Wow, things continue to go so well for my portfolio. I keep waiting for some proverbial shoe to drop. I am now up 12.7% on the year, which is 4.4% above the benchmark. Kind of firing on all cylinders. Also my newest tranche started this week and with 51 weeks to go,it is off to a nice start.
I do continue to hold a lot of cash and I do still have one hedge (SDS) in place. I am just not convinced that this market goes up without some hiccups. But I am a terrible market timer, as my 35 fearless readers know.
For the week I was up 1.4%. Here are some of the big winners:
- BRCD 5.9%
- WLDN 8.3%
- BKE +8.7% (!)
- GNW +9.8%
- VNCE +12.2%
- CPLA +4.8%
- TIME +5.9%
- MSGN +13.2%
MFI Micro
Ok, I know these tranches that I started last August do not exist any more. I bailed on them (though I did keep a few of the names). Amazingly, they were great. I should have stayed long and strong. Here is the 8/28 tranche, which would be coming up on one year:
| 8/28/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VNCE | $8.50 | $5.63 | $0.00 | -33.8% | -1.1% |
| ONE | $1.99 | $5.15 | $0.00 | 158.8% | -1.1% |
| TPUB | $11.60 | $15.82 | $0.18 | 37.9% | -1.1% |
| LQDT | $7.26 | $9.77 | $0.00 | 34.6% | -1.1% |
| PERI | $2.45 | $1.26 | $0.00 | -48.6% | -1.1% |
| Totals | 29.8% | -1.1% |
I know, very very good. I only made 3.6%. Sold too early! (the R3K number is wrong here, more like +10.5%. Then my December tranche:
| 12/15/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| MGIC | $5.38 | $7.80 | $0.09 | 46.7% | 7.1% |
| BSQR | $6.00 | $4.58 | $0.00 | -23.7% | 7.1% |
| SPCB | $4.52 | $3.64 | $0.00 | -19.5% | 7.1% |
| WLDN | $8.64 | $15.06 | $0.00 | 74.3% | 7.1% |
| MNDO | $2.58 | $2.23 | $0.27 | -3.2% | 7.1% |
| Totals | - | 14.9% | 7.1% |
Very good as well. Here I did keep the MGIC, SPCB and WLDN - so I have reaped these gains foe most part. Perhaps I should try this again, with more conviction!
MFI Select
Things are just working very well in this universe.
| Date | Differential | MFI Value | R3K Value |
| 12/1/2012 | -2.20% | 99,765 | 101,965 |
| 1/1/2013 | -1.78% | 102,798 | 104,575 |
| 2/1/2013 | -2.26% | 102,594 | 104,856 |
| 3/1/2013 | -2.23% | 102,881 | 105,114 |
| 4/1/2013 | -0.43% | 106,804 | 107,234 |
| 5/1/2013 | 2.00% | 110,423 | 108,423 |
| 6/1/2013 | 4.75% | 115,831 | 111,085 |
| 7/1/2013 | 4.29% | 114,888 | 110,597 |
| 8/1/2013 | 6.91% | 124,799 | 117,889 |
| 9/1/2013 | 10.46% | 124,536 | 114,079 |
| 10/1/2013 | 19.67% | 138,655 | 118,990 |
| 11/1/2013 | 19.75% | 143,514 | 123,764 |
| 12/1/2013 | 23.70% | 150,105 | 126,405 |
| 1/1/2014 | 26.63% | 157,138 | 130,503 |
| 2/1/2014 | 24.70% | 150,619 | 125,918 |
| 3/1/2014 | 25.66% | 158,116 | 132,458 |
| 4/1/2014 | 30.38% | 162,991 | 132,616 |
| 5/1/2014 | 29.65% | 162,428 | 132,779 |
| 6/1/2014 | 31.44% | 167,001 | 135,559 |
| 7/1/2014 | 39.23% | 177,971 | 138,740 |
| 8/1/2014 | 31.13% | 167,054 | 135,922 |
| 9/1/2014 | 35.90% | 177,792 | 141,892 |
| 10/1/2014 | 29.38% | 168,321 | 138,944 |
| 11/1/2014 | 26.14% | 168,810 | 142,666 |
| 12/1/2014 | 30.22% | 176,420 | 146,198 |
| 1/1/2015 | 28.17% | 174,306 | 146,140 |
| 2/1/2015 | 20.63% | 162,833 | 142,201 |
| 3/1/2015 | 25.15% | 175,476 | 150,324 |
| 4/1/2015 | 29.95% | 178,565 | 148,612 |
| 5/1/2015 | 37.31% | 186,655 | 149,348 |
| 6/1/2015 | 51.53% | 202,897 | 151,371 |
| 7/1/2015 | 62.69% | 211,437 | 148,743 |
| 8/1/2015 | 40.75% | 192,117 | 151,369 |
| 9/1/2015 | 36.41% | 178,603 | 142,195 |
| 10/1/2015 | 43.12% | 181,175 | 138,052 |
| 11/1/2015 | 69.02% | 217,959 | 148,936 |
| 12/1/2015 | 73.49% | 223,435 | 149,946 |
| 1/1/2016 | 63.33% | 209,514 | 146,186 |
| 2/1/2016 | 49.49% | 187,428 | 137,934 |
| 3/1/2016 | 56.48% | 194,415 | 137,934 |
| 4/1/2016 | 47.34% | 195,770 | 148,430 |
| 5/1/2016 | 46.38% | 194,301 | 147,923 |
| 6/1/2016 | 51.44% | 201,999 | 150,558 |
| 7/1/2016 | 50.41% | 201,092 | 150,680 |
| 8/1/2016 | 52.72% | 207,223 | 154,501 |
| Current | 61.70% | 217,503 | 155,798 |
While the 61.7 percentage point lead is not my highest ever, it is strong.
| Category/Tranche | August | November | February | May | Total |
| Initial Investment | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 100,000 |
| Current Tranche | 2.9% | 24.7% | 25.2% | 7.2% | 16.2% |
| Previous Tranche | 2.8% | 69.4% | -14.3% | -25.2% | 11.1% |
| Tranche -2 | 11.2% | 14.2% | 8.5% | 18.3% | 13.0% |
| Tranche -3 | 41.4% | 43.7% | 78.3% | 33.0% | 49.1% |
| Tranche -4 | 14.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.5% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 89.7% | 246.8% | 107.4% | 26.1% | 117.5% |
| Current Balance | 47,429 | 86,694 | 51,851 | 31,529 | 217,503 |
| R3K Current Tranche | -0.1% | 7.9% | 14.8% | 7.6% | 7.6% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 67.0% | 70.2% | 52.9% | 33.0% | 55.8% |
| R3K Balance | 41,779 | 42,546 | 38,236 | 33,238 | 155,798 |
| Annualized IRR | 17.3% | 39.1% | 22.8% | 7.3% | 22.7% |
Note this table now have a tranche -4 row. That means I am into my 5th August tranche. In total the 5 tranches in August are up 89.7% and that is 17.3% annualized. That is not too shabby!
| LCI | $34.01 | $30.63 | $0.00 | -9.9% | 7.9% |
| SAVE | $34.48 | $39.75 | $0.00 | 15.3% | 7.9% |
| PPC | $18.98 | $23.55 | $2.75 | 38.6% | 7.9% |
| VEC | $23.60 | $32.65 | $0.00 | 38.3% | 7.9% |
| VNCE | $3.99 | $5.63 | $0.00 | 41.1% | 7.9% |
| Totals | 24.7% | 7.9% | |||
| 2/1/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VEC | $19.64 | $32.65 | $0.00 | 66.3% | 14.8% |
| QCOM | $45.18 | $62.76 | $1.01 | 41.2% | 14.8% |
| PERI | $2.45 | $1.26 | $0.00 | -48.6% | 14.8% |
| DEPO | $15.34 | $20.73 | $0.00 | 35.1% | 14.8% |
| TDC | $24.02 | $31.67 | $0.00 | 31.8% | 14.8% |
| Totals | 25.2% | 14.8% | |||
| 5/6/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BRCD | $7.97 | $10.24 | $0.06 | 29.2% | 7.6% |
| CBI | $37.82 | $32.50 | $0.00 | -14.1% | 7.6% |
| HSII | $18.51 | $18.83 | $0.13 | 2.4% | 7.6% |
| RHI | $38.51 | $38.74 | $0.22 | 1.2% | 7.6% |
| UTHR | $107.99 | $126.92 | $0.00 | 17.5% | 7.6% |
| Totals | 7.2% | 7.6% | |||
| 8/15/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CSCO | $31.20 | $30.52 | $0.00 | -2.2% | -0.1% |
| GNC | $19.79 | $19.98 | $0.00 | 1.0% | -0.1% |
| VLO | $54.73 | $54.82 | $0.00 | 0.2% | -0.1% |
| MSGN | $16.68 | $18.89 | $0.00 | 13.2% | -0.1% |
| GILD | $79.33 | $81.00 | $0.00 | 2.1% | -0.1% |
| Totals | 2.9% | -0.1% |
With the retirement of the previous August tranche, I am very, very close to have all four tranches in the lead in a long time. May is just barely behind, still hampered by poor CBI pick.
MFI Formula
This approach continues to tread water. I will stay with it, I do think it'll work. But it is a bit frustrating. To start with $100,000 two years ago and I am at $107,000. Getting rich very slowly.
| Date | Differential | Value | R3K Value |
| 10/1/2014 | 0.00% | 100,000 | 100,000 |
| 11/1/2014 | 1.63% | 102,288 | 100,658 |
| 12/1/2014 | 0.30% | 101,375 | 101,075 |
| 1/1/2015 | -0.33% | 100,664 | 100,995 |
| 2/1/2015 | 1.67% | 101,281 | 99,611 |
| 3/1/2015 | 3.62% | 106,073 | 102,454 |
| 4/1/2015 | 5.09% | 106,781 | 101,695 |
| 5/1/2015 | 5.78% | 107,859 | 102,077 |
| 6/1/2015 | 5.08% | 108,213 | 103,134 |
| 7/1/2015 | 4.82% | 106,423 | 101,604 |
| 8/1/2015 | 3.71% | 107,112 | 103,404 |
| 9/1/2015 | 4.38% | 101,523 | 97,139 |
| 10/1/2015 | 6.39% | 100,703 | 94,312 |
| 11/1/2015 | 2.93% | 104,835 | 101,907 |
| 12/1/2015 | -3.48% | 99,443 | 102,926 |
| 1/1/2016 | -3.36% | 96,830 | 100,012 |
| 2/1/2016 | -0.72% | 93,797 | 94,367 |
| 3/1/2016 | 4.07% | 98,588 | 94,367 |
| 4/1/2016 | 0.34% | 102,371 | 101,548 |
| 5/1/2016 | -1.91% | 99,774 | 101,200 |
| 6/1/2016 | -0.42% | 103,145 | 103,568 |
| 7/1/2016 | -0.19% | 103,022 | 103,216 |
| 8/1/2016 | 2.56% | 109,419 | 106,857 |
| Current | -0.13% | 107,390 | 107,520 |
| 10/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BKE | $36.83 | $28.26 | $1.98 | -17.9% | 13.9% |
| IQNT | $21.96 | $15.30 | $0.45 | -28.3% | 13.9% |
| QCOM | $53.45 | $62.76 | $1.49 | 20.2% | 13.9% |
| CSCO | $26.37 | $30.52 | $0.94 | 19.3% | 13.9% |
| CA | $27.30 | $34.16 | $0.76 | 27.9% | 13.9% |
| Totals | 4.2% | 13.9% | |||
| 12/31/15 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BBY | $30.31 | $32.59 | $1.01 | 10.9% | 7.8% |
| GME | $28.34 | $31.72 | $0.74 | 14.5% | 7.8% |
| IILG | $15.89 | $17.69 | $0.24 | 12.8% | 7.8% |
| PPC | $22.22 | $23.55 | $2.75 | 18.4% | 7.8% |
| VIAB | $40.93 | $43.49 | $0.80 | 8.2% | 7.8% |
| Totals | 13.0% | 7.8% | |||
| 4/1/16 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CALM | $51.27 | $43.71 | $0.44 | -13.9% | 7.5% |
| HPQ | $12.10 | $14.42 | $0.13 | 20.2% | 7.5% |
| TIME | $15.24 | $14.41 | $0.19 | -4.2% | 7.5% |
| IILG | $13.85 | $17.69 | $0.12 | 28.6% | 7.5% |
| TSRA | $30.79 | $32.84 | $0.20 | 7.3% | 7.5% |
| Totals | 7.6% | 7.5% | |||
| 7/1/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| IILG | $16.76 | $17.69 | $0.00 | 5.5% | 3.4% |
| VIAB | $44.00 | $43.49 | $0.00 | -1.2% | 3.4% |
| CPLA | $53.22 | $62.15 | $0.00 | 16.8% | 3.4% |
| HRB | $23.62 | $24.05 | $0.00 | 1.8% | 3.4% |
| PBI | $17.69 | $18.37 | $0.00 | 3.8% | 3.4% |
| Totals | 5.4% | 3.4% |
Looking at the tranches, it does appear that things are getting a little bit better. Another reason to stay the course.
| Category/Tranche | October | January | April | July | Total |
| Initial Investment | 249,820 | 249,939 | 250,180 | 249,728 | 999,667 |
| Current Tranche | 4.2% | 13.0% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 7.5% |
| Previous Tranche | 0.5% | 11.0% | -0.2% | -12.5% | -0.1% |
| Tranche -2 | 0.0% | - | - | - | 0.0% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 4.7% | 25.4% | 7.3% | -7.8% | 7.4% |
| Current Balance | 261,626 | 313,446 | 268,511 | 230,317 | 1,073,900 |
| R3K Current Tranche | 13.9% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 3.4% | 8.1% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 13.2% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 3.1% | 7.6% |
| R3K Balance | 282,888 | 268,811 | 266,090 | 257,407 | 1,075,196 |
| Annualized IRR | 2.5% | 14.8% | 5.2% | -6.8% | 4.8% |
Dividends
This group of stocks also is doing nicely. Actually very nicely, up 15% on the year (recall the REXI windfall earlier).
| Div and Warrants | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | Pct Gain Last Week | June 1 2016 |
| BAC-WTA | $4.90 | $4.18 | $0.00 | -14.7% | -16.3% | -20.6% |
| AOD | $7.64 | $7.84 | $1.46 | 21.8% | 20.8% | 17.1% |
| JQC | $7.82 | $8.49 | $0.45 | 14.3% | 13.0% | 8.4% |
| CSQ | $9.07 | $10.61 | $1.97 | 38.7% | 37.8% | 30.5% |
| DSL | $18.41 | $19.21 | $0.45 | 6.8% | 6.4% | 0.0% |
| TGONF | $10.24 | $10.76 | $1.69 | 21.6% | 22.4% | 12.5% |
| HIG-WT | $21.24 | $36.90 | $0.00 | 73.8% | 73.8% | 75.7% |
| O | $23.70 | $66.80 | $18.75 | 260.9% | 271.0% | 249.0% |
| OIBAX | $5.06 | $6.00 | $2.25 | 63.0% | 62.6% | 58.1% |
| SJT | $8.75 | $6.36 | $0.22 | -24.9% | -26.9% | -14.4% |
| GLDI | $10.68 | $10.59 | $0.46 | 3.4% | 2.7% | 0.0% |
| Totals | 12.9% | 11.9% | 9.0% |
This table is pretty eye-opening if you really look at it. I suppose you see the "bond bubble" at work. JQC is up 14.3% and was up 8.4% June 1st. This is a sleepy bond fund. DSL is up 6.8% since I bought. TGONF has popped from 12.5% to 21.6%. Crazy, but perhaps a bit scary.
Other Stuff
I did sell most of my PN and all my AMAG (discretionary buys). My two main buys were additional VIAB and EMG. I still also own MGIC, WLDN, GNW and SPCB in this category (along with the SDS hedge).
Have a great week.
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