Saturday, August 27, 2016

Weekend Update - August 27, 2016

Weekend Update

It is definitely still summer here in New England. But I know when we turn the calendar next week to September, it typically starts cooling off pretty quickly.  I am at home this weekend, first time in quite a while, between vacations, weekend trips to New Hampshire and taking son to college.

It was a solid week for me, although it ended a bit roughly. I am now up over 13% on the year.  I did spend the week taking some profits and I am in my largest cash position of the year.

I did have some really good earnings:

Then some bad earnings:
I also had very strong moves by GNW (18%) and BAC-WTA (8%) due to the increased hope of higher rates. VNCE also popped 13% as retail became more in favor.

MFI Select

 Date   Differential   MFI Value   R3K Value 
12/1/2012 -2.20%          99,765            101,965
1/1/2013 -1.78%        102,798            104,575
2/1/2013 -2.26%        102,594            104,856
3/1/2013 -2.23%        102,881            105,114
4/1/2013 -0.43%        106,804            107,234
5/1/2013 2.00%        110,423            108,423
6/1/2013 4.75%        115,831            111,085
7/1/2013 4.29%        114,888            110,597
8/1/2013 6.91%        124,799            117,889
9/1/2013 10.46%        124,536            114,079
10/1/2013 19.67%        138,655            118,990
11/1/2013 19.75%        143,514            123,764
12/1/2013 23.70%        150,105            126,405
1/1/2014 26.63%        157,138            130,503
2/1/2014 24.70%        150,619            125,918
3/1/2014 25.66%        158,116            132,458
4/1/2014 30.38%        162,991            132,616
5/1/2014 29.65%        162,428            132,779
6/1/2014 31.44%        167,001            135,559
7/1/2014 39.23%        177,971            138,740
8/1/2014 31.13%        167,054            135,922
9/1/2014 35.90%        177,792            141,892
10/1/2014 29.38%        168,321            138,944
11/1/2014 26.14%        168,810            142,666
12/1/2014 30.22%        176,420            146,198
1/1/2015 28.17%        174,306            146,140
2/1/2015 20.63%        162,833            142,201
3/1/2015 25.15%        175,476            150,324
4/1/2015 29.95%        178,565            148,612
5/1/2015 37.31%        186,655            149,348
6/1/2015 51.53%        202,897            151,371
7/1/2015 62.69%        211,437            148,743
8/1/2015 40.75%        192,117            151,369
9/1/2015 36.41%        178,603            142,195
10/1/2015 43.12%        181,175            138,052
11/1/2015 69.02%        217,959            148,936
12/1/2015 73.49%        223,435            149,946
1/1/2016 63.33%        209,514            146,186
2/1/2016 49.49%        187,428            137,934
3/1/2016 56.48%        194,415            137,934
4/1/2016 47.34%        195,770            148,430
5/1/2016 46.38%        194,301            147,923
6/1/2016 51.44%        201,999            150,558
7/1/2016 50.41%        201,092            150,680
8/1/2016 52.72%        207,223            154,501
Current 64.02%        219,394            155,372

You can see from my month by month table that August has been a very good month for my select portfolio. Really since February 1st, it has been pretty much straight up, from $187,428 to 219,394.


11/15/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 LCI  $34.01 $34.23 $0.00 0.6% 7.3%
 SAVE  $34.48 $39.28 $0.00 13.9% 7.3%
 PPC  $18.98 $22.84 $2.75 34.8% 7.3%
 VEC  $23.60 $33.18 $0.00 40.6% 7.3%
 VNCE  $3.99 $6.35 $0.00 59.1% 7.3%
 Totals  29.8% 7.3%
2/1/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 VEC  $19.64 $33.18 $0.00 69.0% 14.2%
 QCOM  $45.18 $62.97 $1.01 41.6% 14.2%
 PERI  $2.45 $1.31 $0.00 -46.6% 14.2%
 DEPO  $15.34 $19.70 $0.00 28.4% 14.2%
 TDC  $24.02 $32.29 $0.00 34.4% 14.2%
 Totals  25.4% 14.2%
5/6/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BRCD  $7.97 $9.24 $0.06 16.6% 7.1%
 CBI  $37.82 $31.17 $0.00 -17.6% 7.1%
 HSII  $18.51 $19.27 $0.13 4.8% 7.1%
 RHI  $38.51 $38.34 $0.22 0.1% 7.1%
 UTHR  $107.99 $121.76 $0.00 12.8% 7.1%
 Totals  3.3% 7.1%
8/15/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CSCO  $31.20 $31.35 $0.00 0.5% -0.6%
 GNC  $19.79 $19.65 $0.00 -0.7% -0.6%
 VLO  $54.73 $55.28 $0.00 1.0% -0.6%
 MSGN  $16.68 $17.71 $0.00 6.2% -0.6%
 GILD  $79.33 $79.77 $0.00 0.6% -0.6%
 Totals  1.5% -0.6%

Looking at the tranches, November has really come on strongly with LCI moving from $19 to $34 in past 3-4 months. February has four great picks and one dud (PERI). May is a struggle due to CBI.  August is off to strong start.


 Category/Tranche   August   November   February   May   Total 
 Initial Investment         25,000          25,000       25,000        25,000      100,000
 Current Tranche  1.5% 29.8% 25.4% 3.3% 17.0%
 Previous Tranche  2.8% 69.4% -14.3% -25.2% 11.2%
 Tranche -2  11.2% 14.2% 8.5% 18.3% 13.0%
 Tranche -3  41.4% 43.7% 78.3% 33.0% 49.1%
 Tranche -4  14.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.5%
 MFI Overall Gain  87.2% 261.1% 107.7% 21.5% 119.4%
 Current Balance         46,803          90,278       51,930        30,383      219,394
 R3K Current Tranche  -0.6% 7.3% 14.2% 7.1% 7.0%
 R3K Overall Gain  66.1% 69.3% 52.1% 33.0% 55.4%
 R3K Balance         41,779          42,322       38,034        33,238      155,372
 Annualized IRR  16.8% 40.4% 22.7% 6.1% 23.2%

Funny that May always seems to struggle. Other three dates are strong... especially November at 40.4% annualized IRR.

MFI Formula

 Date   Differential   Value   R3K Value 
10/1/2014 0.00%        100,000            100,000
11/1/2014 1.63%        102,288            100,658
12/1/2014 0.30%        101,375            101,075
1/1/2015 -0.33%        100,664            100,995
2/1/2015 1.67%        101,281              99,611
3/1/2015 3.62%        106,073            102,454
4/1/2015 5.09%        106,781            101,695
5/1/2015 5.78%        107,859            102,077
6/1/2015 5.08%        108,213            103,134
7/1/2015 4.82%        106,423            101,604
8/1/2015 3.71%        107,112            103,404
9/1/2015 4.38%        101,523              97,139
10/1/2015 6.39%        100,703              94,312
11/1/2015 2.93%        104,835            101,907
12/1/2015 -3.48%          99,443            102,926
1/1/2016 -3.36%          96,830            100,012
2/1/2016 -0.72%          93,797              94,367
3/1/2016 4.07%          98,588              94,367
4/1/2016 0.34%        102,371            101,548
5/1/2016 -1.91%          99,774            101,200
6/1/2016 -0.42%        103,145            103,568
7/1/2016 -0.19%        103,022            103,216
8/1/2016 2.56%        109,419            106,857
Current 0.84%        107,791            106,949

This one is more back and forth.  Looking at month by month,  I have once again pulled into a slight lead. But certainly not time for a victory lap.


10/1/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BKE  $36.83 $26.82 $1.98 -21.8% 13.3%
 IQNT  $21.96 $16.17 $0.60 -23.6% 13.3%
 QCOM  $53.45 $62.97 $1.49 20.6% 13.3%
 CSCO  $26.37 $31.35 $0.94 22.4% 13.3%
 CA  $27.30 $34.08 $1.01 28.5% 13.3%
 Totals  5.2% 13.3%
 12/31/15 Stocks   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BBY  $30.31 $39.48 $1.01 33.6% 7.3%
 GME  $28.34 $28.74 $0.74 4.0% 7.3%
 IILG  $15.89 $17.66 $0.24 12.6% 7.3%
 PPC  $22.22 $22.84 $2.75 15.2% 7.3%
 VIAB  $40.93 $41.11 $0.80 2.4% 7.3%
 Totals  13.6% 7.3%
 4/1/16 Stocks  Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
 CALM  $51.27 $44.08 $0.44 -13.2% 7.0%
 HPQ  $12.10 $14.39 $0.13 19.9% 7.0%
 TIME  $15.24 $14.31 $0.19 -4.9% 7.0%
 IILG  $13.85 $17.66 $0.12 28.3% 7.0%
 TSRA  $30.79 $33.72 $0.40 10.8% 7.0%
 Totals  8.2% 7.0%
7/1/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 IILG  $16.76 $17.66 $0.00 5.4% 2.8%
 VIAB  $44.00 $41.11 $0.00 -6.6% 2.8%
 CPLA  $53.22 $60.44 $0.39 14.3% 2.8%
 HRB  $23.62 $24.26 $0.00 2.7% 2.8%
 PBI  $17.69 $18.77 $0.19 7.2% 2.8%
 Totals  4.6% 2.8%

Of my open tranches, 10/1 has bounced back quite a bit, but is likely to end up losing. The other three are all winning, which is inspiring.

 Category/Tranche   October   January   April   July   Total 
 Initial Investment      249,820        249,939     250,180      249,728         999,667
 Current Tranche  5.2% 13.6% 8.2% 4.6% 7.9%
 Previous Tranche  0.5% 11.0% -0.2% -12.5% -0.1%
 Tranche -2  0.0%                 -                 -                  -   0.0%
 MFI Overall Gain  5.7% 26.1% 7.9% -8.4% 7.8%
 Current Balance      264,093        315,120     270,063      228,631      1,077,907
 R3K Current Tranche  13.3% 7.3% 7.0% 2.8% 7.6%
 R3K Overall Gain  12.6% 7.0% 5.8% 2.5% 7.0%
 R3K Balance      281,398        267,387     264,674      256,030      1,069,489
 Annualized IRR  3.0% 15.0% 5.6% -7.3% 5.0%

Comparing the table to the select table is eye-opening. Select has done so much better.  I'd  like to say that means I am a great stock picker and I am better off relying on that than a "formula". But I doubt that is the case.

Dividends and Warrants

In February I had increased my BAC warrant position substantially with buys ate $3.80 and $3.50.  I decided to use the recent spike to sell that positions as this is/was my single largest position.  I did sell a day too early.  I will keep the cash aside, I think there is a very strong chance I will get some more buying opportunities in next six months.  I may put the gains into JPM warrants though, just to spread risk a bit.  While I think these warrants represent a good value, it should not be lost on readers of this blog that they do have a possibility of going to zero. I just want to  manage that...  something that has a real probability of going to zero should probably not be my largest position.


 Div and Warrants   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   Pct Gain Last Week   June 1 2016 
 BAC-WTA  $4.90 $4.50 $0.00 -8.2% -14.7% -20.6%
 AOD  $7.64 $7.74 $1.52 21.2% 21.8% 17.1%
 JQC  $7.82 $8.42 $0.45 13.4% 14.3% 8.4%
 CSQ  $9.07 $10.59 $1.97 38.5% 38.7% 30.5%
 DSL  $18.41 $19.19 $0.45 6.6% 6.8% 0.0%
 TGONF  $10.24 $10.99 $1.69 23.8% 21.6% 12.5%
 HIG-WT  $21.24 $36.90 $0.00 73.8% 73.8% 75.7%
 O  $23.70 $65.73 $18.75 256.4% 260.9% 249.0%
 OIBAX  $5.06 $5.96 $2.25 62.2% 63.0% 58.1%
 SJT  $8.75 $6.26 $0.22 -26.0% -24.9% -14.4%
 GLDI  $10.68 $10.44 $0.46 2.0% 3.4% 0.0%
 Totals  14.5% 12.9% 9.0%

This portion of my portfolio continues to be outstanding and is up over 17% in 2016.  That includes the large gains I got from REXI in the spring when it was bought out at a handsome premium.

Other Stocks

I really pared this area back.  I own

  1. EMG
  2. WLDN
  3. MGIC
  4. GNW
  5. and SDS (as a hedge).
I also have a little PN, though I have taken 80% of my gains.  I do continue to watch some stocks: AR, LNG, AMAG and IMPV to name a few.   If we do get some form of correction, they'll be part of shopping list.  WLDN has been just remarkable.  It is now up 84% for  me. I am tempted to sell, but I still like their prospects and I would like to make it to December 15th to turn gains into LT.


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