Sunday, January 20, 2013

Driving Forward Using the Rear View Mirror 1

Top 200 September 3 2011 Analysis

As I mentioned the other day, I thought it might be useful to look back at my large database of stock data and see if we can draw any conclusions on winners and losers.  I have pulled my top 200 list from September 2011 and looked to see where they are today.  While I have tried to be accurate, it is possible there have been stock splits, special dividends etc that I am not capturing properly. So any insights readers can add are welcomed.  Also, some of the stocks have been sold (like LMLP, MEDW and PRX). I have just put these in at the sale price.  I have made no attempt to determine post transaction what has happened.

The List

Here is my list. First cut is just in the order I ranked them 18 months ago.

Ticker Rank  Stock Price  Yahoo Yield Current Change Country
STV 1               4.74 0.0%        1.81 -62% China
ASTX 2               2.04 0.0%        3.20 57% USA
LMLP 3               2.85 0.0%        3.44 21% Canada
PERI 4               5.84 21.4%      12.18 109% Israel
DEPO 5               5.88 0.0%        6.25 6% USA
TNAV 6               8.80 0.0%        7.97 -9% USA
PDLI 7               5.80 13.6%        7.08 22% USA
AGX 8               9.60 0.0%      18.98 98% USA
TSRA 9             13.27 0.0%      17.23 30% USA
XNY 10               2.27 0.0%        1.34 -41% China
VECO 11             33.00 0.0%      30.89 -6% USA
LACO 12               2.37 0.0%        3.08 30% USA
BPI 13             20.40 0.0%      10.12 -50% USA
NVMI 14               6.38 0.0%        8.83 38% Israel
ESI 15             67.27 0.0%      14.47 -78% USA
CRAY 16               5.34 0.0%      18.52 247% USA
MNTA 17             16.13 0.0%      12.43 -23% USA
GAME 18               5.40 0.0%        3.22 -40% China
CPLA 19             30.42 0.0%      27.91 -8% USA
APOL 20             44.55 0.0%      20.28 -54% USA
SNDK 21             34.94 0.0%      48.46 39% USA
PRX 22             28.50 0.0%      50.00 75% USA
AFAM 23             18.18 0.0%      19.76 9% USA
RIMG 24             12.93 2.3%        7.01 -46% USA
SAVE 25             11.74 0.0%      19.25 64% USA
DELL 26             14.24 0.0%      12.84 -10% USA
UIS 27             16.30 0.0%      17.50 7% USA
LTXC 28               5.53 0.0%        6.47 17% USA
FRX 29             33.10 0.0%      36.77 11% USA
DJCO 30             68.85 0.0%      97.31 41% USA
CNGL 31               1.74 0.0%        0.01 -99% China
KLIC 32               7.98 0.0%      12.58 58% USA
VPHM 33             18.61 0.0%      27.07 45% USA
ASYS 34             10.05 0.0%        3.94 -61% USA
USMO 35             14.73 13.3%      11.53 -22% USA
UEPS 36               6.15 0.0%        5.29 -14% South Africa
CHKE 37             12.99 7.5%      13.70 5% USA
LPS 38             16.35 2.3%      22.99 41% USA
HRB 39             13.41 4.0%      20.56 53% USA
CECO 40             15.36 0.0%        3.30 -79% USA
EGY 41               5.81 0.0%        9.14 57% USA
RIMM 42             30.12 0.0%      15.84 -47% Canada
PWER 43               6.88 0.0%        3.97 -42% USA
ACAD 44               1.30 0.0%        5.22 302% USA
AMAT 45             10.84 2.7%      12.65 17% USA
KLAC 46             34.82 3.1%      51.84 49% USA
AVEO 47             15.91 0.0%        7.81 -51% USA
STRA 48             90.11 4.4%      54.63 -39% USA
AMED 49             15.37 0.0%      11.36 -26% USA
USNA 50             25.22 0.0%      36.36 44% USA
KFY 51             14.85 0.0%      15.88 7% USA
LIWA 52               5.93 0.0%        4.41 -26% China
TER 53             11.49 0.0%      17.13 49% USA
MANT 54             34.09 0.0%      26.12 -23% USA
DLB 55             32.12 0.0%      30.42 -5% USA
LRCX 56             36.22 0.0%      40.12 11% USA
CYOU 57             36.13 0.0%      31.62 -12% China
AZN 58             45.08 5.8%      48.99 9% United Kingdom
MSFT 59             25.80 2.4%      27.25 6% USA
PRSC 60             10.21 0.0%      19.14 87% USA
PETS 61               9.70 5.0%      11.53 19% USA
CMTL 62             27.34 3.6%      26.62 -3% USA
GTIV 63               6.64 0.0%      10.47 58% USA
OSK 64             18.00 0.0%      33.74 87% USA
DLX 65             20.30 4.8%      33.37 64% USA
GNI 66           105.40 12.1%      73.00 -31% USA
DV 67             40.74 0.6%      24.07 -41% USA
NOC 68             51.80 15.5%      67.49 30% USA
CNTF 69               2.56 0.0%        1.37 -46% China
NOK 70               6.34 8.2%        4.43 -30% Finland
MDP 71             23.84 4.0%      33.99 43% USA
WSTG 72             10.93 7.1%      12.01 10% USA
ENTR 73               4.08 0.0%        5.56 36% USA
SPRD 74             18.45 0.3%      16.60 -10% China
MED 75             14.82 0.0%      27.60 86% USA
UNTD 76               5.29 7.5%        6.35 20% USA
RTN 77             41.27 3.8%      58.10 41% USA
NSR 78             23.89 0.0%      43.96 84% USA
MDCO 79             13.99 0.0%      30.23 116% USA
AIXG 80             20.38 3.9%      14.00 -31% Germany
HPQ 81             24.34 1.4%      17.11 -30% USA
CUB 82             39.96 0.7%      46.42 16% USA
GME 83             22.15 0.0%      23.28 5% USA
ADI 84             32.01 2.9%      43.06 35% USA
MKSI 85             22.10 1.3%      27.70 25% USA
MBND 86               3.07 0.0%        2.09 -32% USA
ARO 87             10.52 0.0%      13.81 31% USA
CSCO 88             15.41 0.8%      21.02 36% USA
LHCG 89             18.32 0.0%      21.03 15% USA
IPXL 90             18.81 0.0%      21.02 12% USA
EME 91             21.08 0.0%      35.43 68% USA
DGIT 92             20.20 0.0%      10.27 -49% USA
CEL 93             21.82 16.4%        8.16 -63% Israel
MRVL 94             12.89 0.0%        8.68 -33% Bermuda
NVLS 95             27.17 0.0%      40.40 49% USA
CPIX 96               5.98 0.0%        4.11 -31% USA
GURE 97               1.79 0.0%        1.18 -34% USA
LINC 98               8.93 8.1%        5.13 -43% USA
SAI 99             12.94 0.0%      11.97 -7% USA
CBST 100             32.90 0.0%      44.03 34% USA
CHOP 101               3.87 0.0%        2.27 -41% China
ASEI 102             63.07 2.3%      67.85 8% USA
EDS 103               4.15 0.0%        1.37 -67% Hong Kong
CREG 104               1.39 0.0%        1.09 -22% China
PWRD 105             20.28 0.0%      12.03 -41% China
CSGS 106             12.74 0.0%      19.05 50% USA
HITK 107             28.53 0.0%      37.37 31% USA
CBPO 108               7.63 0.0%      19.21 152% China
MIPS 109               5.19 0.0%        7.87 52% USA
OSIR 110               5.01 0.0%        8.97 79% USA
MCO 111             29.34 1.7%      53.60 83% USA
BRKS 112               8.53 0.0%        9.16 7% USA
WU 113             16.00 1.7%      13.41 -16% USA
CA 114             20.15 0.9%      24.57 22% USA
ICON 115             17.50 0.0%      23.25 33% USA
MYGN 116             18.62 0.0%      27.40 47% USA
GPS 117             15.60 2.7%      32.96 111% USA
MEDW 118             11.17 0.0%      22.00 97% USA
GD 119             60.94 2.8%      70.66 16% USA
INTC 120             19.64 3.7%      21.25 8% USA
SPU 121               2.26 0.0%        2.60 15% China
MPAA 122               9.75 0.0%        6.97 -29% USA
OVTI 123             17.35 0.0%      15.29 -12% USA
EXPR 124             17.47 0.0%      18.16 4% USA
WSTL 125               2.27 0.0%        1.90 -16% USA
LXK 126             30.55 0.0%      27.95 -9% USA
OMPI 127               9.63 0.0%      13.91 44% USA
DNB 128             63.66 2.2%      79.98 26% USA
QLGC 129             13.04 0.0%      11.05 -15% USA
COOL 130               2.38 0.0%        0.73 -69% USA
ATVI 131             11.33 1.4%      11.36 0% USA
PRGS 132             19.30 0.0%      23.54 22% USA
GEDU 133               5.00 0.0%             -   -100% China
GSIT 134               4.78 0.0%        6.69 40% USA
VCI 135             23.03 0.0%      28.00 22% USA
GCI 136             10.44 1.4%      19.84 90% USA
LLTC 137             27.46 3.4%      36.48 33% USA
LLY 138             36.44 5.3%      53.77 48% USA
DISH 139             24.30 0.0%      37.92 56% USA
LO 140           110.07 4.5%      39.51 -64% USA
PTNR 141             10.51 18.1%        5.99 -43% Israel
ALTR 142             34.75 0.7%      35.64 3% USA
TRW 143             39.57 0.0%      56.00 42% USA
MFW 144             20.79 0.0%      25.00 20% USA
NTCT 145             12.49 0.0%      25.25 102% USA
GILD 146             38.82 0.0%      78.28 102% USA
KONG 147               4.15 0.0%        6.16 48% China
GMAN 148             13.65 0.0%      11.89 -13% USA
ASMI 149             24.55 2.2%      38.32 56% Netherlands
LEA 150             44.11 0.8%      48.02 9% USA
CACI 151             49.92 0.0%      58.22 17% USA
BSQR 152               4.71 0.0%        3.30 -30% USA
HRS 153             38.23 3.3%      49.94 31% USA
TNH 154           182.00 6.2%    231.94 27% USA
VG 155               3.15 0.0%        2.49 -21% USA
NATH 156             18.80 0.0%      37.26 98% USA
BTM 157             21.69 7.4%      15.65 -28% Brazil
NTRI 158             11.76 5.5%        8.80 -25% USA
MHP 159             40.62 2.4%      54.34 34% USA
ERIC 160             10.96 3.1%      10.56 -4% Sweden
LMT 161             71.37 4.1%      93.97 32% USA
SBGI 162               6.90 4.9%      13.12 90% USA
NANO 163             14.49 0.0%      15.55 7% USA
CGA 164               3.95 0.0%        3.77 -5% China
SYNA 165             23.44 0.0%      32.97 41% USA
MGIC 166               4.21 0.0%        4.71 12% Israel
BID 167             34.85 0.5%      35.99 3% USA
WWE 168               9.04 12.9%        8.25 -9% USA
FCX 169             44.94 1.9%      33.64 -25% USA
AEIS 170               9.24 0.0%      14.57 58% USA
PRIM 171             10.26 0.9%      18.26 78% USA
BBY 172             24.10 2.4%      14.88 -38% USA
RBCN 173             11.99 0.0%        6.34 -47% USA
TXN 174             25.08 2.0%      33.52 34% USA
BLC 175               5.15 0.9%        7.92 54% USA
AFCE 176             12.26 0.0%      26.72 118% USA
CXDC 177               5.20 0.0%        4.35 -16% China
PKE 178             22.57 1.7%      26.11 16% USA
STO 179             23.37 4.6%      25.79 10% Norway
TNDM 180             10.53 0.0%        3.10 -71% USA
CVVT 181               2.16 0.0%        0.46 -79% China
BKE 182             38.60 8.4%      45.26 17% USA
MCRL 183               9.74 1.4%      10.21 5% USA
IOSP 184             25.05 0.0%      39.84 59% United Kingdom
INSP 185               9.11 0.0%      12.50 37% USA
RTEC 186               6.39 0.0%      13.88 117% USA
LNCR 187             20.36 3.8%      41.50 104% USA
ALV 188             53.38 3.0%      65.33 22% Sweden
STEC 189               9.05 0.0%        5.12 -43% USA
LLL 190             64.69 2.6%      78.81 22% USA
ITRN 191             13.00 7.5%      14.31 10% Israel
FICO 192             23.85 0.3%      44.49 87% USA
TW 193             56.99 0.5%      57.95 2% USA
CEPH 194             80.61 0.0%      81.50 1% USA
LUK 195             27.42 0.9%      24.10 -12% USA
GRMN 196             32.00 2.5%      39.52 24% Cayman Islands
UFPT 197             16.11 0.0%      19.40 20% USA
CHE 198             55.34 1.0%      72.69 31% USA
LSCC 199               5.15 0.0%        4.18 -19% USA
TRLG 200             28.69 0.0%      24.88 -13% USA

My initial reaction was that the top 200 didn't do very well. Only up on average by 16%. The Russell 3000 is up by 27% in that stretch.  Now let us look by market cap:

Ticker Rank  Stock Price  Market Cap Current Change Country
MSFT 59             25.80         219,842      27.25 6% USA
INTC 120             19.64         106,861      21.25 8% USA
CSCO 88             15.41           84,693      21.02 36% USA
STO 179             23.37           74,377      25.79 10% Norway
AZN 58             45.08           62,526      48.99 9% United Kingdom
HPQ 81             24.34           50,627      17.11 -30% USA
FCX 169             44.94           42,963      33.64 -25% USA
LLY 138             36.44           40,593      53.77 48% USA
ERIC 160             10.96           35,412      10.56 -4% Sweden
GILD 146             38.82           31,087      78.28 102% USA
TXN 174             25.08           29,594      33.52 34% USA
DELL 26             14.24           26,643      12.84 -10% USA
LMT 161             71.37           24,737      93.97 32% USA
NOK 70               6.34           23,540        4.43 -30% Finland
GD 119             60.94           22,634      70.66 16% USA
RIMM 42             30.12           15,799      15.84 -47% Canada
LO 140           110.07           15,626      39.51 -64% USA
NOC 68             51.80           14,877      67.49 30% USA
RTN 77             41.27           14,738      58.10 41% USA
AMAT 45             10.84           14,417      12.65 17% USA
ATVI 131             11.33           13,030      11.36 0% USA
MHP 159             40.62           12,560      54.34 34% USA
ALTR 142             34.75           11,464      35.64 3% USA
DISH 139             24.30           10,869      37.92 56% USA
WU 113             16.00           10,173      13.41 -16% USA
CA 114             20.15           10,095      24.57 22% USA
ADI 84             32.01             9,883      43.06 35% USA
BBY 172             24.10             9,573      14.88 -38% USA
FRX 29             33.10             9,479      36.77 11% USA
SNDK 21             34.94             8,521      48.46 39% USA
GPS 117             15.60             8,502      32.96 111% USA
MRVL 94             12.89             8,032        8.68 -33% Bermuda
CEPH 194             80.61             7,118      81.50 1% USA
LLL 190             64.69             6,935      78.81 22% USA
LUK 195             27.42             6,828      24.10 -12% USA
MCO 111             29.34             6,792      53.60 83% USA
LLTC 137             27.46             6,415      36.48 33% USA
APOL 20             44.55             6,252      20.28 -54% USA
GRMN 196             32.00             6,236      39.52 24% Cayman Islands
KLAC 46             34.82             5,950      51.84 49% USA
TRW 143             39.57             5,318      56.00 42% USA
ALV 188             53.38             5,018      65.33 22% Sweden
HRS 153             38.23             4,767      49.94 31% USA
LEA 150             44.11             4,738      48.02 9% USA
LRCX 56             36.22             4,531      40.12 11% USA
SAI 99             12.94             4,387      11.97 -7% USA
BTM 157             21.69             4,264      15.65 -28% Brazil
TW 193             56.99             4,211      57.95 2% USA
HRB 39             13.41             4,097      20.56 53% USA
DLB 55             32.12             3,609      30.42 -5% USA
TNH 154           182.00             3,367    231.94 27% USA
DNB 128             63.66             3,164      79.98 26% USA
GME 83             22.15             3,150      23.28 5% USA
DV 67             40.74             2,847      24.07 -41% USA
TER 53             11.49             2,648      17.13 49% USA
GCI 136             10.44             2,547      19.84 90% USA
LXK 126             30.55             2,444      27.95 -9% USA
BID 167             34.85             2,422      35.99 3% USA
NVLS 95             27.17             2,230      40.40 49% USA
CEL 93             21.82             2,171        8.16 -63% Israel
AIXG 80             20.38             2,074      14.00 -31% Germany
CBST 100             32.90             1,991      44.03 34% USA
LNCR 187             20.36             1,934      41.50 104% USA
CYOU 57             36.13             1,926      31.62 -12% China
ESI 15             67.27             1,865      14.47 -78% USA
BKE 182             38.60             1,826      45.26 17% USA
NSR 78             23.89             1,792      43.96 84% USA
VPHM 33             18.61             1,665      27.07 45% USA
OSK 64             18.00             1,650      33.74 87% USA
MYGN 116             18.62             1,640      27.40 47% USA
PTNR 141             10.51             1,640        5.99 -43% Israel
ASMI 149             24.55             1,596      38.32 56% Netherlands
CACI 151             49.92             1,592      58.22 17% USA
EXPR 124             17.47             1,552      18.16 4% USA
GAME 18               5.40             1,537        3.22 -40% China
EME 91             21.08             1,446      35.43 68% USA
VECO 11             33.00             1,419      30.89 -6% USA
LPS 38             16.35             1,403      22.99 41% USA
QLGC 129             13.04             1,379      11.05 -15% USA
PRGS 132             19.30             1,336      23.54 22% USA
ICON 115             17.50             1,320      23.25 33% USA
IPXL 90             18.81             1,273      21.02 12% USA
MANT 54             34.09             1,254      26.12 -23% USA
CHE 198             55.34             1,197      72.69 31% USA
BPI 13             20.40             1,182      10.12 -50% USA
MKSI 85             22.10             1,169      27.70 25% USA
CECO 40             15.36             1,160        3.30 -79% USA
VCI 135             23.03             1,155      28.00 22% USA
MDP 71             23.84             1,089      33.99 43% USA
PDLI 7               5.80             1,079        7.08 22% USA
PWRD 105             20.28             1,073      12.03 -41% China
CUB 82             39.96             1,068      46.42 16% USA
OVTI 123             17.35             1,065      15.29 -12% USA
STRA 48             90.11             1,058      54.63 -39% USA
DLX 65             20.30             1,049      33.37 64% USA
PRX 22             28.50             1,046      50.00 75% USA
SPRD 74             18.45             1,001      16.60 -10% China
PWER 43               6.88                 965        3.97 -42% USA
FICO 192             23.85                 960      44.49 87% USA
CMTL 62             27.34                 885      26.62 -3% USA
ARO 87             10.52                 855      13.81 31% USA
SAVE 25             11.74                 843      19.25 64% USA
MNTA 17             16.13                 823      12.43 -23% USA
SYNA 165             23.44                 821      32.97 41% USA
VG 155               3.15                 770        2.49 -21% USA
MDCO 79             13.99                 760      30.23 116% USA
TRLG 200             28.69                 718      24.88 -13% USA
UIS 27             16.30                 703      17.50 7% USA
KFY 51             14.85                 700      15.88 7% USA
TSRA 9             13.27                 683      17.23 30% USA
WWE 168               9.04                 676        8.25 -9% USA
LSCC 199               5.15                 626        4.18 -19% USA
IOSP 184             25.05                 614      39.84 59% United Kingdom
MCRL 183               9.74                 614      10.21 5% USA
KLIC 32               7.98                 592      12.58 58% USA
ASEI 102             63.07                 589      67.85 8% USA
AVEO 47             15.91                 586        7.81 -51% USA
DGIT 92             20.20                 561      10.27 -49% USA
SBGI 162               6.90                 560      13.12 90% USA
BRKS 112               8.53                 556        9.16 7% USA
NTCT 145             12.49                 541      25.25 102% USA
BLC 175               5.15                 536        7.92 54% USA
PRIM 171             10.26                 525      18.26 78% USA
CPLA 19             30.42                 477      27.91 -8% USA
STEC 189               9.05                 477        5.12 -43% USA
PKE 178             22.57                 470      26.11 16% USA
UNTD 76               5.29                 469        6.35 20% USA
AMED 49             15.37                 446      11.36 -26% USA
CSGS 106             12.74                 423      19.05 50% USA
AEIS 170               9.24                 408      14.57 58% USA
MFW 144             20.79                 405      25.00 20% USA
TNAV 6               8.80                 401        7.97 -9% USA
USNA 50             25.22                 397      36.36 44% USA
HITK 107             28.53                 370      37.37 31% USA
ENTR 73               4.08                 364        5.56 36% USA
TNDM 180             10.53                 362        3.10 -71% USA
INSP 185               9.11                 347      12.50 37% USA
NANO 163             14.49                 340      15.55 7% USA
EGY 41               5.81                 337        9.14 57% USA
LHCG 89             18.32                 336      21.03 15% USA
USMO 35             14.73                 332      11.53 -22% USA
NTRI 158             11.76                 321        8.80 -25% USA
DEPO 5               5.88                 318        6.25 6% USA
AFCE 176             12.26                 304      26.72 118% USA
RBCN 173             11.99                 287        6.34 -47% USA
MIPS 109               5.19                 281        7.87 52% USA
STV 1               4.74                 280        1.81 -62% China
LTXC 28               5.53                 279        6.47 17% USA
UEPS 36               6.15                 278        5.29 -14% South Africa
ITRN 191             13.00                 273      14.31 10% Israel
GMAN 148             13.65                 265      11.89 -13% USA
CXDC 177               5.20                 247        4.35 -16% China
CHOP 101               3.87                 229        2.27 -41% China
MED 75             14.82                 214      27.60 86% USA
PETS 61               9.70                 211      11.53 19% USA
GTIV 63               6.64                 205      10.47 58% USA
RTEC 186               6.39                 205      13.88 117% USA
CBPO 108               7.63                 204      19.21 152% China
LINC 98               8.93                 201        5.13 -43% USA
CRAY 16               5.34                 187      18.52 247% USA
OMPI 127               9.63                 180      13.91 44% USA
LIWA 52               5.93                 179        4.41 -26% China
NVMI 14               6.38                 173        8.83 38% Israel
AFAM 23             18.18                 170      19.76 9% USA
OSIR 110               5.01                 166        8.97 79% USA
WSTL 125               2.27                 159        1.90 -16% USA
GNI 66           105.40                 158      73.00 -31% USA
MGIC 166               4.21                 156        4.71 12% Israel
KONG 147               4.15                 156        6.16 48% China
GSIT 134               4.78                 145        6.69 40% USA
PRSC 60             10.21                 136      19.14 87% USA
CNTF 69               2.56                 136        1.37 -46% China
XNY 10               2.27                 132        1.34 -41% China
AGX 8               9.60                 131      18.98 98% USA
GEDU 133               5.00                 130             -   -100% China
EDS 103               4.15                 130        1.37 -67% Hong Kong
ASTX 2               2.04                 125        3.20 57% USA
RIMG 24             12.93                 124        7.01 -46% USA
CPIX 96               5.98                 124        4.11 -31% USA
MPAA 122               9.75                 120        6.97 -29% USA
UFPT 197             16.11                 112      19.40 20% USA
CHKE 37             12.99                 111      13.70 5% USA
CGA 164               3.95                 106        3.77 -5% China
ASYS 34             10.05                   99        3.94 -61% USA
NATH 156             18.80                   98      37.26 98% USA
COOL 130               2.38                   96        0.73 -69% USA
DJCO 30             68.85                   95      97.31 41% USA
MEDW 118             11.17                   92      22.00 97% USA
LMLP 3               2.85                   83        3.44 21% Canada
CVVT 181               2.16                   77        0.46 -79% China
CREG 104               1.39                   77        1.09 -22% China
ACAD 44               1.30                   68        5.22 302% USA
CNGL 31               1.74                   64        0.01 -99% China
GURE 97               1.79                   64        1.18 -34% USA
LACO 12               2.37                   63        3.08 30% USA
SPU 121               2.26                   60        2.60 15% China
MBND 86               3.07                   59        2.09 -32% USA
PERI 4               5.84                   59      12.18 109% Israel
BSQR 152               4.71                   54        3.30 -30% USA
WSTG 72             10.93                   51      12.01 10% USA

Hmm, let us break that into deciles.


Decile Average of Change
                         1 8.9%
                         2 18.4%
                         3 13.3%
                         4 19.9%
                         5 6.5%
                         6 16.9%
                         7 23.4%
                         8 29.9%
                         9 4.0%
                       10 15.9%
 Grand Total  15.7%

So market caps between 187m and 525m did the best. But hard to get excited about even 29.9% as the very best when the R3000 was up 27%. So I think we can say market cap may not be the key.

By Country

We have looked at this in the past, I am just working my way up to the good ones!

County Change Count
Hong Kong -67.0% 1
Bermuda -32.7% 1
Germany -31.3% 1
Finland -30.1% 1
Brazil -27.8% 1
China -23.6% 18
South Africa -14.0% 1
Canada -13.4% 2
Sweden 9.4% 2
Norway 10.4% 1
Israel 10.6% 6
USA 22.1% 161
Cayman Islands 23.5% 1
United Kingdom 33.9% 2
Netherlands 56.1% 1
Grand Total 15.7% 200

As we have discussed in the past, throwing out China really helps.  Now if we look at just USA and by decile, we start to see that small cap did a bit better, though it isn't a huge differential:

Decile Change Count
1 16.0% 15
2 20.9% 18
3 19.6% 17
4 31.3% 15
5 10.1% 18
6 14.7% 19
7 23.4% 20
8 40.7% 14
9 21.8% 12
10 29.0% 13
Grand Total 22.1% 161

By Yield

I have discussed many times that stocks with dividends over 2.5% have outperformed.  Let us look at this list:

Decile Change Count
1 0.7% 20
2 24.6% 20
3 22.8% 20
4 16.3% 17
5 15.5% 123
Grand Total 15.7% 200

Interestingly, the highest yielding stocks did the worst. At first I scratched my head on this.  But recall, my data points are simply starting and ending price.  So this approach does not give credit for dividends, while my MFI tracking does. Deciles 2 and 3 have yields running from 1.4% to 5.0%, so when you add in 18 months of dividends, they did perform very well. "Decile" 5 are stocks with no dividend.

With that, I will stop for now and post more in a bit.  I want to look at price versus average of past two years and then some growth characteristics and earning stability measures.

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