Saturday, January 23, 2016

Final Week of 2/1/15 Tranche

Final Week

Well as we turn the corner on January and start looking towards February, my MFI select tranche of February 2015 is in the final week.  This has been my worst tranche since the reboot in August of 2012 - down 15.9% right now.  Actually, that would make it my first negative tranche (but most likely not my last).

Oddly, at year end this tranche was up 8.8% - so just in a short month it has gone from  +8.8% to -15.9%.  That is serious whiplash.  Of course NHTC has been the problem child.  It was up 169% and now it is up 59%.  Losing 110% and then spreading over 5 stocks is over 20 points right there.  Still hard to be too mad at NHTC.  The other 4 stocks have been in the negatives for most of their year.

2/1/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
VEC $28.00 $19.26 $0.00 -31.2% -4.1%
QCOM $62.73 $48.07 $1.86 -20.4% -4.1%
VIAB $63.91 $43.21 $1.53 -30.0% -4.1%
UIS $22.03 $9.53 $0.00 -56.7% -4.1%
NHTC $12.44 $19.69 $0.05 58.7% -4.1%
Totals -15.9% -4.1%

Pretty thorough stomping of my tranche by the index.  This of course is not unusual. My MFI tracking portfolio of 50 stocks that corresponds with this tranche is down 14.3%.  The ten stocks I didn't pick are down 20.6%.  It has just been a tough slog.

New Picks

Many of these names are still  on the list. So I would have a chance to practice my preaching of "the dogs of MFI approach".  

  • VEC - I bought them as recently as 11/15/15. They are down 18% since then - you could certainly argue that if I liked them at $23.60, I should love them at $19.26.
  • QCOM - In these turbulent times, I see nothing wrong with old cap tech, that is cheap,pays a nice dividend and has a ton of cash. Check, check,check.
  • VIAB - a lot of rumors swirling around this name as Redstone may step down.  Not old tech, but in the much hated media space, but cheap and with a good dividend.

Then I hold two MFI stocks as discretionary picks right now:

  • DEPO - seems like growth at a reasonable price.  I can see them getting back to $25.
  • PERI - smaller cap stock,  tons of cash and just made a savvy purchase. They could be a $6 stock.

So that could be my five names just bing, bam boom. May very well be. Looking at the official top 50 list, I like:

  • BRCD
  • HPQ
  • LCI
  • TDC
  • CSCO

Then from my own work, CBI.  That is 11 names - still  a week to go, but my five could certainly from from those names.

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