Well, it seems my stocks took a dive this past week. It has been a tough stretch, I have had a few crash and burns. VEC earlier this quarter and now GNC. I feel like I am carrying the proverbial match through the proverbial dynamite factory. I wonder if Bill Ackman feels like that when CMG crashes?
I will say after weeks/quarters like this, I question whether it is worth the effort. I was down 2.3% on the week. The markets were down about 1%. And I am now down 5.8% since August 31st. I am looking forward to putting September/October in the rear view mirror.
So anyway, I am still beating the markets for the year, but it has gotten tighter, my lead is down to a mere 83 basis points. I will publish MFI tracking results later this weekend. I have not done the work yet, but I suspect we will see a similar pattern... MFI has not been working as well since the end of August (not that it has been crowned with glory of late).
MFI Select
Wow, it was just a bad, bad week. A lot of it was earnings driven.
- GNC -35%. That hurt.
- HSII -14%. That hurt.
- TDC -8%
- PERI -6%
Deep sigh.
| Date | Differential | MFI Value | R3K Value |
| 12/1/2012 | -2.20% | 99,765 | 101,965 |
| 1/1/2013 | -1.78% | 102,798 | 104,575 |
| 2/1/2013 | -2.26% | 102,594 | 104,856 |
| 3/1/2013 | -2.23% | 102,881 | 105,114 |
| 4/1/2013 | -0.43% | 106,804 | 107,234 |
| 5/1/2013 | 2.00% | 110,423 | 108,423 |
| 6/1/2013 | 4.75% | 115,831 | 111,085 |
| 7/1/2013 | 4.29% | 114,888 | 110,597 |
| 8/1/2013 | 6.91% | 124,799 | 117,889 |
| 9/1/2013 | 10.46% | 124,536 | 114,079 |
| 10/1/2013 | 19.67% | 138,655 | 118,990 |
| 11/1/2013 | 19.75% | 143,514 | 123,764 |
| 12/1/2013 | 23.70% | 150,105 | 126,405 |
| 1/1/2014 | 26.63% | 157,138 | 130,503 |
| 2/1/2014 | 24.70% | 150,619 | 125,918 |
| 3/1/2014 | 25.66% | 158,116 | 132,458 |
| 4/1/2014 | 30.38% | 162,991 | 132,616 |
| 5/1/2014 | 29.65% | 162,428 | 132,779 |
| 6/1/2014 | 31.44% | 167,001 | 135,559 |
| 7/1/2014 | 39.23% | 177,971 | 138,740 |
| 8/1/2014 | 31.13% | 167,054 | 135,922 |
| 9/1/2014 | 35.90% | 177,792 | 141,892 |
| 10/1/2014 | 29.38% | 168,321 | 138,944 |
| 11/1/2014 | 26.14% | 168,810 | 142,666 |
| 12/1/2014 | 30.22% | 176,420 | 146,198 |
| 1/1/2015 | 28.17% | 174,306 | 146,140 |
| 2/1/2015 | 20.63% | 162,833 | 142,201 |
| 3/1/2015 | 25.15% | 175,476 | 150,324 |
| 4/1/2015 | 29.95% | 178,565 | 148,612 |
| 5/1/2015 | 37.31% | 186,655 | 149,348 |
| 6/1/2015 | 51.53% | 202,897 | 151,371 |
| 7/1/2015 | 62.69% | 211,437 | 148,743 |
| 8/1/2015 | 40.75% | 192,117 | 151,369 |
| 9/1/2015 | 36.41% | 178,603 | 142,195 |
| 10/1/2015 | 43.12% | 181,175 | 138,052 |
| 11/1/2015 | 69.02% | 217,959 | 148,936 |
| 12/1/2015 | 73.49% | 223,435 | 149,946 |
| 1/1/2016 | 63.33% | 209,514 | 146,186 |
| 2/1/2016 | 49.49% | 187,428 | 137,934 |
| 3/1/2016 | 56.48% | 194,415 | 137,934 |
| 4/1/2016 | 47.34% | 195,770 | 148,430 |
| 5/1/2016 | 46.38% | 194,301 | 147,923 |
| 6/1/2016 | 51.44% | 201,999 | 150,558 |
| 7/1/2016 | 50.41% | 201,092 | 150,680 |
| 8/1/2016 | 52.72% | 207,223 | 154,501 |
| 9/1/2016 | 67.04% | 222,481 | 155,446 |
| 10/1/2016 | 42.98% | 198,563 | 155,582 |
| Current | 38.94% | 192,772 | 153,832 |
Look at this table from 9/1. Down 14% in a stretch where the benchmark is down a bit more than 1%. I have had similar drops (look at 7/1/15 to 9/1/15), but for some reason that doesn't make me feel better.
| 11/15/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| LCI | $34.01 | $21.60 | $0.00 | -36.5% | 5.3% |
| SAVE | $34.48 | $48.05 | $0.00 | 39.4% | 5.3% |
| PPC | $18.98 | $21.64 | $2.75 | 28.5% | 5.3% |
| VEC | $23.60 | $16.54 | $0.00 | -29.9% | 5.3% |
| VNCE | $3.99 | $5.25 | $0.00 | 31.6% | 5.3% |
| Totals | 6.6% | 5.3% | |||
| 2/1/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VEC | $19.64 | $16.54 | $0.00 | -15.8% | 12.0% |
| QCOM | $45.18 | $68.40 | $1.54 | 54.8% | 12.0% |
| PERI | $2.45 | $1.06 | $0.00 | -56.7% | 12.0% |
| DEPO | $15.34 | $22.45 | $0.00 | 46.3% | 12.0% |
| TDC | $24.02 | $26.95 | $0.00 | 12.2% | 12.0% |
| Totals | 8.2% | 12.0% | |||
| 5/6/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BRCD | $7.97 | $8.69 | $0.11 | 10.4% | 5.0% |
| CBI | $37.82 | $31.92 | $0.00 | -15.6% | 5.0% |
| HSII | $18.51 | $17.55 | $0.13 | -4.5% | 5.0% |
| RHI | $38.51 | $36.70 | $0.44 | -3.6% | 5.0% |
| UTHR | $107.99 | $118.14 | $0.00 | 9.4% | 5.0% |
| Totals | -0.8% | 5.0% | |||
| 8/15/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CSCO | $31.20 | $30.59 | $0.00 | -2.0% | -2.5% |
| GNC | $19.79 | $13.48 | $0.19 | -30.9% | -2.5% |
| VLO | $54.73 | $58.60 | $0.00 | 7.1% | -2.5% |
| MSGN | $16.68 | $19.40 | $0.00 | 16.3% | -2.5% |
| GILD | $79.33 | $73.88 | $0.47 | -6.3% | -2.5% |
| Totals | -3.2% | -2.5% |
You can see my August tranche, which looked so good a week ago, is now trailing. My November tranche just has two weeks to go.
MFI Formula
This side is better. CPLA had a great week. I am almost back to even with the benchmark... woo-hoo!
| Date | Differential | Value | R3K Value |
| 10/1/2014 | 0.00% | 100,000 | 100,000 |
| 11/1/2014 | 1.63% | 102,288 | 100,658 |
| 12/1/2014 | 0.30% | 101,375 | 101,075 |
| 1/1/2015 | -0.33% | 100,664 | 100,995 |
| 2/1/2015 | 1.67% | 101,281 | 99,611 |
| 3/1/2015 | 3.62% | 106,073 | 102,454 |
| 4/1/2015 | 5.09% | 106,781 | 101,695 |
| 5/1/2015 | 5.78% | 107,859 | 102,077 |
| 6/1/2015 | 5.08% | 108,213 | 103,134 |
| 7/1/2015 | 4.82% | 106,423 | 101,604 |
| 8/1/2015 | 3.71% | 107,112 | 103,404 |
| 9/1/2015 | 4.38% | 101,523 | 97,139 |
| 10/1/2015 | 6.39% | 100,703 | 94,312 |
| 11/1/2015 | 2.93% | 104,835 | 101,907 |
| 12/1/2015 | -3.48% | 99,443 | 102,926 |
| 1/1/2016 | -3.36% | 96,830 | 100,012 |
| 2/1/2016 | -0.72% | 93,797 | 94,367 |
| 3/1/2016 | 4.07% | 98,588 | 94,367 |
| 4/1/2016 | 0.34% | 102,371 | 101,548 |
| 5/1/2016 | -1.91% | 99,774 | 101,200 |
| 6/1/2016 | -0.42% | 103,145 | 103,568 |
| 7/1/2016 | -0.19% | 103,022 | 103,216 |
| 8/1/2016 | 2.56% | 109,419 | 106,857 |
| 9/1/2016 | -0.34% | 106,704 | 107,048 |
| 10/1/2016 | -0.85% | 106,377 | 107,230 |
| Current | -0.30% | 104,660 | 104,962 |
| 12/31/15 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BBY | $30.31 | $38.78 | $1.29 | 32.2% | 5.2% |
| GME | $28.34 | $23.90 | $1.11 | -11.8% | 5.2% |
| ilg | $15.89 | $16.33 | $0.36 | 5.0% | 5.2% |
| PPC | $22.22 | $21.64 | $2.75 | 9.8% | 5.2% |
| VIAB | $40.93 | $37.60 | $1.00 | -5.7% | 5.2% |
| Totals | 5.9% | 5.2% | |||
| 4/1/16 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CALM | $51.27 | $38.16 | $0.44 | -24.7% | 4.9% |
| HPQ | $12.10 | $14.09 | $0.25 | 18.5% | 4.9% |
| TIME | $15.24 | $13.05 | $0.38 | -11.9% | 4.9% |
| ilg | $13.85 | $16.33 | $0.24 | 19.6% | 4.9% |
| TSRA | $30.79 | $37.10 | $0.40 | 21.8% | 4.9% |
| Totals | 4.7% | 4.9% | |||
| 7/1/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| ilg | $16.76 | $16.33 | $0.12 | -1.8% | 0.8% |
| VIAB | $44.00 | $37.60 | $0.20 | -14.1% | 0.8% |
| CPLA | $53.22 | $70.51 | $0.39 | 33.2% | 0.8% |
| HRB | $23.62 | $22.73 | $0.22 | -2.8% | 0.8% |
| PBI | $17.69 | $18.09 | $0.19 | 3.3% | 0.8% |
| Totals | 3.6% | 0.8% | |||
| 10/3/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CPLA | $58.15 | $70.51 | $0.00 | 21.3% | -1.9% |
| LDOS | $43.01 | $41.40 | $0.00 | -3.7% | -1.9% |
| GME | $27.70 | $23.90 | $0.00 | -13.7% | -1.9% |
| PBI | $18.15 | $18.09 | $0.00 | -0.3% | -1.9% |
| CSCO | $31.72 | $30.59 | $0.26 | -2.7% | -1.9% |
| Totals | 0.1% | -1.9% | |||
| Category/Tranche | October | January | April | July | Total |
| Initial Investment | 249,820 | 249,939 | 250,180 | 249,728 | 999,667 |
| Current Tranche | 0.1% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 3.6% |
| Previous Tranche | 5.5% | 11.0% | -0.2% | -12.5% | 1.0% |
| Tranche -2 | 0.5% | - | - | - | 0.1% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 6.1% | 17.6% | 4.4% | -9.4% | 4.7% |
| Current Balance | 265,161 | 293,887 | 261,195 | 226,353 | 1,046,595 |
| R3K Current Tranche | -1.9% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 0.8% | 2.2% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 10.8% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 0.5% | 5.0% |
| R3K Balance | 276,746 | 262,247 | 259,563 | 251,062 | 1,049,619 |
| Annualized IRR | 2.9% | 9.2% | 2.8% | -7.1% | 2.7% |
Dividends/Warrants.
It was a very tough week here.
| Div and Warrants | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | Pct Gain Last Week | June 1 2016 |
| BAC-WTA | $4.90 | $4.92 | $0.00 | 0.4% | 2.0% | -20.6% |
| AOD | $7.64 | $7.37 | $1.62 | 17.7% | 17.7% | 17.1% |
| JQC | $7.83 | $8.45 | $0.55 | 15.0% | 16.0% | 8.4% |
| CSQ | $9.08 | $10.02 | $2.10 | 33.4% | 34.3% | 30.5% |
| DSL | $18.42 | $18.67 | $0.74 | 5.4% | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| TGONF | $10.24 | $11.20 | $1.69 | 25.9% | 26.4% | 12.5% |
| HIG-WT | $21.24 | $36.90 | $0.00 | 73.8% | 73.8% | 75.7% |
| O | $23.95 | $58.53 | $19.03 | 223.8% | 237.9% | 249.0% |
| OIBAX | $5.06 | $5.85 | $2.27 | 60.4% | 61.0% | 58.1% |
| SJT | $8.75 | $6.35 | $0.28 | -24.3% | -17.0% | -14.4% |
| GLDI | $10.67 | $9.96 | $0.62 | -0.9% | -1.4% | 0.0% |
| Totals | 14.8% | 16.5% | 9.0% |
Bonds in general struggled as likelihood of rate increase went up. So O (a bond proxy) and DSL dropped. SJT went down quite a bit, probably on rumors I was thinking about selling.
Other Stocks
I continue to wait for a catalyst of EMG. WLDN had a tough week as did SBRA and PSXP as bond proxies. Actually, the real disaster was SPCB which had atrocious earnings and sold off 20% (that hurt). Boom!
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