Weekend Update January 12th 2013

Well, we completed our 2nd week of trading in 2013.  The longer we go without the market cracking, the more I become convinced it ain't going to happen.  The issue is that bonds look like such a bad investment, that people are almost pushed into equities. And by a lot of measures, equities do not look THAT expensive, it is more the fear of recession that has me worried.

I did see a sill write-up where a blogger tracked for over a decade how commentators on CNBC did in predicting the direction of the market.  Guess what?  You would do just as well flipping a coin!  It makes sense.  If everyone on CNBC said the market was going to plummet, then the market would have already plummeted as that was the consensus view.  That is why it is a market.  For every buyer, a seller.

After the first 11 days of January, the Russell 3000 is up 3.27%. Pretty decent start, eh?  I am hanging in there.  My dividend portfolio is up 3.5% and my MFI is up 1.4% (the MFI index is doing ok, up 3.7%). My entire portfolio, including "discretionary" stocks is up 3.4%.

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I did add to my position in CIM on Friday.  It has started great for me and the more I looked at it the more I thought a larger position would be alright.  They are in the process of restating their financials (the primary reason they were "cheap").  They have not completed everything, but did say their book value was $3.31.  So at $2.80, they are still quite a bit under book and paying a 12.9% dividend.  Again, with the Leon Cooperman blessing, I decided to increase my holding by 50%.

I will be getting some more investable funds in early March (I also am still sitting on a fair amount of cash), so I was toying with ways to put the cash to work.  One obvious option is to simply increase my current positions.  I will undoubtedly do that.  But I also decided to take a look at closed end funds again. I have had great success in that space with BHK, JQC, KMF and CSQ already (I list their results further down).  One trick I used in picking them out was buying them at a discount to their NAV by looking at this website (CEFConnect ).  Two I have added to my watch list are BDJ and JRI. (note, you can also track their NAV by using ticker symbols XBDJX and XJRIX).  They are both trading near their average discount.  I have a flag that lets me know if they drop to two additional points below the average discount.  That would be my buy signal.

MFI Index So Far

Here is how the MFI Index has performed (by stock) so far in 2013 and for the past week:

Stock	Start	Last Week	Current	YTD Change	Weekly Change
APOL	20.92	22.03	19.21	-8.2%	-12.8%
AGX	18.00	19.00	18.46	2.6%	-2.8%
BAH	13.92	14.86	14.47	4.0%	-2.6%
CA	21.98	23.05	23.34	6.2%	1.3%
CPLA	28.23	29.83	28.19	-0.1%	-5.5%
CF	203.16	210.88	218.17	7.4%	3.5%
CSCO	19.65	20.48	20.48	4.2%	0.0%
DELL	10.14	10.97	10.88	7.3%	-0.8%
DLX	32.24	33.22	33.20	3.0%	-0.1%
DMRC	20.70	21.59	22.18	7.1%	2.7%
DLB	29.33	30.44	30.70	4.7%	0.9%
GME	25.09	24.80	23.25	-7.3%	-6.3%
GNI	67.20	71.00	72.62	8.1%	2.3%
GTAT	3.03	3.45	3.33	9.9%	-3.5%
HLF	32.94	37.00	40.02	21.5%	8.2%
HFC	46.55	44.35	44.67	-4.0%	0.7%
IDCC	41.09	44.12	44.11	7.3%	0.0%
INTX	9.48	10.27	10.49	10.7%	2.1%
ESI	17.31	19.29	14.49	-16.3%	-24.9%
JCOM	30.60	31.88	32.17	5.1%	0.9%
KLIC	11.99	12.40	12.34	2.9%	-0.5%
LPS	24.62	25.49	23.60	-4.1%	-7.4%
MANT	25.94	27.02	26.02	0.3%	-3.7%
MSFT	26.71	26.74	26.83	0.5%	0.3%
NATR	14.48	15.41	14.86	2.6%	-3.6%
NSU	4.28	4.26	4.46	4.2%	4.7%
NTI	25.44	24.62	24.57	-3.4%	-0.2%
NUS	37.05	41.17	42.08	13.6%	2.2%
PDLI	7.04	7.39	7.48	6.3%	1.2%
PETS	11.10	11.40	11.35	2.3%	-0.4%
PBI	10.64	11.37	11.91	11.9%	4.7%
POOSF	1.42	1.45	1.46	2.9%	0.2%
POZN	5.01	5.19	5.34	6.6%	2.9%
QCOR	26.72	26.11	25.93	-3.0%	-0.7%
RTN	57.56	59.01	57.99	0.7%	-1.7%
RPXC	9.04	10.04	9.77	8.1%	-2.7%
SAI	11.32	11.82	12.08	6.7%	2.2%
STX	30.42	31.45	33.29	9.4%	5.9%
SVLC	2.52	2.63	2.77	9.9%	5.3%
SAVE	17.73	18.10	18.27	3.0%	0.9%
STRA	56.17	60.86	53.04	-5.6%	-12.8%
TNAV	7.99	7.96	7.92	-0.9%	-0.5%
TZOO	18.99	19.07	19.36	1.9%	1.5%
UIS	17.30	17.93	17.30	0.0%	-3.5%
USMO	11.68	11.65	11.69	0.1%	0.3%
USNA	32.93	35.71	35.67	8.3%	-0.1%
EGY	8.65	8.99	9.41	8.8%	4.7%
VCI	25.78	26.82	27.66	7.3%	3.1%
VG	2.37	2.38	2.42	2.1%	1.7%
WCRX	12.04	12.86	13.06	8.5%	1.6%
Total	11,656	12,168	12,087	3.7%	-0.7%
Total x Education				4.7%

For profit education is once again dragging down the results.

My Dividend Portfolio So Far

Stock	Start	Last Week	Current	QTD Change	Weekly Change
AAPL	532.17	527.00	520.30	-2.2%	-1.3%
BHK	14.90	15.38	15.23	2.2%	-1.0%
CIM	2.61	2.73	2.80	7.3%	2.6%
CSCO	19.65	20.48	20.48	4.2%	0.0%
CSQ	9.81	10.15	10.29	4.9%	1.4%
FCX	34.20	35.80	35.31	3.3%	-1.4%
FSC	10.42	10.95	10.86	4.2%	-0.8%
HFC	46.55	44.35	44.67	-4.0%	0.7%
INTC	20.62	21.16	22.00	6.7%	4.0%
JPM	43.97	45.66	46.44	5.6%	1.7%
JQC	9.65	9.94	10.05	4.1%	1.1%
KMF	28.79	29.17	31.16	8.2%	6.8%
MPC	63.00	62.55	61.99	-1.6%	-0.9%
O	40.21	41.33	42.90	6.7%	3.8%
OIBAX	6.58	6.58	6.61	0.5%	0.5%
PGR	21.10	22.27	22.34	5.9%	0.3%
PRE	80.49	82.89	83.64	3.9%	0.9%
PVD	104.00	108.26	111.02	6.7%	2.5%
SAI	11.32	11.94	12.08	6.7%	1.2%
SLCA	16.73	17.15	17.96	7.4%	4.7%
STO	25.04	25.46	25.55	2.0%	0.4%
VIVHY	22.81	21.99	22.20	-2.7%	1.0%
Totals				3.5%	1.2%
IWV	84.68	87.03	87.45	3.3%	0.5%

Hard to complain.

MFI Tranches

Here I can complain, as they just keep under-performing, even without education stocks.

August 15 Tranche
Stock	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
DLB	$34.43	$30.70	$4.00	0.8%	6.7%
KFY	$13.98	$15.60	$0.00	11.6%	6.7%
MSFT	$30.19	$26.83	$0.23	-10.4%	6.7%
NSU	$3.62	$4.46	$0.05	24.8%	6.7%
UIS	$19.96	$17.30	$0.00	-13.3%	6.7%
Totals				2.7%	6.7%
November 15 Tranche
Stock	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
AAPL	$537.62	$520.30	$0.00	-3.2%	10.0%
ABC	$40.21	$43.84	$0.00	9.0%	10.0%
LPS	$23.89	$23.60	$0.10	-0.8%	10.0%
VIAB	$49.12	$57.78	$0.28	18.2%	10.0%
WU	$12.77	$13.80	$0.13	9.0%	10.0%
Totals				6.5%	10.0%

Finally, here is table of my dividend portfolio overall, not just for 2013:

Stock	Shares	Avg Cost	Current Price	Dividends Received	Pct Change	R3K Change	Diff
AAPL	150	527.94	520.30	-	-1.4%	3.8%	-5.3%
BHK	2,259	12.78	15.23	2,861	29.1%	9.2%	19.9%
CIM	15,000	2.67	2.80	-	4.8%	0.6%	4.2%
CSCO	4,292	17.22	20.48	2,014	21.7%	10.6%	11.0%
CSQ	5,482	8.28	10.29	5,620	36.7%	26.1%	10.7%
FCX	1,110	32.19	35.00	344	9.7%	4.4%	5.3%
FSC	2,829	9.81	10.76	2,330	18.0%	8.4%	9.7%
HFC	1,217	35.02	44.67	2,586	33.6%	6.9%	26.7%
INTC	1,974	20.99	22.00	1,998	9.6%	19.7%	-10.1%
JPM	1,684	35.29	46.14	1,494	33.3%	10.5%	22.7%
JQC	4,221	9.12	9.98	4,945	22.3%	10.0%	12.3%
KMF	1,872	22.10	31.16	4,454	51.8%	22.3%	29.5%
MPC	582	43.98	61.99	546	43.1%	8.2%	34.9%
O	558	19.41	42.90	7,463	189.9%	73.2%	116.6%
OIBAX	3,948	4.94	6.61	6,821	68.7%	73.3%	-4.5%
PGR	2,092	20.54	22.34	2,000	13.4%	8.9%	4.6%
PRE	536	67.43	83.64	1,286	27.6%	9.0%	18.6%
PVD	427	65.11	111.02	3,788	84.1%	22.6%	61.6%
SAI	4,727	12.83	11.96	1,938	-3.6%	4.5%	-8.0%
SLCA	2,062	14.34	17.96	1,000	28.7%	2.3%	26.3%
STO	1,040	23.82	25.55	1,121	11.8%	25.0%	-13.2%
VIVHY	2,296	16.70	22.20	3,749	42.7%	7.6%	35.1%
Total Open				58,358	25.6%	12.6%	13.0%
Closed					10.8%	9.3%	1.5%
Combined					15.0%	10.2%	4.8%
IRR Since 12/31/10					16.5%
2013 Gain					3.5%