As my ten regular readers know, I have studied MFI stocks since 2006. One of my key findings has been that since thaat time, stocks that are on the screen and pay a dividend of 2.6% or higher have done MUCH better. On top of that, stocks in that subset and with a larger market cap (I picked 600m using a top 50 >100m screen) have done even better.
So about 2 years ago I started a series of tranches using that subset. While it has not been a disaster, it has not been a home run either.
Just for fun, or maybe frustration, I pulled a list of stocks that are in my open tracking portfolios and have a dividend of at least 2.6%. Here is the list:
| Stock | Initial Price | End Price | Percent Change | Mkt Cap | Yield |
| MSB | 8.59 | 9.50 | 10.6% | 117 | 3.4% |
| LBMH | 2.41 | 3.35 | 39.0% | 129 | 5.4% |
| CLCT | 14.39 | 19.56 | 35.9% | 135 | 9.7% |
| CLCT | 14.63 | 19.56 | 33.7% | 138 | 9.6% |
| CLCT | 15.06 | 19.56 | 29.9% | 139 | 9.3% |
| CLCT | 15.49 | 19.56 | 26.3% | 146 | 9.0% |
| CLCT | 15.98 | 19.56 | 22.4% | 154 | 8.8% |
| BBSI | 27.43 | 45.01 | 64.1% | 199 | 3.2% |
| MCFT | 11.05 | 11.65 | 5.4% | 207 | 38.9% |
| MCFT | 11.40 | 11.65 | 2.2% | 212 | 37.7% |
| MCFT | 11.48 | 11.65 | 1.5% | 213 | 37.5% |
| MCFT | 11.99 | 11.65 | -2.8% | 222 | 35.9% |
| PMTS | 4.03 | 5.75 | 42.7% | 232 | 4.5% |
| BPT | 13.07 | 23.90 | 82.8% | 300 | 21.8% |
| HSII | 16.76 | 20.45 | 22.0% | 316 | 3.1% |
| PETS | 16.34 | 20.69 | 26.6% | 339 | 4.4% |
| SPOK | 16.64 | 17.32 | 4.1% | 342 | 3.0% |
| PETS | 16.32 | 20.69 | 26.8% | 342 | 4.4% |
| HSII | 18.55 | 20.45 | 10.2% | 345 | 2.8% |
| PETS | 16.48 | 20.69 | 25.5% | 345 | 4.4% |
| SPOK | 16.41 | 17.32 | 5.5% | 348 | 3.0% |
| PETS | 16.63 | 20.69 | 24.4% | 348 | 4.3% |
| BPT | 15.10 | 23.90 | 58.2% | 349 | 18.0% |
| HSII | 18.73 | 20.45 | 9.2% | 350 | 2.8% |
| SPOK | 16.50 | 17.32 | 5.0% | 350 | 3.0% |
| MED | 28.81 | 40.89 | 41.9% | 351 | 3.5% |
| SPOK | 16.95 | 17.32 | 2.2% | 352 | 2.9% |
| BPT | 15.94 | 23.90 | 49.9% | 352 | 12.9% |
| PETS | 17.09 | 20.69 | 21.1% | 354 | 4.4% |
| HSII | 19.27 | 20.45 | 6.1% | 358 | 2.7% |
| BPT | 15.60 | 23.90 | 53.2% | 358 | 18.3% |
| HSII | 19.33 | 20.45 | 5.8% | 362 | 2.7% |
| SPOK | 17.82 | 17.32 | -2.8% | 366 | 2.8% |
| PETS | 17.48 | 20.69 | 18.3% | 366 | 4.1% |
| PETS | 17.78 | 20.69 | 16.4% | 369 | 4.1% |
| BPT | 16.91 | 23.90 | 41.3% | 374 | 12.2% |
| SPOK | 18.34 | 17.32 | -5.6% | 381 | 2.7% |
| BPT | 17.21 | 23.90 | 38.9% | 389 | 16.6% |
| BPT | 18.07 | 23.90 | 32.3% | 399 | 11.4% |
| PDLI | 2.86 | 3.15 | 10.1% | 470 | 7.0% |
| PDLI | 3.07 | 3.15 | 2.8% | 511 | 6.5% |
| PDLI | 3.05 | 3.15 | 3.4% | 514 | 19.7% |
| IQNT | 14.93 | 16.26 | 8.9% | 517 | 4.3% |
| OUTR | 30.49 | 52.00 | 70.6% | 524 | 3.9% |
| RECN | 13.95 | 14.45 | 3.6% | 525 | 2.9% |
| CPLA | 42.97 | 59.71 | 38.9% | 526 | 3.6% |
| PDLI | 3.14 | 3.15 | 0.3% | 529 | 6.4% |
| BPT | 22.50 | 23.90 | 6.2% | 534 | 12.5% |
| CPLA | 44.75 | 59.71 | 33.4% | 541 | 3.5% |
| CPLA | 43.81 | 59.71 | 36.3% | 541 | 3.4% |
| RECN | 14.94 | 14.45 | -3.3% | 541 | 2.9% |
| BPT | 23.44 | 23.90 | 1.9% | 541 | 10.3% |
| RECN | 15.08 | 14.45 | -4.2% | 546 | 2.9% |
| PDLI | 3.29 | 3.15 | -4.3% | 549 | 6.1% |
| IQNT | 15.87 | 16.26 | 2.4% | 549 | 3.8% |
| PDLI | 3.35 | 3.15 | -6.0% | 550 | 6.0% |
| IQNT | 16.14 | 16.26 | 0.7% | 552 | 4.0% |
| CPLA | 45.23 | 59.71 | 32.0% | 554 | 3.4% |
| IQNT | 16.48 | 16.26 | -1.3% | 567 | 3.9% |
| CPLA | 46.22 | 59.71 | 29.2% | 570 | 3.2% |
| BPT | 24.82 | 23.90 | -3.7% | 573 | 9.7% |
| PDLI | 3.52 | 3.15 | -10.5% | 578 | 5.7% |
| PDLI | 3.43 | 3.15 | -8.3% | 579 | 17.5% |
| IQNT | 16.69 | 16.26 | -2.6% | 580 | 3.6% |
| OUTR | 32.66 | 52.00 | 59.2% | 583 | 3.7% |
| IQNT | 16.88 | 16.26 | -3.7% | 584 | 3.6% |
| IQNT | 17.26 | 16.26 | -5.8% | 599 | 3.5% |
| CPLA | 51.98 | 59.71 | 14.9% | 613 | 3.0% |
| CPLA | 51.20 | 59.71 | 16.6% | 614 | 3.0% |
| OUTR | 36.29 | 52.00 | 43.3% | 618 | 6.6% |
| CPLA | 51.76 | 59.71 | 15.4% | 621 | 3.0% |
| CPLA | 52.31 | 59.71 | 14.1% | 623 | 3.0% |
| PDLI | 3.76 | 3.15 | -16.3% | 628 | 5.3% |
| OUTR | 35.31 | 52.00 | 47.3% | 630 | 3.4% |
| PDLI | 3.70 | 3.15 | -14.8% | 649 | 16.2% |
| IQNT | 18.81 | 16.26 | -13.6% | 653 | 3.2% |
| CPLA | 58.04 | 59.71 | 2.9% | 674 | 2.7% |
| IILG | 11.50 | 16.37 | 42.3% | 677 | 4.2% |
| CPLA | 59.49 | 59.71 | 0.4% | 695 | 2.6% |
| IQNT | 19.97 | 16.26 | -18.6% | 699 | 3.0% |
| OUTR | 39.82 | 52.00 | 30.6% | 704 | 6.0% |
| OUTR | 41.65 | 52.00 | 24.9% | 709 | 5.8% |
| OUTR | 41.52 | 52.00 | 25.2% | 737 | 5.8% |
| PDLI | 4.27 | 3.15 | -26.2% | 749 | 14.1% |
| IILG | 13.28 | 16.37 | 23.3% | 775 | 3.6% |
| IILG | 13.72 | 16.37 | 19.3% | 801 | 3.5% |
| IILG | 14.00 | 16.37 | 16.9% | 817 | 3.4% |
| OUTR | 51.87 | 52.00 | 0.3% | 893 | 4.6% |
| IILG | 15.24 | 16.37 | 7.4% | 897 | 3.1% |
| IILG | 15.12 | 16.37 | 8.3% | 897 | 3.2% |
| OUTR | 52.06 | 52.00 | -0.1% | 906 | 4.6% |
| IILG | 15.79 | 16.37 | 3.7% | 945 | 3.0% |
| IILG | 17.10 | 16.37 | -4.3% | 1,014 | 2.8% |
| IILG | 17.86 | 16.37 | -8.3% | 1,034 | 2.7% |
| BKE | 23.75 | 21.00 | -11.6% | 1,168 | 4.2% |
| BKE | 23.85 | 21.00 | -12.0% | 1,184 | 4.2% |
| BKE | 25.45 | 21.00 | -17.5% | 1,262 | 3.9% |
| BKE | 26.51 | 21.00 | -20.8% | 1,304 | 3.8% |
| BKE | 27.07 | 21.00 | -22.4% | 1,332 | 3.7% |
| BKE | 27.59 | 21.00 | -23.9% | 1,379 | 10.9% |
| TIME | 13.32 | 13.80 | 3.6% | 1,453 | 5.7% |
| TSRA | 28.61 | 37.30 | 30.4% | 1,473 | 2.8% |
| BKE | 28.56 | 21.00 | -26.5% | 1,493 | 7.0% |
| TSRA | 29.21 | 37.30 | 27.7% | 1,504 | 2.7% |
| BKE | 30.67 | 21.00 | -31.5% | 1,517 | 3.3% |
| BKE | 30.82 | 21.00 | -31.9% | 1,540 | 3.2% |
| TSRA | 30.00 | 37.30 | 24.3% | 1,544 | 2.7% |
| BKE | 30.40 | 21.00 | -30.9% | 1,589 | 3.0% |
| TIME | 14.68 | 13.80 | -6.0% | 1,602 | 5.2% |
| BKE | 32.23 | 21.00 | -34.9% | 1,608 | 3.1% |
| TIME | 14.81 | 13.80 | -6.8% | 1,616 | 5.1% |
| BKE | 32.89 | 21.00 | -36.1% | 1,720 | 2.8% |
| CALM | 41.90 | 37.05 | -11.6% | 2,034 | 4.2% |
| CALM | 44.08 | 37.05 | -15.9% | 2,140 | 4.0% |
| CALM | 44.32 | 37.05 | -16.4% | 2,164 | 4.0% |
| CALM | 45.74 | 37.05 | -19.0% | 2,220 | 3.8% |
| CALM | 45.23 | 37.05 | -18.1% | 2,247 | 6.6% |
| CALM | 49.68 | 37.05 | -25.4% | 2,431 | 3.5% |
| CALM | 50.03 | 37.05 | -25.9% | 2,448 | 6.0% |
| CALM | 50.22 | 37.05 | -26.2% | 2,459 | 3.5% |
| CALM | 51.98 | 37.05 | -28.7% | 2,543 | 5.8% |
| CALM | 52.18 | 37.05 | -29.0% | 2,593 | 7.5% |
| CALM | 54.63 | 37.05 | -32.2% | 2,714 | 7.2% |
| GME | 25.25 | 25.01 | -0.9% | 2,749 | 5.7% |
| GME | 26.23 | 25.01 | -4.7% | 2,814 | 5.6% |
| GME | 27.59 | 25.01 | -9.4% | 2,869 | 5.4% |
| LDOS | 39.25 | 41.93 | 6.8% | 2,887 | 3.3% |
| GME | 27.01 | 25.01 | -7.4% | 2,941 | 5.3% |
| GME | 28.06 | 25.01 | -10.9% | 2,989 | 5.3% |
| GME | 29.49 | 25.01 | -15.2% | 3,127 | 5.0% |
| LDOS | 43.28 | 41.93 | -3.1% | 3,159 | 3.0% |
| GME | 29.42 | 25.01 | -15.0% | 3,204 | 4.9% |
| GME | 30.55 | 25.01 | -18.1% | 3,219 | 4.8% |
| PBI | 18.16 | 17.15 | -5.6% | 3,370 | 4.1% |
| GME | 31.95 | 25.01 | -21.7% | 3,388 | 4.6% |
| PBI | 17.62 | 17.15 | -2.7% | 3,398 | 4.3% |
| PBI | 18.77 | 17.15 | -8.6% | 3,483 | 4.0% |
| PBI | 18.36 | 17.15 | -6.6% | 3,543 | 4.1% |
| PBI | 17.67 | 17.15 | -3.0% | 3,554 | 4.2% |
| PBI | 19.11 | 17.15 | -10.3% | 3,688 | 3.9% |
| GME | 34.33 | 25.01 | -27.1% | 3,795 | 4.2% |
| PBI | 18.97 | 17.15 | -9.6% | 3,877 | 4.0% |
| PBI | 20.01 | 17.15 | -14.3% | 4,089 | 3.7% |
| PBI | 19.83 | 17.15 | -13.5% | 4,089 | 3.8% |
| PBI | 20.47 | 17.15 | -16.2% | 4,117 | 3.7% |
| PBI | 20.40 | 17.15 | -16.0% | 4,170 | 3.7% |
| PBI | 21.05 | 17.15 | -18.5% | 4,234 | 3.6% |
| TGNA | 20.74 | 20.12 | -3.0% | 4,477 | 2.7% |
| KING | 14.96 | 18.00 | 20.3% | 4,709 | 6.3% |
| GME | 43.92 | 25.01 | -43.1% | 4,879 | 3.3% |
| PPC | 17.00 | 20.62 | 21.3% | 4,924 | 33.9% |
| HRB | 23.15 | 23.39 | 1.0% | 5,072 | 3.8% |
| HRB | 22.77 | 23.39 | 2.7% | 5,156 | 3.5% |
| HRB | 23.55 | 23.39 | -0.7% | 5,246 | 3.7% |
| HRB | 24.02 | 23.39 | -2.6% | 5,350 | 3.7% |
| PPC | 18.81 | 20.62 | 9.6% | 5,447 | 30.7% |
| PPC | 19.78 | 20.62 | 4.2% | 5,728 | 29.2% |
| PPC | 19.86 | 20.62 | 3.8% | 5,751 | 29.1% |
| BBY | 30.77 | 39.46 | 28.2% | 10,169 | 3.6% |
| BBY | 31.50 | 39.46 | 25.3% | 10,365 | 3.6% |
| BBY | 29.29 | 39.46 | 34.7% | 10,501 | 3.1% |
| BBY | 31.21 | 39.46 | 26.4% | 10,546 | 2.9% |
| BBY | 32.67 | 39.46 | 20.8% | 10,797 | 3.4% |
| BBY | 30.06 | 39.46 | 31.3% | 10,851 | 3.1% |
| BBY | 33.35 | 39.46 | 18.3% | 10,886 | 3.4% |
| CA | 26.78 | 32.20 | 20.2% | 12,035 | 3.7% |
| BBY | 33.45 | 39.46 | 18.0% | 12,059 | 2.8% |
| CA | 27.51 | 32.20 | 17.1% | 12,247 | 3.6% |
| VIAB | 35.32 | 37.51 | 6.2% | 14,351 | 4.5% |
| VIAB | 39.08 | 37.51 | -4.0% | 15,717 | 4.1% |
| VIAB | 40.88 | 37.51 | -8.2% | 16,312 | 3.9% |
| VIAB | 40.13 | 37.51 | -6.5% | 16,382 | 4.0% |
| VIAB | 41.24 | 37.51 | -9.0% | 16,454 | 3.9% |
| VIAB | 43.12 | 37.51 | -13.0% | 17,341 | 3.7% |
| HPQ | 9.43 | 13.80 | 46.3% | 17,517 | 5.3% |
| VIAB | 43.58 | 37.51 | -13.9% | 17,528 | 3.7% |
| VIAB | 45.22 | 37.51 | -17.0% | 18,015 | 3.5% |
| VIAB | 44.49 | 37.51 | -15.7% | 18,169 | 3.6% |
| HPQ | 10.33 | 13.80 | 33.5% | 18,482 | 4.8% |
| VIAB | 47.63 | 37.51 | -21.3% | 19,620 | 3.4% |
| VIAB | 49.42 | 37.51 | -24.1% | 20,362 | 3.2% |
| HPQ | 11.85 | 13.80 | 16.4% | 20,966 | 4.2% |
| HPQ | 11.50 | 13.80 | 20.0% | 21,359 | 4.3% |
| HPQ | 12.44 | 13.80 | 10.9% | 21,756 | 4.0% |
| HPQ | 12.38 | 13.80 | 11.4% | 21,904 | 4.0% |
| HPQ | 12.93 | 13.80 | 6.7% | 22,508 | 3.9% |
| HPQ | 12.12 | 13.80 | 13.8% | 22,572 | 4.1% |
| HPQ | 13.89 | 13.80 | -0.6% | 23,971 | 3.6% |
| HPQ | 14.26 | 13.80 | -3.2% | 24,564 | 3.5% |
| HPQ | 15.53 | 13.80 | -11.1% | 26,510 | 3.2% |
| QCOM | 44.12 | 67.93 | 54.0% | 67,783 | 4.4% |
| QCOM | 47.23 | 67.93 | 43.8% | 73,975 | 4.1% |
| QCOM | 48.64 | 67.93 | 39.7% | 76,177 | 3.9% |
| QCOM | 57.25 | 67.93 | 18.7% | 93,765 | 3.4% |
| CSCO | 23.17 | 30.15 | 30.1% | 120,901 | 3.6% |
| CSCO | 25.72 | 30.15 | 17.2% | 133,423 | 4.0% |
| CSCO | 26.25 | 30.15 | 14.9% | 138,002 | 3.2% |
| CSCO | 26.40 | 30.15 | 14.2% | 138,840 | 3.2% |
| CSCO | 27.23 | 30.15 | 10.7% | 141,254 | 3.8% |
| CSCO | 27.67 | 30.15 | 9.0% | 142,214 | 3.8% |
| CSCO | 28.20 | 30.15 | 6.9% | 144,979 | 3.7% |
| CSCO | 28.42 | 30.15 | 6.1% | 145,323 | 3.7% |
| CSCO | 27.88 | 30.15 | 8.1% | 146,702 | 3.0% |
| CSCO | 30.28 | 30.15 | -0.4% | 153,688 | 3.4% |
| CSCO | 31.09 | 30.15 | -3.0% | 156,938 | 3.3% |
| CSCO | 31.46 | 30.15 | -4.2% | 158,790 | 3.3% |
Now,the average stock here has a return of 6.1% (keep in mind some of these are from portfolio started just a month ago and some are more than 11 months). That corresponds to all open MFI stocks in same time frame averaging 4.6%. So Voila, this approach is better as predicted! (note r3K is also 4.6%).
So why am I losing? Well, as my smart readers have probably picked up from looking at this table (sorted in market cap order), the large cap dividend stocks have been the laggards.
Over 2b: 5.2%
Over $1b: 5.0%
Over $600m: 5.0%
Under $600m: 8.3%
Now I should note this is a recent phenomena. If I go back a year it is -2.2% for >600m and -6.5% for under 600m (r3K was 1.9% as MFI just sucked that year).
Not sure this means a change in strategy, but it is a bit frustrating.
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