Saturday, October 22, 2016

Go Figure - Frustrating Dividend Stocks

Frustrating Dividend Stocks

As my ten regular readers know, I have studied MFI stocks since 2006.  One of my key findings has been that since thaat time, stocks that are on the screen and pay a dividend of 2.6% or higher have done MUCH better.  On top of that, stocks in that subset and with a larger market cap (I picked 600m using a top 50 >100m screen) have done even better.

So about 2 years ago I started a series of tranches using that subset.  While it has not been a disaster, it has not been a home run either.

Just for fun,  or maybe frustration, I pulled a list of stocks that are in my open tracking portfolios and have a dividend of at least 2.6%.  Here is the list:

Stock  Initial Price   End Price  Percent Change  Mkt Cap  Yield
MSB                8.59             9.50 10.6%            117 3.4%
LBMH                2.41             3.35 39.0%            129 5.4%
CLCT              14.39           19.56 35.9%            135 9.7%
CLCT              14.63           19.56 33.7%            138 9.6%
CLCT              15.06           19.56 29.9%            139 9.3%
CLCT              15.49           19.56 26.3%            146 9.0%
CLCT              15.98           19.56 22.4%            154 8.8%
BBSI              27.43           45.01 64.1%            199 3.2%
MCFT              11.05           11.65 5.4%            207 38.9%
MCFT              11.40           11.65 2.2%            212 37.7%
MCFT              11.48           11.65 1.5%            213 37.5%
MCFT              11.99           11.65 -2.8%            222 35.9%
PMTS                4.03             5.75 42.7%            232 4.5%
BPT              13.07           23.90 82.8%            300 21.8%
HSII              16.76           20.45 22.0%            316 3.1%
PETS              16.34           20.69 26.6%            339 4.4%
SPOK              16.64           17.32 4.1%            342 3.0%
PETS              16.32           20.69 26.8%            342 4.4%
HSII              18.55           20.45 10.2%            345 2.8%
PETS              16.48           20.69 25.5%            345 4.4%
SPOK              16.41           17.32 5.5%            348 3.0%
PETS              16.63           20.69 24.4%            348 4.3%
BPT              15.10           23.90 58.2%            349 18.0%
HSII              18.73           20.45 9.2%            350 2.8%
SPOK              16.50           17.32 5.0%            350 3.0%
MED              28.81           40.89 41.9%            351 3.5%
SPOK              16.95           17.32 2.2%            352 2.9%
BPT              15.94           23.90 49.9%            352 12.9%
PETS              17.09           20.69 21.1%            354 4.4%
HSII              19.27           20.45 6.1%            358 2.7%
BPT              15.60           23.90 53.2%            358 18.3%
HSII              19.33           20.45 5.8%            362 2.7%
SPOK              17.82           17.32 -2.8%            366 2.8%
PETS              17.48           20.69 18.3%            366 4.1%
PETS              17.78           20.69 16.4%            369 4.1%
BPT              16.91           23.90 41.3%            374 12.2%
SPOK              18.34           17.32 -5.6%            381 2.7%
BPT              17.21           23.90 38.9%            389 16.6%
BPT              18.07           23.90 32.3%            399 11.4%
PDLI                2.86             3.15 10.1%            470 7.0%
PDLI                3.07             3.15 2.8%            511 6.5%
PDLI                3.05             3.15 3.4%            514 19.7%
IQNT              14.93           16.26 8.9%            517 4.3%
OUTR              30.49           52.00 70.6%            524 3.9%
RECN              13.95           14.45 3.6%            525 2.9%
CPLA              42.97           59.71 38.9%            526 3.6%
PDLI                3.14             3.15 0.3%            529 6.4%
BPT              22.50           23.90 6.2%            534 12.5%
CPLA              44.75           59.71 33.4%            541 3.5%
CPLA              43.81           59.71 36.3%            541 3.4%
RECN              14.94           14.45 -3.3%            541 2.9%
BPT              23.44           23.90 1.9%            541 10.3%
RECN              15.08           14.45 -4.2%            546 2.9%
PDLI                3.29             3.15 -4.3%            549 6.1%
IQNT              15.87           16.26 2.4%            549 3.8%
PDLI                3.35             3.15 -6.0%            550 6.0%
IQNT              16.14           16.26 0.7%            552 4.0%
CPLA              45.23           59.71 32.0%            554 3.4%
IQNT              16.48           16.26 -1.3%            567 3.9%
CPLA              46.22           59.71 29.2%            570 3.2%
BPT              24.82           23.90 -3.7%            573 9.7%
PDLI                3.52             3.15 -10.5%            578 5.7%
PDLI                3.43             3.15 -8.3%            579 17.5%
IQNT              16.69           16.26 -2.6%            580 3.6%
OUTR              32.66           52.00 59.2%            583 3.7%
IQNT              16.88           16.26 -3.7%            584 3.6%
IQNT              17.26           16.26 -5.8%            599 3.5%
CPLA              51.98           59.71 14.9%            613 3.0%
CPLA              51.20           59.71 16.6%            614 3.0%
OUTR              36.29           52.00 43.3%            618 6.6%
CPLA              51.76           59.71 15.4%            621 3.0%
CPLA              52.31           59.71 14.1%            623 3.0%
PDLI                3.76             3.15 -16.3%            628 5.3%
OUTR              35.31           52.00 47.3%            630 3.4%
PDLI                3.70             3.15 -14.8%            649 16.2%
IQNT              18.81           16.26 -13.6%            653 3.2%
CPLA              58.04           59.71 2.9%            674 2.7%
IILG              11.50           16.37 42.3%            677 4.2%
CPLA              59.49           59.71 0.4%            695 2.6%
IQNT              19.97           16.26 -18.6%            699 3.0%
OUTR              39.82           52.00 30.6%            704 6.0%
OUTR              41.65           52.00 24.9%            709 5.8%
OUTR              41.52           52.00 25.2%            737 5.8%
PDLI                4.27             3.15 -26.2%            749 14.1%
IILG              13.28           16.37 23.3%            775 3.6%
IILG              13.72           16.37 19.3%            801 3.5%
IILG              14.00           16.37 16.9%            817 3.4%
OUTR              51.87           52.00 0.3%            893 4.6%
IILG              15.24           16.37 7.4%            897 3.1%
IILG              15.12           16.37 8.3%            897 3.2%
OUTR              52.06           52.00 -0.1%            906 4.6%
IILG              15.79           16.37 3.7%            945 3.0%
IILG              17.10           16.37 -4.3%         1,014 2.8%
IILG              17.86           16.37 -8.3%         1,034 2.7%
BKE              23.75           21.00 -11.6%         1,168 4.2%
BKE              23.85           21.00 -12.0%         1,184 4.2%
BKE              25.45           21.00 -17.5%         1,262 3.9%
BKE              26.51           21.00 -20.8%         1,304 3.8%
BKE              27.07           21.00 -22.4%         1,332 3.7%
BKE              27.59           21.00 -23.9%         1,379 10.9%
TIME              13.32           13.80 3.6%         1,453 5.7%
TSRA              28.61           37.30 30.4%         1,473 2.8%
BKE              28.56           21.00 -26.5%         1,493 7.0%
TSRA              29.21           37.30 27.7%         1,504 2.7%
BKE              30.67           21.00 -31.5%         1,517 3.3%
BKE              30.82           21.00 -31.9%         1,540 3.2%
TSRA              30.00           37.30 24.3%         1,544 2.7%
BKE              30.40           21.00 -30.9%         1,589 3.0%
TIME              14.68           13.80 -6.0%         1,602 5.2%
BKE              32.23           21.00 -34.9%         1,608 3.1%
TIME              14.81           13.80 -6.8%         1,616 5.1%
BKE              32.89           21.00 -36.1%         1,720 2.8%
CALM              41.90           37.05 -11.6%         2,034 4.2%
CALM              44.08           37.05 -15.9%         2,140 4.0%
CALM              44.32           37.05 -16.4%         2,164 4.0%
CALM              45.74           37.05 -19.0%         2,220 3.8%
CALM              45.23           37.05 -18.1%         2,247 6.6%
CALM              49.68           37.05 -25.4%         2,431 3.5%
CALM              50.03           37.05 -25.9%         2,448 6.0%
CALM              50.22           37.05 -26.2%         2,459 3.5%
CALM              51.98           37.05 -28.7%         2,543 5.8%
CALM              52.18           37.05 -29.0%         2,593 7.5%
CALM              54.63           37.05 -32.2%         2,714 7.2%
GME              25.25           25.01 -0.9%         2,749 5.7%
GME              26.23           25.01 -4.7%         2,814 5.6%
GME              27.59           25.01 -9.4%         2,869 5.4%
LDOS              39.25           41.93 6.8%         2,887 3.3%
GME              27.01           25.01 -7.4%         2,941 5.3%
GME              28.06           25.01 -10.9%         2,989 5.3%
GME              29.49           25.01 -15.2%         3,127 5.0%
LDOS              43.28           41.93 -3.1%         3,159 3.0%
GME              29.42           25.01 -15.0%         3,204 4.9%
GME              30.55           25.01 -18.1%         3,219 4.8%
PBI              18.16           17.15 -5.6%         3,370 4.1%
GME              31.95           25.01 -21.7%         3,388 4.6%
PBI              17.62           17.15 -2.7%         3,398 4.3%
PBI              18.77           17.15 -8.6%         3,483 4.0%
PBI              18.36           17.15 -6.6%         3,543 4.1%
PBI              17.67           17.15 -3.0%         3,554 4.2%
PBI              19.11           17.15 -10.3%         3,688 3.9%
GME              34.33           25.01 -27.1%         3,795 4.2%
PBI              18.97           17.15 -9.6%         3,877 4.0%
PBI              20.01           17.15 -14.3%         4,089 3.7%
PBI              19.83           17.15 -13.5%         4,089 3.8%
PBI              20.47           17.15 -16.2%         4,117 3.7%
PBI              20.40           17.15 -16.0%         4,170 3.7%
PBI              21.05           17.15 -18.5%         4,234 3.6%
TGNA              20.74           20.12 -3.0%         4,477 2.7%
KING              14.96           18.00 20.3%         4,709 6.3%
GME              43.92           25.01 -43.1%         4,879 3.3%
PPC              17.00           20.62 21.3%         4,924 33.9%
HRB              23.15           23.39 1.0%         5,072 3.8%
HRB              22.77           23.39 2.7%         5,156 3.5%
HRB              23.55           23.39 -0.7%         5,246 3.7%
HRB              24.02           23.39 -2.6%         5,350 3.7%
PPC              18.81           20.62 9.6%         5,447 30.7%
PPC              19.78           20.62 4.2%         5,728 29.2%
PPC              19.86           20.62 3.8%         5,751 29.1%
BBY              30.77           39.46 28.2%       10,169 3.6%
BBY              31.50           39.46 25.3%       10,365 3.6%
BBY              29.29           39.46 34.7%       10,501 3.1%
BBY              31.21           39.46 26.4%       10,546 2.9%
BBY              32.67           39.46 20.8%       10,797 3.4%
BBY              30.06           39.46 31.3%       10,851 3.1%
BBY              33.35           39.46 18.3%       10,886 3.4%
CA              26.78           32.20 20.2%       12,035 3.7%
BBY              33.45           39.46 18.0%       12,059 2.8%
CA              27.51           32.20 17.1%       12,247 3.6%
VIAB              35.32           37.51 6.2%       14,351 4.5%
VIAB              39.08           37.51 -4.0%       15,717 4.1%
VIAB              40.88           37.51 -8.2%       16,312 3.9%
VIAB              40.13           37.51 -6.5%       16,382 4.0%
VIAB              41.24           37.51 -9.0%       16,454 3.9%
VIAB              43.12           37.51 -13.0%       17,341 3.7%
HPQ                9.43           13.80 46.3%       17,517 5.3%
VIAB              43.58           37.51 -13.9%       17,528 3.7%
VIAB              45.22           37.51 -17.0%       18,015 3.5%
VIAB              44.49           37.51 -15.7%       18,169 3.6%
HPQ              10.33           13.80 33.5%       18,482 4.8%
VIAB              47.63           37.51 -21.3%       19,620 3.4%
VIAB              49.42           37.51 -24.1%       20,362 3.2%
HPQ              11.85           13.80 16.4%       20,966 4.2%
HPQ              11.50           13.80 20.0%       21,359 4.3%
HPQ              12.44           13.80 10.9%       21,756 4.0%
HPQ              12.38           13.80 11.4%       21,904 4.0%
HPQ              12.93           13.80 6.7%       22,508 3.9%
HPQ              12.12           13.80 13.8%       22,572 4.1%
HPQ              13.89           13.80 -0.6%       23,971 3.6%
HPQ              14.26           13.80 -3.2%       24,564 3.5%
HPQ              15.53           13.80 -11.1%       26,510 3.2%
QCOM              44.12           67.93 54.0%       67,783 4.4%
QCOM              47.23           67.93 43.8%       73,975 4.1%
QCOM              48.64           67.93 39.7%       76,177 3.9%
QCOM              57.25           67.93 18.7%       93,765 3.4%
CSCO              23.17           30.15 30.1%     120,901 3.6%
CSCO              25.72           30.15 17.2%     133,423 4.0%
CSCO              26.25           30.15 14.9%     138,002 3.2%
CSCO              26.40           30.15 14.2%     138,840 3.2%
CSCO              27.23           30.15 10.7%     141,254 3.8%
CSCO              27.67           30.15 9.0%     142,214 3.8%
CSCO              28.20           30.15 6.9%     144,979 3.7%
CSCO              28.42           30.15 6.1%     145,323 3.7%
CSCO              27.88           30.15 8.1%     146,702 3.0%
CSCO              30.28           30.15 -0.4%     153,688 3.4%
CSCO              31.09           30.15 -3.0%     156,938 3.3%
CSCO              31.46           30.15 -4.2%     158,790 3.3%


Now,the average stock here has a return of 6.1% (keep  in mind some of these are from portfolio started just a month ago and some are more than 11 months).  That corresponds to all open MFI stocks in same time frame averaging 4.6%. So Voila, this approach is better as predicted! (note r3K is also 4.6%).

So why am I losing?  Well, as my smart readers have probably picked up from looking at this table (sorted in market cap order), the large cap dividend stocks have been the laggards.

Over 2b: 5.2%
Over $1b: 5.0%
Over $600m: 5.0%
Under $600m: 8.3%

Now I should note this is a recent phenomena.  If I go back a year it is -2.2% for >600m and -6.5% for under 600m (r3K was 1.9% as MFI just sucked that year).

Not sure this means a change in strategy, but it is a bit frustrating.

No comments: