Select approach has been a struggle this year and is down 6.5%. The formula approach has been better, up 5.3%. The MFI Index is up 4.2% and the R3K is up 6%. My dividend portfolio is the big winner, up 16%.
MFI Select
| 11/15/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| LCI | $34.01 | $24.85 | $0.00 | -26.9% | 5.8% |
| SAVE | $34.48 | $43.78 | $0.00 | 27.0% | 5.8% |
| PPC | $18.98 | $20.72 | $2.75 | 23.7% | 5.8% |
| VEC | $23.60 | $16.23 | $0.00 | -31.2% | 5.8% |
| VNCE | $3.99 | $5.48 | $0.00 | 37.3% | 5.8% |
| Totals | 6.0% | 5.8% | |||
| 2/1/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VEC | $19.64 | $16.23 | $0.00 | -17.4% | 12.5% |
| QCOM | $45.18 | $65.70 | $1.54 | 48.8% | 12.5% |
| PERI | $2.45 | $1.14 | $0.00 | -53.5% | 12.5% |
| DEPO | $15.34 | $24.09 | $0.00 | 57.0% | 12.5% |
| TDC | $24.02 | $29.52 | $0.00 | 22.9% | 12.5% |
| Totals | 11.6% | 12.5% | |||
| 5/6/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BRCD | $7.97 | $8.75 | $0.11 | 11.2% | 5.5% |
| CBI | $37.82 | $27.54 | $0.00 | -27.2% | 5.5% |
| HSII | $18.51 | $20.26 | $0.13 | 10.2% | 5.5% |
| RHI | $38.51 | $38.24 | $0.44 | 0.4% | 5.5% |
| UTHR | $107.99 | $116.89 | $0.00 | 8.2% | 5.5% |
| Totals | 0.6% | 5.5% | |||
| 8/15/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CSCO | $31.20 | $30.18 | $0.00 | -3.3% | -2.1% |
| GNC | $19.79 | $20.25 | $0.19 | 3.3% | -2.1% |
| VLO | $54.73 | $53.79 | $0.00 | -1.7% | -2.1% |
| MSGN | $16.68 | $18.42 | $0.00 | 10.4% | -2.1% |
| GILD | $79.33 | $72.75 | $0.47 | -7.7% | -2.1% |
| Totals | 0.2% | -2.1% | |||
| Category/Tranche | August | November | February | May | Total |
| Initial Investment | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 100,000 |
| Current Tranche | 0.2% | 6.0% | 11.6% | 0.6% | 4.7% |
| Previous Tranche | 2.8% | 69.4% | -14.3% | -25.2% | 10.9% |
| Tranche -2 | 11.2% | 14.2% | 8.5% | 18.3% | 13.0% |
| Tranche -3 | 41.4% | 43.7% | 78.3% | 33.0% | 49.1% |
| Tranche -4 | 14.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.5% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 84.8% | 194.7% | 84.9% | 18.3% | 95.7% |
| Current Balance | 46,205 | 73,683 | 46,227 | 29,565 | 195,681 |
| R3K Current Tranche | -2.1% | 5.8% | 12.5% | 5.5% | 5.4% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 63.7% | 66.8% | 49.9% | 33.0% | 54.2% |
| R3K Balance | 41,779 | 41,711 | 37,482 | 33,238 | 154,209 |
| Annualized IRR | 15.9% | 31.8% | 18.0% | 5.0% | 17.7% |
Not exactly blowing anything away here. My November tranche is a push... it used to be up a ton. February is trailing slightly due to PERI. In May I am trailing as well due to CBI (should have gone with AGX). Then August is off to decent start. So my current tranches are up 4.7% vs 5.4% for benchmark.
| Date | Differential | MFI Value | R3K Value |
| 12/1/2012 | -2.20% | 99,765 | 101,965 |
| 1/1/2013 | -1.78% | 102,798 | 104,575 |
| 2/1/2013 | -2.26% | 102,594 | 104,856 |
| 3/1/2013 | -2.23% | 102,881 | 105,114 |
| 4/1/2013 | -0.43% | 106,804 | 107,234 |
| 5/1/2013 | 2.00% | 110,423 | 108,423 |
| 6/1/2013 | 4.75% | 115,831 | 111,085 |
| 7/1/2013 | 4.29% | 114,888 | 110,597 |
| 8/1/2013 | 6.91% | 124,799 | 117,889 |
| 9/1/2013 | 10.46% | 124,536 | 114,079 |
| 10/1/2013 | 19.67% | 138,655 | 118,990 |
| 11/1/2013 | 19.75% | 143,514 | 123,764 |
| 12/1/2013 | 23.70% | 150,105 | 126,405 |
| 1/1/2014 | 26.63% | 157,138 | 130,503 |
| 2/1/2014 | 24.70% | 150,619 | 125,918 |
| 3/1/2014 | 25.66% | 158,116 | 132,458 |
| 4/1/2014 | 30.38% | 162,991 | 132,616 |
| 5/1/2014 | 29.65% | 162,428 | 132,779 |
| 6/1/2014 | 31.44% | 167,001 | 135,559 |
| 7/1/2014 | 39.23% | 177,971 | 138,740 |
| 8/1/2014 | 31.13% | 167,054 | 135,922 |
| 9/1/2014 | 35.90% | 177,792 | 141,892 |
| 10/1/2014 | 29.38% | 168,321 | 138,944 |
| 11/1/2014 | 26.14% | 168,810 | 142,666 |
| 12/1/2014 | 30.22% | 176,420 | 146,198 |
| 1/1/2015 | 28.17% | 174,306 | 146,140 |
| 2/1/2015 | 20.63% | 162,833 | 142,201 |
| 3/1/2015 | 25.15% | 175,476 | 150,324 |
| 4/1/2015 | 29.95% | 178,565 | 148,612 |
| 5/1/2015 | 37.31% | 186,655 | 149,348 |
| 6/1/2015 | 51.53% | 202,897 | 151,371 |
| 7/1/2015 | 62.69% | 211,437 | 148,743 |
| 8/1/2015 | 40.75% | 192,117 | 151,369 |
| 9/1/2015 | 36.41% | 178,603 | 142,195 |
| 10/1/2015 | 43.12% | 181,175 | 138,052 |
| 11/1/2015 | 69.02% | 217,959 | 148,936 |
| 12/1/2015 | 73.49% | 223,435 | 149,946 |
| 1/1/2016 | 63.33% | 209,514 | 146,186 |
| 2/1/2016 | 49.49% | 187,428 | 137,934 |
| 3/1/2016 | 56.48% | 194,415 | 137,934 |
| 4/1/2016 | 47.34% | 195,770 | 148,430 |
| 5/1/2016 | 46.38% | 194,301 | 147,923 |
| 6/1/2016 | 51.44% | 201,999 | 150,558 |
| 7/1/2016 | 50.41% | 201,092 | 150,680 |
| 8/1/2016 | 52.72% | 207,223 | 154,501 |
| 9/1/2016 | 67.04% | 222,481 | 155,446 |
| 10/1/2016 | 42.98% | 198,563 | 155,582 |
| Current | 41.47% | 195,681 | 154,209 |
Looking month by month, you see the aforementioned post labor day malaise, from 222,481 to 195,681. That is over 10%! Yipes.
MFI Formula
| 12/31/15 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BBY | $30.31 | $39.31 | $1.29 | 33.9% | 5.7% |
| GME | $28.34 | $25.38 | $1.11 | -6.5% | 5.7% |
| IILG | $15.89 | $16.72 | $0.36 | 7.5% | 5.7% |
| PPC | $22.22 | $20.72 | $2.75 | 5.6% | 5.7% |
| VIAB | $40.93 | $36.00 | $1.00 | -9.6% | 5.7% |
| Totals | 6.2% | 5.7% | |||
| 4/1/16 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CALM | $51.27 | $38.42 | $0.44 | -24.2% | 5.4% |
| HPQ | $12.10 | $14.48 | $0.25 | 21.7% | 5.4% |
| TIME | $15.24 | $13.26 | $0.38 | -10.5% | 5.4% |
| IILG | $13.85 | $16.72 | $0.24 | 22.4% | 5.4% |
| TSRA | $30.79 | $37.82 | $0.40 | 24.1% | 5.4% |
| Totals | 6.7% | 5.4% | |||
| 7/1/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| IILG | $16.76 | $16.72 | $0.12 | 0.5% | 1.3% |
| VIAB | $44.00 | $36.00 | $0.20 | -17.7% | 1.3% |
| CPLA | $53.22 | $58.60 | $0.39 | 10.8% | 1.3% |
| HRB | $23.62 | $23.07 | $0.22 | -1.4% | 1.3% |
| PBI | $17.69 | $16.97 | $0.19 | -3.0% | 1.3% |
| Totals | -2.2% | 1.3% | |||
| 10/3/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CPLA | $58.15 | $58.60 | $0.00 | 0.8% | -1.4% |
| LDOS | $43.01 | $41.88 | $0.00 | -2.6% | -1.4% |
| GME | $27.70 | $25.38 | $0.00 | -8.4% | -1.4% |
| PBI | $18.15 | $16.97 | $0.00 | -6.5% | -1.4% |
| CSCO | $31.72 | $30.18 | $0.26 | -4.0% | -1.4% |
| Totals | -4.2% | -1.4% | |||
| Category/Tranche | October | January | April | July | Total |
| Initial Investment | 249,820 | 249,939 | 250,180 | 249,728 | 999,667 |
| Current Tranche | -4.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | -2.2% | 1.6% |
| Previous Tranche | 5.5% | 11.0% | -0.2% | -12.5% | 1.1% |
| Tranche -2 | 0.5% | - | - | - | 0.1% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 1.6% | 17.9% | 6.4% | -14.4% | 2.9% |
| Current Balance | 253,783 | 294,649 | 266,317 | 213,858 | 1,028,607 |
| R3K Current Tranche | -1.4% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 1.3% | 2.7% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 11.3% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 1.0% | 5.5% |
| R3K Balance | 278,092 | 263,506 | 260,815 | 252,279 | 1,054,693 |
| Annualized IRR | 0.8% | 9.6% | 4.1% | -11.3% | 1.7% |
Here you also see my current tranches in aggregate are trailinh, 1.6% to 2.7%. The struggle is real my friends. My most recent tranche (10/1) has struggled out of the gate.
| Date | Differential | Value | R3K Value |
| 10/1/2014 | 0.00% | 100,000 | 100,000 |
| 11/1/2014 | 1.63% | 102,288 | 100,658 |
| 12/1/2014 | 0.30% | 101,375 | 101,075 |
| 1/1/2015 | -0.33% | 100,664 | 100,995 |
| 2/1/2015 | 1.67% | 101,281 | 99,611 |
| 3/1/2015 | 3.62% | 106,073 | 102,454 |
| 4/1/2015 | 5.09% | 106,781 | 101,695 |
| 5/1/2015 | 5.78% | 107,859 | 102,077 |
| 6/1/2015 | 5.08% | 108,213 | 103,134 |
| 7/1/2015 | 4.82% | 106,423 | 101,604 |
| 8/1/2015 | 3.71% | 107,112 | 103,404 |
| 9/1/2015 | 4.38% | 101,523 | 97,139 |
| 10/1/2015 | 6.39% | 100,703 | 94,312 |
| 11/1/2015 | 2.93% | 104,835 | 101,907 |
| 12/1/2015 | -3.48% | 99,443 | 102,926 |
| 1/1/2016 | -3.36% | 96,830 | 100,012 |
| 2/1/2016 | -0.72% | 93,797 | 94,367 |
| 3/1/2016 | 4.07% | 98,588 | 94,367 |
| 4/1/2016 | 0.34% | 102,371 | 101,548 |
| 5/1/2016 | -1.91% | 99,774 | 101,200 |
| 6/1/2016 | -0.42% | 103,145 | 103,568 |
| 7/1/2016 | -0.19% | 103,022 | 103,216 |
| 8/1/2016 | 2.56% | 109,419 | 106,857 |
| 9/1/2016 | -0.34% | 106,704 | 107,048 |
| 10/1/2016 | -0.85% | 106,377 | 107,230 |
| Current | -2.61% | 102,861 | 105,470 |
Here again I am struggling since labor day (at least not a 10% drop). Frustrating.
Warrants/Dividends
As mentioned, this part is doing better.
| Div and Warrants | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | Pct Gain Last Week | June 1 2016 |
| BAC-WTA | $4.90 | $4.75 | $0.00 | -3.1% | -5.7% | -20.6% |
| AOD | $7.64 | $7.46 | $1.57 | 18.2% | 20.4% | 17.1% |
| JQC | $7.83 | $8.47 | $0.55 | 15.2% | 14.8% | 8.4% |
| CSQ | $9.08 | $10.07 | $2.10 | 33.9% | 35.7% | 30.5% |
| DSL | $18.42 | $18.84 | $0.74 | 6.3% | 7.2% | 0.0% |
| TGONF | $10.24 | $11.02 | $1.69 | 24.1% | 18.3% | 12.5% |
| HIG-WT | $21.24 | $36.90 | $0.00 | 73.8% | 73.8% | 75.7% |
| O | $23.95 | $62.04 | $19.03 | 238.4% | 261.0% | 249.0% |
| OIBAX | $5.06 | $5.87 | $2.27 | 60.8% | 62.4% | 58.1% |
| SJT | $8.75 | $6.02 | $0.28 | -28.1% | -29.5% | -14.4% |
| GLDI | $10.68 | $9.92 | $0.52 | -2.3% | 2.3% | 0.0% |
| Totals | 13.8% | 13.8% | 9.0% |
That is all I am writing for now. Gotta go see a campus.
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