Wow. I didn't realize there was a bubble in retail. But they have all had some air let out this week:
- M -17%
- KSS -14%
- GPS -19%
- DDS -11.5%
- JWN -19%
- SHLD -17%
- JCP -7%
Watchmakers hit
- FOSL -31%
- KORS -17%
My retail was hit as well
- GME -5%
- VNCE -7%
- BBY -4%
- BKE -8%
Of course AMZN was up 5% as we are witnessing a rotation.
My Week
I was down 40 basis points for the week. Which is pretty much on par with the market. I am now up 1% this year, while the Russell 3000 is up 0.5%. Woo-hoo! The only reason I am up is that I have been extremely successful in 2016 with my short term swing trades. On a secret factor basis, I have made $80,000 in 2016 on stocks I have bought and sold in 2016. I have made another $22,000 on dividend/warrant stock adds in 2016 that were based on the market drops. So that is $102,000 from discretionary action I have taken in 2016. And my overall gain (factor adjusted) in 2016 is $34,000.
I think you can read into this commentary that MFI is not working so well for me of late.
MFI Select
I am always excited to start a new tranche. The May 6th tranche is up a whopping 0.2%! Giddy-up.
| 8/17/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VDSI | $18.66 | $15.39 | $0.00 | -17.5% | -2.0% |
| SALE | $9.34 | $7.07 | $0.00 | -24.3% | -2.0% |
| CSCO | $28.95 | $26.53 | $0.68 | -6.0% | -2.0% |
| TGNA | $25.30 | $22.80 | $0.42 | -8.2% | -2.0% |
| HSII | $20.14 | $18.50 | $0.26 | -6.9% | -2.0% |
| Totals | -12.6% | -2.0% | |||
| 11/15/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| LCI | $34.01 | $18.96 | $ - | -44.3% | 0.2% |
| SAVE | $34.48 | $40.03 | $ - | 16.1% | 0.2% |
| PPC | $18.98 | $25.73 | $ 2.75 | 50.1% | 0.2% |
| VEC | $23.60 | $24.22 | $ - | 2.6% | 0.2% |
| VNCE | $3.99 | $5.41 | $ - | 35.6% | 0.2% |
| Totals | 12.0% | 0.2% | |||
| 2/1/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VEC | $19.64 | $24.22 | $ - | 23.3% | 6.6% |
| QCOM | $45.18 | $51.32 | $ 0.48 | 14.7% | 6.6% |
| PERI | $2.45 | $1.39 | $ - | -43.3% | 6.6% |
| DEPO | $15.34 | $17.87 | $ - | 16.5% | 6.6% |
| TDC | $24.02 | $26.41 | $ - | 10.0% | 6.6% |
| Totals | 4.2% | 6.6% | |||
| 5/6/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BRCD | $7.97 | $7.92 | $ - | -0.6% | -0.1% |
| CBI | $37.82 | $36.88 | $ - | -2.5% | -0.1% |
| HSII | $18.51 | $18.50 | $ - | -0.1% | -0.1% |
| RHI | $38.51 | $38.89 | $ - | 1.0% | -0.1% |
| UTHR | $107.99 | $111.48 | $ - | 3.2% | -0.1% |
| Totals | 0.2% | -0.1% |
If you looked week over week, you'd see that VEC was my big driver. It was up almost 13% on good earnings/guidance. So it has moved the February tranche towards respectability (4 great picks and one duddy PERI).
| Category/Tranche | August | November | February | May | Total |
| Initial Investment | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 100,000 |
| Current Tranche | -12.6% | 12.0% | 4.2% | 0.2% | 1.0% |
| Previous Tranche | 11.2% | 69.4% | -14.3% | -25.2% | 55.7% |
| Tranche -2 | 41.4% | 14.2% | 8.5% | 18.3% | 20.6% |
| Tranche -3 | 14.1% | 43.7% | 78.3% | 33.0% | 0.0% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 56.8% | 211.6% | 72.7% | 17.8% | 89.7% |
| Current Balance | 39,194 | 77,897 | 43,180 | 29,461 | 189,732 |
| R3K Current Tranche | -2.0% | 0.2% | 6.6% | -0.1% | 1.2% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 55.4% | 58.0% | 42.0% | 33.0% | 47.1% |
| R3K Balance | 38,862 | 39,511 | 35,492 | 33,238 | 147,103 |
| Annualized IRR | 12.7% | 38.4% | 18.1% | 5.6% | 20.2% |
| Date | Differential | MFI Value | R3K Value |
| 12/1/2012 | -2.20% | 99,765 | 101,965 |
| 1/1/2013 | -1.78% | 102,798 | 104,575 |
| 2/1/2013 | -2.26% | 102,594 | 104,856 |
| 3/1/2013 | -2.23% | 102,881 | 105,114 |
| 4/1/2013 | -0.43% | 106,804 | 107,234 |
| 5/1/2013 | 2.00% | 110,423 | 108,423 |
| 6/1/2013 | 4.75% | 115,831 | 111,085 |
| 7/1/2013 | 4.29% | 114,888 | 110,597 |
| 8/1/2013 | 6.91% | 124,799 | 117,889 |
| 9/1/2013 | 10.46% | 124,536 | 114,079 |
| 10/1/2013 | 19.67% | 138,655 | 118,990 |
| 11/1/2013 | 19.75% | 143,514 | 123,764 |
| 12/1/2013 | 23.70% | 150,105 | 126,405 |
| 1/1/2014 | 26.63% | 157,138 | 130,503 |
| 2/1/2014 | 24.70% | 150,619 | 125,918 |
| 3/1/2014 | 25.66% | 158,116 | 132,458 |
| 4/1/2014 | 30.38% | 162,991 | 132,616 |
| 5/1/2014 | 29.65% | 162,428 | 132,779 |
| 6/1/2014 | 31.44% | 167,001 | 135,559 |
| 7/1/2014 | 39.23% | 177,971 | 138,740 |
| 8/1/2014 | 31.13% | 167,054 | 135,922 |
| 9/1/2014 | 35.90% | 177,792 | 141,892 |
| 10/1/2014 | 29.38% | 168,321 | 138,944 |
| 11/1/2014 | 26.14% | 168,810 | 142,666 |
| 12/1/2014 | 30.22% | 176,420 | 146,198 |
| 1/1/2015 | 28.17% | 174,306 | 146,140 |
| 2/1/2015 | 20.63% | 162,833 | 142,201 |
| 3/1/2015 | 25.15% | 175,476 | 150,324 |
| 4/1/2015 | 29.95% | 178,565 | 148,612 |
| 5/1/2015 | 37.31% | 186,655 | 149,348 |
| 6/1/2015 | 51.53% | 202,897 | 151,371 |
| 7/1/2015 | 62.69% | 211,437 | 148,743 |
| 8/1/2015 | 40.75% | 192,117 | 151,369 |
| 9/1/2015 | 36.41% | 178,603 | 142,195 |
| 10/1/2015 | 43.12% | 181,175 | 138,052 |
| 11/1/2015 | 69.02% | 217,959 | 148,936 |
| 12/1/2015 | 73.49% | 223,435 | 149,946 |
| 1/1/2016 | 63.33% | 209,514 | 146,186 |
| 2/1/2016 | 49.49% | 187,428 | 137,934 |
| 3/1/2016 | 56.48% | 194,415 | 137,934 |
| 4/1/2016 | 47.34% | 195,770 | 148,430 |
| 5/1/2016 | 46.38% | 194,301 | 147,923 |
| Current | 42.63% | 189,732 | 147,103 |
This table clearly shows that the past year I have gone nowhere. That may actually be a good result compared to MFI in total.
MFI Formula
Taking my comment about going nowhere in past year, here is the same table:
| Date | Differential | Value | R3K Value |
| 10/1/2014 | 0.00% | 100,000 | 100,000 |
| 11/1/2014 | 1.63% | 102,288 | 100,658 |
| 12/1/2014 | 0.30% | 101,375 | 101,075 |
| 1/1/2015 | -0.33% | 100,664 | 100,995 |
| 2/1/2015 | 1.67% | 101,281 | 99,611 |
| 3/1/2015 | 3.62% | 106,073 | 102,454 |
| 4/1/2015 | 5.09% | 106,781 | 101,695 |
| 5/1/2015 | 5.78% | 107,859 | 102,077 |
| 6/1/2015 | 5.08% | 108,213 | 103,134 |
| 7/1/2015 | 4.82% | 106,423 | 101,604 |
| 8/1/2015 | 3.71% | 107,112 | 103,404 |
| 9/1/2015 | 4.38% | 101,523 | 97,139 |
| 10/1/2015 | 6.39% | 100,703 | 94,312 |
| 11/1/2015 | 2.93% | 104,835 | 101,907 |
| 12/1/2015 | -3.48% | 99,443 | 102,926 |
| 1/1/2016 | -3.36% | 96,830 | 100,012 |
| 2/1/2016 | -0.72% | 93,797 | 94,367 |
| 3/1/2016 | 4.07% | 98,588 | 94,367 |
| 4/1/2016 | 0.34% | 102,371 | 101,548 |
| 5/1/2016 | -1.91% | 99,774 | 101,200 |
| Current | -2.49% | 98,023 | 100,514 |
Since May 2015, down from $108,000 to $98,000. Not exactly inspiring. Not even satisfactory. I am giving serious consideration to winding this down and rolling money into securities I will just buy and hold (like my dividend portfolio). It would simplify my portfolio and I think my results would be as good.
I will note that my MFI Index is now down 6% for the year. The losing streak continues month after month after month after month.
| 7/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BKE | $46.45 | $23.88 | $1.96 | -44.4% | -1.5% |
| CA | $29.34 | $31.53 | $0.75 | 10.0% | -1.5% |
| MSFT | $44.42 | $51.08 | $1.03 | 17.3% | -1.5% |
| QCOM | $62.95 | $51.32 | $1.44 | -16.2% | -1.5% |
| VIAB | $64.75 | $39.53 | $1.20 | -37.1% | -1.5% |
| Totals | -14.1% | -1.5% | |||
| 10/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BKE | $36.83 | $23.88 | $1.73 | -30.5% | 5.7% |
| IQNT | $21.96 | $16.54 | $0.30 | -23.3% | 5.7% |
| QCOM | $53.45 | $51.32 | $0.96 | -2.2% | 5.7% |
| CSCO | $26.37 | $26.53 | $0.68 | 3.2% | 5.7% |
| CA | $27.30 | $31.53 | $0.50 | 17.3% | 5.7% |
| Totals | -7.1% | 5.7% | |||
| 12/31/15 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BBY | $30.31 | $30.95 | $0.73 | 4.5% | 0.1% |
| GME | $28.34 | $28.73 | $0.37 | 2.7% | 0.1% |
| IILG | $15.89 | $14.47 | $0.12 | -8.2% | 0.1% |
| PPC | $22.22 | $25.73 | $2.75 | 28.2% | 0.1% |
| VIAB | $40.93 | $39.53 | $0.40 | -2.4% | 0.1% |
| Totals | 5.0% | 0.1% | |||
| 4/1/16 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CALM | $51.27 | $48.88 | $0.44 | -3.8% | -0.2% |
| HPQ | $12.10 | $11.50 | $0.00 | -5.0% | -0.2% |
| TIME | $15.24 | $14.00 | $0.00 | -8.2% | -0.2% |
| IILG | $13.85 | $14.47 | $0.00 | 4.4% | -0.2% |
| TSRA | $30.79 | $29.49 | $0.00 | -4.2% | -0.2% |
| Totals | -3.3% | -0.2% |
Not much to cheer about here.
MFI Micro
This will be my last post on MFI Micro. It did reasonably well - making money and beating the benchmarks. But I am trying to simplify and while I am not a "whale", I have had trouble buying and selling these securities as market caps are so small. So I sold BSQR and MNDO. I will look for opportunities to sell the other three.
| 8/28/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VNCE | $8.50 | $6.60 | $0.00 | -22.4% | -1.1% |
| ONE | $1.99 | $4.20 | $0.00 | 111.1% | -1.1% |
| TPUB | $11.60 | $8.36 | $0.18 | -26.4% | -1.1% |
| LQDT | $7.26 | $4.68 | $0.00 | -35.5% | -1.1% |
| PERI | $2.45 | $2.23 | $0.00 | -9.0% | -1.1% |
| Totals | 3.6% | -1.1% |
| 12/15/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| MGIC | $5.38 | $6.67 | $0.09 | 25.7% | -0.1% |
| BSQR | $6.00 | $5.36 | $0.00 | -10.7% | -0.1% |
| SPCB | $4.52 | $3.36 | $0.00 | -25.7% | -0.1% |
| WLDN | $8.64 | $10.35 | $0.00 | 19.8% | -0.1% |
| MNDO | $2.58 | $2.04 | $0.27 | -10.5% | -0.1% |
| Totals | - | -0.3% | -0.1% |
Dividends and Warrants
This approach is up almost 5% for the year, but did struggle last week as BAC warrants continue to trickle down. I am not sure what will unlock the value here - clearly the fed starting to raise rates a bit more will help. I note I bought my first warrants 3 years ago at $5.10. They are now $3.78. BAC stock has gone from $13.30 to $13.90 along with some dividends. So I would have been better off buying the stock than the warrants!
| Div and Warrants | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | Pct Gain Last Week | Year End 2015 |
| BAC-WTA | $4.90 | $3.78 | $0.00 | -22.8% | -21.4% | -3.6% |
| AOD | $7.65 | $7.38 | $1.33 | 13.9% | 15.3% | 15.3% |
| JQC | $7.81 | $7.93 | $0.30 | 5.4% | 4.2% | 0.9% |
| CSQ | $9.03 | $9.70 | $1.78 | 27.1% | 26.7% | 27.3% |
| NTC | $12.07 | $13.68 | $1.50 | 25.7% | 25.1% | 16.1% |
| TGONF | $10.24 | $9.80 | $1.52 | 10.6% | 10.6% | 8.3% |
| HIG-WT | $21.24 | $37.39 | $0.00 | 76.1% | 72.9% | 72.9% |
| O | $23.19 | $63.62 | $18.37 | 253.5% | 253.4% | 205.7% |
| OIBAX | $5.05 | $5.74 | $2.21 | 57.3% | 57.7% | 51.9% |
| SJT | $8.76 | $6.11 | $0.19 | -28.1% | -23.3% | -51.6% |
| REXI | $5.60 | $6.10 | $0.13 | 11.2% | 15.6% | -2.8% |
| Totals | 7.8% | 9.1% | 6.2% |
TGONF is interesting at $9.80. There is a tender offer on them between $10 and $11. So it seems you could lock in a profit.
Have a great weekend.
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