Friday, January 01, 2016

Weekend Update - Happy New Year - 2016!

Happy New Year!!!

It is around 5:20 am, January 1st 2016. I hope everyone had a happy & safe New Year's Eve.  I did doze in and out, but was awake for Ryan Seacrest and then Jimmy Buffett (worth a surprising $400  million).

For this blog, today is always a very busy day.  I always "reset" my spreadsheets today.  I track a lot of YTD info. I also will have to reconstitute the MFI Index. Then a tracking portfolio also hits a year.

So I have my coffee. My computer is plugged in so battery stays charged. I am using a wireless mouse instead of track pad. You get the picture.

The Numbers


  • My portfolio  overall ended up 5.3% (last year I was down 9.6% with the GTAT and GNW meltdowns).
  • My MFI Index was down 9.0%.
  • The Russell 3000 was up 0.4%.
  • My MFI Select was up 20.7%.
  • My MFI Formula was down 3.8%.


Annual Inception to Date
Year Russell MFI Russell ITD MFI ITD
2006 11.40% 15.03% 11.40% 15.03%
2007 4.09% -6.69% 15.96% 7.34%
2008 -37.05% -37.97% -27.00% -33.42%
2009 32.51% 45.18% -3.27% -3.34%
2010 18.38% 22.77% 14.50% 18.67%
2011 -0.56% -10.47% 13.87% 6.25%
2012 16.43% 9.70% 32.57% 16.56%
2013 33.01% 51.70% 76.34% 76.82%
2014 12.26% 12.07% 97.95% 98.15%
2015 0.38% -8.95% 98.33% 89.37%


A bumpy year at best.  With my being down 10% in 2014 and up just 5% this year, it does show that with all this effort that I am not doing particularly well.  That is frustrating.  Ok, I went back.

  • 2013: up 45%
  • 2012: up 18%
I feel better, though a bit of the "what have you done for me lately syndrome".

MFI Index

So here are the fifty stocks from my index and how they did in 2015:

Stock Start 30-Sep Current YTD Change 4th Q Chg
  ADMS       17.37         16.74          28.32 63.0% 69.2%
  AFOP       14.51         17.09          15.16 4.5% -11.3%
  ANIK       40.74         31.83          38.16 -6.3% 19.9%
  APOL       34.11         11.06            7.67 -77.5% -30.7%
  AGX       33.64         34.68          33.10 -1.6% -4.6%
  AVID       14.21            7.96            7.29 -48.7% -8.4%
  AWRE         4.54            3.35            3.26 -28.2% -2.7%
  BCOR       13.85         13.77            9.80 -29.2% -28.8%
  BKE       52.52         40.43          34.47 -34.4% -14.7%
  CA       30.45         28.05          29.56 -2.9% 5.4%
  CSCO       27.82         26.86          27.98 0.6% 4.2%
  COH       37.56         29.94          34.08 -9.3% 13.8%
  DLX       62.25         56.64          55.74 -10.5% -1.6%
  DEPO       16.11         18.85          18.13 12.5% -3.8%
  EBIX       16.99         25.19          33.09 94.8% 31.4%
  FLR       60.63         42.98          48.06 -20.7% 11.8%
  GME       33.80         42.29          29.48 -12.8% -30.3%
  GORO         3.38            2.62            1.78 -47.3% -32.1%
  ONE         4.21            1.97            3.24 -23.0% 64.5%
  IQNT       19.63         22.78          18.37 -6.4% -19.4%
  IDCC       52.90         51.20          49.84 -5.8% -2.7%
  IILG       20.89         18.60          16.09 -23.0% -13.5%
  ITRN       22.04         21.22          19.76 -10.3% -6.9%
  KING       15.36         14.48          18.82 22.5% 30.0%
  LCI       42.88         41.52          40.12 -6.4% -3.4%
  LFVN         9.10            5.67            9.52 4.6% 67.9%
  LQDT         8.17            7.39            6.50 -20.4% -12.0%
  MSB       17.28         12.67            5.20 -69.9% -59.0%
  NHTC       11.45         32.77          33.66 194.0% 2.7%
  NSR       27.80         27.21          23.97 -13.8% -11.9%
  NUS       43.70         42.33          39.29 -10.1% -7.2%
  PDLI         7.71            5.18            4.14 -46.3% 0.0%
  PFMT         6.65            2.42            1.79 -73.1% -26.0%
  PETS       14.37         16.44          17.85 24.2% 8.6%
  PBI       24.37         20.41          21.40 -12.2% 4.8%
  RPXC       13.78         13.72          11.00 -20.2% -19.8%
  SPOK       17.36         16.84          18.82 8.4% 11.8%
  STRA       74.28         54.97          60.12 -19.1% 9.4%
  RGR       34.63         59.54          60.71 75.3% 2.0%
  TTWO       28.03         28.73          34.84 24.3% 21.3%
  TDC       43.68         28.96          26.42 -39.5% -8.8%
  TZOO       12.62            8.27            8.37 -33.7% 1.2%
  TPUB       22.90            8.19            9.92 -56.7% 21.1%
  UBNT       29.64         33.89          31.69 6.9% -6.5%
  UIS       29.48         11.90          11.05 -62.5% -7.1%
  USNA     102.59       134.03        127.75 24.5% -4.7%
  VEC       27.40         22.04          20.89 -23.8% -5.2%
  VIAB       75.25         44.28          42.69 -43.3% -3.6%
  WTW       24.84            6.38          22.80 -8.2% 257.4%
  WILN         2.99            1.94            1.48 -50.5% -23.7%
Total     19,816       17,853        18,042 -8.9% 1.1%

Just skimming up  and down the list - both YTD and QTD, you can see this approach is not for the faint of heart (note the YE prices should include dividends during 2015).

MFI Select

While my 20.7% is a great result, it was largely due to NHTC being in two of the tranches for most of the year. Not that I am complaining,  but I am just trying to  explain the difference of my results versus the -8.9% shown above.  Just a couple lucky picks.  For the record, I will show all my MFI tranches going back to my 2012 reboot:

8/15/12 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
DLB $34.43 $33.04 $4.00 7.6% 22.1%
KFY $13.98 $18.95 $0.00 35.6% 22.1%
MSFT $30.19 $31.92 $0.92 8.8% 22.1%
NSU $3.62 $3.33 $0.12 -4.6% 22.1%
UIS $19.96 $24.52 $0.00 22.8% 22.1%
Totals 14.1% 22.1%
11/15/12 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
AAPL $537.62 $527.28 $8.75 -0.3% 36.7%
ABC $40.21 $69.23 $0.86 74.3% 36.7%
LPS $23.89 $34.26 $0.40 45.1% 36.7%
VIAB $49.12 $80.94 $1.15 67.1% 36.7%
WU $12.77 $16.40 $0.50 32.3% 36.7%
Totals 43.7% 36.7%
2/1/13 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
AAPL $450.60 $500.66 $8.75 13.1% 21.1%
GA $6.10 $11.01 $0.65 91.2% 21.1%
STRZA $16.06 $27.98 $0.00 74.2% 21.1%
CA $25.07 $32.08 $1.00 32.0% 21.1%
NUS $41.94 $116.59 $1.20 180.8% 21.1%
Totals 78.3% 21.1%
5/6/2013 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
KLIC $11.40 $14.44 $0.00 26.7% 18.9%
CYOU $29.24 $28.02 $0.00 -4.2% 18.9%
RDA $9.74 $16.79 $0.10 73.5% 18.9%
NVDA $13.85 $18.43 $0.32 35.4% 18.9%
CF $183.97 $243.22 $2.80 33.7% 18.9%
Totals 33.0% 18.9%
8/15/2013 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CF $187.26 $247.43 $4.50 34.5% 19.4%
FLR $66.06 $73.03 $0.53 11.4% 19.4%
AGX $15.60 $36.71 $0.75 140.1% 19.4%
KLIC $11.29 $14.26 $0.00 26.3% 19.4%
RPXC $15.92 $15.09 $0.00 -5.2% 19.4%
Totals 41.4% 19.4%
11/15/13 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
AVG $17.22 $19.21 $0.00 11.6% 14.5%
ATVI $17.71 $20.10 $0.20 14.6% 14.5%
GA $9.04 $11.90 $0.23 34.2% 14.5%
RPXC $17.04 $13.91 $0.00 -18.4% 14.5%
SYNA $48.01 $61.90 $0.00 28.9% 14.5%
Totals 14.2% 14.5%
2/1/14 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
ATVI $17.13 $20.90 $0.20 23.1% 12.9%
KLAC $61.47 $61.47 $18.40 29.9% 12.9%
RPXC $16.22 $12.35 $0.00 -23.9% 12.9%
SNDK $69.55 $75.91 $0.83 10.3% 12.9%
WNR $39.11 $37.13 $3.04 2.7% 12.9%
Totals 8.5% 12.9%
5/6/2014 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
AVG $19.57 $23.27 $0.00 18.9% 12.9%
CA $29.54 $31.41 $1.00 9.7% 12.9%
CSCO $22.79 $28.89 $0.78 30.2% 12.9%
NSR $25.82 $30.69 $0.00 18.9% 12.9%
RCII $28.78 $31.77 $0.94 13.7% 12.9%
Totals 18.3% 12.9%
8/15/2014 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CSCO $24.40 $28.95 $0.80 21.9% 8.8%
AGX $36.71 $40.69 $0.70 12.7% 8.8%
ITRN $21.32 $25.11 $0.87 21.9% 8.8%
BRCD $9.34 $10.15 $0.15 10.3% 8.8%
CBI $58.25 $51.70 $0.21 -10.9% 8.8%
Totals 11.2% 8.8%
11/15/2014 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
FLR $64.80 $47.46 $0.84 -25.5% 0.8%
IPCM $38.45 $80.03 $0.00 108.1% 0.8%
VIAB $72.29 $50.69 $1.46 -27.9% 0.8%
NHTC $12.19 $51.46 $0.06 322.6% 0.8%
AWRE $4.40 $3.07 $0.00 -30.2% 0.8%
Totals 69.4% 0.8%
2/1/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
VEC $28.00 $20.89 $0.00 -25.4% 3.2%
QCOM $62.73 $49.99 $1.86 -17.4% 3.2%
VIAB $63.91 $41.16 $1.53 -33.2% 3.2%
UIS $22.03 $11.05 $0.00 -49.8% 3.2%
NHTC $12.44 $33.53 $0.05 169.9% 3.2%
Totals 8.8% 3.2%
5/6/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CBI $50.38 $38.99 $0.14 -22.3% -1.9%
PSDV $4.12 $4.82 $0.00 16.9% -1.9%
TSRA $38.94 $30.01 $0.60 -21.4% -1.9%
KORS $62.24 $40.06 $0.00 -35.6% -1.9%
DEPO $23.50 $18.13 $0.00 -22.9% -1.9%
Totals -17.1% -1.9%
8/17/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
VDSI $18.66 $16.73 $0.00 -10.4% -2.5%
SALE $9.34 $9.92 $0.00 6.2% -2.5%
CSCO $28.95 $27.16 $0.21 -5.5% -2.5%
TGNA $25.30 $25.52 $0.28 2.0% -2.5%
HSII $20.14 $27.22 $0.13 35.8% -2.5%
Totals 5.6% -2.5%
11/15/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
LCI $34.01 $40.12               -   18.0% -0.3%
SAVE $34.48 $39.85               -   15.6% -0.3%
PPC $18.98 $22.09               -   16.4% -0.3%
VEC $23.60 $20.89               -   -11.5% -0.3%
VNCE $3.99 $4.58               -   14.8% -0.3%
Totals 10.6% -0.3%


Category/Tranche August November February May Total
Initial Investment        25,000          25,000       25,000        25,000      100,000
Current Tranche 5.6% 10.6% 8.8% -17.1% 2.2%
Previous Tranche 11.2% 69.4% 8.5% 18.3% 44.7%
Tranche -2 41.4% 14.2% 78.3% 33.0% 41.7%
Tranche -3 14.1% 43.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
MFI Overall Gain 89.4% 207.8% 110.4% 30.5% 109.5%
Current Balance        47,361          76,940       52,597        32,616      209,514
R3K Current Tranche -2.5% -0.3% 3.2% -1.9% -0.4%
R3K Overall Gain 54.7% 57.3% 41.1% 31.6% 46.2%
R3K Balance        38,679          39,324       35,281        32,902      146,186
Annualized IRR 20.8% 43.2% 29.1% 10.5% 27.8%
Date Differential MFI Value R3K Value
12/1/2012 -2.20%          99,765            101,965
1/1/2013 -1.78%        102,798            104,575
2/1/2013 -2.26%        102,594            104,856
3/1/2013 -2.23%        102,881            105,114
4/1/2013 -0.43%        106,804            107,234
5/1/2013 2.00%        110,423            108,423
6/1/2013 4.75%        115,831            111,085
7/1/2013 4.29%        114,888            110,597
8/1/2013 6.91%        124,799            117,889
9/1/2013 10.46%        124,536            114,079
10/1/2013 19.67%        138,655            118,990
11/1/2013 19.75%        143,514            123,764
12/1/2013 23.70%        150,105            126,405
1/1/2014 26.63%        157,138            130,503
2/1/2014 24.70%        150,619            125,918
3/1/2014 25.66%        158,116            132,458
4/1/2014 30.38%        162,991            132,616
5/1/2014 29.65%        162,428            132,779
6/1/2014 31.44%        167,001            135,559
7/1/2014 39.23%        177,971            138,740
8/1/2014 31.13%        167,054            135,922
9/1/2014 35.90%        177,792            141,892
10/1/2014 29.38%        168,321            138,944
11/1/2014 26.14%        168,810            142,666
12/1/2014 30.22%        176,420            146,198
1/1/2015 28.17%        174,306            146,140
2/1/2015 20.63%        162,833            142,201
3/1/2015 25.15%        175,476            150,324
4/1/2015 29.95%        178,565            148,612
5/1/2015 37.31%        186,655            149,348
6/1/2015 51.53%        202,897            151,371
7/1/2015 62.69%        211,437            148,743
8/1/2015 40.75%        192,117            151,369
9/1/2015 36.41%        178,603            142,195
10/1/2015 43.12%        181,175            138,052
11/1/2015 69.02%        217,959            148,936
12/1/2015 73.49%        223,435            149,946
1/1/2016 63.33%        209,514            146,186

In my month by month table, you can see December was not a great month going from 223k to 209k.

MFI Formula

The struggle has been more pronounced over here - down close to 4% on the year felt more in line with  MFI overall underperformance. Again, I show all the tranches since I started this approach in September 2014.  Including my new born tranche of yesterday.

10/1/2014 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
BAH $23.52 $26.21 $0.50 13.5% -0.6%
BKE $45.55 $36.97 $3.68 -10.8% -0.6%
CA $27.87 $27.30 $1.00 1.5% -0.6%
GME $41.70 $41.21 $1.41 2.2% -0.6%
NUS $44.56 $41.28 $1.40 -4.2% -0.6%
Totals 0.5% -0.6%
12/31/14 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CA $30.83 $29.26 $1.00 -1.8% -0.3%
CSCO $28.36 $27.70 $0.82 0.6% -0.3%
RGR $34.81 $60.08 $1.10 75.7% -0.3%
GME $34.21 $28.71 $1.44 -11.9% -0.3%
IQNT $19.87 $17.78 $0.60 -7.5% -0.3%
Totals 11.0% -0.3%
3/31/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
HRB $31.99 $33.31 $0.60 6.0% -2.0%
GME $37.69 $28.04 $1.08 -22.7% -2.0%
KING $15.85 $17.65 $0.00 11.3% -2.0%
NSU $3.43 $2.71 $0.12 -17.5% -2.0%
PPC $22.65 $22.09 $0.00 -2.5% -2.0%
Totals -5.1% -2.0%
7/1/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
BKE $46.45 $30.78 $0.46 -32.7% -2.0%
CA $29.34 $28.56 $0.50 -1.0% -2.0%
MSFT $44.42 $55.48 $0.67 26.4% -2.0%
QCOM $62.95 $49.99 $0.96 -19.1% -2.0%
VIAB $64.75 $41.16 $0.80 -35.2% -2.0%
Totals -12.3% -2.0%
10/1/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
BKE $36.83 $30.78 $0.23 -15.8% 5.2%
IQNT $21.96 $17.77 $0.15 -18.4% 5.2%
QCOM $53.45 $49.99 $0.48 -5.6% 5.2%
CSCO $26.37 $27.16 $0.21 3.8% 5.2%
CA $27.30 $28.56 $0.25 5.5% 5.2%
Totals -6.1% 5.2%
12/31/15 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
BBY $30.31 $30.45 $0.00 0.5% -0.4%
GME $28.34 $28.04 $0.00 -1.1% -0.4%
IILG $15.89 $15.61 $0.00 -1.8% -0.4%
PPC $22.22 $22.09 $0.00 -0.6% -0.4%
VIAB $40.93 $41.16 $0.00 0.6% -0.4%
Totals -0.5% -0.4%
Category/Tranche October January April July Total
Initial Investment      249,820        249,939     250,180      249,728         999,667
Current Tranche -6.1% -0.5% -5.1% -12.3% -6.0%
Previous Tranche 0.5% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0%
Tranche -2 0.0%                 -                 -                  -   0.0%
MFI Overall Gain -5.7% 10.5% -5.1% -12.3% -3.1%
Current Balance      235,670        276,161     237,483      218,981         968,295
R3K Current Tranche 5.2% -0.4% -2.0% -2.0% 0.2%
R3K Overall Gain 4.7% -0.6% -2.0% -2.0% 0.2%
R3K Balance      261,469        248,337     245,184      244,839         999,829
Annualized IRR -4.5% 10.5% -6.7% -22.8% -3.6%
Certainly do not like the annualized IRR of -3.6% in bottom corner.

Date Differential Value R3K Value
10/1/2014 0.00%        100,000            100,000
11/1/2014 1.63%        102,288            100,658
12/1/2014 0.30%        101,375            101,075
1/1/2015 -0.33%        100,664            100,995
2/1/2015 1.67%        101,281              99,611
3/1/2015 3.62%        106,073            102,454
4/1/2015 5.09%        106,781            101,695
5/1/2015 5.78%        107,859            102,077
6/1/2015 5.08%        108,213            103,134
7/1/2015 4.82%        106,423            101,604
8/1/2015 3.71%        107,112            103,404
9/1/2015 4.38%        101,523              97,139
10/1/2015 6.39%        100,703              94,312
11/1/2015 2.93%        104,835            101,907
12/1/2015 -3.48%          99,443            102,926
1/1/2016 -3.36%          96,830            100,193

MFI Micro

These two tranches are actually doing surprisingly well. But they are volatile.  I could be down 10% next month.

8/28/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
VNCE $8.50 $4.58 $0.00 -46.1% 2.5%
ONE $1.99 $3.24 $0.00 62.8% 2.5%
TPUB $11.60 $9.22 $0.18 -19.0% 2.5%
LQDT $7.26 $6.50 $0.00 -10.5% 2.5%
PERI $2.45 $3.63 $0.00 48.2% 2.5%
Totals 7.1% 2.5%
12/15/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
MGIC $5.38 $5.53 $0.00 2.8% -0.1%
BSQR $6.00 $6.09 $0.00 1.5% -0.1%
SPCB $4.52 $5.22 $0.00 15.5% -0.1%
WLDN $8.64 $8.38 $0.00 -3.0% -0.1%
MNDO $2.58 $2.53 $0.00 -2.0% -0.1%
Totals              -   2.9% -0.1%

Dividends & Warrants

I will make an effort in 2016 to get a YTD figure on this portfolio.  I have not tracked as  closely as MFI, as this is after all the MFI Diary.

Div and Warrants Start Current Dividend Pct Gain Pct Gain Last Week
BAC-WTA $6.04 $5.80 $0.00 -3.9% -0.3%
AOD $8.08 $7.69 $1.64 15.4% 16.0%
JQC $7.82 $7.82 $0.05 0.7% 0.0%
CSQ $9.32 $9.91 $1.96 27.4% 29.3%
NTC $12.06 $12.68 $1.24 15.5% 14.9%
TGONF $10.24 $9.90 $1.19 8.3% 4.0%
HIG-WT $21.24 $36.72 $0.00 72.9% 71.4%
O $22.72 $51.95 $17.82 207.1% 203.4%
OIBAX $5.04 $5.52 $2.14 51.9% 52.3%
SJT $8.82 $4.19 $0.13 -51.0% -43.5%
REXI $6.35 $6.16 $0.05 -2.3% -26.7%
Totals 6.3% 5.7%
Certainly SJT was the disaster pick here. Even with a double down off over 50%. REXI, on the other hand, really shot up this past week.

Other Stocks

In full disclosure, I own a few other positions that I view as temporary. GNW (blech), DEPO (just got too cheap with the bio tech fall out in Q4 and WILN (small position, had a limit price of $1.35 last week  and it kept brushing up against it).

Have a great  day everyone.

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