Monday, October 13, 2014

The Sell Off Continues

Decision Moose, one of my bear market indicators shifted out of equities this weekend and into treasuries. While their track record has not exactly been stellar post 2009, I still believe one should ignore at their own risk.

I am becoming more and more worried about Ebola. The world economy is already pretty darned fragile. And if people start going into isolation mode due to Ebola or if some countries outside of Africa start having outbreaks, I think we could go into full recession.

I did a few transactions today in response to the moose and Ebola worries. I sold TIME, DO and VEC.  I did buy some TZA. My goal is just to hunker down and come out the other side. If I am wrong and this is just a standard "buy the dips drop", then I am okay missing some upside.

In a depressing note, I just noticed that my MFI (traditional, not the new one I started) for the year is now in the red. Down 0.8% on the year. The recent drops in SNDK, SYNA, ATVI and KLAC have just been too much.

Since the start of September, ATVI is down 22%, SNDK is off 15%, KLAC is down 14% and SYNA is down 18%. My construction stocks are actually off more. CBI is down 24% and AGX is down 25%. Tough sledding in past 45 days.


John Carney said...

I am not worried about the moose or Ebola.

The big one out there is to get back to a normal rate of interest.

Rates on the 10 year bond needs to get back to over 4% over the next three or four years.

WoW! We never been in a period like this before when you start with zero rates.

msmith1862 said...

Hey Marshall- Do you find any of the stocks selling off particularly attractive? I have added on to my CBI.

Marsh_Gerda said...

I find a lot of them attractive. But I am going to stay defensive for the near term.