Monday, June 18, 2007

HNR and NPLA - Lessons Learned

In early February I was trying to decide between HNR and EGY. They were both out-of-favor energy stocks that had been on MFI lists for the past year. I took a look at HNR and saw that they did business in Venzuela. Thinking about Hugo Chavez, I quickly opted for EGY.

Since then? EGY is down about 20% and HNR is up 40%.
Q: What does this prove?
A: The best stock pick is not obvious.

NPLA is a stock I have been tracking in my Just Listed Portfolio. When it 1st showed up I thought, "flash in the pan" thinking it didn't have a way to earn $ going forward and that it was a fluke on the list like PTSC.

Since then? Up 124%!
Q: What does this prove?
A: The best stock pick is not obvious.

BTW, in they have a segment for stocks of note called "in play". I keep waiting for (ahem) NPLA to be "in play".

Not much news. My portfolio was up nominally. My one Just Listed Stock that I actually bought (CHCG.OB) was up 6% to save the day.

C'est Tout!


AyRon said...

mg- Looking forward to your MFI contest. I felt the same way as you did about HNR, but picked it because it came up on my random method of following MFI. If you get a moment, check out my blog for losers and winners of the random method. Maybe I'll convert you!


Nick said...


I own both EGY and HNR and purchased HNR primarily because Monish Pabrai was actively accumulating it. Dhandho Investor is well worth the read!


Ron said...


Since I got hit hard with PTSC (I overbought it in violation of the MFI rules,) I am afraid to buy another bulletin board stock?

Do you think this is irrational? Should i again consider bulletin board stocks?


justadrone said...

What else is Pabrai buying? I do need to read his book. I may go to after typing this post.

I don't think people should shy away from OB stocks, though I have also done poorly with them (PTSC & EZEN). Just don't break the rules and over-weight them.

Ayron's blog is nice. I encourage people to take a peek.

Travis said...

I too picked EGY over HNR :( Sometimes I think the random approach of Ayron's would just be much easier than spending hours on the same stocks every month and not guaranteeing greater returns.

Hindsight is 20/20, but coin flipping still seems like gambling.


joe said...

Marsh, Do you know a gold mining stock in the MFI universe. I already own FCX, which is mostly copper. I believe that PCU mines gold as well, but that stock has shot up so much I'm wary of getting into it. I was going to post this question on the yahoo bd., but yahoo tells me that I'm bouncing emails (i'm not!). Thanks.