My first time ever here. Looking at the view from my cabin (left), I am not sure why I waited fifty something years. It got down to 35 last night, now sitting with coffee next to a wood-burning stove.
I gained another 80 basis points in my portfolio this past week. Things are going very, very well. I am now up over 11% for the year and am beating benchmark by almost 3%.
Looking at individual names, this was clearly "Revenge of Retail Week" as the market finally recognized that while retail is a bit wounded, it is not worthless.
- GME +4.4%
- VNCE +5.7%
- SALE +12.6%
Then a few of my discretionary picks continue to do very well. WLDN was up 12%, AVID (which I bought and sold) was up 17% and SPCB was up 10%.
MFI Select
Tomorrow will be the final day of my 8/15/15 tranche. It has rallied of late, really helped by SALE, which is up 48% since the end of June. Sometimes you have to be patient.
| 8/17/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VDSI | $18.66 | $17.23 | $0.00 | -7.7% | 4.9% |
| SALE | $9.34 | $11.45 | $0.00 | 22.6% | 4.9% |
| CSCO | $28.95 | $30.87 | $0.94 | 9.9% | 4.9% |
| TGNA | $25.30 | $20.95 | $0.56 | -15.0% | 4.9% |
| HSII | $20.14 | $18.77 | $0.39 | -4.9% | 4.9% |
| Totals | 1.0% | 4.9% |
So not a disaster here. TGNA though (I believe) has been one of the worst performers in S&P 500 over past 52 weeks.
| 11/15/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| LCI | $34.01 | $31.36 | $0.00 | -7.8% | 7.3% |
| SAVE | $34.48 | $39.98 | $0.00 | 16.0% | 7.3% |
| PPC | $18.98 | $22.74 | $2.75 | 34.3% | 7.3% |
| VEC | $23.60 | $31.92 | $0.00 | 35.3% | 7.3% |
| VNCE | $3.99 | $5.02 | $0.00 | 25.8% | 7.3% |
| Totals | 20.7% | 7.3% |
The November tranche has been terrific. LCI is the week link, but has been a rocketship over past quarter and may still make me some money. I am worried about SAVE and impact of Zika virus.
| 2/1/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VEC | $19.64 | $31.92 | $0.00 | 62.5% | 14.2% |
| QCOM | $45.18 | $61.71 | $1.01 | 38.8% | 14.2% |
| PERI | $2.45 | $1.31 | $0.00 | -46.5% | 14.2% |
| DEPO | $15.34 | $21.48 | $0.00 | 40.0% | 14.2% |
| TDC | $24.02 | $31.36 | $0.00 | 30.6% | 14.2% |
| Totals | 25.1% | 14.2% |
February is four eagles and one turkey. Hopefully it can still bounce back, although I have been underwhelmed with recent earnings.
| 5/6/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BRCD | $7.97 | $9.67 | $0.06 | 22.0% | 7.0% |
| CBI | $37.82 | $33.55 | $0.00 | -11.3% | 7.0% |
| HSII | $18.51 | $18.77 | $0.13 | 2.1% | 7.0% |
| RHI | $38.51 | $37.21 | $0.22 | -2.8% | 7.0% |
| UTHR | $107.99 | $125.19 | $0.00 | 15.9% | 7.0% |
| Totals | 5.2% | 7.0% |
Still early days here. I almost picked AGX instead of CBI. I am really down on CBI of late and will likely never buy them again.
| Category/Tranche | August | November | February | May | Total |
| Initial Investment | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 100,000 |
| Current Tranche | 1.0% | 20.7% | 25.1% | 5.2% | 14.0% |
| Previous Tranche | 11.2% | 69.4% | -14.3% | -25.2% | 8.4% |
| Tranche -2 | 41.4% | 14.2% | 8.5% | 18.3% | 20.6% |
| Tranche -3 | 14.1% | 43.7% | 78.3% | 33.0% | 42.3% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 81.1% | 235.7% | 107.3% | 23.7% | 112.0% |
| Current Balance | 45,280 | 83,935 | 51,818 | 30,925 | 211,958 |
| R3K Current Tranche | 4.9% | 7.3% | 14.2% | 7.0% | 8.4% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 66.4% | 69.2% | 52.1% | 33.0% | 55.2% |
| R3K Balance | 41,604 | 42,310 | 38,023 | 33,238 | 155,175 |
| Annualized IRR | 16.0% | 38.1% | 22.9% | 6.7% | 22.2% |
When you look at this matrix, the 22.2% overall annualized IRR is outstanding. But it really varies by tranche (MFI does have some riskier individual plays) with November up 38% and May just 6.7%. So that has caused November (notionally) to grow from $25,000 to $83,935, while May has only gotten to 30,925. It makes me want to make sure I don't mess up November as a 10% loss there will be more painful.
| Date | Differential | MFI Value | R3K Value |
| 12/1/2012 | -2.20% | 99,765 | 101,965 |
| 1/1/2013 | -1.78% | 102,798 | 104,575 |
| 2/1/2013 | -2.26% | 102,594 | 104,856 |
| 3/1/2013 | -2.23% | 102,881 | 105,114 |
| 4/1/2013 | -0.43% | 106,804 | 107,234 |
| 5/1/2013 | 2.00% | 110,423 | 108,423 |
| 6/1/2013 | 4.75% | 115,831 | 111,085 |
| 7/1/2013 | 4.29% | 114,888 | 110,597 |
| 8/1/2013 | 6.91% | 124,799 | 117,889 |
| 9/1/2013 | 10.46% | 124,536 | 114,079 |
| 10/1/2013 | 19.67% | 138,655 | 118,990 |
| 11/1/2013 | 19.75% | 143,514 | 123,764 |
| 12/1/2013 | 23.70% | 150,105 | 126,405 |
| 1/1/2014 | 26.63% | 157,138 | 130,503 |
| 2/1/2014 | 24.70% | 150,619 | 125,918 |
| 3/1/2014 | 25.66% | 158,116 | 132,458 |
| 4/1/2014 | 30.38% | 162,991 | 132,616 |
| 5/1/2014 | 29.65% | 162,428 | 132,779 |
| 6/1/2014 | 31.44% | 167,001 | 135,559 |
| 7/1/2014 | 39.23% | 177,971 | 138,740 |
| 8/1/2014 | 31.13% | 167,054 | 135,922 |
| 9/1/2014 | 35.90% | 177,792 | 141,892 |
| 10/1/2014 | 29.38% | 168,321 | 138,944 |
| 11/1/2014 | 26.14% | 168,810 | 142,666 |
| 12/1/2014 | 30.22% | 176,420 | 146,198 |
| 1/1/2015 | 28.17% | 174,306 | 146,140 |
| 2/1/2015 | 20.63% | 162,833 | 142,201 |
| 3/1/2015 | 25.15% | 175,476 | 150,324 |
| 4/1/2015 | 29.95% | 178,565 | 148,612 |
| 5/1/2015 | 37.31% | 186,655 | 149,348 |
| 6/1/2015 | 51.53% | 202,897 | 151,371 |
| 7/1/2015 | 62.69% | 211,437 | 148,743 |
| 8/1/2015 | 40.75% | 192,117 | 151,369 |
| 9/1/2015 | 36.41% | 178,603 | 142,195 |
| 10/1/2015 | 43.12% | 181,175 | 138,052 |
| 11/1/2015 | 69.02% | 217,959 | 148,936 |
| 12/1/2015 | 73.49% | 223,435 | 149,946 |
| 1/1/2016 | 63.33% | 209,514 | 146,186 |
| 2/1/2016 | 49.49% | 187,428 | 137,934 |
| 3/1/2016 | 56.48% | 194,415 | 137,934 |
| 4/1/2016 | 47.34% | 195,770 | 148,430 |
| 5/1/2016 | 46.38% | 194,301 | 147,923 |
| 6/1/2016 | 51.44% | 201,999 | 150,558 |
| 7/1/2016 | 50.41% | 201,092 | 150,680 |
| 8/1/2016 | 52.72% | 207,223 | 154,501 |
| Current | 56.78% | 211,958 | 155,175 |
August continues to be a successful month.
MFI Formula
As I noted last week, this tranche has struggled of late. IQNT and VIAB have been the leaders (if that is the right term) of the underperformance.
| 10/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BKE | $36.83 | $25.99 | $1.98 | -24.1% | 13.8% |
| IQNT | $21.96 | $15.84 | $0.45 | -25.8% | 13.8% |
| QCOM | $53.45 | $61.71 | $1.49 | 18.3% | 13.8% |
| CSCO | $26.37 | $30.87 | $0.94 | 20.6% | 13.8% |
| CA | $27.30 | $34.20 | $0.76 | 28.0% | 13.8% |
| Totals | 3.4% | 13.8% | |||
| 12/31/15 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BBY | $30.31 | $34.87 | $1.01 | 18.4% | 7.8% |
| GME | $28.34 | $31.35 | $0.74 | 13.2% | 7.8% |
| IILG | $15.89 | $17.46 | $0.24 | 11.4% | 7.8% |
| PPC | $22.22 | $22.74 | $2.75 | 14.7% | 7.8% |
| VIAB | $40.93 | $42.91 | $0.80 | 6.8% | 7.8% |
| Totals | 12.9% | 7.8% | |||
| 4/1/16 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CALM | $51.27 | $42.05 | $0.44 | -17.1% | 7.5% |
| HPQ | $12.10 | $14.28 | $0.13 | 19.0% | 7.5% |
| TIME | $15.24 | $13.65 | $0.19 | -9.2% | 7.5% |
| IILG | $13.85 | $17.46 | $0.12 | 26.9% | 7.5% |
| TSRA | $30.79 | $32.28 | $0.20 | 5.5% | 7.5% |
| Totals | 5.0% | 7.5% | |||
| 7/1/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| IILG | $16.76 | $17.46 | $0.00 | 4.2% | 3.3% |
| VIAB | $44.00 | $42.91 | $0.00 | -2.5% | 3.3% |
| CPLA | $53.22 | $59.32 | $0.00 | 11.5% | 3.3% |
| HRB | $23.62 | $24.56 | $0.00 | 4.0% | 3.3% |
| PBI | $17.69 | $18.45 | $0.00 | 4.3% | 3.3% |
| Totals | 4.3% | 3.3% |
| Category/Tranche | October | January | April | July | Total |
| Initial Investment | 249,820 | 249,939 | 250,180 | 249,728 | 999,667 |
| Current Tranche | 3.4% | 12.9% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 6.4% |
| Previous Tranche | 0.5% | 11.0% | -0.2% | -12.5% | -0.1% |
| Tranche -2 | 0.0% | - | - | - | 0.0% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 3.9% | 25.3% | 4.8% | -8.7% | 6.3% |
| Current Balance | 259,520 | 313,283 | 262,093 | 227,958 | 1,062,853 |
| R3K Current Tranche | 13.8% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 3.3% | 8.1% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 13.2% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 3.0% | 7.5% |
| R3K Balance | 282,715 | 268,646 | 265,925 | 257,248 | 1,074,534 |
| Annualized IRR | 2.1% | 14.9% | 3.4% | -7.8% | 4.2% |
| Date | Differential | Value | R3K Value |
| 10/1/2014 | 0.00% | 100,000 | 100,000 |
| 11/1/2014 | 1.63% | 102,288 | 100,658 |
| 12/1/2014 | 0.30% | 101,375 | 101,075 |
| 1/1/2015 | -0.33% | 100,664 | 100,995 |
| 2/1/2015 | 1.67% | 101,281 | 99,611 |
| 3/1/2015 | 3.62% | 106,073 | 102,454 |
| 4/1/2015 | 5.09% | 106,781 | 101,695 |
| 5/1/2015 | 5.78% | 107,859 | 102,077 |
| 6/1/2015 | 5.08% | 108,213 | 103,134 |
| 7/1/2015 | 4.82% | 106,423 | 101,604 |
| 8/1/2015 | 3.71% | 107,112 | 103,404 |
| 9/1/2015 | 4.38% | 101,523 | 97,139 |
| 10/1/2015 | 6.39% | 100,703 | 94,312 |
| 11/1/2015 | 2.93% | 104,835 | 101,907 |
| 12/1/2015 | -3.48% | 99,443 | 102,926 |
| 1/1/2016 | -3.36% | 96,830 | 100,012 |
| 2/1/2016 | -0.72% | 93,797 | 94,367 |
| 3/1/2016 | 4.07% | 98,588 | 94,367 |
| 4/1/2016 | 0.34% | 102,371 | 101,548 |
| 5/1/2016 | -1.91% | 99,774 | 101,200 |
| 6/1/2016 | -0.42% | 103,145 | 103,568 |
| 7/1/2016 | -0.19% | 103,022 | 103,216 |
| 8/1/2016 | 2.56% | 109,419 | 106,857 |
| Current | -1.17% | 106,285 | 107,454 |
You can see how bad August is, going from 2.56% lead to now down by 1.17%. Sigh.
Dividends/Warrants
| Div and Warrants | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | Pct Gain Last Week | June 1 2016 |
| BAC-WTA | $4.90 | $4.10 | $0.00 | -16.3% | -15.3% | -20.6% |
| AOD | $7.64 | $7.76 | $1.46 | 20.8% | 18.8% | 17.1% |
| JQC | $7.82 | $8.44 | $0.40 | 13.0% | 12.9% | 8.4% |
| CSQ | $9.06 | $10.50 | $1.98 | 37.8% | 37.0% | 30.5% |
| DSL | $18.41 | $19.14 | $0.45 | 6.4% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| TGONF | $10.24 | $10.85 | $1.69 | 22.4% | 16.9% | 12.5% |
| HIG-WT | $21.24 | $36.90 | $0.00 | 73.8% | 73.8% | 75.7% |
| O | $23.57 | $68.64 | $18.80 | 271.0% | 270.6% | 249.0% |
| OIBAX | $5.06 | $5.98 | $2.25 | 62.6% | 61.6% | 58.1% |
| SJT | $8.75 | $6.18 | $0.22 | -26.9% | -28.3% | -14.4% |
| GLDI | $10.68 | $10.68 | $0.29 | 2.7% | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| Totals | 11.9% | 11.0% | 9.0% |
Solid week here. TGONF is making a quiet move towards respectability.
Ok, I am off to the chuck wagon. Yee-haw!
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