Warm Saturday morning here. Have a little John Coltrane playing, Blue Train, on my Ipod. I was a crazy week work-wise, so I didn't really watch the markets much. But it looks like everything went okay.
Earnings are starting to come in. BAC had strong earnings, which really helped my BAC-WTA. BAC went up from $16.70 to $18.10. My warrants were up from $6.05 to $6.94. A very snappy 15% gain. It is now my 5th largest holding, so that really helps. My HIG-WT was also up 8% as there are many rumors about TRV buying them. Seems like a long shot to me, but who knows?
MFI Select
My May portfolio continues to make a run at getting back to even as DEPO went up again on speculation. It is now up 38% for me in total and over 50% the past couple weeks. If it wasn't in my "do not sell portfolio", I'd have to think about ringing the register.
| Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain | |
| $24.40 | $28.18 | $0.80 | 18.8% | 10.6% | |
| AGX | $36.71 | $39.49 | $0.70 | 9.5% | 10.6% |
| ITRN | $21.32 | $25.12 | $0.87 | 21.9% | 10.6% |
| $9.34 | $10.72 | $0.15 | 16.4% | 10.6% | |
| $58.25 | $48.49 | $0.21 | -16.4% | 10.6% | |
| Totals | 10.0% | 10.6% | |||
| Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain | |
| $64.80 | $50.27 | $0.63 | -21.5% | 6.1% | |
| IPCM | $38.45 | $55.94 | $0.00 | 45.5% | 6.1% |
| VIAB | $72.29 | $60.78 | $1.06 | -14.5% | 6.1% |
| NHTC | $12.19 | $34.83 | $0.06 | 186.2% | 6.1% |
| $4.40 | $3.92 | $0.00 | -10.9% | 6.1% | |
| Totals | 37.0% | 6.1% | |||
| Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain | |
| VEC | $28.00 | $24.18 | $0.00 | -13.6% | 7.6% |
| $62.73 | $64.34 | $0.90 | 4.0% | 7.6% | |
| VIAB | $63.91 | $60.78 | $0.73 | -3.8% | 7.6% |
| $22.03 | $20.60 | $0.00 | -6.5% | 7.6% | |
| NHTC | $12.44 | $34.83 | $0.05 | 180.4% | 7.6% |
| Totals | 32.1% | 7.6% | |||
| Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain | |
| $50.38 | $48.49 | $0.07 | -3.6% | 2.3% | |
| PSDV | $4.12 | $4.05 | $0.00 | -1.8% | 2.3% |
| TSRA | $38.94 | $35.49 | $0.20 | -8.3% | 2.3% |
| KORS | $62.24 | $40.52 | $0.00 | -34.9% | 2.3% |
| DEPO | $23.50 | $32.51 | $0.00 | 38.3% | 2.3% |
| Totals | -2.1% | 2.3% |
Drats, my August portfolio, which doesn't have many trading days left, is now trailing by 1/2 a point. BRCD really has dropped recently as one of their competitors pre-announced a poor quarter. It is down 14% in the past month.
| Date | Differential | MFI Value | R3K Value |
| -2.20% | 99,765 | 101,965 | |
| -1.78% | 102,798 | 104,575 | |
| -2.26% | 102,594 | 104,856 | |
| -2.23% | 102,881 | 105,114 | |
| -0.43% | 106,804 | 107,234 | |
| 2.00% | 110,423 | 108,423 | |
| 4.75% | 115,831 | 111,085 | |
| 4.29% | 114,888 | 110,597 | |
| 6.91% | 124,799 | 117,889 | |
| 10.46% | 124,536 | 114,079 | |
| 19.67% | 138,655 | 118,990 | |
| 19.75% | 143,514 | 123,764 | |
| 23.70% | 150,105 | 126,405 | |
| 26.63% | 157,138 | 130,503 | |
| 24.70% | 150,619 | 125,918 | |
| 25.66% | 158,116 | 132,458 | |
| 30.38% | 162,991 | 132,616 | |
| 29.65% | 162,428 | 132,779 | |
| 31.44% | 167,001 | 135,559 | |
| 39.23% | 177,971 | 138,740 | |
| 31.13% | 167,054 | 135,922 | |
| 35.90% | 177,792 | 141,892 | |
| 29.38% | 168,321 | 138,944 | |
| 26.14% | 168,810 | 142,666 | |
| 30.22% | 176,420 | 146,198 | |
| 28.17% | 174,306 | 146,140 | |
| 20.63% | 162,833 | 142,201 | |
| 25.15% | 175,476 | 150,324 | |
| 29.95% | 178,565 | 148,612 | |
| 37.31% | 186,655 | 149,348 | |
| 6/1/2015 | 51.53% | 202,897 | 151,371 |
| 7/1/2015 | 62.69% | 211,437 | 148,743 |
| Current | 50.04% | 202,946 | 152,907 |
Looking at my month by month tracking, I have given back all my June gains. A large part of that is NHTC spiking in June and now falling back. BTW, NHTC pre-announced great revenues this week yet has traded down (Natural Health Trends Announces Second Quarter Revenue Estimate). That struck me as strange. I think it has become a bit of a momentum stock and short term traders are causing these swings.
MFI Formula
This approach continues to be solid, if a bit dull. Nothing wrong with dull if it is making money. GME and RGR continue to carry a lot of water for this portfolio. Like my MFI select, these guys are giving back some ground in July:
| Date | Differential | Value | R3K Value |
| 0.00% | 100,000 | 100,000 | |
| 1.63% | 102,288 | 100,658 | |
| 0.30% | 101,375 | 101,075 | |
| -0.33% | 100,664 | 100,995 | |
| 1.67% | 101,281 | 99,611 | |
| 3.62% | 106,073 | 102,454 | |
| 5.09% | 106,781 | 101,695 | |
| 5.78% | 107,859 | 102,077 | |
| 5.08% | 108,213 | 103,134 | |
| 4.82% | 106,423 | 101,604 | |
| Current | 4.01% | 108,472 | 104,458 |
| 10/1/2014 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BAH | $23.52 | $26.58 | $0.37 | 14.6% | 10.1% |
| $45.55 | $45.70 | $3.45 | 7.9% | 10.1% | |
| CA | $27.87 | $30.53 | $0.75 | 12.2% | 10.1% |
| $41.70 | $46.67 | $1.05 | 14.4% | 10.1% | |
| $44.56 | $40.15 | $1.05 | -7.6% | 10.1% | |
| Totals | 8.3% | 10.1% | |||
| 12/31/14 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CA | $30.83 | $30.53 | $0.50 | 0.7% | 3.5% |
| $28.36 | $28.18 | $0.61 | 1.5% | 3.5% | |
| $34.81 | $58.54 | $0.49 | 69.6% | 3.5% | |
| $34.21 | $46.67 | $0.72 | 38.5% | 3.5% | |
| IQNT | $19.87 | $18.40 | $0.30 | -5.9% | 3.5% |
| Totals | 20.9% | 3.5% | |||
| Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain | |
| $31.99 | $31.80 | $0.20 | 0.0% | 2.2% | |
| $37.69 | $46.67 | $0.36 | 24.8% | 2.2% | |
| KING | $15.85 | $15.53 | $0.00 | -2.0% | 2.2% |
| NSU | $3.43 | $3.46 | $0.04 | 2.0% | 2.2% |
| PPC | $22.65 | $21.72 | $0.00 | -4.1% | 2.2% |
| Totals | 4.1% | 2.2% | |||
| Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain | |
| $46.45 | $45.70 | $0.00 | -1.6% | 2.2% | |
| CA | $29.34 | $30.53 | $0.00 | 4.1% | 2.2% |
| $44.42 | $46.62 | $0.00 | 5.0% | 2.2% | |
| $62.95 | $64.34 | $0.00 | 2.2% | 2.2% | |
| VIAB | $64.75 | $60.78 | $0.00 | -6.1% | 2.2% |
| Totals | 0.7% | 2.2% |
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2 comments:
Hey Marsh- Really enjoy your blog, thoughts and analysis. Are you condidering or any thoughts on GORO?
I've looked at GORO many times. I decided to go with NSU instead, I just felt they had more visibility on what remains to be mined. Both are subjected to gold and copper prices, which have struggled for the past year. But nothing wrong with GORO if you have the view gold prices will rise over next 12 months.
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