Saturday, October 20, 2012

Weekend Update October 20th 2012

We "celebrated" the October 19th 1987 crash yesterday.  Thankfully, we did not get a replay - though it was not a stellar day as people seem to be awakening to the fact that the US economy is just limping along and the World economy has a lot of cracks.

While no one likes to see their portfolio lose value, I am ok with a correction.  I have moved to some cash, so I am relatively defensive.  In addition, the beauty of my dividend portfolio is that I am re-investing the dividends, so lower prices ==> more shares.  As long as dividends are not getting slashed, I should be fine.

My Dividend Portfolio


Stock Shares Avg Cost Current Price Dividends Received Pct Change R3K Change Diff
BHK          2,219      12.73        15.48         2,256 29.6% 5.7% 23.9%
CSCO          4,262      17.20        18.04         1,417 6.8% 7.0% -0.2%
CSQ          5,404        8.26        10.17         4,487 33.3% 22.2% 11.0%
FSC          2,753        9.79        10.70         1,532 14.9% 4.9% 10.0%
HFC          1,100      33.98        38.18         1,814 17.2% 3.6% 13.6%
INTC          1,952      21.01        21.27         1,559 5.0% 15.9% -10.8%
JPM          1,673      35.23        42.32            992 21.8% 6.9% 14.9%
JQC          4,135        9.10         9.78         4,108 18.4% 6.5% 11.9%
KMF          1,844      21.96        28.46         3,637 38.6% 18.5% 20.0%
KSS             632      48.18        52.93            400 11.2% 5.3% 5.8%
MPC             579      43.89        54.94            343 26.5% 4.6% 21.9%
MSFT             965      26.83        28.64         1,267 11.6% 16.2% -4.6%
O             552      19.17        40.94         7,212 181.6% 69.0% 112.6%
OIBAX          3,861        4.91         6.59         6,423 68.2% 69.4% -1.2%
PGR          2,000      20.48        22.92              -   11.9% 5.4% 6.5%
PRE             532      67.33        79.95            956 21.4% 5.4% 16.0%
PVD             417      64.11      109.25         2,737 80.6% 19.1% 61.6%
SAI          4,680      12.83        10.89         1,377 -12.9% 1.0% -13.9%
STO          1,040      23.82        25.78         1,121 12.8% 20.8% -8.1%
TROX          2,423      23.94        22.84            500 -3.7% 4.2% -7.9%
VIVHY          2,296      16.70        20.30         3,749 31.3% 4.0% 27.3%
WBK             508    105.89      129.83         6,166 34.1% 16.8% 17.3%
























































Total Open

       54,053 21.4% 11.4% 10.0%
Closed



11.3% 9.2% 2.1%
Combined


14.3% 9.8% 4.4%
IRR Since 12/31/10


15.4%

2012 Gain


21.9%


As you can see, it really continues to be a stellar year.  I did have one transaction (outside of re-investments) during the week.  I sold 1/2 my PRE position.  It had had a great run.  The sale is a long term capital gain, and I wanted to lock that in at a 15% tax rate.  In addition, I am a little bit worried about a shift in the Property Catastrophe Reinsurance market, which is about 10 to 12% of PRE book.  More and more hedge funds and pensions are entering this market with their capital and rates could start getting driven down. I still think they are a solid company with a great balance sheet, so I still hold a pretty sizeable investment in them.

Here are my dividend yields and upcoming dividends:


Estimated Dividends for Next 12 Months









Stock Shares Ann Dividend / Share Yield Projected Dividend Sector Worth
BHK          2,219  $    0.88 5.7%         1,944 Bond         34,349
CSCO          4,262  $    0.56 3.1%         2,387 Tech         76,895
CSQ          5,404  $    0.84 8.3%         4,539 Hybrid         54,955
FSC          2,753  $    1.15 10.7%         3,164 Hybrid         29,452
HFC          1,100  $    1.40 3.7%         1,540 Resources         41,996
INTC          1,952  $    0.92 4.3%         1,796 Tech         41,514
JPM          1,673  $    1.20 2.8%         2,007 Finance         70,786
JQC          4,135  $    0.80 8.2%         3,308 Hybrid         40,445
KMF          1,844  $    1.72 6.0%         3,172 Pipelines         52,491
KSS             632  $    1.28 2.4%            809 Consumer         33,472
MPC             579  $    1.40 2.5%            810 Resources         31,805
MSFT             965  $    0.80 2.8%            772 Tech         27,649
O             552  $    1.72 4.2%            949 Services         22,598
OIBAX          3,861  $    0.34 5.1%         1,309 Bond         25,442
PGR          2,000  $    0.41 1.8%            820 Insurance         45,840
PRE             532  $    2.56 3.2%         1,361 Insurance         42,513
PVD             417  $    5.13 4.7%         2,140 Finance         45,578
SAI          4,680  $    0.48 4.4%         2,246 Services         50,967
STO          1,040  $    0.98 3.8%         1,019 Resources         26,806
TROX          2,423  $    1.00 4.4%         2,423 Resources         55,330
VIVHY          2,296  $    1.30 6.4%         2,985 Consumer         46,609
WBK             508  $    8.13 6.3%         4,126 Finance         65,897



























               -  



































Total

4.7%        45,629
      963,388














Upcoming Dividends











Stock Shares x Date Div/Share Est New Shares Amount
PVD             417 10/22/12  $      2.52             9.0          1,051
OIBAX          3,861 10/30/12  $      0.02           10.0              69
O             552 10/30/12  $      0.15             2.0              83
INTC          1,952 11/3/12  $      0.23           20.0             439
CSQ          5,404 11/9/12  $      0.07           37.0             378
BHK          2,219 11/11/12  $      0.07           10.0             162
FSC          2,753 11/11/12  $      0.10           24.0             264
JQC          4,135 11/12/12  $      0.07           28.0             276
MPC             579 11/14/12  $      0.35             3.0             203
MSFT             965 11/14/12  $      0.23           13.0             222
WBK             508 11/15/12  $      4.20           16.0          2,132

I do like the metric of dividends, rather than asset value as it is more stable and lets me be a little more rational, rather than being like Chicken Little.  You will note PVD just announced their Fall dividend.  $2.52 per share is very nice.  That works out to 7% at their current value per year and 11.9% based on my cost basis.  They paid $1.80 last year in the fall... so a nice bump.

Finally,  here is my August 15 MFI portfolio.  While it is still in the black, it has fallen back a bit.  Still, can't complain.  I am in it for a year... hopefully the MSFT Surface and Windows 8 will take off.


Stock Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
DLB $34.43 $31.75 $0.00 -7.8% 2.4%
KFY $13.98 $13.68 $0.00 -2.1% 2.4%
MSFT $30.19 $28.64 $0.00 -5.1% 2.4%
NSU $3.62 $4.68 $0.00 29.5% 2.4%
UIS $19.96 $20.77 $0.00 4.0% 2.4%
Totals


3.7% 2.4%

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