In the first week of March Madness. HUge, huge game for Hoosier faithful today, going against arch-rival Kentucky Wildcats. We are three or four point underdogs, but this Indiana team can beat anyone on any given day - just depends on how they shoot and whether they show up on defensive end.
It was a strange week in the markets for me. Tuesday was an absolute mess for my portfolio, down about 2.5%. But we battled back and ended week down just slightly.
MFI Select
It was a bad week to be in the pharma space. Bill Ackman proved that he was not the smartest guy in the room and that the big guys can screw up. VRX started the week at $69.04 and ended at $26.98. I show he had 16 million shares at year end and doubled in February to 30 million shares at $97. So in the week he lost $42 x 30 million shares - I guess that is $1.2 billion.
This angst spread across many pharma stocks, for me LCI and DEPO continue to take hits. It didn't help that LCI announced that the market for their products is soft (Philadelphia generic drug company may revise sales forecast). I do wonder whether the selling is overdone, DEPO and LCI do not have the issues that VRX has.
| 5/6/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CBI | $50.38 | $38.51 | $0.14 | -23.3% | -1.6% |
| PSDV | $4.12 | $2.61 | $0.00 | -36.7% | -1.6% |
| TSRA | $38.94 | $31.09 | $0.80 | -18.1% | -1.6% |
| KORS | $62.24 | $56.97 | $0.00 | -8.5% | -1.6% |
| DEPO | $23.50 | $13.30 | $0.00 | -43.4% | -1.6% |
| Totals | -26.0% | -1.6% | |||
| 8/17/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VDSI | $18.66 | $14.80 | $0.00 | -20.7% | -2.2% |
| SALE | $9.34 | $8.01 | $0.00 | -14.2% | -2.2% |
| CSCO | $28.95 | $28.33 | $0.42 | -0.7% | -2.2% |
| TGNA | $25.30 | $24.14 | $0.42 | -2.9% | -2.2% |
| HSII | $20.14 | $23.63 | $0.26 | 18.6% | -2.2% |
| Totals | -4.0% | -2.2% | |||
| 11/15/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| LCI | $34.01 | $18.50 | - | -45.6% | 0.0% |
| SAVE | $34.48 | $49.32 | - | 43.1% | 0.0% |
| PPC | $18.98 | $25.15 | - | 32.5% | 0.0% |
| VEC | $23.60 | $22.58 | - | -4.3% | 0.0% |
| VNCE | $3.99 | $6.97 | - | 74.7% | 0.0% |
| Totals | 20.1% | 0.0% | |||
| 2/1/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VEC | $19.64 | $22.58 | - | 15.0% | 6.4% |
| QCOM | $45.18 | $51.59 | 0 | 15.3% | 6.4% |
| PERI | $2.45 | $2.14 | - | -12.7% | 6.4% |
| DEPO | $15.34 | $13.30 | - | -13.3% | 6.4% |
| TDC | $24.02 | $26.76 | - | 11.4% | 6.4% |
| Totals | 3.1% | 6.4% | |||
| Category/Tranche | August | November | February | May | Total |
| Initial Investment | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 100,000 |
| Current Tranche | -4.0% | 20.1% | 3.1% | -26.0% | -1.6% |
| Previous Tranche | 11.2% | 69.4% | -14.3% | 18.3% | 62.2% |
| Tranche -2 | 41.4% | 14.2% | 8.5% | 33.0% | 24.3% |
| Tranche -3 | 14.1% | 43.7% | 78.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 72.2% | 234.0% | 70.9% | 16.4% | 98.4% |
| Current Balance | 43,049 | 83,488 | 42,726 | 29,105 | 198,368 |
| R3K Current Tranche | -2.2% | 0.0% | 6.4% | -1.6% | 0.7% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 55.2% | 57.8% | 41.7% | 32.0% | 46.7% |
| R3K Balance | 38,797 | 39,444 | 35,432 | 33,002 | 146,674 |
| Annualized IRR | 16.3% | 43.4% | 18.7% | 5.4% | 25.0% |
PERI also had a major drop post earnings (Perion Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2015 Results) off about 15%. I think they are incredibly cheap.
Then VEC popped very nicely on strong earnings, this also continues to be an under-priced stock in my view (Vectrus Announces Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2015 Results; Issues 2016 Guidance).
| Date | Differential | MFI Value | R3K Value |
| 12/1/2012 | -2.20% | 99,765 | 101,965 |
| 1/1/2013 | -1.78% | 102,798 | 104,575 |
| 2/1/2013 | -2.26% | 102,594 | 104,856 |
| 3/1/2013 | -2.23% | 102,881 | 105,114 |
| 4/1/2013 | -0.43% | 106,804 | 107,234 |
| 5/1/2013 | 2.00% | 110,423 | 108,423 |
| 6/1/2013 | 4.75% | 115,831 | 111,085 |
| 7/1/2013 | 4.29% | 114,888 | 110,597 |
| 8/1/2013 | 6.91% | 124,799 | 117,889 |
| 9/1/2013 | 10.46% | 124,536 | 114,079 |
| 10/1/2013 | 19.67% | 138,655 | 118,990 |
| 11/1/2013 | 19.75% | 143,514 | 123,764 |
| 12/1/2013 | 23.70% | 150,105 | 126,405 |
| 1/1/2014 | 26.63% | 157,138 | 130,503 |
| 2/1/2014 | 24.70% | 150,619 | 125,918 |
| 3/1/2014 | 25.66% | 158,116 | 132,458 |
| 4/1/2014 | 30.38% | 162,991 | 132,616 |
| 5/1/2014 | 29.65% | 162,428 | 132,779 |
| 6/1/2014 | 31.44% | 167,001 | 135,559 |
| 7/1/2014 | 39.23% | 177,971 | 138,740 |
| 8/1/2014 | 31.13% | 167,054 | 135,922 |
| 9/1/2014 | 35.90% | 177,792 | 141,892 |
| 10/1/2014 | 29.38% | 168,321 | 138,944 |
| 11/1/2014 | 26.14% | 168,810 | 142,666 |
| 12/1/2014 | 30.22% | 176,420 | 146,198 |
| 1/1/2015 | 28.17% | 174,306 | 146,140 |
| 2/1/2015 | 20.63% | 162,833 | 142,201 |
| 3/1/2015 | 25.15% | 175,476 | 150,324 |
| 4/1/2015 | 29.95% | 178,565 | 148,612 |
| 5/1/2015 | 37.31% | 186,655 | 149,348 |
| 6/1/2015 | 51.53% | 202,897 | 151,371 |
| 7/1/2015 | 62.69% | 211,437 | 148,743 |
| 8/1/2015 | 40.75% | 192,117 | 151,369 |
| 9/1/2015 | 36.41% | 178,603 | 142,195 |
| 10/1/2015 | 43.12% | 181,175 | 138,052 |
| 11/1/2015 | 69.02% | 217,959 | 148,936 |
| 12/1/2015 | 73.49% | 223,435 | 149,946 |
| 1/1/2016 | 63.33% | 209,514 | 146,186 |
| 2/1/2016 | 49.49% | 187,428 | 137,934 |
| 3/1/2016 | 56.48% | 194,415 | 137,934 |
| Current | 51.69% | 198,368 | 146,674 |
This table shows that March on a relative basis has not been a strong month and that I am down for 2016 (5.2% down officially).
MFI Formula
This approach is up a respectable 3.8% in 2016. My December 31st tranche continues to do well.
| 3/31/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| HRB | $31.99 | $27.37 | $0.80 | -11.9% | -1.7% |
| GME | $37.69 | $30.83 | $1.45 | -14.4% | -1.7% |
| KING | $15.85 | $18.00 | $0.00 | 13.6% | -1.7% |
| NSU | $3.43 | $3.44 | $0.12 | 3.8% | -1.7% |
| PPC | $22.65 | $25.15 | $0.00 | 11.0% | -1.7% |
| Totals | 0.4% | -1.7% | |||
| 7/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BKE | $46.45 | $34.12 | $1.71 | -22.9% | -1.7% |
| CA | $29.34 | $30.74 | $0.75 | 7.3% | -1.7% |
| MSFT | $44.42 | $53.49 | $1.03 | 22.7% | -1.7% |
| QCOM | $62.95 | $51.59 | $1.44 | -15.8% | -1.7% |
| VIAB | $64.75 | $41.46 | $0.80 | -34.7% | -1.7% |
| Totals | -8.7% | -1.7% | |||
| 10/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BKE | $36.83 | $34.12 | $1.48 | -3.3% | 5.6% |
| IQNT | $21.96 | $15.45 | $0.30 | -28.3% | 5.6% |
| QCOM | $53.45 | $51.59 | $0.96 | -1.7% | 5.6% |
| CSCO | $26.37 | $28.33 | $0.42 | 9.0% | 5.6% |
| CA | $27.30 | $30.74 | $0.50 | 14.4% | 5.6% |
| Totals | -2.0% | 5.6% | |||
| 12/31/15 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BBY | $30.31 | $32.52 | $0.28 | 8.2% | -0.1% |
| GME | $28.34 | $30.83 | $0.37 | 10.1% | -0.1% |
| IILG | $15.89 | $13.74 | $0.12 | -12.8% | -0.1% |
| PPC | $22.22 | $25.15 | $0.00 | 13.2% | -0.1% |
| VIAB | $40.93 | $41.46 | $0.00 | 1.3% | -0.1% |
| Totals | 4.0% | -0.1% |
| Category/Tranche | October | January | April | July | Total |
| Initial Investment | 249,820 | 249,939 | 250,180 | 249,728 | 999,667 |
| Current Tranche | -2.0% | 4.0% | 0.4% | -8.7% | -1.5% |
| Previous Tranche | 0.5% | 11.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.0% |
| Tranche -2 | 0.0% | - | - | - | 0.0% |
| MFI Overall Gain | -1.5% | 15.5% | 0.4% | -8.7% | 1.4% |
| Current Balance | 246,027 | 288,590 | 251,230 | 228,106 | 1,013,954 |
| R3K Current Tranche | 5.6% | -0.1% | -1.7% | -1.7% | 0.5% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 5.0% | -0.3% | -1.7% | -1.7% | 0.5% |
| R3K Balance | 262,268 | 249,101 | 245,926 | 245,580 | 1,002,875 |
| Annualized IRR | -1.0% | 12.6% | 0.4% | -11.8% | 1.3% |
| Date | Differential | Value | R3K Value |
| 10/1/2014 | 0.00% | 100,000 | 100,000 |
| 11/1/2014 | 1.63% | 102,288 | 100,658 |
| 12/1/2014 | 0.30% | 101,375 | 101,075 |
| 1/1/2015 | -0.33% | 100,664 | 100,995 |
| 2/1/2015 | 1.67% | 101,281 | 99,611 |
| 3/1/2015 | 3.62% | 106,073 | 102,454 |
| 4/1/2015 | 5.09% | 106,781 | 101,695 |
| 5/1/2015 | 5.78% | 107,859 | 102,077 |
| 6/1/2015 | 5.08% | 108,213 | 103,134 |
| 7/1/2015 | 4.82% | 106,423 | 101,604 |
| 8/1/2015 | 3.71% | 107,112 | 103,404 |
| 9/1/2015 | 4.38% | 101,523 | 97,139 |
| 10/1/2015 | 6.39% | 100,703 | 94,312 |
| 11/1/2015 | 2.93% | 104,835 | 101,907 |
| 12/1/2015 | -3.48% | 99,443 | 102,926 |
| 1/1/2016 | -3.36% | 96,830 | 100,193 |
| 2/1/2016 | -0.72% | 93,797 | 94,319 |
| 3/1/2016 | 4.07% | 98,588 | 94,319 |
| Current | 0.90% | 101,395 | 100,288 |
MFI Micro
This also continues to be a solid portfolio.
| 12/15/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| MGIC | $5.38 | $7.00 | $0.09 | 31.8% | 0.2% |
| BSQR | $6.00 | $5.83 | $0.00 | -2.8% | 0.2% |
| SPCB | $4.52 | $4.65 | $0.00 | 2.9% | 0.2% |
| WLDN | $8.64 | $8.87 | $0.00 | 2.6% | 0.2% |
| MNDO | $2.58 | $2.09 | $0.27 | -8.6% | 0.2% |
| Totals | - | 5.2% | 0.2% |
I think within a year, any of these stocks could pop 50%+ if they show some growth.
Dividend Stocks & Warrants
The announcement by the fed that interest rate hikes are less likely was bad for BAC warrants. But generally good for dividend stocks/bond funds.
| Div and Warrants | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | Pct Gain Last Week | Year End 2015 |
| BAC-WTA | $4.90 | $4.08 | $0.00 | -16.7% | -18.1% | -3.6% |
| AOD | $7.65 | $7.50 | $1.23 | 14.2% | 12.4% | 15.3% |
| JQC | $7.81 | $7.95 | $0.20 | 4.4% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| CSQ | $9.03 | $9.45 | $1.63 | 22.7% | 20.9% | 27.3% |
| NTC | $12.06 | $12.97 | $1.40 | 19.1% | 18.3% | 16.1% |
| TGONF | $10.24 | $9.31 | $1.36 | 4.2% | 3.9% | 8.3% |
| HIG-WT | $21.24 | $38.75 | $0.00 | 82.5% | 76.8% | 72.9% |
| O | $23.07 | $61.24 | $18.03 | 243.7% | 240.8% | 205.7% |
| OIBAX | $5.05 | $5.69 | $2.18 | 55.9% | 54.5% | 51.9% |
| SJT | $8.76 | $5.17 | $0.18 | -38.9% | -41.7% | -51.6% |
| REXI | $5.59 | $6.39 | $0.07 | 15.4% | 10.1% | -2.8% |
| Totals | 6.6% | 4.4% | 6.2% |
So that is a strong move. This approach is up 3.9% for 2016. It doesn't totally show up here as I have added in 2016 substantially to some positions.
| Date Purchased | Stock | Purchase Price | Current/Sold Price | Pct Gain |
| 01/11/16 | BAC-WTA | $5.00 | $4.08 | -18.4% |
| 01/15/16 | CSQ | $8.66 | $9.45 | 11.0% |
| 01/15/16 | AOD | $6.91 | $7.50 | 10.1% |
| 01/15/16 | REXI | $4.79 | $6.39 | 33.4% |
| 01/20/16 | CSQ | $7.95 | $9.45 | 20.9% |
| 01/20/16 | AOD | $6.53 | $7.50 | 16.7% |
| 01/20/16 | REXI | $4.03 | $6.39 | 58.4% |
| 02/01/16 | BAC-WTA | $4.23 | $4.08 | -3.5% |
| 02/03/16 | BAC-WTA | $3.80 | $4.08 | 7.4% |
| 02/08/16 | BAC-WTA | $3.50 | $4.08 | 16.6% |
You can see my REXI adds have really worked well so far.
Well that is about it. Go Hoosiers!
Posts
3 comments:
It is half time. Don't want to go up against the MASTER. I take a silent bet for $10 and take Kentucky. My son will not pay on silent bets either.
beating index by 5.3%
Nice day
2nd half should be tight as well. Johnson out with ankle injury, plus Hartman with bad wrist hurts two key starters. But Indiana is deep and if we stay out of foul trouble and knock down some threes I like IU chances.
The Master has it right again!
Nice day>
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