It is definitely still summer here in New England. But I know when we turn the calendar next week to September, it typically starts cooling off pretty quickly. I am at home this weekend, first time in quite a while, between vacations, weekend trips to New Hampshire and taking son to college.
It was a solid week for me, although it ended a bit roughly. I am now up over 13% on the year. I did spend the week taking some profits and I am in my largest cash position of the year.
I did have some really good earnings:
Then some bad earnings:
I also had very strong moves by GNW (18%) and BAC-WTA (8%) due to the increased hope of higher rates. VNCE also popped 13% as retail became more in favor.
MFI Select
| Date | Differential | MFI Value | R3K Value |
| 12/1/2012 | -2.20% | 99,765 | 101,965 |
| 1/1/2013 | -1.78% | 102,798 | 104,575 |
| 2/1/2013 | -2.26% | 102,594 | 104,856 |
| 3/1/2013 | -2.23% | 102,881 | 105,114 |
| 4/1/2013 | -0.43% | 106,804 | 107,234 |
| 5/1/2013 | 2.00% | 110,423 | 108,423 |
| 6/1/2013 | 4.75% | 115,831 | 111,085 |
| 7/1/2013 | 4.29% | 114,888 | 110,597 |
| 8/1/2013 | 6.91% | 124,799 | 117,889 |
| 9/1/2013 | 10.46% | 124,536 | 114,079 |
| 10/1/2013 | 19.67% | 138,655 | 118,990 |
| 11/1/2013 | 19.75% | 143,514 | 123,764 |
| 12/1/2013 | 23.70% | 150,105 | 126,405 |
| 1/1/2014 | 26.63% | 157,138 | 130,503 |
| 2/1/2014 | 24.70% | 150,619 | 125,918 |
| 3/1/2014 | 25.66% | 158,116 | 132,458 |
| 4/1/2014 | 30.38% | 162,991 | 132,616 |
| 5/1/2014 | 29.65% | 162,428 | 132,779 |
| 6/1/2014 | 31.44% | 167,001 | 135,559 |
| 7/1/2014 | 39.23% | 177,971 | 138,740 |
| 8/1/2014 | 31.13% | 167,054 | 135,922 |
| 9/1/2014 | 35.90% | 177,792 | 141,892 |
| 10/1/2014 | 29.38% | 168,321 | 138,944 |
| 11/1/2014 | 26.14% | 168,810 | 142,666 |
| 12/1/2014 | 30.22% | 176,420 | 146,198 |
| 1/1/2015 | 28.17% | 174,306 | 146,140 |
| 2/1/2015 | 20.63% | 162,833 | 142,201 |
| 3/1/2015 | 25.15% | 175,476 | 150,324 |
| 4/1/2015 | 29.95% | 178,565 | 148,612 |
| 5/1/2015 | 37.31% | 186,655 | 149,348 |
| 6/1/2015 | 51.53% | 202,897 | 151,371 |
| 7/1/2015 | 62.69% | 211,437 | 148,743 |
| 8/1/2015 | 40.75% | 192,117 | 151,369 |
| 9/1/2015 | 36.41% | 178,603 | 142,195 |
| 10/1/2015 | 43.12% | 181,175 | 138,052 |
| 11/1/2015 | 69.02% | 217,959 | 148,936 |
| 12/1/2015 | 73.49% | 223,435 | 149,946 |
| 1/1/2016 | 63.33% | 209,514 | 146,186 |
| 2/1/2016 | 49.49% | 187,428 | 137,934 |
| 3/1/2016 | 56.48% | 194,415 | 137,934 |
| 4/1/2016 | 47.34% | 195,770 | 148,430 |
| 5/1/2016 | 46.38% | 194,301 | 147,923 |
| 6/1/2016 | 51.44% | 201,999 | 150,558 |
| 7/1/2016 | 50.41% | 201,092 | 150,680 |
| 8/1/2016 | 52.72% | 207,223 | 154,501 |
| Current | 64.02% | 219,394 | 155,372 |
You can see from my month by month table that August has been a very good month for my select portfolio. Really since February 1st, it has been pretty much straight up, from $187,428 to 219,394.
| 11/15/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| LCI | $34.01 | $34.23 | $0.00 | 0.6% | 7.3% |
| SAVE | $34.48 | $39.28 | $0.00 | 13.9% | 7.3% |
| PPC | $18.98 | $22.84 | $2.75 | 34.8% | 7.3% |
| VEC | $23.60 | $33.18 | $0.00 | 40.6% | 7.3% |
| VNCE | $3.99 | $6.35 | $0.00 | 59.1% | 7.3% |
| Totals | 29.8% | 7.3% | |||
| 2/1/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VEC | $19.64 | $33.18 | $0.00 | 69.0% | 14.2% |
| QCOM | $45.18 | $62.97 | $1.01 | 41.6% | 14.2% |
| PERI | $2.45 | $1.31 | $0.00 | -46.6% | 14.2% |
| DEPO | $15.34 | $19.70 | $0.00 | 28.4% | 14.2% |
| TDC | $24.02 | $32.29 | $0.00 | 34.4% | 14.2% |
| Totals | 25.4% | 14.2% | |||
| 5/6/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BRCD | $7.97 | $9.24 | $0.06 | 16.6% | 7.1% |
| CBI | $37.82 | $31.17 | $0.00 | -17.6% | 7.1% |
| HSII | $18.51 | $19.27 | $0.13 | 4.8% | 7.1% |
| RHI | $38.51 | $38.34 | $0.22 | 0.1% | 7.1% |
| UTHR | $107.99 | $121.76 | $0.00 | 12.8% | 7.1% |
| Totals | 3.3% | 7.1% | |||
| 8/15/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CSCO | $31.20 | $31.35 | $0.00 | 0.5% | -0.6% |
| GNC | $19.79 | $19.65 | $0.00 | -0.7% | -0.6% |
| VLO | $54.73 | $55.28 | $0.00 | 1.0% | -0.6% |
| MSGN | $16.68 | $17.71 | $0.00 | 6.2% | -0.6% |
| GILD | $79.33 | $79.77 | $0.00 | 0.6% | -0.6% |
| Totals | 1.5% | -0.6% |
Looking at the tranches, November has really come on strongly with LCI moving from $19 to $34 in past 3-4 months. February has four great picks and one dud (PERI). May is a struggle due to CBI. August is off to strong start.
| Category/Tranche | August | November | February | May | Total |
| Initial Investment | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 100,000 |
| Current Tranche | 1.5% | 29.8% | 25.4% | 3.3% | 17.0% |
| Previous Tranche | 2.8% | 69.4% | -14.3% | -25.2% | 11.2% |
| Tranche -2 | 11.2% | 14.2% | 8.5% | 18.3% | 13.0% |
| Tranche -3 | 41.4% | 43.7% | 78.3% | 33.0% | 49.1% |
| Tranche -4 | 14.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.5% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 87.2% | 261.1% | 107.7% | 21.5% | 119.4% |
| Current Balance | 46,803 | 90,278 | 51,930 | 30,383 | 219,394 |
| R3K Current Tranche | -0.6% | 7.3% | 14.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 66.1% | 69.3% | 52.1% | 33.0% | 55.4% |
| R3K Balance | 41,779 | 42,322 | 38,034 | 33,238 | 155,372 |
| Annualized IRR | 16.8% | 40.4% | 22.7% | 6.1% | 23.2% |
Funny that May always seems to struggle. Other three dates are strong... especially November at 40.4% annualized IRR.
MFI Formula
| Date | Differential | Value | R3K Value |
| 10/1/2014 | 0.00% | 100,000 | 100,000 |
| 11/1/2014 | 1.63% | 102,288 | 100,658 |
| 12/1/2014 | 0.30% | 101,375 | 101,075 |
| 1/1/2015 | -0.33% | 100,664 | 100,995 |
| 2/1/2015 | 1.67% | 101,281 | 99,611 |
| 3/1/2015 | 3.62% | 106,073 | 102,454 |
| 4/1/2015 | 5.09% | 106,781 | 101,695 |
| 5/1/2015 | 5.78% | 107,859 | 102,077 |
| 6/1/2015 | 5.08% | 108,213 | 103,134 |
| 7/1/2015 | 4.82% | 106,423 | 101,604 |
| 8/1/2015 | 3.71% | 107,112 | 103,404 |
| 9/1/2015 | 4.38% | 101,523 | 97,139 |
| 10/1/2015 | 6.39% | 100,703 | 94,312 |
| 11/1/2015 | 2.93% | 104,835 | 101,907 |
| 12/1/2015 | -3.48% | 99,443 | 102,926 |
| 1/1/2016 | -3.36% | 96,830 | 100,012 |
| 2/1/2016 | -0.72% | 93,797 | 94,367 |
| 3/1/2016 | 4.07% | 98,588 | 94,367 |
| 4/1/2016 | 0.34% | 102,371 | 101,548 |
| 5/1/2016 | -1.91% | 99,774 | 101,200 |
| 6/1/2016 | -0.42% | 103,145 | 103,568 |
| 7/1/2016 | -0.19% | 103,022 | 103,216 |
| 8/1/2016 | 2.56% | 109,419 | 106,857 |
| Current | 0.84% | 107,791 | 106,949 |
This one is more back and forth. Looking at month by month, I have once again pulled into a slight lead. But certainly not time for a victory lap.
| 10/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BKE | $36.83 | $26.82 | $1.98 | -21.8% | 13.3% |
| IQNT | $21.96 | $16.17 | $0.60 | -23.6% | 13.3% |
| QCOM | $53.45 | $62.97 | $1.49 | 20.6% | 13.3% |
| CSCO | $26.37 | $31.35 | $0.94 | 22.4% | 13.3% |
| CA | $27.30 | $34.08 | $1.01 | 28.5% | 13.3% |
| Totals | 5.2% | 13.3% | |||
| 12/31/15 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BBY | $30.31 | $39.48 | $1.01 | 33.6% | 7.3% |
| GME | $28.34 | $28.74 | $0.74 | 4.0% | 7.3% |
| IILG | $15.89 | $17.66 | $0.24 | 12.6% | 7.3% |
| PPC | $22.22 | $22.84 | $2.75 | 15.2% | 7.3% |
| VIAB | $40.93 | $41.11 | $0.80 | 2.4% | 7.3% |
| Totals | 13.6% | 7.3% | |||
| 4/1/16 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CALM | $51.27 | $44.08 | $0.44 | -13.2% | 7.0% |
| HPQ | $12.10 | $14.39 | $0.13 | 19.9% | 7.0% |
| TIME | $15.24 | $14.31 | $0.19 | -4.9% | 7.0% |
| IILG | $13.85 | $17.66 | $0.12 | 28.3% | 7.0% |
| TSRA | $30.79 | $33.72 | $0.40 | 10.8% | 7.0% |
| Totals | 8.2% | 7.0% | |||
| 7/1/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| IILG | $16.76 | $17.66 | $0.00 | 5.4% | 2.8% |
| VIAB | $44.00 | $41.11 | $0.00 | -6.6% | 2.8% |
| CPLA | $53.22 | $60.44 | $0.39 | 14.3% | 2.8% |
| HRB | $23.62 | $24.26 | $0.00 | 2.7% | 2.8% |
| PBI | $17.69 | $18.77 | $0.19 | 7.2% | 2.8% |
| Totals | 4.6% | 2.8% |
Of my open tranches, 10/1 has bounced back quite a bit, but is likely to end up losing. The other three are all winning, which is inspiring.
| Category/Tranche | October | January | April | July | Total |
| Initial Investment | 249,820 | 249,939 | 250,180 | 249,728 | 999,667 |
| Current Tranche | 5.2% | 13.6% | 8.2% | 4.6% | 7.9% |
| Previous Tranche | 0.5% | 11.0% | -0.2% | -12.5% | -0.1% |
| Tranche -2 | 0.0% | - | - | - | 0.0% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 5.7% | 26.1% | 7.9% | -8.4% | 7.8% |
| Current Balance | 264,093 | 315,120 | 270,063 | 228,631 | 1,077,907 |
| R3K Current Tranche | 13.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 2.8% | 7.6% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 12.6% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 2.5% | 7.0% |
| R3K Balance | 281,398 | 267,387 | 264,674 | 256,030 | 1,069,489 |
| Annualized IRR | 3.0% | 15.0% | 5.6% | -7.3% | 5.0% |
Comparing the table to the select table is eye-opening. Select has done so much better. I'd like to say that means I am a great stock picker and I am better off relying on that than a "formula". But I doubt that is the case.
Dividends and Warrants
In February I had increased my BAC warrant position substantially with buys ate $3.80 and $3.50. I decided to use the recent spike to sell that positions as this is/was my single largest position. I did sell a day too early. I will keep the cash aside, I think there is a very strong chance I will get some more buying opportunities in next six months. I may put the gains into JPM warrants though, just to spread risk a bit. While I think these warrants represent a good value, it should not be lost on readers of this blog that they do have a possibility of going to zero. I just want to manage that... something that has a real probability of going to zero should probably not be my largest position.
| Div and Warrants | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | Pct Gain Last Week | June 1 2016 |
| BAC-WTA | $4.90 | $4.50 | $0.00 | -8.2% | -14.7% | -20.6% |
| AOD | $7.64 | $7.74 | $1.52 | 21.2% | 21.8% | 17.1% |
| JQC | $7.82 | $8.42 | $0.45 | 13.4% | 14.3% | 8.4% |
| CSQ | $9.07 | $10.59 | $1.97 | 38.5% | 38.7% | 30.5% |
| DSL | $18.41 | $19.19 | $0.45 | 6.6% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| TGONF | $10.24 | $10.99 | $1.69 | 23.8% | 21.6% | 12.5% |
| HIG-WT | $21.24 | $36.90 | $0.00 | 73.8% | 73.8% | 75.7% |
| O | $23.70 | $65.73 | $18.75 | 256.4% | 260.9% | 249.0% |
| OIBAX | $5.06 | $5.96 | $2.25 | 62.2% | 63.0% | 58.1% |
| SJT | $8.75 | $6.26 | $0.22 | -26.0% | -24.9% | -14.4% |
| GLDI | $10.68 | $10.44 | $0.46 | 2.0% | 3.4% | 0.0% |
| Totals | 14.5% | 12.9% | 9.0% |
This portion of my portfolio continues to be outstanding and is up over 17% in 2016. That includes the large gains I got from REXI in the spring when it was bought out at a handsome premium.
Other Stocks
I really pared this area back. I own
- EMG
- WLDN
- MGIC
- GNW
- and SDS (as a hedge).
I also have a little PN, though I have taken 80% of my gains. I do continue to watch some stocks: AR, LNG, AMAG and IMPV to name a few. If we do get some form of correction, they'll be part of shopping list. WLDN has been just remarkable. It is now up 84% for me. I am tempted to sell, but I still like their prospects and I would like to make it to December 15th to turn gains into LT.
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