Saturday, May 02, 2015

Schnell Weekend Update

Weekend Update

At the airport on a rainy Saturday in Zurich.  Will do a quick weekend update.  I was baically flat for the week, although as I noted yesterday, I generally had some favorable earning reports. But when the broader market is down one percent, staying flat seems ok.

MFI Select

My May 6th tranche will be sold this week and the great news is that it is likely to be a winner.  That always feels good.

5/6/2014 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
AVG $19.57 $23.91 $0.00 22.2% 13.5%
CA $29.54 $31.91 $1.00 11.4% 13.5%
CSCO $22.79 $28.92 $0.57 29.4% 13.5%
NSR $25.82 $29.87 $0.00 15.7% 13.5%
RCII $28.78 $29.64 $0.94 6.3% 13.5%
Totals 17.0% 13.5%
8/15/2014 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CSCO $24.40 $28.92 $0.59 20.9% 8.6%
AGX $36.71 $32.31 $0.70 -10.1% 8.6%
ITRN $21.32 $22.81 $0.71 10.3% 8.6%
BRCD $9.34 $11.38 $0.11 23.0% 8.6%
CBI $58.25 $47.69 $0.14 -17.9% 8.6%
Totals 5.3% 8.6%
11/15/2014 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
FLR $64.80 $59.24 $0.42 -7.9% 4.2%
IPCM $38.45 $48.86 $0.00 27.1% 4.2%
VIAB $72.29 $69.34 $0.66 -3.2% 4.2%
NHTC $12.19 $22.62 $0.03 85.8% 4.2%
AWRE $4.40 $4.24 $0.00 -3.6% 4.2%
Totals 19.6% 4.2%
2/1/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
VEC $28.00 $25.66 $0.00 -8.4% 5.7%
QCOM $62.73 $68.10 $0.42 9.2% 5.7%
VIAB $63.91 $69.34 $0.33 9.0% 5.7%
UIS $22.03 $21.81 $0.00 -1.0% 5.7%
NHTC $12.44 $22.62 $0.02 82.0% 5.7%
Totals 18.2% 5.7%

Category/Tranche August November February May Total
Initial Investment      25,000       25,000     25,000      25,000    100,000
Current Tranche 5.3% 19.6% 18.2% 17.0% 14.9%
Previous Tranche 41.4% 14.2% 8.5% 33.0% 21.8%
Tranche -2 14.1% 43.7% 78.3%             -   34.0%
MFI Overall Gain 69.8% 96.4% 128.5% 55.6% 87.6%
Current Balance      42,449       49,091     57,114      38,904    187,558
R3K Current Tranche 8.6% 4.2% 5.7% 13.5% 8.0%
R3K Overall Gain 58.5% 63.1% 44.5% 34.9% 50.3%
R3K Balance      39,623       40,767     36,137      33,723    150,251
Annualized IRR 21.6% 31.6% 44.5% 24.9% 28.0%
Date Differential MFI Value R3K Value
12/1/2012 -2.20%       99,765         101,965
1/1/2013 -1.78%      102,798         104,575
2/1/2013 -2.26%      102,594         104,856
3/1/2013 -2.23%      102,881         105,114
4/1/2013 -0.43%      106,804         107,234
5/1/2013 2.00%      110,423         108,423
6/1/2013 4.75%      115,831         111,085
7/1/2013 4.29%      114,888         110,597
8/1/2013 6.91%      124,799         117,889
9/1/2013 10.46%      124,536         114,079
10/1/2013 19.67%      138,655         118,990
11/1/2013 19.75%      143,514         123,764
12/1/2013 23.70%      150,105         126,405
1/1/2014 26.63%      157,138         130,503
2/1/2014 24.70%      150,619         125,918
3/1/2014 25.66%      158,116         132,458
4/1/2014 30.38%      162,991         132,616
5/1/2014 29.65%      162,428         132,779
6/1/2014 31.44%      167,001         135,559
7/1/2014 39.23%      177,971         138,740
8/1/2014 31.13%      167,054         135,922
9/1/2014 35.90%      177,792         141,892
10/1/2014 29.38%      168,321         138,944
11/1/2014 26.14%      168,810         142,666
12/1/2014 30.22%      176,420         146,198
1/1/2015 28.17%      174,306         146,140
2/1/2015 20.63%      162,833         142,201
3/1/2015 25.15%      175,476         150,324
4/1/2015 29.95%      178,565         148,612
5/1/2015 37.31%      186,655         149,348

I think we can all agree the 37 point differential as we approach three years doing this is very impressive.  My annualized IRR is about 28% versus 18% for R3K.  Still thinking everyday about my five new stocks.  I expect it will be a game day decision.  I am sorry, but have been too busy for a full write up.

MFI Formula

Still early days for these tranches, we will be fully invested July 1st.  It has gotten off to a great start.

10/1/2014 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
BAH $23.52 $27.95 $0.24 19.8% 8.6%
BKE $45.55 $45.63 $3.45 7.8% 8.6%
CA $27.87 $31.85 $0.50 16.1% 8.6%
GME $41.70 $39.17 $0.69 -4.4% 8.6%
NUS $44.56 $58.91 $0.70 33.8% 8.6%
Totals 14.6% 8.6%
12/31/14 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CA $30.83 $31.85 $0.25 4.1% 2.1%
CSCO $28.36 $29.13 $0.40 4.1% 2.1%
RGR $34.81 $54.86 $0.17 58.1% 2.1%
GME $34.21 $39.17 $0.36 15.6% 2.1%
IQNT $19.87 $19.25 $0.15 -2.4% 2.1%
Totals 15.9% 2.1%
3/31/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
HRB $31.99 $31.55 $0.00 -1.4% 0.8%
GME $37.69 $39.17 $0.00 3.9% 0.8%
KING $15.85 $15.90 $0.00 0.3% 0.8%
NSU $3.43 $4.00 $0.00 16.6% 0.8%
PPC $22.65 $25.44 $0.00 12.3% 0.8%
Totals 6.4% 0.8%

Wow, all three portfolios have pretty substantial leads.

Date Differential Value R3K Value
10/1/2014 0.00%      100,000         100,000
11/1/2014 1.63%      102,288         100,658
12/1/2014 0.30%      101,375         101,075
1/1/2015 -0.33%      100,664         100,995
2/1/2015 1.67%      101,281           99,611
3/1/2015 3.62%      106,073         102,454
4/1/2015 5.09%      106,781         101,695
5/1/2015 5.78%      107,859         102,077
Current 6.35%      109,207         102,854
Overall a 6 point spread, but remember that 1/4 of the money is still tied with R3K as it hasn't been invested yet.

Other Stuff

Otherwise, I have not been trading very much.  I did buy some GNW for a trade and made about 4.5% in a week.  My dividend stocks continue to pay dividends.  I am building that income stream so I can retire comfortably.

That is probably all for now, need to head towards gate.  Looking forward to being home.

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