Monday, June 25, 2007

True Value

Another "decent" day. I gained more on the benchmark, but lost real dollars. I did buy a new stock this morning, but I bought it about 6 hours too early.

USHS - this is from my just listed analysis and as one reader suggested (George?) I may have tried to catch a falling knife. It ended up down 13%. I'd have rather bought it cheaper, but I still like the company. I have a year, just am starting in a hole.

Even with the blistering of USHS, my portfolio was down a liveable 0.28%. Largely due to two stocks:

True Religion and
Value Line

TRLG was up a snappy 10% as they were upgraded, which surely toasted some shorts. While I don't get excited about upgrades or downgrades (I'd rather let the #s speak for themselves) I did like what the analyst said:

"Our faith has been renewed in this global growth story as we believe management is executing on key priorities," Lakner wrote.

Lakner said True Religion's new design team is helping the company expand outside its namesake denim business.

"The non-denim product, which we felt was lacking before, now looks much improved for spring 2008 and we think that this part of the business can begin to expand significantly beginning with spring 2008 orders," Lakner wrote in a client note.

I wonder if he used the word "faith" intentionally?

Then VALU shot up 9%. At one time it was up over 13%. It is a lightly traded stock, about 6,000 shares per day. Today though, lots of buys with over 46,000 shares being traded. No clue as to why it was up, but this stock was around $41 a share just 3 weeks ago and is now almost $50. But it has traded as high as $58 in past 52 weeks.

Why the swings? As JG asks (and I paraphase) is Value Line worth less than it was 6 months ago? Is it worth more than it was 3 weeks ago? Or does the market just go nuts from time to time? I think the same can be said of USHS from the 1st paragraph. The market just goes nuts at times.

Finally a plug for my stock picking contest:

Last week to enter. Contest begins next Monday and late entrants will not be permitted. We have over 30 entries so far. Contest is to pick 15 MFI stocks at roughly $10,000 per stock. Have to buy and hold for a year. Instructions at the VSE to drop me a line if you enter and I'll add you to email list so we can trade ideas and harass one another. There will be a prize for the winner and I will ask winner to share how he/she selected the stocks.

MG

Use the information and directions below to join the game.

Game ID: MFI_Contest
Game Password: greenblatt

  1. Open this link and read the competition summary:
    http://vse.marketwatch.com/Game/StartViewGame.aspx?id=MFI_Contest
  2. Click on the 'Join Game' link.
  3. If you are an existing Virtual Stock Exchange member, enter your Email address and Password in the login panel and get set to trade. If you are a new user, follow the link to register - it's easy!
  4. Follow the instructions and start trading!

Join now, and see if you can win my MFI Stock Contest competition! The more participants the higher the level of competition. Can you master the market?

BTW, people are allowed to pick stocks that have been on MFI lists in June (will anyone pick VSE because contest is on Virtual Stock Exchange?). here is a list of many eligible stocks (though not exhaustive):

ABC
ACN
AEO
ALOY
AMAT
AMED
AMEN
AMSG
ARDNA
ASPV
ATRM
AVCA
AVCI
AVR
AXCA
BBSI
BBY
BEBE
BJS
BPT
BVF
CAW
CHCG
CHKE
CLHI
CMTL
CONN
CRAI
CRWS
CRYP
CUTR
CVCO
CXR
DBRN
DGX
DLX
DPZ
EFX
EGLT
EGY
EPIQ
FCGI
FDG
FMXL
FRX
FTD
FTO
GCI
GIB
GLBL
GNI
GW
HAS
HBMFF
HDIX
HLF
HLYS
HOC
HOG
HRSH
HSII
HURC
HW
IBIN
ICFI
IPSU
ISNS
IVAC
JAKK
JRC
KFY
KG
KSW
KSWS
KYCN
LNCR
LRCX
LRW
LXK
MDP
MEOH
MM
MOCO
MRO
MSTR
MTEX
NATH
NOOF
NPLA
NUE
NXG
OFI
OPMR
OVTI
PACR
PALM
PBH
PCU
PDII
PDS
PMD
PMTI
PNCL
PPD
PRZ
PTEN
PWEI
RAIL
RHI
RNO
ROK
SCSS
SHOO
STEC
SUPX
TBL
TBV
TCK
TGB
TGIS
THE
TRLG
TSO
TZOO
UCLP
UEPS
UG
UNTD
USHS
USMO
USNA
USPH
UTMD
VALU
VGR
VPHM
VRGY
VSE
VSNT
WDC
WIRE
WMCO
WNR
WON
WPCS
WSTG
XJT
XOM
XRTX

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