Another week has slid by. Not my best week as it seemed that I was hit by some bad news and lukewarm earnings. I guess it can't all be rainbows and unicorns. For the week, I was down about 1%; while the Russell 3000 was slightly up.
That means for the year I am now up 8.5% versus 3.6% for R3K. Stocks that really took a dive included NUS off 12%, GNW off 8%, CBI down 4%. NHTC was the big winner, up 18%.
MFI Select
As I noted in previous post, I did retire my May 6th 2014 tranche and started a new one on Wednesday. PSDV announced on Friday and it was not exactly great. The stock sold off significantly. May have been a mistake by me. I knew they would have lumpy results, but I thought they would keep expenses in hand, but they spiked up. And revenues were close to non-existent.
| Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain | |
| $24.40 | $29.23 | $0.59 | 22.2% | 9.5% | |
| AGX | $36.71 | $32.57 | $0.70 | -9.4% | 9.5% |
| ITRN | $21.32 | $23.35 | $0.71 | 12.9% | 9.5% |
| $9.34 | $12.01 | $0.11 | 29.8% | 9.5% | |
| $58.25 | $48.01 | $0.14 | -17.3% | 9.5% | |
| Totals | 7.6% | 9.5% | |||
| Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain | |
| $64.80 | $59.66 | $0.42 | -7.3% | 5.0% | |
| IPCM | $38.45 | $49.62 | $0.00 | 29.1% | 5.0% |
| VIAB | $72.29 | $66.44 | $0.66 | -7.2% | 5.0% |
| NHTC | $12.19 | $27.02 | $0.03 | 121.9% | 5.0% |
| $4.40 | $3.85 | $0.00 | -12.5% | 5.0% | |
| Totals | 24.8% | 5.0% | |||
| Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain | |
| VEC | $28.00 | $25.57 | $0.00 | -8.7% | 6.5% |
| $62.73 | $69.41 | $0.42 | 11.3% | 6.5% | |
| VIAB | $63.91 | $66.44 | $0.33 | 4.5% | 6.5% |
| $22.03 | $21.39 | $0.00 | -2.9% | 6.5% | |
| NHTC | $12.44 | $27.02 | $0.02 | 117.4% | 6.5% |
| Totals | 24.3% | 6.5% | |||
| Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain | |
| $50.38 | $48.01 | $0.00 | -4.7% | 1.3% | |
| PSDV | $4.12 | $3.93 | $0.00 | -4.7% | 1.3% |
| TSRA | $38.94 | $38.65 | $0.00 | -0.7% | 1.3% |
| KORS | $62.24 | $62.51 | $0.00 | 0.4% | 1.3% |
| DEPO | $23.50 | $23.79 | $0.00 | 1.2% | 1.3% |
| Totals | -1.7% | 1.3% |
You can also see that CBI sold off almost 5% since I bought on Wednesday. It seems their accounting practices are being questioned. I am not as concerned about that, I believe most of that type of stuff s priced in. It would be nice to see the August tranche rally. November and February are beyond great, but if NHTC comes under scrutiny for China sales practices, they could drop.
| Category/Tranche | August | November | February | May | Total |
| Initial Investment | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 100,000 |
| Current Tranche | 7.6% | 24.8% | 24.3% | -1.7% | 14.0% |
| Previous Tranche | 41.4% | 14.2% | 8.5% | 18.3% | 19.2% |
| Tranche -2 | 14.1% | 43.7% | 78.3% | 33.0% | 42.3% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 73.6% | 104.9% | 140.3% | 54.6% | 93.4% |
| Current Balance | 43,401 | 51,213 | 60,081 | 38,661 | 193,355 |
| R3K Current Tranche | 9.5% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 12.9% | 8.5% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 59.7% | 64.4% | 45.7% | 34.2% | 51.0% |
| R3K Balance | 39,935 | 41,090 | 36,425 | 33,543 | 150,994 |
| Annualized IRR | 22.4% | 33.5% | 47.2% | 24.2% | 27.3% |
| Date | Differential | MFI Value | R3K Value |
| -2.20% | 99,765 | 101,965 | |
| -1.78% | 102,798 | 104,575 | |
| -2.26% | 102,594 | 104,856 | |
| -2.23% | 102,881 | 105,114 | |
| -0.43% | 106,804 | 107,234 | |
| 2.00% | 110,423 | 108,423 | |
| 4.75% | 115,831 | 111,085 | |
| 4.29% | 114,888 | 110,597 | |
| 6.91% | 124,799 | 117,889 | |
| 10.46% | 124,536 | 114,079 | |
| 19.67% | 138,655 | 118,990 | |
| 19.75% | 143,514 | 123,764 | |
| 23.70% | 150,105 | 126,405 | |
| 26.63% | 157,138 | 130,503 | |
| 24.70% | 150,619 | 125,918 | |
| 3/1/2014 | 25.66% | 158,116 | 132,458 |
| 4/1/2014 | 30.38% | 162,991 | 132,616 |
| 5/1/2014 | 29.65% | 162,428 | 132,779 |
| 6/1/2014 | 31.44% | 167,001 | 135,559 |
| 7/1/2014 | 39.23% | 177,971 | 138,740 |
| 31.13% | 167,054 | 135,922 | |
| 35.90% | 177,792 | 141,892 | |
| 29.38% | 168,321 | 138,944 | |
| 26.14% | 168,810 | 142,666 | |
| 30.22% | 176,420 | 146,198 | |
| 28.17% | 174,306 | 146,140 | |
| 20.63% | 162,833 | 142,201 | |
| 25.15% | 175,476 | 150,324 | |
| 29.95% | 178,565 | 148,612 | |
| 37.31% | 186,655 | 149,348 | |
| Current | 42.36% | 193,355 | 150,994 |
This table really tells the story on how well the MFI Reboot has done since August 2012. The hypothetical $100,000 invested over four tranches is close to a double (193,355), while being in Russell 3000 would just have you over $151,000.
MFI Formula
These tranches were hurt by the poor NUS results this week. But still, all-in-all, the formula is working well:
| 10/1/2014 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BAH | $23.52 | $27.90 | $0.24 | 19.6% | 9.0% |
| $45.55 | $45.33 | $3.45 | 7.1% | 9.0% | |
| CA | $27.87 | $31.60 | $0.50 | 15.2% | 9.0% |
| $41.70 | $40.19 | $0.69 | -2.0% | 9.0% | |
| $44.56 | $51.49 | $0.70 | 17.1% | 9.0% | |
| Totals | 11.4% | 9.0% | |||
| 12/31/14 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CA | $30.83 | $31.60 | $0.25 | 3.3% | 2.5% |
| $28.36 | $29.23 | $0.40 | 4.5% | 2.5% | |
| $34.81 | $55.77 | $0.17 | 60.7% | 2.5% | |
| $34.21 | $40.19 | $0.36 | 18.5% | 2.5% | |
| IQNT | $19.87 | $18.54 | $0.15 | -5.9% | 2.5% |
| Totals | 16.2% | 2.5% | |||
| Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain | |
| $31.99 | $31.02 | $0.00 | -3.0% | 1.2% | |
| $37.69 | $40.19 | $0.00 | 6.6% | 1.2% | |
| KING | $15.85 | $15.73 | $0.00 | -0.8% | 1.2% |
| NSU | $3.43 | $4.03 | $0.00 | 17.5% | 1.2% |
| PPC | $22.65 | $24.78 | $0.00 | 9.4% | 1.2% |
| Totals | 5.9% | 1.2% |
All three tranches are winning.
| Date | Differential | Value | R3K Value |
| 0.00% | 100,000 | 100,000 | |
| 1.63% | 102,288 | 100,658 | |
| 0.30% | 101,375 | 101,075 | |
| -0.33% | 100,664 | 100,995 | |
| 1.67% | 101,281 | 99,611 | |
| 3.62% | 106,073 | 102,454 | |
| 5.09% | 106,781 | 101,695 | |
| 5.78% | 107,859 | 102,077 | |
| Current | 5.22% | 108,384 | 103,162 |
I have given up a bit of lead since May 1st. We will see what CSCO earnings are like. KING is reporting very soon as well.
Transactions
I did buy CSIQ on Thursday morning post an "earnings disappointment". It has already been a savvy buy, up 8.6% in two days. Recall I owned this stock at the start of the year and made a very snappy 16%. I would have made much, much more, but was stopped out by some covered calls I had sold. I may sell covered calls again - but am in no rush. I think CSIQ is quite cheap for a company that is growing. Recall when I ran my top 200 list on May 1st, they were #65. And while I am too lazy right now to rerun, I believe they would move up a couple of spaces with their 1st quarter earnings.
So they are a buy and hold for me. My only other transactions (exclusive of the new tranche and selling the old tranche) were selling my BXE and buying TBT. Treasury rates will rise. Might as well benefit via TBT.
Have a great weekend.
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