I see we are still on pace globally for the warmest year ever recorded. Not a surprise when each individual month sets a record. I did take a walk along our river trail (left) on Wednesday... it was 80 degrees, which was a record rere for October 19th.
The week was pretty solid for me. I have been busy lately and found I have not been as diligent as I'd like it maintaining my spreadsheet (ok, I found some minor mistakes). So overall on the year I am up 9%. But my select is down 5% and formula is up 5%. My MFI Index is up 4.4% and the Russell is 6.5%. My dividend portfolio has been the savior, up almost 19%.
MFI Select
Just about three weeks left on my November tranche, which is limping towards the finish line.
| 11/15/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| LCI | $34.01 | $21.40 | $0.00 | -37.1% | 6.3% |
| SAVE | $34.48 | $47.51 | $0.00 | 37.8% | 6.3% |
| PPC | $18.98 | $20.62 | $2.75 | 23.1% | 6.3% |
| VEC | $23.60 | $16.77 | $0.00 | -28.9% | 6.3% |
| VNCE | $3.99 | $5.70 | $0.00 | 42.9% | 6.3% |
| Totals | 7.6% | 6.3% | |||
| 2/1/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VEC | $19.64 | $16.77 | $0.00 | -14.6% | 13.1% |
| QCOM | $45.18 | $67.93 | $1.54 | 53.8% | 13.1% |
| PERI | $2.45 | $1.13 | $0.00 | -53.9% | 13.1% |
| DEPO | $15.34 | $23.77 | $0.00 | 55.0% | 13.1% |
| TDC | $24.02 | $29.34 | $0.00 | 22.1% | 13.1% |
| Totals | 12.5% | 13.1% | |||
| 5/6/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BRCD | $7.97 | $8.69 | $0.11 | 10.4% | 6.0% |
| CBI | $37.82 | $27.62 | $0.00 | -27.0% | 6.0% |
| HSII | $18.51 | $20.45 | $0.13 | 11.2% | 6.0% |
| RHI | $38.51 | $38.88 | $0.44 | 2.1% | 6.0% |
| UTHR | $107.99 | $111.68 | $0.00 | 3.4% | 6.0% |
| Totals | 0.0% | 6.0% | |||
| 8/15/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CSCO | $31.20 | $30.15 | $0.00 | -3.4% | -1.6% |
| GNC | $19.79 | $20.84 | $0.19 | 6.3% | -1.6% |
| VLO | $54.73 | $55.76 | $0.00 | 1.9% | -1.6% |
| MSGN | $16.68 | $19.30 | $0.00 | 15.7% | -1.6% |
| GILD | $79.33 | $74.29 | $0.47 | -5.8% | -1.6% |
| Totals | 2.9% | -1.6% | |||
| Category/Tranche | August | November | February | May | Total |
| Initial Investment | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 100,000 |
| Current Tranche | 2.9% | 7.6% | 12.5% | 0.0% | 6.0% |
| Previous Tranche | 2.8% | 69.4% | -14.3% | -25.2% | 10.9% |
| Tranche -2 | 11.2% | 14.2% | 8.5% | 18.3% | 13.0% |
| Tranche -3 | 41.4% | 43.7% | 78.3% | 33.0% | 49.1% |
| Tranche -4 | 14.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.5% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 89.9% | 199.2% | 86.4% | 17.6% | 98.3% |
| Current Balance | 47,469 | 74,789 | 46,595 | 29,407 | 198,261 |
| R3K Current Tranche | -1.6% | 6.3% | 13.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 64.4% | 67.6% | 50.6% | 33.0% | 54.6% |
| R3K Balance | 41,779 | 41,900 | 37,652 | 33,238 | 154,568 |
| Annualized IRR | 16.5% | 32.1% | 18.2% | 4.8% | 17.9% |
So it is an absolute dead heat between my open tranches (up 6.0%) and R3K (up 5.9%).
Looking month by month, you can see struggle since we moved into September:
| Date | Differential | MFI Value | R3K Value |
| 12/1/2012 | -2.20% | 99,765 | 101,965 |
| 1/1/2013 | -1.78% | 102,798 | 104,575 |
| 2/1/2013 | -2.26% | 102,594 | 104,856 |
| 3/1/2013 | -2.23% | 102,881 | 105,114 |
| 4/1/2013 | -0.43% | 106,804 | 107,234 |
| 5/1/2013 | 2.00% | 110,423 | 108,423 |
| 6/1/2013 | 4.75% | 115,831 | 111,085 |
| 7/1/2013 | 4.29% | 114,888 | 110,597 |
| 8/1/2013 | 6.91% | 124,799 | 117,889 |
| 9/1/2013 | 10.46% | 124,536 | 114,079 |
| 10/1/2013 | 19.67% | 138,655 | 118,990 |
| 11/1/2013 | 19.75% | 143,514 | 123,764 |
| 12/1/2013 | 23.70% | 150,105 | 126,405 |
| 1/1/2014 | 26.63% | 157,138 | 130,503 |
| 2/1/2014 | 24.70% | 150,619 | 125,918 |
| 3/1/2014 | 25.66% | 158,116 | 132,458 |
| 4/1/2014 | 30.38% | 162,991 | 132,616 |
| 5/1/2014 | 29.65% | 162,428 | 132,779 |
| 6/1/2014 | 31.44% | 167,001 | 135,559 |
| 7/1/2014 | 39.23% | 177,971 | 138,740 |
| 8/1/2014 | 31.13% | 167,054 | 135,922 |
| 9/1/2014 | 35.90% | 177,792 | 141,892 |
| 10/1/2014 | 29.38% | 168,321 | 138,944 |
| 11/1/2014 | 26.14% | 168,810 | 142,666 |
| 12/1/2014 | 30.22% | 176,420 | 146,198 |
| 1/1/2015 | 28.17% | 174,306 | 146,140 |
| 2/1/2015 | 20.63% | 162,833 | 142,201 |
| 3/1/2015 | 25.15% | 175,476 | 150,324 |
| 4/1/2015 | 29.95% | 178,565 | 148,612 |
| 5/1/2015 | 37.31% | 186,655 | 149,348 |
| 6/1/2015 | 51.53% | 202,897 | 151,371 |
| 7/1/2015 | 62.69% | 211,437 | 148,743 |
| 8/1/2015 | 40.75% | 192,117 | 151,369 |
| 9/1/2015 | 36.41% | 178,603 | 142,195 |
| 10/1/2015 | 43.12% | 181,175 | 138,052 |
| 11/1/2015 | 69.02% | 217,959 | 148,936 |
| 12/1/2015 | 73.49% | 223,435 | 149,946 |
| 1/1/2016 | 63.33% | 209,514 | 146,186 |
| 2/1/2016 | 49.49% | 187,428 | 137,934 |
| 3/1/2016 | 56.48% | 194,415 | 137,934 |
| 4/1/2016 | 47.34% | 195,770 | 148,430 |
| 5/1/2016 | 46.38% | 194,301 | 147,923 |
| 6/1/2016 | 51.44% | 201,999 | 150,558 |
| 7/1/2016 | 50.41% | 201,092 | 150,680 |
| 8/1/2016 | 52.72% | 207,223 | 154,501 |
| 9/1/2016 | 67.04% | 222,481 | 155,446 |
| 10/1/2016 | 42.98% | 198,563 | 155,582 |
| Current | 43.69% | 198,261 | 154,568 |
Oh well, definitely not a straight line to riches.
MFI Formula
This approach continues to be filled with question marks as it just can't seem to get any momentum.
| Date | Differential | Value | R3K Value |
| 10/1/2014 | 0.00% | 100,000 | 100,000 |
| 11/1/2014 | 1.63% | 102,288 | 100,658 |
| 12/1/2014 | 0.30% | 101,375 | 101,075 |
| 1/1/2015 | -0.33% | 100,664 | 100,995 |
| 2/1/2015 | 1.67% | 101,281 | 99,611 |
| 3/1/2015 | 3.62% | 106,073 | 102,454 |
| 4/1/2015 | 5.09% | 106,781 | 101,695 |
| 5/1/2015 | 5.78% | 107,859 | 102,077 |
| 6/1/2015 | 5.08% | 108,213 | 103,134 |
| 7/1/2015 | 4.82% | 106,423 | 101,604 |
| 8/1/2015 | 3.71% | 107,112 | 103,404 |
| 9/1/2015 | 4.38% | 101,523 | 97,139 |
| 10/1/2015 | 6.39% | 100,703 | 94,312 |
| 11/1/2015 | 2.93% | 104,835 | 101,907 |
| 12/1/2015 | -3.48% | 99,443 | 102,926 |
| 1/1/2016 | -3.36% | 96,830 | 100,012 |
| 2/1/2016 | -0.72% | 93,797 | 94,367 |
| 3/1/2016 | 4.07% | 98,588 | 94,367 |
| 4/1/2016 | 0.34% | 102,371 | 101,548 |
| 5/1/2016 | -1.91% | 99,774 | 101,200 |
| 6/1/2016 | -0.42% | 103,145 | 103,568 |
| 7/1/2016 | -0.19% | 103,022 | 103,216 |
| 8/1/2016 | 2.56% | 109,419 | 106,857 |
| 9/1/2016 | -0.34% | 106,704 | 107,048 |
| 10/1/2016 | -0.85% | 106,377 | 107,230 |
| Current | -3.19% | 102,764 | 105,953 |
Unless you count going down as momentum.
| 12/31/15 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BBY | $30.31 | $39.46 | $1.29 | 34.4% | 6.2% |
| GME | $28.34 | $25.01 | $1.11 | -7.8% | 6.2% |
| ilg | $15.89 | $16.37 | $0.36 | 5.3% | 6.2% |
| PPC | $22.22 | $20.62 | $2.75 | 5.2% | 6.2% |
| VIAB | $40.93 | $37.51 | $1.00 | -5.9% | 6.2% |
| Totals | 6.2% | 6.2% | |||
| 4/1/16 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CALM | $51.27 | $37.05 | $0.44 | -26.9% | 5.9% |
| HPQ | $12.10 | $13.80 | $0.25 | 16.1% | 5.9% |
| TIME | $15.24 | $13.80 | $0.38 | -7.0% | 5.9% |
| ilg | $13.85 | $16.37 | $0.24 | 19.9% | 5.9% |
| TSRA | $30.79 | $37.30 | $0.40 | 22.5% | 5.9% |
| Totals | 4.9% | 5.9% | |||
| 7/1/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| ilg | $16.76 | $16.37 | $0.12 | -1.6% | 1.8% |
| VIAB | $44.00 | $37.51 | $0.20 | -14.3% | 1.8% |
| CPLA | $53.22 | $59.71 | $0.39 | 12.9% | 1.8% |
| HRB | $23.62 | $23.39 | $0.22 | 0.0% | 1.8% |
| PBI | $17.69 | $17.15 | $0.19 | -2.0% | 1.8% |
| Totals | -1.0% | 1.8% | |||
| 10/3/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CPLA | $58.15 | $59.71 | $0.00 | 2.7% | -1.0% |
| LDOS | $43.01 | $41.93 | $0.00 | -2.5% | -1.0% |
| GME | $27.70 | $25.01 | $0.00 | -9.7% | -1.0% |
| PBI | $18.15 | $17.15 | $0.00 | -5.5% | -1.0% |
| CSCO | $31.72 | $30.15 | $0.26 | -4.1% | -1.0% |
| Totals | -3.8% | -1.0% |
Wow, all four tranches are losing. I hope no one started a $1b hedge fund on this strategy, though it would be beating Bill Ackman.
Dividends/Warrants
| Div and Warrants | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | Pct Gain Last Week | June 1 2016 |
| BAC-WTA | $4.90 | $5.00 | $0.00 | 2.0% | -3.1% | -20.6% |
| AOD | $7.64 | $7.37 | $1.62 | 17.7% | 18.2% | 17.1% |
| JQC | $7.83 | $8.53 | $0.55 | 16.0% | 15.2% | 8.4% |
| CSQ | $9.08 | $10.10 | $2.10 | 34.3% | 33.9% | 30.5% |
| DSL | $18.42 | $18.83 | $0.74 | 6.3% | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| TGONF | $10.24 | $11.25 | $1.69 | 26.4% | 24.1% | 12.5% |
| HIG-WT | $21.24 | $36.90 | $0.00 | 73.8% | 73.8% | 75.7% |
| O | $23.95 | $61.90 | $19.03 | 237.9% | 238.4% | 249.0% |
| OIBAX | $5.06 | $5.88 | $2.27 | 61.0% | 60.8% | 58.1% |
| SJT | $8.75 | $6.99 | $0.28 | -17.0% | -28.1% | -14.4% |
| GLDI | $10.68 | $9.90 | $0.63 | -1.4% | -2.3% | 0.0% |
| Totals | 16.5% | 13.8% | 9.0% |
Wow, this group is really doing well. Hooray. SJT and BAC had a solid week. That being said, I think I am going to exit SJT this winter. I went to their website and read their FAQ. One that cauught my eye was how much longer would the trust exist. They said conservatively 10 to 15 years and maybe more. Doing some math, if we assume 12 years, that means 144 dividend payments. If the payments average 5 cents a month, I would just break even against selling today. There is a good chance they go north of 5 cents, but it has been a while... February 2015 was 7 cents... the last one north of 6 cents.
Other Stocks
I probably have my largest concentration of speculative buys.
GNC - I sold some calls this week and am up a nice 15%
FSLR - I had sold some calls and got called out yesterday for a nice 6% gain in 2 weeks.
SBRA - this will be part of dividend portfolio in 2017 (I am up 2.5%)
PSXP - also will be part of dividend pportfolio in 2017 (up 1.5%).
EMG & OGXI - these are micro cap speculative plays (assuming will be bought). EMG has been poor, down 24% and OGXI is off 5%.
WLDN - a MFI micro cap is up 98%. I may sell at a year in December.
MGIC - another MFI micro cap, up 39%. Will think about selling at a year in December.
CWH - a recent IPO, down 8%.
VIAB, SSNI, GILD and MPAA - I bought these this week and they are up 1.5%. They are potential adds to November MFI tranche.
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