Wednesday, January 04, 2017

Rally Since End of October

Trump Rally - Is Small = Great?

The acceleration of MFI results since Trump became PEOTUS has been staggering.  I believe it (to steal from Alexander Hamilton) caused "the world to turn upside down". Stocks that were out-of-favor, suddenly became in favor. And frankly, that usually defines at least 50% of MFI universe.

So I thought readers might be interested in a few stats since end of October.  It was not too much effort.  So first here is a listing of tranches (just for those with 2.6% dividend or greater), showing how they were valued at 10/28/16 and where they are today:


Tranche Date 28-Oct 4-Jan Change
11/27/2015 5.4% 12.5% 7.1%
12/31/2015 11.3% 17.3% 6.0%
1/29/2016 16.6% 23.0% 6.4%
2/26/2016 11.9% 26.8% 15.0%
3/24/2016 13.9% 30.7% 16.7%
4/22/2016 4.8% 17.5% 12.7%
5/27/2016 8.9% 18.0% 9.1%
6/30/2016 5.4% 13.2% 7.8%
7/29/2016 -1.9% 6.8% 8.8%
8/26/2016 -1.5% 10.3% 11.8%
9/30/2016 -0.5% 16.6% 17.1%
10/28/2016 0.0% 12.2% 12.3%
11/27/2016 3.4%
12/30/2016 1.6%


Obviously tranches started after 10/28 are up what they are up.  But the 10 previous tranches are up an average of 11.1% since 10/28.  

Now let us get more specific (I think I can do this).  Let us look at the 10/28 tranche by stock and starting 11/7 (note this is now all 50 stocks).


Stock  Initial Price   End Price  Percent Change  Mkt Cap 
MDCA                3.15             6.70 112.7%            316
NSR              22.10           33.25 50.5%         1,364
UIS              10.40           15.00 44.2%            751
BBSI              45.24           64.38 42.3%            426
VEC              17.07           24.00 40.6%            248
TRNC              10.23           13.68 33.7%            469
HSII              18.10           24.20 33.7%            395
AGTC                7.20             9.55 32.6%            179
SPOK              16.39           21.60 31.8%            375
AGX              55.35           70.25 26.9%            997
IDCC              71.80           90.65 26.3%         2,773
BPT              19.95           24.90 24.8%            457
ICON                8.00             9.92 24.0%            545
MCFT              11.91           14.64 22.9%            252
GME              20.93           25.37 21.2%         2,680
UTHR            119.55         143.99 20.4%         6,117
DLX              60.01           71.90 19.8%         3,394
AWRE                5.15             6.15 19.4%            132
MPAA              23.47           27.91 18.9%            492
MBUU              16.04           19.07 18.9%            322
GHC            445.85         523.60 17.4%         2,727
TGNA              18.46           21.54 16.7%         4,792
RPXC                9.58           11.03 15.1%            531
IRMD                9.75           11.20 14.9%            115
NHTC              21.38           24.45 14.4%            298
MSGN              19.15           21.85 14.1%         1,494
DHX                5.50             6.25 13.6%            331
BKE              20.65           23.40 13.3%         1,247
MCK            134.51         147.43 9.6%       32,334
PBI              14.51           15.86 9.3%         2,759
AAPL            110.41         116.15 5.2%     596,530
HRB              21.81           22.91 5.0%         5,254
CA              31.25           32.29 3.3%       13,130
SYNT              19.40           19.92 2.7%         1,696
TDC              27.11           27.58 1.7%         3,547
USNA              61.20           62.20 1.6%         1,539
SSNI              12.90           13.05 1.2%            761
GILD              73.53           74.16 0.9%       99,732
AMCX              53.32           53.55 0.4%         3,845
MYGN              16.92           16.93 0.1%         1,194
HPQ              14.92           14.85 -0.5%       25,882
CSCO              30.94           30.54 -1.3%     150,330
ESRX              70.38           69.40 -1.4%       48,407
FPRX              50.00           48.60 -2.8%         1,732
VIAB              37.35           35.90 -3.9%       14,936
ACHI                2.40             2.29 -4.6%            240
RGR              63.35           53.45 -15.6%            996
SWHC              27.85           21.08 -24.3%         1,338
AVID                6.20             4.63 -25.3%            176
PDLI                3.20             2.23 -30.3%            420

You know, that is a very interesting list. The top 10 names are amongst the smallest market caps. Only AGX and NSR were in the largest 1/2 of stocks, and both of those just barely.  Let me try this for another group of stocks, say end of June. Note that "Rank" is simply a stat showing where the market cap ranks. So 1 is APPL as they are largest market cap and 50 is CHKE as the smallest. Anything over 25 is in the smallest 1/2.


Stock  Initial Price   End Price  Percent Change  Mkt Cap  Rank
NSR              22.10           33.25 50.5%         1,307 19
WNC              10.93           16.21 48.3%            824 27
ENTA              23.34           34.35 47.2%            429 34
KFY              20.66           29.54 43.0%         1,200 21
BBSI              45.24           64.38 42.3%            287 42
VEC              17.07           24.00 40.6%            312 40
STRA              58.60           81.91 39.8%            557 31
HSII              18.10           24.20 33.7%            316 38
NATH              49.45           63.60 28.6%            187 48
AGX              55.35           70.25 26.9%            616 30
IDCC              71.80           90.65 26.3%         1,910 17
AMAG              27.00           33.95 25.7%            850 26
OUTR              41.52           52.00 25.2%            737 28
BPT              19.95           24.90 24.8%            389 35
ICON                8.00             9.92 24.0%            334 36
MCFT              11.91           14.64 22.9%            207 47
WILN                1.40             1.72 22.8%            306 41
GME              20.93           25.37 21.2%         2,814 15
UTHR            119.55         143.99 20.4%         5,236 7
DLX              60.01           71.90 19.8%         3,250 13
MBUU              16.04           19.07 18.9%            222 45
CALM              37.30           43.75 17.3%         2,164 16
RPXC                9.58           11.03 15.1%            475 33
CPLA              75.45           86.80 15.0%            623 29
IILG              15.79           18.10 14.6%            945 25
CHKE                9.40           10.75 14.4%            101 50
NHTC              21.38           24.45 14.4%            314 39
MSGN              19.15           21.85 14.1%         1,137 23
DHX                5.50             6.25 13.6%            326 37
BKE              20.65           23.40 13.3%         1,262 20
PBI              14.51           15.86 9.3%         3,398 11
AAPL            110.41         116.15 5.2%     525,328 1
HRB              21.81           22.91 5.0%         5,156 8
BLBD              14.90           15.50 4.0%            250 43
SYNT              19.40           19.92 2.7%         3,777 9
TDC              27.11           27.58 1.7%         3,267 12
USNA              61.20           62.20 1.6%         1,339 18
BRCD              12.29           12.47 1.5%         3,694 10
GILD              73.53           74.16 0.9%     114,391 3
UNTD              11.00           11.00 0.0%            164 49
HPQ              14.92           14.85 -0.5%       21,756 4
CSCO              30.94           30.54 -1.3%     144,979 2
FPRX              50.00           48.60 -2.8%         1,186 22
VIAB              37.35           35.90 -3.9%       16,454 5
ACHI                2.40             2.29 -4.6%            221 46
FIT                8.69             7.94 -8.6%         2,983 14
KORS              50.30           43.08 -14.4%         9,041 6
INSY              11.99             9.86 -17.8%         1,015 24
AVID                6.20             4.63 -25.3%            230 44
PDLI                3.20             2.23 -30.3%            529 32

We seem to have same thing going on. Smaller is better. Again,only 2 of top 10 are in largest 1/2. If we sort by market cap, we seethe 25 largest are up 8.8% on average whilst 25 smallest are up 19.5%.  That includes UNTD which was already bought.

2 comments:

J Nelson said...

Marshall, I'm guessing the smaller the cap the more focused the related company is focused on US domestic success and less affected by the soaring dollar and other potential negative effects of a potential trade war? Accordingly, an investment approach more focused on US small caps would seem to make sense for the next several months.

What do you think?

Marsh_Gerda said...

I agree 100%. I expected that, I was just surprised at the magnitude.