Quick post as I am watching my Hoosiers play the #2 Badgers.
More HW Headlines
Headwaters' Head Stays Above Water: Fool by Numbers
Headwaters' Slow and Steady Course
MF also has bad puns in their headlines! But if you read the article, they really think HW is a good buy here. I hope so, because I have HW out the wazoo between my MFI & sidecar.
FTO Gets Added to S&P 400
Always good news as I have seen from MTEX and VPHM recently (Standard & Poor's Announces Changes to U.S. Indices). Hopefully I'll get the standard 5% bump.
PONR Bounces Back
The 6% hit PONR took for announcing expansion on Tuesday was erased as I guess the markets liked the proposal. Fickle markets!
ALDA in Sidecar Looking Good
That little study I did last week might translate into short term green. I missed VCI, but did buy a pretty good chunk of ALDA last week. It has moved up ove a dollar this week on heavy (for ALDA) volume. Woo-hoo!
Back to my Hoosiers: 40-40.
Wednesday, January 31, 2007
Tuesday, January 30, 2007
The Market Giveth and the Market Taketh
wow, I was so giddy yesterday as I was finally starting to get some separation between my portfolio and the benchmark Russell 3000. Well I gave virtually all of it back today. Sigh
HW announced their earnings. I love the variety of headlines:
Headwaters Incorporated Announces Results for Fiscal 2007 First Quarter
Headwaters profit falls 40% amid weak housing market
InPlay: Headwaters beats by $0.05; reaffirms FY07 gudiance
Headwaters 1Q Earnings Fall Sharply
Headwaters Reiterates Earnings Guidance
UPDATE - TABLE-Headwaters Q1 earnings fall, backs 2007 view
They seemed ok to me, the market had already priced in bad news. The re-affirmed 2007 eps. And of course they then tanked at the opening bell. This is a much hated stock. The good news is that they battled back and finished up one or two cents.
PONR was my big loser. They announced that during 2007 they will be expanding capcity at a plant which will cost about 150m (Pioneer Announces the Expansion of its Chlor-Alkali Plant in St. Gabriel, Louisiana). I guess the market thinks it is a bad use of their money.
Then pretty funny, I was going to buy VCI today. I had an order to buy it at $14.42... but I guess my blog is a market mover as it started at $14.53 and never looked back, going up 5.5%.
Finally, I have posted a graph that compares the performance of each of my monthly MFI tracking portfolios with the benchmark Russell 3000. As you can see, of the 11 months, MFI is ahead in 8. Pretty good. JG said that over the long haul, MFI just wins 7 of 12 months. Of course, no stunning months. Then I do have my portfolio on far right. I think if you zoom to 1000% you can see that I am ahead by an angstrom (I think that is the correct physics term).
HW announced their earnings. I love the variety of headlines:
Headwaters Incorporated Announces Results for Fiscal 2007 First Quarter
Headwaters profit falls 40% amid weak housing market
InPlay: Headwaters beats by $0.05; reaffirms FY07 gudiance
Headwaters 1Q Earnings Fall Sharply
Headwaters Reiterates Earnings Guidance
UPDATE - TABLE-Headwaters Q1 earnings fall, backs 2007 view
They seemed ok to me, the market had already priced in bad news. The re-affirmed 2007 eps. And of course they then tanked at the opening bell. This is a much hated stock. The good news is that they battled back and finished up one or two cents.
PONR was my big loser. They announced that during 2007 they will be expanding capcity at a plant which will cost about 150m (Pioneer Announces the Expansion of its Chlor-Alkali Plant in St. Gabriel, Louisiana). I guess the market thinks it is a bad use of their money.
Then pretty funny, I was going to buy VCI today. I had an order to buy it at $14.42... but I guess my blog is a market mover as it started at $14.53 and never looked back, going up 5.5%.
Finally, I have posted a graph that compares the performance of each of my monthly MFI tracking portfolios with the benchmark Russell 3000. As you can see, of the 11 months, MFI is ahead in 8. Pretty good. JG said that over the long haul, MFI just wins 7 of 12 months. Of course, no stunning months. Then I do have my portfolio on far right. I think if you zoom to 1000% you can see that I am ahead by an angstrom (I think that is the correct physics term).
Monday, January 29, 2007
1st Anniversary Manuevers
Heading into February. I've been giving a lot of thought to what to do. I will likely be selling six stocks (MSTR, UST, ELX, TBL, MGLN & ANF). I will "top-off" PTEN, HW & PACR and then I should have $ for about three or four stocks (I am increasing my $ per stock in 2007). My short list of stocks to buy includes WCC, TTMI & VCI.
MSTR was interesting to watch this morning post their earings from Friday evening. In Pre-Dawn trading, the price was skyrocketing up about 4% at about $130. But as soon as the real market opened, the price dropped about 3% to $121. What happened? I was a bit flummoxed, not to mentioned disappointed. I think the answer can be gathered by looking at the prices run-up prior to earnings. MSTR was up from $114 to $126 since the start of the year. I think that implies that people were betting on spectacular earnings. While still good, they were not spectacular. Thus the stock sold off today.
Despite the MSTR mis-step, I had a great day today, up over 0.6% while the Russell 3000 was just barely better than flat. We'll see if we can't get a little separation this week with my magenta line.
I did update all my tracking portfolios today. I'll see if I can't publish a graph this weekend. Basically, while MFI has not been stomping the Russell 3000 and Russell 2000 Value indices, it has been beating them steadily. And to be honest, if I can beat market indices by 2 or 3 points a year with a $20 book, I don't really have much to complain about.
Trying to Get my Attention?
WSTL was a stock I briefly profiled (meaning about 10 words) in my blog a week or two ago. I thought it was very ho-hum and had no interest. Well, they had their earnings the other day and have fallen by 25%. Now perhaps that makes them a "buy" per my recent study... perhaps they did that like a child behaving badly to get a father's attention. I suspect their poor quarter and poor guidance will take them off the MFI lists.
MSTR was interesting to watch this morning post their earings from Friday evening. In Pre-Dawn trading, the price was skyrocketing up about 4% at about $130. But as soon as the real market opened, the price dropped about 3% to $121. What happened? I was a bit flummoxed, not to mentioned disappointed. I think the answer can be gathered by looking at the prices run-up prior to earnings. MSTR was up from $114 to $126 since the start of the year. I think that implies that people were betting on spectacular earnings. While still good, they were not spectacular. Thus the stock sold off today.
Despite the MSTR mis-step, I had a great day today, up over 0.6% while the Russell 3000 was just barely better than flat. We'll see if we can't get a little separation this week with my magenta line.
I did update all my tracking portfolios today. I'll see if I can't publish a graph this weekend. Basically, while MFI has not been stomping the Russell 3000 and Russell 2000 Value indices, it has been beating them steadily. And to be honest, if I can beat market indices by 2 or 3 points a year with a $20 book, I don't really have much to complain about.
Trying to Get my Attention?
WSTL was a stock I briefly profiled (meaning about 10 words) in my blog a week or two ago. I thought it was very ho-hum and had no interest. Well, they had their earnings the other day and have fallen by 25%. Now perhaps that makes them a "buy" per my recent study... perhaps they did that like a child behaving badly to get a father's attention. I suspect their poor quarter and poor guidance will take them off the MFI lists.
Saturday, January 27, 2007
David Vs Goliath
I looked at my 276 MFI stocks purchased between Jan and June of 2006 and sorted them by market cap at time of purchase. The median was almost exactly $1b. Much to my surprise, the large caps trounced the small caps 16% to 8%. Below I list all the stocks in ascending order. Small caps are on the left and large caps on the right:
| Stock | Initial | Current | Gain | Stock | Initial | Current | Gain |
| ford | $11.30 | $4.25 | -62% | ovti | $30.71 | $11.71 | -62% |
| FORD | $9.49 | $4.35 | -54% | VCI | $29.52 | $14.62 | -50% |
| alda | $31.97 | $15.25 | -52% | HW | $38.46 | $22.59 | -41% |
| ALDA | $31.73 | $15.25 | -52% | ANPI | $14.88 | $8.82 | -41% |
| ptsc.ob | $0.97 | $0.51 | -47% | FDG | $31.94 | $21.62 | -32% |
| CALL | $4.71 | $2.61 | -45% | FDG | $30.71 | $21.62 | -30% |
| play | $23.47 | $13.47 | -43% | PTEN | $31.50 | $23.21 | -26% |
| drco | $14.93 | $8.60 | -42% | ceco | $36.54 | $27.44 | -25% |
| CATT | $14.51 | $8.81 | -39% | ELNK | $9.36 | $7.28 | -22% |
| ahci | $4.66 | $2.88 | -38% | BVF | $26.67 | $20.77 | -22% |
| PLAY | $21.75 | $13.47 | -38% | CECO | $33.87 | $27.44 | -19% |
| camp | $11.75 | $7.84 | -33% | LPX | $27.56 | $22.60 | -18% |
| WON | $10.26 | $6.85 | -33% | TBL | $35.30 | $29.07 | -18% |
| slnk | $12.70 | $8.49 | -33% | lpx | $27.31 | $22.60 | -17% |
| call | $4.49 | $3.05 | -32% | CECO | $32.59 | $27.44 | -16% |
| HNR | $14.04 | $9.85 | -30% | TBL | $33.99 | $29.07 | -14% |
| ctt | $3.31 | $2.34 | -29% | MOT | $21.49 | $18.38 | -14% |
| HNR | $13.81 | $9.85 | -29% | nx | $44.51 | $38.17 | -14% |
| LINC | $16.45 | $11.86 | -28% | BVF | $24.19 | $20.77 | -14% |
| PTEC | $6.34 | $4.63 | -27% | CECO | $31.62 | $27.44 | -13% |
| JAKK | $26.76 | $19.62 | -27% | DLX | $29.62 | $26.21 | -12% |
| jakk | $26.18 | $19.62 | -25% | FTO | $30.03 | $26.71 | -11% |
| AHCI | $3.82 | $2.88 | -25% | KG | $17.95 | $16.20 | -10% |
| rhb | $19.01 | $14.49 | -24% | FTO | $29.12 | $26.71 | -8% |
| RAIL | $71.68 | $55.19 | -23% | KG | $19.22 | $17.74 | -8% |
| CONN | $29.76 | $23.27 | -22% | endp | $32.40 | $30.15 | -7% |
| WON | $8.74 | $6.85 | -22% | NX | $40.93 | $38.17 | -7% |
| ODSY | $16.64 | $13.34 | -20% | FCX | $62.39 | $58.49 | -6% |
| CONN | $28.92 | $23.27 | -20% | PII | $49.57 | $46.86 | -5% |
| ORCT | $12.63 | $10.42 | -17% | HRB | $24.22 | $22.95 | -5% |
| bld | $6.05 | $5.04 | -17% | HLF | $34.83 | $33.19 | -5% |
| insp | $27.56 | $23.09 | -16% | FTO | $27.91 | $26.71 | -4% |
| rail | $65.12 | $55.19 | -15% | KG | $18.15 | $17.74 | -2% |
| MEDQ.PK | $14.01 | $12.00 | -14% | BDK | $84.13 | $82.23 | -2% |
| MEDQ.PK | $14.00 | $12.00 | -14% | hlf | $33.87 | $33.19 | -2% |
| bbsi | $26.14 | $22.54 | -14% | DGX | $52.42 | $51.44 | -2% |
| RAIL | $63.69 | $55.19 | -13% | gci | $58.44 | $57.57 | -1% |
| WON | $7.88 | $6.85 | -13% | DELL | $24.02 | $23.73 | -1% |
| ELNK | $8.33 | $7.28 | -13% | HRB | $24.72 | $24.48 | -1% |
| PRAI | $26.97 | $23.61 | -12% | HHS | $28.53 | $28.29 | -1% |
| MEDQ.PK | $13.70 | $12.00 | -12% | mgln | $40.63 | $40.48 | -0% |
| debs | $30.54 | $27.32 | -11% | KG | $17.78 | $17.74 | -0% |
| EGY | $7.06 | $6.39 | -9% | ELX | $17.51 | $17.48 | -0% |
| JAKK | $21.53 | $19.62 | -9% | HEW | $26.99 | $27.00 | 0% |
| RAIL | $60.26 | $55.19 | -8% | KG | $17.58 | $17.74 | 1% |
| hnr | $10.68 | $9.85 | -8% | ENDP | $29.80 | $30.15 | 1% |
| DEBS | $29.50 | $27.32 | -7% | INTC | $20.29 | $20.53 | 1% |
| talk | $8.73 | $8.10 | -7% | TBL | $28.62 | $29.07 | 2% |
| mtex | $16.33 | $15.26 | -7% | MAS | $30.31 | $30.90 | 2% |
| gvhr | $23.13 | $21.62 | -7% | kg | $17.40 | $17.74 | 2% |
| DEBS | $28.99 | $27.32 | -6% | GPS | $18.50 | $19.04 | 3% |
| nobh | $24.53 | $23.20 | -5% | nus | $17.42 | $17.93 | 3% |
| ponr | $30.69 | $29.77 | -3% | svm | $12.64 | $13.03 | 3% |
| MTEX | $15.70 | $15.26 | -3% | GIB | $6.98 | $7.20 | 3% |
| ULCM | $9.38 | $9.27 | -1% | fcx | $56.65 | $58.49 | 3% |
| UNTD | $13.72 | $13.62 | -1% | PER | $15.44 | $16.11 | 4% |
| wins | $6.37 | $6.42 | 1% | lii | $28.62 | $29.88 | 4% |
| char.pk | $5.75 | $5.84 | 2% | LNCR | $38.18 | $40.02 | 5% |
| ULCM | $9.08 | $9.27 | 2% | intc | $19.51 | $20.53 | 5% |
| gisx | $18.18 | $18.94 | 4% | ksws | $29.74 | $31.41 | 6% |
| intx | $11.15 | $11.63 | 4% | liz | $40.83 | $43.32 | 6% |
| pbh | $12.30 | $13.02 | 6% | csgs | $22.93 | $24.80 | 8% |
| JAKK | $19.79 | $21.20 | 7% | cdwc | $59.51 | $64.58 | 9% |
| ELOS | $22.97 | $24.64 | 7% | THO | $42.05 | $45.71 | 9% |
| cvgi | $18.67 | $20.08 | 8% | EFX | $36.78 | $40.05 | 9% |
| VTRU | $41.86 | $45.16 | 8% | SVM | $11.96 | $13.03 | 9% |
| KSWS | $29.00 | $31.41 | 8% | MMM | $72.04 | $78.69 | 9% |
| VTRU | $34.04 | $36.90 | 8% | kci | $41.00 | $44.93 | 10% |
| anik | $11.79 | $12.83 | 9% | CLE | $31.30 | $34.66 | 11% |
| rimg | $21.60 | $23.75 | 10% | DPZ | $25.80 | $28.61 | 11% |
| WINS | $5.82 | $6.42 | 10% | hrb | $21.83 | $24.48 | 12% |
| pgi | $8.17 | $9.03 | 11% | NUS | $15.79 | $17.93 | 14% |
| MTEX | $13.76 | $15.26 | 11% | CDWC | $56.60 | $64.58 | 14% |
| VALU | $41.58 | $46.26 | 11% | BBBY | $35.55 | $40.70 | 14% |
| VALU | $41.11 | $46.26 | 13% | SWK | $48.43 | $55.57 | 15% |
| KFY | $20.50 | $23.07 | 13% | WSTC | $42.13 | $48.75 | 16% |
| INTX | $10.32 | $11.63 | 13% | FCX | $49.74 | $58.49 | 18% |
| UNTD | $12.29 | $13.92 | 13% | CLF | $44.64 | $52.52 | 18% |
| KSWS | $27.73 | $31.41 | 13% | DLX | $24.55 | $28.95 | 18% |
| amed | $26.65 | $30.34 | 14% | JH | $42.44 | $50.15 | 18% |
| chke | $37.80 | $43.08 | 14% | GIS | $47.67 | $56.55 | 19% |
| SYNA | $26.12 | $29.90 | 14% | mstr | $105.76 | $125.94 | 19% |
| KFY | $20.12 | $23.07 | 15% | KCI | $37.69 | $44.93 | 19% |
| AGYS | $16.41 | $18.83 | 15% | AVP | $27.95 | $33.53 | 20% |
| KFY | $20.02 | $23.07 | 15% | nue | $51.10 | $61.48 | 20% |
| ANIK | $11.53 | $13.29 | 15% | CHKP | $19.39 | $23.38 | 21% |
| GMR | $31.40 | $36.30 | 16% | CHKP | $19.30 | $23.38 | 21% |
| SYNA | $23.45 | $27.13 | 16% | mrx | $31.67 | $38.52 | 22% |
| kfy | $19.91 | $23.07 | 16% | ANF | $64.54 | $78.92 | 22% |
| VTRU | $38.95 | $45.16 | 16% | CLE | $28.21 | $34.66 | 23% |
| PPD | $33.26 | $38.63 | 16% | COG | $49.87 | $62.34 | 25% |
| PGI | $7.76 | $9.03 | 16% | AZO | $99.30 | $124.75 | 26% |
| CHKE | $36.64 | $43.08 | 18% | FTO | $21.24 | $26.71 | 26% |
| KFY | $19.33 | $22.77 | 18% | CHKP | $18.50 | $23.38 | 26% |
| isns | $11.98 | $14.26 | 19% | MRX | $29.91 | $38.52 | 29% |
| KSWS | $26.25 | $31.41 | 20% | HOC | $41.53 | $53.62 | 29% |
| MTEX | $12.51 | $15.03 | 20% | NSS | $49.92 | $65.00 | 30% |
| pwei | $27.31 | $33.03 | 21% | DLX | $21.92 | $28.95 | 32% |
| cmtl | $28.91 | $35.00 | 21% | MGLN | $32.21 | $42.86 | 33% |
| nath | $12.50 | $15.21 | 22% | HOC | $39.79 | $53.62 | 35% |
| ANIK | $10.52 | $12.83 | 22% | has | $20.86 | $28.26 | 35% |
| HSII | $35.32 | $43.63 | 24% | VFC | $53.71 | $74.00 | 38% |
| GBE | $9.25 | $11.43 | 24% | NSS | $47.12 | $65.00 | 38% |
| syna | $21.95 | $27.13 | 24% | mat | $17.36 | $23.96 | 38% |
| ivii | $10.88 | $13.50 | 24% | DLX | $20.97 | $28.95 | 38% |
| ELOS | $19.52 | $24.64 | 26% | LXK | $48.22 | $67.31 | 40% |
| ISSC | $13.17 | $16.65 | 26% | RL | $56.25 | $78.80 | 40% |
| CMTL | $27.57 | $35.00 | 27% | MVL | $20.05 | $28.11 | 40% |
| IVII | $10.21 | $13.00 | 27% | mvl | $20.05 | $28.11 | 40% |
| JH | $38.83 | $50.15 | 29% | MVL | $19.97 | $28.11 | 41% |
| CHKE | $32.87 | $42.82 | 30% | UST | $41.18 | $58.00 | 41% |
| noof | $7.29 | $9.50 | 30% | KMG | $50.00 | $70.47 | 41% |
| itwo | $17.52 | $22.95 | 31% | HAS | $20.04 | $28.26 | 41% |
| ardna | $91.91 | $120.70 | 31% | MAT | $16.80 | $23.96 | 43% |
| HSII | $32.99 | $43.63 | 32% | HAS | $19.78 | $28.26 | 43% |
| FTD | $13.13 | $17.41 | 33% | UST | $40.24 | $58.00 | 44% |
| PLAY | $10.05 | $13.47 | 34% | MVL | $19.10 | $28.11 | 47% |
| VPHM | $11.83 | $16.07 | 36% | PCU | $40.63 | $59.91 | 47% |
| XJT | $5.87 | $7.98 | 36% | AEOS | $21.61 | $31.94 | 48% |
| USNA | $38.01 | $52.79 | 39% | AEOS | $21.60 | $31.94 | 48% |
| moss | $5.96 | $8.50 | 43% | lxk | $45.04 | $67.31 | 49% |
| aplx | $7.54 | $10.85 | 44% | HAS | $18.45 | $28.26 | 53% |
| issc | $13.22 | $19.03 | 44% | NUE | $39.74 | $61.48 | 55% |
| EGY | $4.53 | $6.53 | 44% | KOSP | $50.21 | $78.00 | 55% |
| ntgr | $19.35 | $27.93 | 44% | pcu | $38.55 | $59.91 | 55% |
| deck | $39.71 | $57.74 | 45% | UST | $36.27 | $58.00 | 60% |
| NOOF | $6.59 | $9.98 | 51% | PCU | $37.40 | $59.91 | 60% |
| DECK | $37.76 | $57.74 | 53% | MVL | $16.69 | $26.75 | 60% |
| DECK | $35.46 | $57.74 | 63% | AEOS | $19.84 | $31.94 | 61% |
| VPHM | $9.73 | $16.07 | 65% | kosp | $48.00 | $78.00 | 63% |
| VPHM | $9.54 | $16.07 | 68% | KOSP | $47.46 | $78.00 | 64% |
| CUTR | $16.49 | $28.10 | 70% | tpx | $14.00 | $23.38 | 67% |
| ftd | $9.60 | $17.41 | 81% | aeos | $18.90 | $31.94 | 69% |
| FTD | $9.54 | $18.05 | 89% | KOSP | $44.78 | $78.00 | 74% |
| GSTL | $15.89 | $30.44 | 92% | MVL | $15.98 | $28.11 | 76% |
| pncl | $7.08 | $17.31 | 144% | PD | $70.56 | $124.27 | 76% |
| PNCL | $6.84 | $17.31 | 153% | AEOS | $17.03 | $31.94 | 88% |
| AEOS | $15.90 | $32.32 | 103% |
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