Another month/year has flown by. And so it is time to look at another monthly tracking portfolio as we reach the end of January 2017. As my faithful readers know, I have been tracking the Magic Formula Stocks as described by Joel Greenblatt in The Little Book That Beats the Stock Market since January 2006. Every month I take the top 50 stocks over $100m market cap from his website and track how that portfolio of stocks fares versus the Russell 3000 for the next 12 months. It has been an uphill struggle as the tracking portfolios have under-performed, driven in part by Chinese reverse merger fiascos, for-profit education stocks and home health care stocks all being proverbial albatrosses.
Onward
Fearless readers will recall we had a 29 month "losing streak".. Then we had a 13 month winning streak. This month, MFI (wait for it) won by 80 basis points, our second straight scant win.. 18 of the 19 had recently lost, but concurrent with the Trump rally, MFI stocks saw a resurgence these past 2 months. Now all but two open MFI tracking portfolios are leading, in total by an average of 4.3 points. Here are the 50 stocks in descending performance order:
| Stock | Initial Price | End Price | Percent Change | 52 week low | Mkt Cap |
| AGX | 29.59 | 74.50 | 151.7% | 28.28 | 447 |
| IDCC | 44.39 | 93.40 | 110.4% | 41.36 | 1,601 |
| CPLA | 42.78 | 85.40 | 99.6% | 40.50 | 526 |
| BLBD | 9.80 | 16.95 | 73.0% | 7.61 | 205 |
| IILG | 11.50 | 18.74 | 63.0% | 10.61 | 677 |
| BBSI | 38.28 | 61.56 | 60.8% | 22.55 | 280 |
| BRCD | 7.81 | 12.48 | 59.7% | 7.58 | 3,303 |
| OUTR | 32.66 | 52.00 | 59.2% | 24.81 | 583 |
| HPQ | 9.35 | 14.80 | 58.3% | 8.91 | 17,517 |
| MCFT | 9.16 | 14.29 | 56.0% | 10.25 | 227 |
| STRA | 53.39 | 81.82 | 53.2% | 42.39 | 589 |
| CLCT | 14.39 | 20.90 | 45.2% | 13.93 | 135 |
| TIVO | 7.98 | 11.34 | 42.1% | 15.06 | 781 |
| IQNT | 16.69 | 22.90 | 37.2% | 14.56 | 580 |
| BPT | 23.98 | 32.80 | 36.8% | 11.29 | 573 |
| CSCO | 22.97 | 30.98 | 34.9% | 22.46 | 120,901 |
| NSR | 24.58 | 33.10 | 34.7% | 20.00 | 1,312 |
| VC | 66.88 | 88.75 | 32.7% | 59.30 | 2,709 |
| UTHR | 123.18 | 162.43 | 31.9% | 97.52 | 5,913 |
| NHTC | 19.48 | 25.29 | 29.8% | 19.06 | 244 |
| ENTA | 25.70 | 33.18 | 29.1% | 20.39 | 481 |
| FLR | 44.16 | 56.63 | 28.2% | 41.06 | 6,384 |
| AAPL | 95.22 | 121.95 | 28.1% | 89.47 | 539,700 |
| MSGN | 17.49 | 22.35 | 27.8% | 14.73 | 1,307 |
| STRZA | 28.43 | 35.50 | 24.9% | 20.33 | 2,892 |
| QCOM | 43.77 | 54.24 | 23.9% | 42.24 | 67,783 |
| PETS | 17.31 | 21.00 | 21.3% | 15.73 | 366 |
| TDC | 24.34 | 29.12 | 19.6% | 22.10 | 3,259 |
| DEPO | 15.34 | 17.96 | 17.1% | 12.25 | 928 |
| VEC | 19.76 | 22.96 | 16.2% | 12.50 | 209 |
| GHC | 481.01 | 516.65 | 7.4% | 440.55 | 2,832 |
| KORS | 39.90 | 41.53 | 4.1% | 39.62 | 7,478 |
| UNTD | 10.61 | 11.00 | 3.7% | 9.50 | 157 |
| AMAG | 22.91 | 23.60 | 3.0% | 17.92 | 795 |
| KING | 17.93 | 18.00 | 0.4% | 12.00 | 5,656 |
| VDSI | 15.50 | 15.35 | -1.0% | 12.35 | 617 |
| GME | 24.87 | 24.31 | -2.3% | 20.10 | 2,749 |
| RPXC | 11.58 | 11.11 | -4.1% | 8.60 | 653 |
| VIAB | 44.24 | 41.97 | -5.1% | 30.11 | 18,169 |
| PPC | 19.86 | 18.76 | -5.5% | 17.15 | 5,751 |
| GPRO | 11.45 | 10.07 | -12.1% | 8.54 | 1,740 |
| GILD | 81.12 | 71.26 | -12.2% | 69.78 | 120,267 |
| SCMP | 12.65 | 11.10 | -12.3% | 9.59 | 573 |
| PBI | 18.73 | 15.87 | -15.3% | 14.22 | 3,877 |
| CALM | 50.03 | 41.40 | -17.3% | 35.65 | 2,448 |
| BKE | 26.40 | 20.55 | -22.2% | 19.95 | 1,379 |
| LCI | 25.51 | 19.60 | -23.2% | 16.75 | 928 |
| PDLI | 3.05 | 2.25 | -26.1% | 1.93 | 514 |
| NLNK | 24.36 | 12.32 | -49.4% | 9.23 | 794 |
| FIT | 16.60 | 7.21 | -56.6% | 6.97 | 3,439 |
Definitely a few trends here. The For Profit Education space finally ended its death spiral. CPLA and STRA were decent. Quite a few buyouts, IQNT, KING, OUTR, NSRand TIVO. I have mentioned that a "Dogs of MFI" approach has shown some promise. PDLI BKE, PBI, SCMP and GILD are still on the list. It would take some courage to buy any of those - but I guess that is why they are called dogs.
Here is a listing of every portfolio I have tracked:
| Date | MFI | R3K | Lead |
| 1/6/2006 | 16.0% | 10.9% | 1 |
| 2/17/2006 | 21.2% | 14.6% | 1 |
| 3/29/2006 | 13.0% | 9.6% | 1 |
| 4/7/2006 | 10.3% | 12.1% | 0 |
| 5/12/2006 | 20.4% | 18.6% | 1 |
| 5/31/2006 | 29.2% | 23.3% | 1 |
| 6/30/2006 | 22.4% | 20.0% | 1 |
| 7/31/2006 | 19.7% | 17.3% | 1 |
| 8/31/2006 | 13.0% | 13.3% | 0 |
| 9/28/2006 | 12.7% | 14.6% | 0 |
| 10/27/2006 | 10.3% | 12.0% | 0 |
| 11/29/2006 | -0.3% | 4.8% | 0 |
| 12/28/2006 | -6.9% | 3.4% | 0 |
| 1/26/2007 | -10.2% | -6.6% | 0 |
| 2/27/2007 | -3.7% | -1.0% | 0 |
| 3/26/2007 | -9.8% | -5.5% | 0 |
| 4/27/2007 | -10.9% | -5.0% | 0 |
| 5/29/2007 | -11.5% | -6.3% | 0 |
| 7/3/2007 | -30.0% | -15.6% | 0 |
| 7/30/2007 | -19.9% | -11.5% | 0 |
| 8/30/2007 | -12.5% | -8.7% | 0 |
| 9/27/2007 | -19.0% | -18.2% | 0 |
| 11/2/2007 | -40.4% | -34.3% | 0 |
| 11/28/2007 | -40.1% | -38.3% | 0 |
| 12/28/2007 | -36.3% | -40.0% | 1 |
| 1/25/2008 | -36.4% | -35.9% | 0 |
| 2/26/2008 | -51.7% | -41.5% | 0 |
| 3/24/2008 | -40.9% | -36.8% | 0 |
| 4/25/2008 | -25.6% | -31.0% | 1 |
| 5/28/2008 | -22.2% | -33.6% | 1 |
| 7/2/2008 | -11.7% | -25.3% | 1 |
| 7/29/2008 | -10.5% | -20.9% | 1 |
| 8/29/2008 | -13.8% | -17.9% | 1 |
| 9/26/2008 | -4.3% | -10.0% | 1 |
| 10/31/2008 | 18.7% | 13.9% | 1 |
| 11/26/2008 | 50.9% | 27.7% | 1 |
| 12/26/2008 | 48.9% | 32.3% | 1 |
| 1/23/2009 | 59.3% | 36.4% | 1 |
| 2/27/2009 | 92.8% | 55.6% | 1 |
| 3/27/2009 | 85.8% | 48.1% | 1 |
| 4/24/2009 | 69.7% | 45.8% | 1 |
| 5/29/2009 | 31.8% | 22.8% | 1 |
| 6/29/2009 | 21.3% | 24.0% | 0 |
| 7/29/2009 | 19.5% | 15.9% | 1 |
| 8/28/2009 | 7.4% | 8.8% | 0 |
| 9/25/2009 | 12.6% | 12.4% | 1 |
| 10/30/2009 | 22.7% | 18.3% | 1 |
| 11/27/2009 | 24.3% | 13.6% | 1 |
| 12/31/2009 | 23.7% | 18.1% | 1 |
| 1/22/2010 | 19.0% | 20.6% | 0 |
| 2/26/2010 | 18.6% | 23.6% | 0 |
| 3/25/2010 | 10.0% | 15.4% | 0 |
| 4/23/2010 | 7.1% | 11.4% | 0 |
| 5/28/2010 | 19.3% | 25.4% | 0 |
| 6/29/2010 | 16.7% | 25.7% | 0 |
| 7/29/2010 | 5.4% | 20.1% | 0 |
| 9/2/2010 | 7.3% | 10.1% | 0 |
| 9/24/2010 | -4.3% | 0.3% | 0 |
| 10/29/2010 | -2.9% | 10.4% | 0 |
| 11/26/2010 | -8.5% | 1.4% | 0 |
| 1/3/2011 | -11.4% | 0.1% | 0 |
| 1/28/2011 | -7.6% | 4.9% | 0 |
| 2/25/2011 | -5.5% | 5.0% | 0 |
| 3/24/2011 | -4.4% | 7.4% | 0 |
| 4/21/2011 | -16.0% | 3.2% | 0 |
| 5/27/2011 | -12.0% | -0.4% | 0 |
| 6/24/2011 | -9.5% | 5.0% | 0 |
| 7/29/2011 | -4.3% | 8.1% | 0 |
| 8/26/2011 | 12.0% | 21.6% | 0 |
| 9/30/2011 | 23.5% | 29.6% | 0 |
| 10/28/2011 | 0.4% | 11.5% | 0 |
| 11/25/2011 | 13.9% | 24.0% | 0 |
| 12/29/2011 | 9.9% | 15.9% | 0 |
| 1/27/2012 | 7.4% | 16.6% | 0 |
| 2/24/2012 | 7.8% | 13.3% | 0 |
| 3/23/2012 | 9.1% | 15.2% | 0 |
| 4/27/2012 | 10.5% | 15.3% | 0 |
| 5/25/2012 | 26.5% | 27.5% | 0 |
| 6/22/2012 | 26.1% | 24.6% | 1 |
| 7/27/2012 | 30.4% | 25.7% | 1 |
| 8/24/2012 | 26.0% | 19.8% | 1 |
| 9/28/2012 | 39.3% | 22.1% | 1 |
| 10/26/2012 | 48.3% | 28.9% | 1 |
| 11/23/2012 | 45.7% | 32.1% | 1 |
| 12/31/2012 | 52.3% | 33.0% | 1 |
| 1/25/2013 | 39.5% | 22.0% | 1 |
| 2/22/2013 | 46.5% | 26.4% | 1 |
| 3/28/2013 | 40.1% | 21.2% | 1 |
| 4/26/2013 | 35.0% | 20.5% | 1 |
| 5/24/2013 | 20.4% | 19.2% | 1 |
| 6/28/2013 | 26.9% | 24.1% | 1 |
| 7/29/2013 | 17.8% | 19.0% | 0 |
| 8/30/2013 | 17.5% | 24.6% | 0 |
| 9/27/2013 | 12.9% | 17.7% | 0 |
| 10/25/2013 | 11.8% | 15.4% | 0 |
| 11/29/2013 | 12.3% | 15.6% | 0 |
| 12/31/2013 | 12.7% | 11.9% | 1 |
| 1/31/2014 | 14.2% | 13.0% | 1 |
| 2/28/2014 | 15.4% | 13.9% | 1 |
| 3/28/2014 | 6.1% | 12.3% | 0 |
| 4/25/2014 | 8.6% | 15.8% | 0 |
| 5/30/2014 | 5.9% | 11.7% | 0 |
| 6/27/2014 | 2.5% | 9.2% | 0 |
| 7/25/2014 | 3.3% | 8.7% | 0 |
| 8/29/2014 | -2.2% | 1.0% | 0 |
| 9/26/2014 | -0.6% | -0.9% | 1 |
| 10/31/2014 | 4.3% | 4.4% | 0 |
| 11/28/2014 | -2.9% | 2.9% | 0 |
| 12/31/2014 | -9.3% | 0.3% | 0 |
| 1/30/2015 | -12.4% | -2.8% | 0 |
| 2/27/2015 | -19.0% | -7.3% | 0 |
| 3/27/2015 | -17.1% | -1.9% | 0 |
| 4/24/2015 | -15.4% | -0.8% | 0 |
| 5/29/2015 | -14.1% | 0.1% | 0 |
| 6/26/2015 | -8.7% | 0.4% | 0 |
| 7/30/2015 | 3.96% | 4.02% | 0 |
| 8/28/2015 | 5.6% | 10.2% | 0 |
| 9/25/2015 | 6.5% | 13.8% | 0 |
| 10/30/2015 | 2.0% | 4.0% | 0 |
| 11/27/2015 | 8.9% | 8.4% | 1 |
| 12/31/2015 | 13.7% | 12.6% | 1 |
| 1/29/2016 | 23.2% | 22.4% | 1 |
| 2/26/2016 | 29.0% | 21.5% | 1 |
| 3/24/2016 | 27.5% | 16.0% | 1 |
| 4/22/2016 | 15.1% | 12.2% | 1 |
| 5/27/2016 | 18.7% | 11.7% | 1 |
| 6/30/2016 | 17.7% | 11.4% | 1 |
| 7/29/2016 | 12.5% | 7.2% | 1 |
| 8/26/2016 | 11.9% | 7.1% | 1 |
| 9/30/2016 | 10.9% | 6.8% | 1 |
| 10/28/2016 | 12.3% | 9.2% | 1 |
| 11/25/2016 | 1.8% | 3.7% | 0 |
| 12/30/2016 | 0.4% | 2.4% | 0 |
Subsets
I also have tracked 3 subsets of the larger portfolios: (1) dividend stocks (those with a yield per Yahoo of at least 2.6%), (2) new stocks (those new to the tracking portfolios in past 12 months and Dogs. It is like the dogs of the Dow in that you take the worst five performing stocks from the prior year that renew or all those that dropped more that 29%. The dividend portfolio was solid, up about 22.7%. The Dogs portfolio was bad, up just 4.5%%. The New approach was mediocre, up 7.3%. Finally, I like to track cash as it is more "honest" than percentages as if you go up by 25% and then down by 25%, that is a different result than up by 5% then down by 5%. So I track what you would have today if you had spread $100,000 over the first twelve portfolios evenly. I think it is obvious why my formula approach is a function of dividend subset.
| Category | Value |
| Total | 200,563 |
| Total Russell 3K | 222,363 |
| New | 164,394 |
| Dogs | 241,677 |
| Dividend | 440,141 |
Ok, that is a wrap. Hope you find it useful. Off to set up a new portfolio.
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment