Monday, August 15, 2016

8/15/15 - Call It A Wrap

Call  It A  Wrap

I just closed the books on my most recent MFI tranche. Thought people might enjoy a pix out my window of the Brooks Mountains in Wyoming.  This morning I climbed to the top of that ridge, a climb of over 2,000 ft ending at 11,700 ft. I was tuckered out when I got there!

I do like to look at various benchmarks when scoring an MFI tranche that ends for me.  I like to see what would have happened had I not sold the stocks a year ago.  I like to see how the stocks I did not pick fared.  And then I  like to look at the various MFI tracking portfolios.

Here is the final table on the tranche (I have actually included all my closed tranches for the record):

 8/15/12 Stocks   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 DLB  $34.43 $33.04 $4.00 7.6% 22.1%
 KFY  $13.98 $18.95 $0.00 35.6% 22.1%
 MSFT  $30.19 $31.92 $0.92 8.8% 22.1%
 NSU  $3.62 $3.33 $0.12 -4.6% 22.1%
 UIS  $19.96 $24.52 $0.00 22.8% 22.1%
 Totals  14.1% 22.1%
 11/15/12 Stocks   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AAPL  $537.62 $527.28 $8.75 -0.3% 36.7%
 ABC  $40.21 $69.23 $0.86 74.3% 36.7%
 LPS  $23.89 $34.26 $0.40 45.1% 36.7%
 VIAB  $49.12 $80.94 $1.15 67.1% 36.7%
 WU  $12.77 $16.40 $0.50 32.3% 36.7%
 Totals  43.7% 36.7%
 2/1/13 Stocks   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AAPL  $450.60 $500.66 $8.75 13.1% 21.1%
 GA  $6.10 $11.01 $0.65 91.2% 21.1%
 STRZA  $16.06 $27.98 $0.00 74.2% 21.1%
 CA  $25.07 $32.08 $1.00 32.0% 21.1%
 NUS  $41.94 $116.59 $1.20 180.8% 21.1%
 Totals  78.3% 21.1%
 5/6/2013   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 KLIC  $11.40 $14.44 $0.00 26.7% 18.9%
 CYOU  $29.24 $28.02 $0.00 -4.2% 18.9%
 RDA  $9.74 $16.79 $0.10 73.5% 18.9%
 NVDA  $13.85 $18.43 $0.32 35.4% 18.9%
 CF  $183.97 $243.22 $2.80 33.7% 18.9%
 Totals  33.0% 18.9%
 8/15/2013   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CF  $187.26 $247.43 $4.50 34.5% 19.4%
 FLR  $66.06 $73.03 $0.53 11.4% 19.4%
 AGX  $15.60 $36.71 $0.75 140.1% 19.4%
 KLIC  $11.29 $14.26 $0.00 26.3% 19.4%
 RPXC  $15.92 $15.09 $0.00 -5.2% 19.4%
 Totals  41.4% 19.4%
 11/15/13 Stocks   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AVG  $17.22 $19.21 $0.00 11.6% 14.5%
 ATVI  $17.71 $20.10 $0.20 14.6% 14.5%
 GA  $9.04 $11.90 $0.23 34.2% 14.5%
 RPXC  $17.04 $13.91 $0.00 -18.4% 14.5%
 SYNA  $48.01 $61.90 $0.00 28.9% 14.5%
 Totals  14.2% 14.5%
 2/1/14 Stocks   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 ATVI  $17.13 $20.90 $0.20 23.1% 12.9%
 KLAC  $61.47 $61.47 $18.40 29.9% 12.9%
 RPXC  $16.22 $12.35 $0.00 -23.9% 12.9%
 SNDK  $69.55 $75.91 $0.83 10.3% 12.9%
 WNR  $39.11 $37.13 $3.04 2.7% 12.9%
 Totals  8.5% 12.9%
 5/6/2014   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AVG  $19.57 $23.27 $0.00 18.9% 12.9%
 CA  $29.54 $31.41 $1.00 9.7% 12.9%
 CSCO  $22.79 $28.89 $0.78 30.2% 12.9%
 NSR  $25.82 $30.69 $0.00 18.9% 12.9%
 RCII  $28.78 $31.77 $0.94 13.7% 12.9%
 Totals  18.3% 12.9%
 8/15/2014   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CSCO  $24.40 $28.95 $0.80 21.9% 8.8%
 AGX  $36.71 $40.69 $0.70 12.7% 8.8%
 ITRN  $21.32 $25.11 $0.87 21.9% 8.8%
 BRCD  $9.34 $10.15 $0.15 10.3% 8.8%
 CBI  $58.25 $51.70 $0.21 -10.9% 8.8%
 Totals  11.2% 8.8%
 11/15/2014   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 FLR  $64.80 $47.46 $0.84 -25.5% 0.8%
 IPCM  $38.45 $80.03 $0.00 108.1% 0.8%
 VIAB  $72.29 $50.69 $1.46 -27.9% 0.8%
 NHTC  $12.19 $51.46 $0.06 322.6% 0.8%
 AWRE  $4.40 $3.07 $0.00 -30.2% 0.8%
 Totals  69.4% 0.8%
 2/1/2015   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 VEC  $28.00 $19.76 $0.00 -29.4% -2.6%
 QCOM  $62.73 $45.34 $1.86 -24.8% -2.6%
 VIAB  $63.91 $44.90 $1.53 -27.4% -2.6%
 UIS  $22.03 $10.87 $0.00 -50.7% -2.6%
 NHTC  $12.44 $19.95 $0.05 60.8% -2.6%
 Totals  -14.3% -2.6%
 5/6/2015   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CBI  $50.38 $38.23 $0.14 -23.8% -0.9%
 PSDV  $4.12 $2.87 $0.00 -30.4% -0.9%
 TSRA  $38.94 $30.46 $0.80 -19.7% -0.9%
 KORS  $62.24 $50.87 $0.00 -18.3% -0.9%
 DEPO  $23.50 $15.51 $0.00 -34.0% -0.9%
 Totals  -25.2% -0.9%
8/17/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 VDSI  $18.66 $17.45 $0.00 -6.5% 5.3%
 SALE  $9.34 $11.75 $0.00 25.8% 5.3%
 CSCO  $28.95 $31.20 $0.94 11.0% 5.3%
 TGNA  $25.30 $21.37 $0.56 -13.3% 5.3%
 HSII  $20.14 $19.19 $0.39 -2.8% 5.3%
 Totals  2.8% 5.3%


So you can see that this is my third straight tranche to  close a loser (though 2 of 3 open are leading).  But I give kudos to this tranche, it closed a lot of ground late.  If we go back just a quarter the spread was -12.6% tp -2%.

If we look at 8/15/14 runoff, that was not very good.   Those five names were down about 3%.  CBI being the biggest loser, off 34%. AGX was up 16%.

Then it is time to  count my blessings. The ten stocks I considered but did not pick were down 19%! Whew.  I show them in table below:


Stock Start End Pct Chg
AGX         40.52         46.80 15.5%
BRCD         10.15           9.75 -3.9%
CBI         50.91         34.04 -33.1%
KORS         43.38         49.96 15.2%
MNDO           2.72           2.28 -16.2%
BSQR           7.22           4.30 -40.4%
BKE         41.81         26.83 -35.8%
VIAB         43.67         42.82 -2.0%
LCI         52.71         32.02 -39.3%
PERI           2.51           1.27 -49.4%

Not many winners there.

Finally, a  look at the nearest MFI tracking portfolio. The 8/28/15 tranche is up  5.3% versus 11.2% for the benchmark.

I will buy my five new stocks either tomorrow or Wednesday.  Bit of a hectic travel day tomorrow, we will  see.

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