Saturday, October 27, 2012

To Panic or Not To Panic?

As good a game as one can talk, it is all too easy to panic when under a little stress or duress.  I did that (to some degree) on Tuesday morning (or was it Monday?).  I think the news that set me off was Dupont's earnings, specifically their comments on Titanium Dioxide

 (Profit in the performance-chemicals unit declined on lower demand for the white pigment titanium dioxide, and electronics earnings fell on lower sales of photovoltaic materials.
“About 60 percent of incremental earnings growth since 2009 has come from titanium dioxide,” Hassan Ahmed, a New York- based analyst at Alembic Global Advisors who rates the shares neutral, the equivalent of hold, said today by phone. “If that’s cycling down, it seriously jeopardizes Ellen’s earnings growth target and has quite serious ramifications for 2013 and beyond.”).

Well, one of my largest dividend holding is/was TROX, and like 100% of their business is Titanium Dioxide.  So I panicked, and sold all my shares at the opening bell. Looks like a savvy move thus far, as TROX is off another 5.2% since I pulled the trigger, though they did bounce off their lows.

So that was (so far) a good panic.  But I also sold my GTAT, just thinking I wanted to be out of some of the higher beta names.  That was not such a savvy move, as GTAT is up a snappy 8% since the sale.  Hmmm.  Oh well, at least I am a bit more defensive as we head into the election cycle. A lot of pundits seem to think the market will explode upwards if Romney wins.  I am not so sure.

Here is how my dividend portfolio looks.  Still holding up solidly!

 
Current Portfolio













Stock Shares Avg Cost Current Price Dividends Received Pct Change R3K Change Diff
BHK          2,219      12.73        15.79         2,256 32.0% 4.2% 27.8%
CSCO          4,262      17.20        17.29         1,417 2.5% 5.6% -3.1%
CSQ          5,404        8.26        10.20         4,487 33.6% 20.5% 13.1%
FSC          2,753        9.79        10.72         1,532 15.1% 3.5% 11.7%
HFC          1,100      33.98        38.89         1,814 19.3% 2.2% 17.1%
INTC          1,952      21.01        21.95         1,559 8.3% 14.2% -6.0%
JPM          1,673      35.23        41.16            992 18.5% 5.4% 13.1%
JQC          4,136        9.10         9.83         4,108 18.9% 5.0% 13.9%
KMF          1,844      21.97        29.11         3,637 41.5% 16.9% 24.6%
KSS             632      48.18        52.34            400 9.9% 3.9% 6.1%
MPC             579      43.89        55.61            343 28.1% 3.1% 24.9%
MSFT             965      26.83        28.21         1,267 10.0% 14.6% -4.6%
O             552      19.17        39.61         7,212 174.7% 66.7% 108.0%
OIBAX          3,861        4.91         6.56         6,423 67.6% 67.1% 0.5%
PGR          2,000      20.48        22.58              -   10.3% 4.0% 6.3%
PRE             532      67.33        81.32            956 23.5% 4.0% 19.5%
PVD             427      65.08      105.36         3,788 75.5% 16.7% 58.8%
SAI          4,680      12.83        10.80         1,377 -13.6% -0.4% -13.2%
STO          1,040      23.82        24.65         1,121 8.0% 19.2% -11.1%
VIVHY          2,296      16.70        20.63         3,749 33.3% 2.6% 30.8%
WBK             508    105.89      130.95         6,166 35.1% 15.1% 20.0%
































































Total Open

       54,604 22.8% 10.3% 12.5%
Closed



10.7% 9.0% 1.7%
Combined


14.1% 9.4% 4.7%
IRR Since 12/31/10


15.1%

2012 Gain


21.4%

















Estimated Dividends for Next 12 Months











Stock Shares Ann Dividend / Share Yield Projected Dividend Sector Worth
BHK          2,219  $    0.88 5.5%         1,944 Bond         35,035
CSCO          4,262  $    0.56 3.2%         2,387 Tech         73,693
CSQ          5,404  $    0.84 8.2%         4,539 Hybrid         55,117
FSC          2,753  $    1.15 10.7%         3,164 Hybrid         29,508
HFC          1,100  $    1.40 3.6%         1,540 Resources         42,777
INTC          1,952  $    0.92 4.2%         1,796 Tech         42,851
JPM          1,673  $    1.20 2.9%         2,007 Finance         68,849
JQC          4,136  $    0.80 8.1%         3,308 Hybrid         40,652
KMF          1,844  $    1.72 5.9%         3,171 Pipelines         53,676
KSS             632  $    1.28 2.4%            809 Consumer         33,099
MPC             579  $    1.40 2.5%            810 Resources         32,193
MSFT             965  $    0.80 2.8%            772 Tech         27,234
O             552  $    1.72 4.3%            949 Services         21,864
OIBAX          3,861  $    0.34 5.2%         1,309 Bond         25,326
PGR          2,000  $    0.41 1.8%            820 Insurance         45,160
PRE             532  $    2.56 3.1%         1,361 Insurance         43,241
PVD             427  $    7.65 7.3%         3,267 Finance         45,001
SAI          4,680  $    0.48 4.4%         2,246 Services         50,543
STO          1,040  $    0.98 4.0%         1,019 Resources         25,631
VIVHY          2,296  $    1.30 6.3%         2,985 Consumer         47,366
WBK             508  $    8.13 6.2%         4,126 Finance         66,465






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Total

4.9%        44,333
      905,283
















Upcoming Dividends













Stock Shares x Date Div/Share Est New Shares Amount

OIBAX          3,861 10/30/12  $      0.02           10.0              69

O             552 10/30/12  $      0.15             2.0              83

INTC          1,952 11/3/12  $      0.23           20.0             439

CSQ          5,404 11/9/12  $      0.07           37.0             378

BHK          2,219 11/11/12  $      0.07           10.0             162

FSC          2,753 11/11/12  $      0.10           24.0             264

JQC          4,136 11/12/12  $      0.07           28.0             276

MPC             579 11/14/12  $      0.35             3.0             203

MSFT             965 11/14/12  $      0.23           13.0             222

WBK             508 11/15/12  $      4.20           16.0          2,132

PRE             532 11/16/12  $      0.62             4.0             330


The bad news is my MFI portfolio, it is sucking seroious wind:

 
August 15 Tranche  









Stock Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
DLB $34.43 $30.74 $0.00 -10.7% 1.0%
KFY $13.98 $13.48 $0.00 -3.6% 1.0%
MSFT $30.19 $28.21 $0.00 -6.6% 1.0%
NSU $3.62 $4.72 $0.00 30.6% 1.0%
UIS $19.96 $16.62 $0.00 -16.8% 1.0%
Totals


-1.4% 1.0%

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