Thursday, January 12, 2017

Countdown on February 2016


My February 1st tranche has just a few weeks left to run.  It has been a struggle - although I guess +16.5% is not bad.  VEC and DEPO were both huge winners at one point. VEC was up 60% in August.  DEPO was up 60% in September.  I came so close to selling some DEPO calls around then, I think I actually placed an order.

PERI is the lead weight.  Doing the math, if you have one stock down 30%, it is tough to soar like an eagle.  I really liked them at the time. They had just had an acquisition and I felt the market was not valuing it correctly.  But they struggled to make money.  The "turnaround" has always been a couple quarters away.  That being said, PERI has moved up a lot (on % basis) of late.  It actually "broke a buck" at the end of October and is now $1.65.  So a 65% gain in 3 months.  Entry point is everything.

Here is the tranche:

2/1/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 VEC  $19.64 $24.05 $0.00 22.5% 21.3%
 QCOM  $45.18 $66.10 $2.07 50.9% 21.3%
 PERI  $2.45 $1.65 $0.00 -32.7% 21.3%
 DEPO  $15.34 $18.90 $0.00 23.2% 21.3%
 TDC  $24.02 $28.47 $0.00 18.5% 21.3%
 Totals  16.5% 21.3%

If I had just renewed my February 2015 tranche, I'd be on par with market (up 21%).  My rejects are about the same as picks (up 15%).  HPQ and BRCD are both up 55%, but LCI, CBI and VIAB are all down around 15%.

Looking Forward

With recent run-up in MFI stocks, I am struggling a bit to find value.


A lot can still happen. Stay tuned.

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