Sunday, January 07, 2007

January 6th, 2006 Model Portfolio

My first model portfolio is a year old. If you had bought equal shares of these 24 stocks, you'd have a gain of 15.5%. If you had bought a blend of Russell 2000 value and Russell 3000 indices you'd have made 13.2%. So MFI won round 1 by 5.1%. It should be noted that the "win" was primarily due to AEOS (not unlike my portfolio and PNCL). You don't want to miss the couple stocks that really shoot up. And it would help if you avoid the 2 or 3 dogs. Easier said than done I am sure.

I also looked at after tax impact as that interests me. 14.6% after tax for MFI vs 11.24% for benchmark. So about 3.4% point margin after tax. I don't know if other people care about an additional percentage point, but over time those add up.

Current Portfolio
Stock Purchase Date Cost Current Gain
aeos 01/06/06 $15.90 $32.32 103.3%
ftd 01/06/06 $9.54 $18.05 89.2%
mvl 01/06/06 $16.69 $26.75 60.3%
noof 01/06/06 $6.59 $9.98 51.4%
egy 01/06/06 $4.53 $6.53 44.2%
chke 01/06/06 $32.87 $42.82 36.6%
mgln 01/06/06 $32.21 $42.86 33.1%
issc 01/06/06 $13.17 $16.65 26.4%
gbe 01/06/06 $9.25 $11.43 23.6%
mtex 01/06/06 $12.51 $15.03 22.4%
kfy 01/06/06 $19.33 $22.77 17.8%
anik 01/06/06 $11.53 $13.29 15.3%
syna 01/06/06 $26.12 $29.90 14.5%
wmco 01/06/06 $13.05 $14.45 10.7%
vtru 01/06/06 $34.04 $36.90 8.4%
jakk 01/06/06 $19.79 $21.20 7.1%
untd 01/06/06 $13.72 $13.62 6.0%
hrb 01/06/06 $24.22 $22.95 -2.9%
dlx 01/06/06 $29.62 $26.21 -5.6%
kg 01/06/06 $17.95 $16.20 -9.7%
ptec 01/06/06 $6.34 $4.63 -27.0%
catt 01/06/06 $14.51 $8.81 -39.3%
call 01/06/06 $4.71 $2.61 -44.6%
ford 01/06/06 $9.49 $4.35 -54.2%
Gain/Loss ($):
$45,757
Gain/Loss (%):
15.5%


There are lessons to be learned. I am now re-thinking whether I should pare down to 25 stocks. I havn't show any great stock-picking ability yet. Maybe by tossing a wider net, I will have a better chance of getting the PNCL or AEOS in my portfolio.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Hi there -

I had left you some comments about 4-5 month ago. I am also using the MFI formula for my investments and I am coming up on my one year anniversary. (I keep a blog - but can't keep up with the posts http://realmagicformulatest.blogspot.com/ )

Here are some of my observations for the year:
- Can't pick the winners / losers among the MFI stocks -- it's kind of an obvious observation, but we all try to think of ourselves as being able to pick a winner - we should just face it, we can't.

- Not sure how many stocks should make up the portfolio -- but I think I have too many (38 right now); I had started out with 20 right of the bat - then I needed to add at least 6-8 every 3 month. Now I have too many. My trading costs are very low - so it should not be that much of an issue.

- Timing is STILL VERY IMPORTANT: I compared my gains to yours in common stocks we both own -- and while some are about even, others show a huge difference. For example EGY is a BIG gainer for you (44%)- while it's just about even for me. SYNA is doing ok for you +14) while I am at +30%. We bought it for the same reason. I know it's a catch 22 - you wait for it to dip down and it will go on a rally. But with MFI, you usually have about 10 stocks to pick from for purchase - so I think this year I am going to try to be more patient with purchases and buy lower.