Countdown on February 2016

Countdown

My February 1st tranche has just a few weeks left to run.  It has been a struggle - although I guess +16.5% is not bad.  VEC and DEPO were both huge winners at one point. VEC was up 60% in August.  DEPO was up 60% in September.  I came so close to selling some DEPO calls around then, I think I actually placed an order.

PERI is the lead weight.  Doing the math, if you have one stock down 30%, it is tough to soar like an eagle.  I really liked them at the time. They had just had an acquisition and I felt the market was not valuing it correctly.  But they struggled to make money.  The "turnaround" has always been a couple quarters away.  That being said, PERI has moved up a lot (on % basis) of late.  It actually "broke a buck" at the end of October and is now $1.65.  So a 65% gain in 3 months.  Entry point is everything.

Here is the tranche:

2/1/2016	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
VEC	$19.64	$24.05	$0.00	22.5%	21.3%
QCOM	$45.18	$66.10	$2.07	50.9%	21.3%
PERI	$2.45	$1.65	$0.00	-32.7%	21.3%
DEPO	$15.34	$18.90	$0.00	23.2%	21.3%
TDC	$24.02	$28.47	$0.00	18.5%	21.3%
Totals				16.5%	21.3%

If I had just renewed my February 2015 tranche, I'd be on par with market (up 21%).  My rejects are about the same as picks (up 15%).  HPQ and BRCD are both up 55%, but LCI, CBI and VIAB are all down around 15%.

Looking Forward

With recent run-up in MFI stocks, I am struggling a bit to find value.

IDCC, LEA, SSNI, AKRX, GHC, WNC, ABBV, MYGN, KLAC and OMC,

A lot can still happen. Stay tuned.