Wednesday, November 07, 2012

Stunning

No news to people I am sure... Obama won yesterday and the market is selling off sharply.  I am nothing short of stunned.  I thought markets were supposed to be looking 6 to 12 months forward, but apparently not so.  We were not even looking 24 hours forward.

I am not as surprised. As I wrote in my Fiscal Cliff blog the other day, I have been very concerned for quite a few months.  I had moved my dividend portfolio to 32% cash, plus I took a largish position in SDS (a 2x S&P 500 bear fund).  I still expect further selling pressure, a 2% drop in my mind is a drop in the bucket.  Ten to fifteen percent seems more likely to me.

Of course any time there is a sell-off, one should be thinking about what they'd like to buy and at what prices.  I think in my dividend portfolio, I will be looking at what I have sold:

TROX
WBK
LNC
SBS
PM

I also have my 2nd tranche of MFI stocks coming up November 15th.  Not yet sure what will be in there, but I am hoping for some bargain shopping.  AAPL may be a real possibility as it has dropped significantly since touching $700.

Here is my current dividend portfolio:


Stock Shares Avg Cost Current Price Dividends Received Pct Change R3K Change Diff
BHK         2,219         12.73         16.14          2,256.27 34.8% 3.5% 31.2%
CSCO         4,262         17.20         17.24          1,417.26 2.2% 4.8% -2.7%
CSQ         5,404           8.26           9.96          4,487.43 30.7% 19.7% 10.9%
FSC         2,753           9.79         10.54          1,531.56 13.3% 2.8% 10.5%
HFC         1,100         33.98         40.60          1,813.78 24.3% 1.5% 22.8%
INTC         1,973         21.01         21.03          1,998.36 4.9% 13.3% -8.4%
JPM         1,673         35.22         40.70              992.36 17.2% 4.7% 12.5%
JQC         4,135           9.10           9.88          4,107.71 19.4% 4.3% 15.1%
KMF         1,844         21.97         28.85          3,637.01 40.3% 16.1% 24.2%
KSS            632         48.18         54.60              400.19 14.6% 3.2% 11.5%
MPC            579         43.89         55.62              343.47 28.1% 2.4% 25.6%
MSFT            965         26.83         29.19          1,266.94 13.7% 13.9% -0.2%
O            552         19.17         38.85          7,294.60 171.5% 65.5% 106.0%
OIBAX         3,861           4.91           6.56          6,503.93 68.0% 65.9% 2.1%
PGR         2,000         20.48         22.18                       -   8.3% 3.3% 5.0%
PRE            532         67.33         79.80              956.09 21.2% 3.3% 17.9%
PVD            427         65.11      107.40          3,787.87 78.6% 15.9% 62.7%
SAI         4,680         12.83         11.11          1,376.70 -11.1% -1.0% -10.1%
STO         1,040         23.82         24.07          1,121.00 5.6% 18.4% -12.8%
VIVHY         2,296         16.70         19.22          3,749.20 24.9% 1.9% 23.0%

           



           



           



           



           



           



           



           










Total Open


             49,042 21.6% 9.2% 12.5%
Closed



11.3% 9.1% 2.2%
Combined



14.0% 9.1% 4.9%
IRR Since 12/31/10


14.7%

2012 Gain



21.0%



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