Weekend Update 3/4/16

Weekend Update

What a week. I was up close to  5% as everything worked. I actually sold some positions mid week, and that ended up being way too early.

So with this week, I am now in the black for 2016 - up 80 basis points. My MFI Formula approach is the big winner, up 2.5%.  MFI Select is still down 4%. As a benchmark, MFI Index is down 2%.

MFI Select

I think the month by month table shows a lot:

Date	Differential	MFI Value	R3K Value
12/1/2012	-2.20%	99,765	101,965
1/1/2013	-1.78%	102,798	104,575
2/1/2013	-2.26%	102,594	104,856
3/1/2013	-2.23%	102,881	105,114
4/1/2013	-0.43%	106,804	107,234
5/1/2013	2.00%	110,423	108,423
6/1/2013	4.75%	115,831	111,085
7/1/2013	4.29%	114,888	110,597
8/1/2013	6.91%	124,799	117,889
9/1/2013	10.46%	124,536	114,079
10/1/2013	19.67%	138,655	118,990
11/1/2013	19.75%	143,514	123,764
12/1/2013	23.70%	150,105	126,405
1/1/2014	26.63%	157,138	130,503
2/1/2014	24.70%	150,619	125,918
3/1/2014	25.66%	158,116	132,458
4/1/2014	30.38%	162,991	132,616
5/1/2014	29.65%	162,428	132,779
6/1/2014	31.44%	167,001	135,559
7/1/2014	39.23%	177,971	138,740
8/1/2014	31.13%	167,054	135,922
9/1/2014	35.90%	177,792	141,892
10/1/2014	29.38%	168,321	138,944
11/1/2014	26.14%	168,810	142,666
12/1/2014	30.22%	176,420	146,198
1/1/2015	28.17%	174,306	146,140
2/1/2015	20.63%	162,833	142,201
3/1/2015	25.15%	175,476	150,324
4/1/2015	29.95%	178,565	148,612
5/1/2015	37.31%	186,655	149,348
6/1/2015	51.53%	202,897	151,371
7/1/2015	62.69%	211,437	148,743
8/1/2015	40.75%	192,117	151,369
9/1/2015	36.41%	178,603	142,195
10/1/2015	43.12%	181,175	138,052
11/1/2015	69.02%	217,959	148,936
12/1/2015	73.49%	223,435	149,946
1/1/2016	63.33%	209,514	146,186
2/1/2016	49.49%	187,428	137,934
3/1/2016	56.48%	194,415	137,934
Current	57.59%	200,719	143,130

So up $13,000 since 2/1/16.  But still down for 2016 and down significantly (10%) from 12/1/15. But importantly, it is working and winning.

5/6/2015	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
CBI	$50.38	$35.83	$0.14	-28.6%	-4.0%
PSDV	$4.12	$2.93	$0.00	-29.0%	-4.0%
TSRA	$38.94	$30.00	$0.80	-20.9%	-4.0%
KORS	$62.24	$57.16	$0.00	-8.2%	-4.0%
DEPO	$23.50	$15.44	$0.00	-34.3%	-4.0%
Totals				-24.2%	-4.0%
8/17/2015	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
VDSI	$18.66	$14.70	$0.00	-21.2%	-4.6%
SALE	$9.34	$8.27	$0.00	-11.4%	-4.6%
CSCO	$28.95	$26.80	$0.42	-6.0%	-4.6%
TGNA	$25.30	$24.87	$0.42	0.0%	-4.6%
HSII	$20.14	$24.45	$0.26	22.7%	-4.6%
Totals				-3.2%	-4.6%
11/15/2015	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
LCI	$34.01	$24.82	-	-27.0%	-2.4%
SAVE	$34.48	$49.74	-	44.3%	-2.4%
PPC	$18.98	$24.68	-	30.0%	-2.4%
VEC	$23.60	$20.06	-	-15.0%	-2.4%
VNCE	$3.99	$6.90	-	72.9%	-2.4%
Totals				21.0%	-2.4%
2/1/2016	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
VEC	$19.64	$20.06	-	2.1%	3.8%
QCOM	$45.18	$52.66	0	17.6%	3.8%
PERI	$2.45	$2.23	-	-9.0%	3.8%
DEPO	$15.34	$15.44	-	0.7%	3.8%
TDC	$24.02	$26.80	-	11.6%	3.8%
Totals				4.6%	3.8%
Category/Tranche	August	November	February	May	Total
Initial Investment	25,000	25,000	25,000	25,000	100,000
Current Tranche	-3.2%	21.0%	4.6%	-24.2%	-0.3%
Previous Tranche	11.2%	69.4%	-14.3%	18.3%	62.0%
Tranche -2	41.4%	14.2%	8.5%	33.0%	24.3%
Tranche -3	14.1%	43.7%	78.3%	0.0%	0.0%
MFI Overall Gain	73.6%	236.7%	73.3%	19.3%	100.7%
Current Balance	43,400	84,168	43,333	29,817	200,719
R3K Current Tranche	-4.6%	-2.4%	3.8%	-4.0%	-1.8%
R3K Overall Gain	51.4%	54.0%	38.3%	28.8%	43.1%
R3K Balance	37,861	38,489	34,569	32,211	143,130
Annualized IRR	16.8%	44.4%	19.5%	6.4%	26.1%

Looking at the tranches, May is just dreadful.  I know it is tempting to ask, "what was I thinking" with that tranche.  But that was just a bad spot for MFI. My two tracking portfolios around that date are down 19 and 18%. At least November is killing it, helped by SAVE and VNCE (up73%).  I still think LCI will rebound, the market is concerned about their acquisition - if integration is successful, they should move to mid 40s.

MFI Formula

I am pleased that this seems to be getting traction.

Date	Differential	Value	R3K Value
10/1/2014	0.00%	100,000	100,000
11/1/2014	1.63%	102,288	100,658
12/1/2014	0.30%	101,375	101,075
1/1/2015	-0.33%	100,664	100,995
2/1/2015	1.67%	101,281	99,611
3/1/2015	3.62%	106,073	102,454
4/1/2015	5.09%	106,781	101,695
5/1/2015	5.78%	107,859	102,077
6/1/2015	5.08%	108,213	103,134
7/1/2015	4.82%	106,423	101,604
8/1/2015	3.71%	107,112	103,404
9/1/2015	4.38%	101,523	97,139
10/1/2015	6.39%	100,703	94,312
11/1/2015	2.93%	104,835	101,907
12/1/2015	-3.48%	99,443	102,926
1/1/2016	-3.36%	96,830	100,193
2/1/2016	-0.72%	93,797	94,319
3/1/2016	4.07%	98,588	94,319
Current	1.90%	99,967	97,867

You can see that I am almost back to where I started from. Not an houdini type feat, but to me it feels like an accomplishment. And I am back to beating the benchmark.  I was really hurt yesterday by HRB dropping 15%.

3/31/2015	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
HRB	$31.99	$27.76	$0.60	-11.3%	-4.1%
GME	$37.69	$31.23	$1.45	-13.3%	-4.1%
KING	$15.85	$18.00	$0.00	13.6%	-4.1%
NSU	$3.43	$3.48	$0.12	5.0%	-4.1%
PPC	$22.65	$24.68	$0.00	9.0%	-4.1%
Totals				0.6%	-4.1%
7/1/2015	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
BKE	$46.45	$31.23	$1.71	-29.1%	-4.0%
CA	$29.34	$29.56	$0.75	3.3%	-4.0%
MSFT	$44.42	$52.03	$1.03	19.5%	-4.0%
QCOM	$62.95	$52.66	$1.44	-14.1%	-4.0%
VIAB	$64.75	$38.82	$0.80	-38.8%	-4.0%
Totals				-11.8%	-4.0%
10/1/2015	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
BKE	$36.83	$31.23	$1.48	-11.2%	3.0%
IQNT	$21.96	$17.11	$0.30	-20.7%	3.0%
QCOM	$53.45	$52.66	$0.96	0.3%	3.0%
CSCO	$26.37	$26.80	$0.42	3.2%	3.0%
CA	$27.30	$29.56	$0.50	10.1%	3.0%
Totals				-3.6%	3.0%
12/31/15 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
BBY	$30.31	$33.57	$0.00	10.8%	-2.5%
GME	$28.34	$31.23	$0.37	11.5%	-2.5%
IILG	$15.89	$13.76	$0.12	-12.6%	-2.5%
PPC	$22.22	$24.68	$0.00	11.1%	-2.5%
VIAB	$40.93	$38.82	$0.00	-5.1%	-2.5%
Totals				3.1%	-2.5%

Just a few weeks to go on 3/31 tranche.  It was looking like a clear winner until HRB fiasco.  BKE  also is struggling, same store sales down almost 9% in February. That is terrible.

MFI Micro

I sold my positions in the first Micro portfolio.  These were never official MFI portfolios.  Of course I sold early as TPUB and VNCE popped post sale.

8/28/2015	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
VNCE	$8.50	$6.60	$0.00	-22.4%	-1.1%
ONE	$1.99	$4.20	$0.00	111.1%	-1.1%
TPUB	$11.60	$8.36	$0.18	-26.4%	-1.1%
LQDT	$7.26	$4.68	$0.00	-35.5%	-1.1%
PERI	$2.45	$2.23	$0.00	-9.0%	-1.1%
Totals				3.6%	-1.1%
12/15/2015	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
MGIC	$5.38	$7.05	$0.00	31.0%	-2.2%
BSQR	$6.00	$5.73	$0.00	-4.5%	-2.2%
SPCB	$4.52	$5.06	$0.00	11.9%	-2.2%
WLDN	$8.64	$8.71	$0.00	0.8%	-2.2%
MNDO	$2.58	$2.44	$0.00	-5.7%	-2.2%
Totals			-	6.7%	-2.2%

So these have actually worked very well.  I  am actually quite bullish on the open December tranche. SPCB and WLDN have recently used their excess cash to make some accretive purchases.

Warrants/Dividend Stocks

This approach is now also in the black for 2016.  That is quite a comeback.

Div and Warrants	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	Pct Gain Last Week	Year End 2015
BAC-WTA	$4.90	$4.16	$0.00	-15.1%	-20.2%	-3.6%
AOD	$7.65	$7.23	$1.23	10.7%	7.7%	15.3%
JQC	$7.81	$7.73	$0.15	0.9%	-4.3%	0.9%
CSQ	$9.03	$9.20	$1.56	19.2%	14.8%	27.3%
NTC	$12.06	$12.87	$1.34	17.8%	17.7%	16.1%
TGONF	$10.24	$8.80	$1.36	-0.8%	-5.4%	8.3%
HIG-WT	$21.24	$36.60	$0.00	72.3%	67.1%	72.9%
O	$22.83	$58.16	$18.15	234.3%	235.5%	205.7%
OIBAX	$5.05	$5.56	$2.18	53.3%	51.0%	51.9%
SJT	$8.79	$5.55	$0.18	-34.8%	-43.8%	-51.6%
REXI	$5.59	$5.41	$0.07	-2.1%	-13.0%	-2.8%
Totals				3.7%	-1.5%	6.2%

Going from -1.5% to +3.7% in a week can give you whiplash.  I did also sell my JPM warrants during the week.  That has been a great trade for me, making 21.2% and 12.5% in two trades. REXI popped 14% at one point yesterday, I do think that is a name to keep your eye on.

Other Names

One stock I was bullish on a couple years ago and got burned was GNW.  I thankfully sold most of my shares between $7 and $13 and did not ride down to $2.  But I have a full position now that I started over the past month with a basis of $2.40.  It has since moved up to $2.80.  This is a stock that is much maligned and I fully get it.  But they are also at about 15% of book value.  If anything goes right at all, this could quickly be a $5 stock - so I have retaken a sizable position.

Have a great weekend.