Well, this week I felt like I was going over the falls in a barrel. I actually am not in any mood to write my blog this morning, but here I am. For better or worse, it is the MFI diary.
And right now, to be clear, it is worse. Red ink everywhere. Intellectually, I am trying to take the long term view. For the most part, I do not need the $ I have in the markets. Each year for the next 5, I will likely be buying more stocks each year than selling. So cheaper stocks is net, net a good thing for me.
But then the emotional side of my brain says, what if it keeps going down? What in this is 1929? Panic! Preserve capital.
Overview
| Component | YTD |
| Overall | -10.03% |
| Select | -13.86% |
| Formula | -8.62% |
| Micro | -8.77% |
| MFI Index | -11.44% |
| R3K | -8.49% |
| Dividend | -7.97% |
So, for me and MFI full correction mode. Heck, probably bear mode as MFI certainly did not end 2015 in glory. Here are the open tranches in MFI Tracking:
| 1/30/2015 | -13.1% |
| 2/27/2015 | -21.0% |
| 3/27/2015 | -20.6% |
| 4/24/2015 | -22.6% |
| 5/29/2015 | -22.0% |
| 6/26/2015 | -18.9% |
| 7/30/2015 | -14.2% |
| 8/28/2015 | -9.1% |
| 9/25/2015 | -8.1% |
| 10/30/2015 | -13.8% |
| 11/27/2015 | -11.7% |
Not sure I need to say more. While the markets can of course continue to drop, some stocks have become quite cheap. I did actually add to CSQ (8.66), AOD (6.90) and REXI (4.79) in my dividend portfolio on Friday.
MFI Select
| 2/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VEC | $28.00 | $20.03 | $0.00 | -28.5% | -5.4% |
| QCOM | $62.73 | $45.82 | $1.86 | -24.0% | -5.4% |
| VIAB | $63.91 | $39.85 | $1.53 | -35.3% | -5.4% |
| UIS | $22.03 | $8.83 | $0.00 | -59.9% | -5.4% |
| NHTC | $12.44 | $17.75 | $0.05 | 43.1% | -5.4% |
| Totals | -20.9% | -5.4% | |||
| 5/6/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CBI | $50.38 | $35.03 | $0.14 | -30.2% | -10.1% |
| PSDV | $4.12 | $3.46 | $0.00 | -16.1% | -10.1% |
| TSRA | $38.94 | $27.02 | $0.60 | -29.1% | -10.1% |
| KORS | $62.24 | $35.57 | $0.00 | -42.9% | -10.1% |
| DEPO | $23.50 | $14.88 | $0.00 | -36.7% | -10.1% |
| Totals | -31.0% | -10.1% | |||
| 8/17/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VDSI | $18.66 | $15.45 | $0.00 | -17.2% | -10.7% |
| SALE | $9.34 | $8.39 | $0.00 | -10.2% | -10.7% |
| CSCO | $28.95 | $23.62 | $0.42 | -17.0% | -10.7% |
| TGNA | $25.30 | $24.02 | $0.28 | -4.0% | -10.7% |
| HSII | $20.14 | $26.81 | $0.13 | 33.8% | -10.7% |
| Totals | -2.9% | -10.7% | |||
| 11/15/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| LCI | $34.01 | $34.12 | - | 0.3% | -8.7% |
| SAVE | $34.48 | $38.58 | - | 11.9% | -8.7% |
| PPC | $18.98 | $21.85 | - | 15.1% | -8.7% |
| VEC | $23.60 | $20.03 | - | -15.1% | -8.7% |
| VNCE | $3.99 | $4.03 | - | 1.0% | -8.7% |
| Totals | 2.6% | -8.7% | |||
| Category/Tranche | August | November | February | May | Total |
| Initial Investment | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 100,000 |
| Current Tranche | -2.9% | 2.6% | -20.9% | -31.0% | -13.2% |
| Previous Tranche | 11.2% | 69.4% | 8.5% | 18.3% | 46.6% |
| Tranche -2 | 41.4% | 14.2% | 78.3% | 33.0% | 41.7% |
| Tranche -3 | 14.1% | 43.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 74.1% | 185.5% | 52.9% | 8.6% | 80.3% |
| Current Balance | 43,533 | 71,375 | 38,225 | 27,145 | 180,277 |
| R3K Current Tranche | -10.7% | -8.7% | -5.4% | -10.1% | -8.7% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 41.7% | 44.0% | 29.4% | 20.6% | 33.9% |
| R3K Balance | 35,432 | 36,008 | 32,346 | 30,154 | 133,940 |
| Annualized IRR | 17.6% | 39.2% | 15.4% | 3.1% | 20.6% |
With the crash and burn of NHTC, my February tranche looks like the over Feb MFI tracking portfolio. Not pretty.
| Date | Differential | MFI Value | R3K Value |
| 12/1/2012 | -2.20% | 99,765 | 101,965 |
| 1/1/2013 | -1.78% | 102,798 | 104,575 |
| 2/1/2013 | -2.26% | 102,594 | 104,856 |
| 3/1/2013 | -2.23% | 102,881 | 105,114 |
| 4/1/2013 | -0.43% | 106,804 | 107,234 |
| 5/1/2013 | 2.00% | 110,423 | 108,423 |
| 6/1/2013 | 4.75% | 115,831 | 111,085 |
| 7/1/2013 | 4.29% | 114,888 | 110,597 |
| 8/1/2013 | 6.91% | 124,799 | 117,889 |
| 9/1/2013 | 10.46% | 124,536 | 114,079 |
| 10/1/2013 | 19.67% | 138,655 | 118,990 |
| 11/1/2013 | 19.75% | 143,514 | 123,764 |
| 12/1/2013 | 23.70% | 150,105 | 126,405 |
| 1/1/2014 | 26.63% | 157,138 | 130,503 |
| 2/1/2014 | 24.70% | 150,619 | 125,918 |
| 3/1/2014 | 25.66% | 158,116 | 132,458 |
| 4/1/2014 | 30.38% | 162,991 | 132,616 |
| 5/1/2014 | 29.65% | 162,428 | 132,779 |
| 6/1/2014 | 31.44% | 167,001 | 135,559 |
| 7/1/2014 | 39.23% | 177,971 | 138,740 |
| 8/1/2014 | 31.13% | 167,054 | 135,922 |
| 9/1/2014 | 35.90% | 177,792 | 141,892 |
| 10/1/2014 | 29.38% | 168,321 | 138,944 |
| 11/1/2014 | 26.14% | 168,810 | 142,666 |
| 12/1/2014 | 30.22% | 176,420 | 146,198 |
| 1/1/2015 | 28.17% | 174,306 | 146,140 |
| 2/1/2015 | 20.63% | 162,833 | 142,201 |
| 3/1/2015 | 25.15% | 175,476 | 150,324 |
| 4/1/2015 | 29.95% | 178,565 | 148,612 |
| 5/1/2015 | 37.31% | 186,655 | 149,348 |
| 6/1/2015 | 51.53% | 202,897 | 151,371 |
| 7/1/2015 | 62.69% | 211,437 | 148,743 |
| 8/1/2015 | 40.75% | 192,117 | 151,369 |
| 9/1/2015 | 36.41% | 178,603 | 142,195 |
| 10/1/2015 | 43.12% | 181,175 | 138,052 |
| 11/1/2015 | 69.02% | 217,959 | 148,936 |
| 12/1/2015 | 73.49% | 223,435 | 149,946 |
| 1/1/2016 | 63.33% | 209,514 | 146,186 |
| Current | 46.34% | 180,277 | 133,940 |
$223,435 to $180.277 in under 2 months is the barrel over the falls.
MFI Formula
| 3/31/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| HRB | $31.99 | $31.87 | $0.60 | 1.5% | -10.2% |
| GME | $37.69 | $25.64 | $1.08 | -29.1% | -10.2% |
| KING | $15.85 | $17.65 | $0.00 | 11.3% | -10.2% |
| NSU | $3.43 | $2.33 | $0.12 | -28.6% | -10.2% |
| PPC | $22.65 | $21.85 | $0.00 | -3.5% | -10.2% |
| Totals | -9.7% | -10.2% | |||
| 7/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BKE | $46.45 | $27.15 | $0.46 | -40.6% | -10.1% |
| CA | $29.34 | $26.53 | $0.50 | -7.9% | -10.1% |
| MSFT | $44.42 | $50.99 | $0.67 | 16.3% | -10.1% |
| QCOM | $62.95 | $45.82 | $0.96 | -25.7% | -10.1% |
| VIAB | $64.75 | $39.85 | $0.80 | -37.2% | -10.1% |
| Totals | -19.0% | -10.1% | |||
| 10/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BKE | $36.83 | $27.15 | $0.23 | -25.7% | -3.6% |
| IQNT | $21.96 | $15.48 | $0.15 | -28.8% | -3.6% |
| QCOM | $53.45 | $45.82 | $0.48 | -13.4% | -3.6% |
| CSCO | $26.37 | $23.62 | $0.42 | -8.8% | -3.6% |
| CA | $27.30 | $26.53 | $0.25 | -1.9% | -3.6% |
| Totals | -15.7% | -3.6% | |||
| 12/31/15 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BBY | $30.31 | $27.11 | $0.00 | -10.6% | -8.8% |
| GME | $28.34 | $25.64 | $0.00 | -9.5% | -8.8% |
| IILG | $15.89 | $12.75 | $0.00 | -19.8% | -8.8% |
| PPC | $22.22 | $21.85 | $0.00 | -1.6% | -8.8% |
| VIAB | $40.93 | $39.85 | $0.00 | -2.6% | -8.8% |
| Totals | -8.8% | -8.8% |
GME and BBY both reported holiday sales that disappointed the street.
| Date | Differential | Value | R3K Value |
| 10/1/2014 | 0.00% | 100,000 | 100,000 |
| 11/1/2014 | 1.63% | 102,288 | 100,658 |
| 12/1/2014 | 0.30% | 101,375 | 101,075 |
| 1/1/2015 | -0.33% | 100,664 | 100,995 |
| 2/1/2015 | 1.67% | 101,281 | 99,611 |
| 3/1/2015 | 3.62% | 106,073 | 102,454 |
| 4/1/2015 | 5.09% | 106,781 | 101,695 |
| 5/1/2015 | 5.78% | 107,859 | 102,077 |
| 6/1/2015 | 5.08% | 108,213 | 103,134 |
| 7/1/2015 | 4.82% | 106,423 | 101,604 |
| 8/1/2015 | 3.71% | 107,112 | 103,404 |
| 9/1/2015 | 4.38% | 101,523 | 97,139 |
| 10/1/2015 | 6.39% | 100,703 | 94,312 |
| 11/1/2015 | 2.93% | 104,835 | 101,907 |
| 12/1/2015 | -3.48% | 99,443 | 102,926 |
| 1/1/2016 | -3.36% | 96,830 | 100,193 |
| Current | -2.50% | 89,273 | 91,578 |
So underperforming the index, but tough sledding everywhere.
MFI Micro
| 8/28/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VNCE | $8.50 | $4.03 | $0.00 | -52.6% | -6.1% |
| ONE | $1.99 | $3.39 | $0.00 | 70.4% | -6.1% |
| TPUB | $11.60 | $7.76 | $0.18 | -31.6% | -6.1% |
| LQDT | $7.26 | $5.81 | $0.00 | -20.0% | -6.1% |
| PERI | $2.45 | $2.47 | $0.00 | 0.8% | -6.1% |
| Totals | -6.6% | -6.1% | |||
| 12/15/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| MGIC | $5.38 | $5.43 | $0.00 | 0.9% | -8.5% |
| BSQR | $6.00 | $5.51 | $0.00 | -8.2% | -8.5% |
| SPCB | $4.52 | $5.00 | $0.00 | 10.6% | -8.5% |
| WLDN | $8.64 | $7.72 | $0.00 | -10.7% | -8.5% |
| MNDO | $2.58 | $2.36 | $0.00 | -8.6% | -8.5% |
| Totals | - | -3.2% | -8.5% |
woo-hoo! Not.
Dividends and Warrants
| Div and Warrants | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain |
| BAC-WTA | $5.86 | $4.11 | $0.00 | -29.9% |
| AOD | $7.90 | $6.87 | $1.38 | 4.5% |
| JQC | $7.82 | $7.43 | $0.10 | -3.7% |
| CSQ | $9.24 | $8.63 | $1.78 | 12.6% |
| NTC | $12.06 | $12.60 | $1.30 | 15.3% |
| TGONF | $10.24 | $9.23 | $1.19 | 1.8% |
| HIG-WT | $21.24 | $31.42 | $0.00 | 47.9% |
| O | $22.83 | $52.19 | $17.76 | 206.4% |
| OIBAX | $5.04 | $5.48 | $2.15 | 51.2% |
| SJT | $8.79 | $4.67 | $0.15 | -45.2% |
| REXI | $6.14 | $4.81 | $0.09 | -20.2% |
| Totals | -4.1% |
Wow, BAC warrants down 30% since I started buying them. That kind of says it all.
Off to enjoy three day weekend.
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