You can pick many stocks that featured this myopia. But the one that caught my eye was JRCC, which is discussed regularly on Ed's Talking Stock. This is a coal company, which have clearly been out-of-favor. In part due to Obama's environmental stance, but also because last year was a warm winter and because Natural Gas is cheaper and cleaner.
When Romney had the first debate, he commented how he "loved coal". JRCC was already a highly shorted stock, and the great short squeeze began, on the premise MR would win:
The chart is a stunner. Look how the daily volume went from under 1 million shares a day for the first five days of October to over 4 million shares from October 6th to yesterday. And the price started $2.91, peaked at $5.43 on October 23 and crashed yesterday to $2.70! And while the decline did admittedly start pre-election day, the race for the exits started on Wednesday as it dropped from $4.70 to $2.70. A real chance on this stock to either make or lose a ton of money.
MFI Update
As I have mentioned, MFI continues to sputter along. On my tracking portfolios, the past 22 monthly portfolios have lost to the Russell 3000 AND the next 11 are also losing. That is beyond stinky. For my own portfolio, I mentioned that I am essentially flat as I have tried to use some of my analytics to identify the subsets of MFI stock universe that are better.
| Stock | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| DLB | $34.43 | $32.74 | $0.00 | -4.9% | -1.0% |
| KFY | $13.98 | $13.65 | $0.00 | -2.4% | -1.0% |
| MSFT | $30.19 | $28.83 | $0.00 | -4.5% | -1.0% |
| NSU | $3.62 | $4.70 | $0.00 | 30.0% | -1.0% |
| UIS | $19.96 | $16.37 | $0.00 | -18.0% | -1.0% |
| Totals | 0.0% | -1.0% |
Dividend Portfolio
This is the good news. In hindsight, switching from MFI to my dividend approach last year was a savvy more.
| Stock | Shares | Avg Cost | Current Price | Dividends Received | Pct Change | R3K Change | Diff |
| BHK | 2,219 | 12.73 | 16.16 | 2,256.27 | 34.9% | 2.2% | 32.8% |
| CSCO | 4,262 | 17.20 | 16.82 | 1,417.26 | -0.3% | 3.5% | -3.7% |
| CSQ | 5,443 | 8.27 | 9.64 | 4,863.08 | 27.4% | 18.0% | 9.5% |
| FSC | 2,753 | 9.79 | 10.52 | 1,531.56 | 13.1% | 1.4% | 11.7% |
| HFC | 1,100 | 33.98 | 40.75 | 1,813.78 | 24.8% | 0.1% | 24.6% |
| INTC | 1,973 | 21.00 | 20.80 | 1,998.36 | 3.8% | 11.8% | -8.0% |
| JPM | 1,673 | 35.22 | 40.62 | 992.36 | 17.0% | 3.3% | 13.7% |
| JQC | 4,135 | 9.10 | 9.86 | 4,107.71 | 19.2% | 2.9% | 16.3% |
| KMF | 1,844 | 21.97 | 28.85 | 3,637.01 | 40.3% | 14.6% | 25.8% |
| MPC | 579 | 43.89 | 53.12 | 343.47 | 22.4% | 1.1% | 21.3% |
| MSFT | 965 | 26.83 | 28.83 | 1,266.94 | 12.3% | 12.3% | 0.0% |
| O | 552 | 19.17 | 38.40 | 7,294.60 | 169.2% | 63.3% | 105.8% |
| OIBAX | 3,861 | 4.91 | 6.55 | 6,503.93 | 67.8% | 63.7% | 4.1% |
| PGR | 2,000 | 20.48 | 22.35 | - | 9.1% | 1.9% | 7.2% |
| PRE | 532 | 67.33 | 79.49 | 956.09 | 20.7% | 1.9% | 18.8% |
| PVD | 427 | 65.10 | 107.90 | 3,787.87 | 79.4% | 14.4% | 65.0% |
| SAI | 4,680 | 12.83 | 10.98 | 1,376.70 | -12.2% | -2.3% | -9.8% |
| STO | 1,040 | 23.82 | 24.00 | 1,121.00 | 5.3% | 16.8% | -11.5% |
| VIVHY | 2,296 | 16.70 | 18.97 | 3,749.20 | 23.4% | 0.5% | 22.9% |
| Total Open | 49,017 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 13.3% | |||
| Closed | 11.4% | 8.8% | 2.6% | ||||
| Combined | 13.8% | 8.6% | 5.2% | ||||
| IRR Since 12/31/10 | 14.3% | ||||||
| 2012 Gain | 20.2% | ||||||
| Estimated Dividends for Next 12 Months | |||||||
| Stock | Shares | Ann Dividend / Share | Yield | Projected Dividend | Sector | Worth | |
| BHK | 2,219 | $ 0.88 | 5.4% | 1,944 | Bond | 35,855 | |
| CSCO | 4,262 | $ 0.56 | 3.3% | 2,387 | Tech | 71,688 | |
| CSQ | 5,443 | $ 0.84 | 8.7% | 4,572 | Hybrid | 52,466 | |
| FSC | 2,753 | $ 1.15 | 10.9% | 3,164 | Hybrid | 28,957 | |
| HFC | 1,100 | $ 1.40 | 3.4% | 1,540 | Resources | 44,823 | |
| INTC | 1,973 | $ 0.92 | 4.4% | 1,815 | Tech | 41,044 | |
| JPM | 1,673 | $ 1.20 | 3.0% | 2,008 | Finance | 67,956 | |
| JQC | 4,135 | $ 0.80 | 8.1% | 3,308 | Hybrid | 40,774 | |
| KMF | 1,844 | $ 1.72 | 6.0% | 3,172 | Pipelines | 53,197 | |
| MPC | 579 | $ 1.40 | 2.6% | 810 | Resources | 30,751 | |
| MSFT | 965 | $ 0.80 | 2.8% | 772 | Tech | 27,833 | |
| O | 552 | $ 1.72 | 4.5% | 949 | Services | 21,196 | |
| OIBAX | 3,861 | $ 0.34 | 5.2% | 1,309 | Bond | 25,288 | |
| PGR | 2,000 | $ 0.41 | 1.8% | 820 | Insurance | 44,700 | |
| PRE | 532 | $ 2.56 | 3.2% | 1,361 | Insurance | 42,268 | |
| PVD | 427 | $ 7.65 | 7.1% | 3,266 | Finance | 46,070 | |
| SAI | 4,680 | $ 0.48 | 4.4% | 2,246 | Services | 51,385 | |
| STO | 1,040 | $ 0.98 | 4.1% | 1,019 | Resources | 24,956 | |
| VIVHY | 2,296 | $ 1.30 | 6.9% | 2,985 | Consumer | 43,555 | |
| Total | 5.0% | 39,448 | 794,762 | ||||
| Cash | 428,901 | ||||||
As I have mentioned, I have been moving more and more into cash (also recall, the amounts show in tables are my actual amounts multiplied by a secret factor). You can see I am now 35% cash... plus I have about a 9% position in SDS, to hedge my overall portfolio (though I do not count that in my dividend portfolio). That has been a good move thus far as my SDS is up 3% (recall I doubled my stake yesterday).
I think that is update enough this morning. My coffee is gone... time to get out and about!
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment