Saturday, March 05, 2016

Weekend Update 3/4/16

Weekend Update

What a week. I was up close to  5% as everything worked. I actually sold some positions mid week, and that ended up being way too early.

So with this week, I am now in the black for 2016 - up 80 basis points. My MFI Formula approach is the big winner, up 2.5%.  MFI Select is still down 4%. As a benchmark, MFI Index is down 2%.

MFI Select

I think the month by month table shows a lot:

 Date   Differential   MFI Value   R3K Value 
12/1/2012 -2.20%          99,765            101,965
1/1/2013 -1.78%        102,798            104,575
2/1/2013 -2.26%        102,594            104,856
3/1/2013 -2.23%        102,881            105,114
4/1/2013 -0.43%        106,804            107,234
5/1/2013 2.00%        110,423            108,423
6/1/2013 4.75%        115,831            111,085
7/1/2013 4.29%        114,888            110,597
8/1/2013 6.91%        124,799            117,889
9/1/2013 10.46%        124,536            114,079
10/1/2013 19.67%        138,655            118,990
11/1/2013 19.75%        143,514            123,764
12/1/2013 23.70%        150,105            126,405
1/1/2014 26.63%        157,138            130,503
2/1/2014 24.70%        150,619            125,918
3/1/2014 25.66%        158,116            132,458
4/1/2014 30.38%        162,991            132,616
5/1/2014 29.65%        162,428            132,779
6/1/2014 31.44%        167,001            135,559
7/1/2014 39.23%        177,971            138,740
8/1/2014 31.13%        167,054            135,922
9/1/2014 35.90%        177,792            141,892
10/1/2014 29.38%        168,321            138,944
11/1/2014 26.14%        168,810            142,666
12/1/2014 30.22%        176,420            146,198
1/1/2015 28.17%        174,306            146,140
2/1/2015 20.63%        162,833            142,201
3/1/2015 25.15%        175,476            150,324
4/1/2015 29.95%        178,565            148,612
5/1/2015 37.31%        186,655            149,348
6/1/2015 51.53%        202,897            151,371
7/1/2015 62.69%        211,437            148,743
8/1/2015 40.75%        192,117            151,369
9/1/2015 36.41%        178,603            142,195
10/1/2015 43.12%        181,175            138,052
11/1/2015 69.02%        217,959            148,936
12/1/2015 73.49%        223,435            149,946
1/1/2016 63.33%        209,514            146,186
2/1/2016 49.49%        187,428            137,934
3/1/2016 56.48%        194,415            137,934
Current 57.59%        200,719            143,130


So up $13,000 since 2/1/16.  But still down for 2016 and down significantly (10%) from 12/1/15. But importantly, it is working and winning.

5/6/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CBI  $50.38 $35.83 $0.14 -28.6% -4.0%
 PSDV  $4.12 $2.93 $0.00 -29.0% -4.0%
 TSRA  $38.94 $30.00 $0.80 -20.9% -4.0%
 KORS  $62.24 $57.16 $0.00 -8.2% -4.0%
 DEPO  $23.50 $15.44 $0.00 -34.3% -4.0%
 Totals  -24.2% -4.0%
8/17/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 VDSI  $18.66 $14.70 $0.00 -21.2% -4.6%
 SALE  $9.34 $8.27 $0.00 -11.4% -4.6%
 CSCO  $28.95 $26.80 $0.42 -6.0% -4.6%
 TGNA  $25.30 $24.87 $0.42 0.0% -4.6%
 HSII  $20.14 $24.45 $0.26 22.7% -4.6%
 Totals  -3.2% -4.6%
11/15/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 LCI  $34.01 $24.82               -   -27.0% -2.4%
 SAVE  $34.48 $49.74               -   44.3% -2.4%
 PPC  $18.98 $24.68               -   30.0% -2.4%
 VEC  $23.60 $20.06               -   -15.0% -2.4%
 VNCE  $3.99 $6.90               -   72.9% -2.4%
 Totals  21.0% -2.4%
2/1/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 VEC  $19.64 $20.06               -   2.1% 3.8%
 QCOM  $45.18 $52.66                0 17.6% 3.8%
 PERI  $2.45 $2.23               -   -9.0% 3.8%
 DEPO  $15.34 $15.44               -   0.7% 3.8%
 TDC  $24.02 $26.80               -   11.6% 3.8%
 Totals  4.6% 3.8%
 Category/Tranche   August   November   February   May   Total 
 Initial Investment         25,000          25,000       25,000        25,000      100,000
 Current Tranche  -3.2% 21.0% 4.6% -24.2% -0.3%
 Previous Tranche  11.2% 69.4% -14.3% 18.3% 62.0%
 Tranche -2  41.4% 14.2% 8.5% 33.0% 24.3%
 Tranche -3  14.1% 43.7% 78.3% 0.0% 0.0%
 MFI Overall Gain  73.6% 236.7% 73.3% 19.3% 100.7%
 Current Balance         43,400          84,168       43,333        29,817      200,719
 R3K Current Tranche  -4.6% -2.4% 3.8% -4.0% -1.8%
 R3K Overall Gain  51.4% 54.0% 38.3% 28.8% 43.1%
 R3K Balance         37,861          38,489       34,569        32,211      143,130
 Annualized IRR  16.8% 44.4% 19.5% 6.4% 26.1%


Looking at the tranches, May is just dreadful.  I know it is tempting to ask, "what was I thinking" with that tranche.  But that was just a bad spot for MFI. My two tracking portfolios around that date are down 19 and 18%. At least November is killing it, helped by SAVE and VNCE (up73%).  I still think LCI will rebound, the market is concerned about their acquisition - if integration is successful, they should move to mid 40s.

MFI Formula

I am pleased that this seems to be getting traction.

 Date   Differential   Value   R3K Value 
10/1/2014 0.00%        100,000            100,000
11/1/2014 1.63%        102,288            100,658
12/1/2014 0.30%        101,375            101,075
1/1/2015 -0.33%        100,664            100,995
2/1/2015 1.67%        101,281              99,611
3/1/2015 3.62%        106,073            102,454
4/1/2015 5.09%        106,781            101,695
5/1/2015 5.78%        107,859            102,077
6/1/2015 5.08%        108,213            103,134
7/1/2015 4.82%        106,423            101,604
8/1/2015 3.71%        107,112            103,404
9/1/2015 4.38%        101,523              97,139
10/1/2015 6.39%        100,703              94,312
11/1/2015 2.93%        104,835            101,907
12/1/2015 -3.48%          99,443            102,926
1/1/2016 -3.36%          96,830            100,193
2/1/2016 -0.72%          93,797              94,319
3/1/2016 4.07%          98,588              94,319
Current 1.90%          99,967              97,867

You can see that I am almost back to where I started from. Not an houdini type feat, but to me it feels like an accomplishment. And I am back to beating the benchmark.  I was really hurt yesterday by HRB dropping 15%.

3/31/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 HRB  $31.99 $27.76 $0.60 -11.3% -4.1%
 GME  $37.69 $31.23 $1.45 -13.3% -4.1%
 KING  $15.85 $18.00 $0.00 13.6% -4.1%
 NSU  $3.43 $3.48 $0.12 5.0% -4.1%
 PPC  $22.65 $24.68 $0.00 9.0% -4.1%
 Totals  0.6% -4.1%
7/1/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BKE  $46.45 $31.23 $1.71 -29.1% -4.0%
 CA  $29.34 $29.56 $0.75 3.3% -4.0%
 MSFT  $44.42 $52.03 $1.03 19.5% -4.0%
 QCOM  $62.95 $52.66 $1.44 -14.1% -4.0%
 VIAB  $64.75 $38.82 $0.80 -38.8% -4.0%
 Totals  -11.8% -4.0%
10/1/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BKE  $36.83 $31.23 $1.48 -11.2% 3.0%
 IQNT  $21.96 $17.11 $0.30 -20.7% 3.0%
 QCOM  $53.45 $52.66 $0.96 0.3% 3.0%
 CSCO  $26.37 $26.80 $0.42 3.2% 3.0%
 CA  $27.30 $29.56 $0.50 10.1% 3.0%
 Totals  -3.6% 3.0%
 12/31/15 Stocks   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BBY  $30.31 $33.57 $0.00 10.8% -2.5%
 GME  $28.34 $31.23 $0.37 11.5% -2.5%
 IILG  $15.89 $13.76 $0.12 -12.6% -2.5%
 PPC  $22.22 $24.68 $0.00 11.1% -2.5%
 VIAB  $40.93 $38.82 $0.00 -5.1% -2.5%
 Totals  3.1% -2.5%

Just a few weeks to go on 3/31 tranche.  It was looking like a clear winner until HRB fiasco.  BKE  also is struggling, same store sales down almost 9% in February. That is terrible.

MFI Micro

I sold my positions in the first Micro portfolio.  These were never official MFI portfolios.  Of course I sold early as TPUB and VNCE popped post sale.

8/28/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 VNCE  $8.50 $6.60 $0.00 -22.4% -1.1%
 ONE  $1.99 $4.20 $0.00 111.1% -1.1%
 TPUB  $11.60 $8.36 $0.18 -26.4% -1.1%
 LQDT  $7.26 $4.68 $0.00 -35.5% -1.1%
 PERI  $2.45 $2.23 $0.00 -9.0% -1.1%
 Totals  3.6% -1.1%
12/15/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 MGIC  $5.38 $7.05 $0.00 31.0% -2.2%
 BSQR  $6.00 $5.73 $0.00 -4.5% -2.2%
 SPCB  $4.52 $5.06 $0.00 11.9% -2.2%
 WLDN  $8.64 $8.71 $0.00 0.8% -2.2%
 MNDO  $2.58 $2.44 $0.00 -5.7% -2.2%
 Totals               -   6.7% -2.2%
So these have actually worked very well.  I  am actually quite bullish on the open December tranche. SPCB and WLDN have recently used their excess cash to make some accretive purchases.

Warrants/Dividend Stocks

This approach is now also in the black for 2016.  That is quite a comeback.

 Div and Warrants   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   Pct Gain Last Week   Year End 2015 
 BAC-WTA  $4.90 $4.16 $0.00 -15.1% -20.2% -3.6%
 AOD  $7.65 $7.23 $1.23 10.7% 7.7% 15.3%
 JQC  $7.81 $7.73 $0.15 0.9% -4.3% 0.9%
 CSQ  $9.03 $9.20 $1.56 19.2% 14.8% 27.3%
 NTC  $12.06 $12.87 $1.34 17.8% 17.7% 16.1%
 TGONF  $10.24 $8.80 $1.36 -0.8% -5.4% 8.3%
 HIG-WT  $21.24 $36.60 $0.00 72.3% 67.1% 72.9%
 O  $22.83 $58.16 $18.15 234.3% 235.5% 205.7%
 OIBAX  $5.05 $5.56 $2.18 53.3% 51.0% 51.9%
 SJT  $8.79 $5.55 $0.18 -34.8% -43.8% -51.6%
 REXI  $5.59 $5.41 $0.07 -2.1% -13.0% -2.8%
 Totals  3.7% -1.5% 6.2%

Going from -1.5% to +3.7% in a week can give you whiplash.  I did also sell my JPM warrants during the week.  That has been a great trade for me, making 21.2% and 12.5% in two trades. REXI popped 14% at one point yesterday, I do think that is a name to keep your eye on.

Other Names

One stock I was bullish on a couple years ago and got burned was GNW.  I thankfully sold most of my shares between $7 and $13 and did not ride down to $2.  But I have a full position now that I started over the past month with a basis of $2.40.  It has since moved up to $2.80.  This is a stock that is much maligned and I fully get it.  But they are also at about 15% of book value.  If anything goes right at all, this could quickly be a $5 stock - so I have retaken a sizable position.

Have a great weekend.





2 comments:

John Carney said...

Yes another dog with HRB. I was +5.4 to the index now it is +4.4%. No small deal in my mind.
I think some of your doubles may have set you back for now.

My March 31 has CSCO & PBI and they are on the current list. Since I have losses on both I am thinking a rule for me might be to stay with them for another year. Since the list only has three new names for me I might not do a sort except this time.

Do you have an opinion on staying with them for another year?

Marsh_Gerda said...

John - I am going random