Saturday, March 19, 2016

Weekend Update 3/18/16

Weekend Update

In the first week of March Madness. HUge, huge game for Hoosier faithful today, going against arch-rival Kentucky Wildcats.  We are three or four point underdogs, but this Indiana team can beat anyone on any given day - just depends on how they shoot and whether they show up on defensive end.

It was a strange week in the markets for me.  Tuesday was an absolute mess for my portfolio, down about 2.5%. But we battled back and ended week down just slightly.

MFI Select

It was a bad week to be in the pharma space. Bill Ackman proved that he was not the smartest guy in the room and that the big guys can screw up. VRX started the week at $69.04 and ended at $26.98.   I show he had 16 million shares at year end and doubled in February to 30 million shares at $97.  So in the week he lost $42 x 30 million shares - I guess that is $1.2 billion.

This angst spread across many pharma stocks, for me LCI and DEPO continue to take hits.  It didn't help that LCI announced that the market for their products is soft (Philadelphia generic drug company may revise sales forecast).  I do wonder whether the selling is overdone, DEPO and LCI do not have the issues that VRX has.

5/6/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CBI  $50.38 $38.51 $0.14 -23.3% -1.6%
 PSDV  $4.12 $2.61 $0.00 -36.7% -1.6%
 TSRA  $38.94 $31.09 $0.80 -18.1% -1.6%
 KORS  $62.24 $56.97 $0.00 -8.5% -1.6%
 DEPO  $23.50 $13.30 $0.00 -43.4% -1.6%
 Totals  -26.0% -1.6%
8/17/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 VDSI  $18.66 $14.80 $0.00 -20.7% -2.2%
 SALE  $9.34 $8.01 $0.00 -14.2% -2.2%
 CSCO  $28.95 $28.33 $0.42 -0.7% -2.2%
 TGNA  $25.30 $24.14 $0.42 -2.9% -2.2%
 HSII  $20.14 $23.63 $0.26 18.6% -2.2%
 Totals  -4.0% -2.2%
11/15/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 LCI  $34.01 $18.50               -   -45.6% 0.0%
 SAVE  $34.48 $49.32               -   43.1% 0.0%
 PPC  $18.98 $25.15               -   32.5% 0.0%
 VEC  $23.60 $22.58               -   -4.3% 0.0%
 VNCE  $3.99 $6.97               -   74.7% 0.0%
 Totals  20.1% 0.0%
2/1/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 VEC  $19.64 $22.58               -   15.0% 6.4%
 QCOM  $45.18 $51.59                0 15.3% 6.4%
 PERI  $2.45 $2.14               -   -12.7% 6.4%
 DEPO  $15.34 $13.30               -   -13.3% 6.4%
 TDC  $24.02 $26.76               -   11.4% 6.4%
 Totals  3.1% 6.4%
 Category/Tranche   August   November   February   May   Total 
 Initial Investment         25,000          25,000       25,000        25,000      100,000
 Current Tranche  -4.0% 20.1% 3.1% -26.0% -1.6%
 Previous Tranche  11.2% 69.4% -14.3% 18.3% 62.2%
 Tranche -2  41.4% 14.2% 8.5% 33.0% 24.3%
 Tranche -3  14.1% 43.7% 78.3% 0.0% 0.0%
 MFI Overall Gain  72.2% 234.0% 70.9% 16.4% 98.4%
 Current Balance         43,049          83,488       42,726        29,105      198,368
 R3K Current Tranche  -2.2% 0.0% 6.4% -1.6% 0.7%
 R3K Overall Gain  55.2% 57.8% 41.7% 32.0% 46.7%
 R3K Balance         38,797          39,444       35,432        33,002      146,674
 Annualized IRR  16.3% 43.4% 18.7% 5.4% 25.0%


PERI also had a major drop post earnings (Perion Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2015 Results) off about 15%.  I think they are incredibly cheap.

Then VEC popped very nicely on strong earnings, this also continues to be an under-priced stock in my view (Vectrus Announces Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2015 Results; Issues 2016 Guidance).

 Date   Differential   MFI Value   R3K Value 
12/1/2012 -2.20%          99,765            101,965
1/1/2013 -1.78%        102,798            104,575
2/1/2013 -2.26%        102,594            104,856
3/1/2013 -2.23%        102,881            105,114
4/1/2013 -0.43%        106,804            107,234
5/1/2013 2.00%        110,423            108,423
6/1/2013 4.75%        115,831            111,085
7/1/2013 4.29%        114,888            110,597
8/1/2013 6.91%        124,799            117,889
9/1/2013 10.46%        124,536            114,079
10/1/2013 19.67%        138,655            118,990
11/1/2013 19.75%        143,514            123,764
12/1/2013 23.70%        150,105            126,405
1/1/2014 26.63%        157,138            130,503
2/1/2014 24.70%        150,619            125,918
3/1/2014 25.66%        158,116            132,458
4/1/2014 30.38%        162,991            132,616
5/1/2014 29.65%        162,428            132,779
6/1/2014 31.44%        167,001            135,559
7/1/2014 39.23%        177,971            138,740
8/1/2014 31.13%        167,054            135,922
9/1/2014 35.90%        177,792            141,892
10/1/2014 29.38%        168,321            138,944
11/1/2014 26.14%        168,810            142,666
12/1/2014 30.22%        176,420            146,198
1/1/2015 28.17%        174,306            146,140
2/1/2015 20.63%        162,833            142,201
3/1/2015 25.15%        175,476            150,324
4/1/2015 29.95%        178,565            148,612
5/1/2015 37.31%        186,655            149,348
6/1/2015 51.53%        202,897            151,371
7/1/2015 62.69%        211,437            148,743
8/1/2015 40.75%        192,117            151,369
9/1/2015 36.41%        178,603            142,195
10/1/2015 43.12%        181,175            138,052
11/1/2015 69.02%        217,959            148,936
12/1/2015 73.49%        223,435            149,946
1/1/2016 63.33%        209,514            146,186
2/1/2016 49.49%        187,428            137,934
3/1/2016 56.48%        194,415            137,934
Current 51.69%        198,368            146,674

This table shows that March on a relative basis has not been a strong month and that I am down for 2016 (5.2% down officially).

MFI Formula

This approach is up a respectable 3.8% in 2016. My December 31st tranche continues to do well.

3/31/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 HRB  $31.99 $27.37 $0.80 -11.9% -1.7%
 GME  $37.69 $30.83 $1.45 -14.4% -1.7%
 KING  $15.85 $18.00 $0.00 13.6% -1.7%
 NSU  $3.43 $3.44 $0.12 3.8% -1.7%
 PPC  $22.65 $25.15 $0.00 11.0% -1.7%
 Totals  0.4% -1.7%
7/1/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BKE  $46.45 $34.12 $1.71 -22.9% -1.7%
 CA  $29.34 $30.74 $0.75 7.3% -1.7%
 MSFT  $44.42 $53.49 $1.03 22.7% -1.7%
 QCOM  $62.95 $51.59 $1.44 -15.8% -1.7%
 VIAB  $64.75 $41.46 $0.80 -34.7% -1.7%
 Totals  -8.7% -1.7%
10/1/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BKE  $36.83 $34.12 $1.48 -3.3% 5.6%
 IQNT  $21.96 $15.45 $0.30 -28.3% 5.6%
 QCOM  $53.45 $51.59 $0.96 -1.7% 5.6%
 CSCO  $26.37 $28.33 $0.42 9.0% 5.6%
 CA  $27.30 $30.74 $0.50 14.4% 5.6%
 Totals  -2.0% 5.6%
 12/31/15 Stocks   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BBY  $30.31 $32.52 $0.28 8.2% -0.1%
 GME  $28.34 $30.83 $0.37 10.1% -0.1%
 IILG  $15.89 $13.74 $0.12 -12.8% -0.1%
 PPC  $22.22 $25.15 $0.00 13.2% -0.1%
 VIAB  $40.93 $41.46 $0.00 1.3% -0.1%
 Totals  4.0% -0.1%

 Category/Tranche   October   January   April   July   Total 
 Initial Investment      249,820        249,939     250,180      249,728         999,667
 Current Tranche  -2.0% 4.0% 0.4% -8.7% -1.5%
 Previous Tranche  0.5% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0%
 Tranche -2  0.0%                 -                 -                  -   0.0%
 MFI Overall Gain  -1.5% 15.5% 0.4% -8.7% 1.4%
 Current Balance      246,027        288,590     251,230      228,106      1,013,954
 R3K Current Tranche  5.6% -0.1% -1.7% -1.7% 0.5%
 R3K Overall Gain  5.0% -0.3% -1.7% -1.7% 0.5%
 R3K Balance      262,268        249,101     245,926      245,580      1,002,875
 Annualized IRR  -1.0% 12.6% 0.4% -11.8% 1.3%

 Date   Differential   Value   R3K Value 
10/1/2014 0.00%        100,000            100,000
11/1/2014 1.63%        102,288            100,658
12/1/2014 0.30%        101,375            101,075
1/1/2015 -0.33%        100,664            100,995
2/1/2015 1.67%        101,281              99,611
3/1/2015 3.62%        106,073            102,454
4/1/2015 5.09%        106,781            101,695
5/1/2015 5.78%        107,859            102,077
6/1/2015 5.08%        108,213            103,134
7/1/2015 4.82%        106,423            101,604
8/1/2015 3.71%        107,112            103,404
9/1/2015 4.38%        101,523              97,139
10/1/2015 6.39%        100,703              94,312
11/1/2015 2.93%        104,835            101,907
12/1/2015 -3.48%          99,443            102,926
1/1/2016 -3.36%          96,830            100,193
2/1/2016 -0.72%          93,797              94,319
3/1/2016 4.07%          98,588              94,319
Current 0.90%        101,395            100,288

MFI Micro

This also continues to be a solid portfolio.

12/15/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 MGIC  $5.38 $7.00 $0.09 31.8% 0.2%
 BSQR  $6.00 $5.83 $0.00 -2.8% 0.2%
 SPCB  $4.52 $4.65 $0.00 2.9% 0.2%
 WLDN  $8.64 $8.87 $0.00 2.6% 0.2%
 MNDO  $2.58 $2.09 $0.27 -8.6% 0.2%
 Totals               -   5.2% 0.2%
I think within a year, any of these stocks could pop 50%+ if they show some growth.

Dividend Stocks & Warrants

The announcement by the fed that interest rate hikes are less likely was bad for BAC warrants. But generally good for dividend stocks/bond funds.

 Div and Warrants   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   Pct Gain Last Week   Year End 2015 
 BAC-WTA  $4.90 $4.08 $0.00 -16.7% -18.1% -3.6%
 AOD  $7.65 $7.50 $1.23 14.2% 12.4% 15.3%
 JQC  $7.81 $7.95 $0.20 4.4% 2.6% 0.9%
 CSQ  $9.03 $9.45 $1.63 22.7% 20.9% 27.3%
 NTC  $12.06 $12.97 $1.40 19.1% 18.3% 16.1%
 TGONF  $10.24 $9.31 $1.36 4.2% 3.9% 8.3%
 HIG-WT  $21.24 $38.75 $0.00 82.5% 76.8% 72.9%
 O  $23.07 $61.24 $18.03 243.7% 240.8% 205.7%
 OIBAX  $5.05 $5.69 $2.18 55.9% 54.5% 51.9%
 SJT  $8.76 $5.17 $0.18 -38.9% -41.7% -51.6%
 REXI  $5.59 $6.39 $0.07 15.4% 10.1% -2.8%
 Totals  6.6% 4.4% 6.2%

So that is a strong move.  This approach is up 3.9% for 2016.  It doesn't totally show up here as I have added in 2016 substantially to some positions.

Date Purchased Stock Purchase Price Current/Sold Price Pct Gain
01/11/16 BAC-WTA $5.00 $4.08 -18.4%
01/15/16 CSQ $8.66 $9.45 11.0%
01/15/16 AOD $6.91 $7.50 10.1%
01/15/16 REXI $4.79 $6.39 33.4%
01/20/16 CSQ $7.95 $9.45 20.9%
01/20/16 AOD $6.53 $7.50 16.7%
01/20/16 REXI $4.03 $6.39 58.4%
02/01/16 BAC-WTA $4.23 $4.08 -3.5%
02/03/16 BAC-WTA $3.80 $4.08 7.4%
02/08/16 BAC-WTA $3.50 $4.08 16.6%

You can see my REXI adds have really worked well so far.

Well that is about it.  Go Hoosiers!

3 comments:

John Carney said...

It is half time. Don't want to go up against the MASTER. I take a silent bet for $10 and take Kentucky. My son will not pay on silent bets either.

beating index by 5.3%

Nice day

Marsh_Gerda said...

2nd half should be tight as well. Johnson out with ankle injury, plus Hartman with bad wrist hurts two key starters. But Indiana is deep and if we stay out of foul trouble and knock down some threes I like IU chances.

John Carney said...

The Master has it right again!

Nice day>