Saturday, July 25, 2015

Weekend Update MFI Diary - 7/25/15

Weekend Update

Terrible week for me.  I am too depressed to even figure out how bad it was. It was like every bit of news was bad news. I had earnings from 6 or 7 of my holdings.  Some were bad (like QCOM) and others were dreadful (like UIS and AWRE). The stock market will teach you humility.  So I am now up 5.3% on the year.  Seems like just a few weeks ago it was 14%. I had a meltdown last year from September onward, hopefully this is not a repeat.

MFI Select

Ok, I did the math.  Down a smidgen over 10% this past week. Wow.  I am not sure, but that has to be one of my worst MFI weeks ever. Hurt by NHTC down 25%.

8/15/2014 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CSCO $24.40 $28.40 $0.80 19.7% 8.2%
AGX $36.71 $37.13 $0.70 3.1% 8.2%
ITRN $21.32 $24.70 $0.87 19.9% 8.2%
BRCD $9.34 $10.07 $0.15 9.5% 8.2%
CBI $58.25 $48.80 $0.21 -15.9% 8.2%
Totals 7.3% 8.2%
11/15/2014 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
FLR $64.80 $48.06 $0.63 -24.9% 3.7%
IPCM $38.45 $51.89 $0.00 35.0% 3.7%
VIAB $72.29 $56.41 $1.06 -20.5% 3.7%
NHTC $12.19 $25.22 $0.06 107.4% 3.7%
AWRE $4.40 $3.38 $0.00 -23.2% 3.7%
Totals 14.8% 3.7%
2/1/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
VEC $28.00 $23.73 $0.00 -15.3% 5.2%
QCOM $62.73 $61.64 $0.90 -0.3% 5.2%
VIAB $63.91 $56.41 $0.73 -10.6% 5.2%
UIS $22.03 $16.55 $0.00 -24.9% 5.2%
NHTC $12.44 $25.22 $0.05 103.1% 5.2%
Totals 10.4% 5.2%
5/6/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CBI $50.38 $48.80 $0.07 -3.0% 0.0%
PSDV $4.12 $4.07 $0.00 -1.3% 0.0%
TSRA $38.94 $34.64 $0.20 -10.5% 0.0%
KORS $62.24 $39.33 $0.00 -36.8% 0.0%
DEPO $23.50 $32.60 $0.00 38.7% 0.0%
Totals -2.6% 0.0%


Category/Tranche August November February May Total
Initial Investment      25,000       25,000     25,000      25,000    100,000
Current Tranche 7.3% 14.8% 10.4% -2.6% 7.5%
Previous Tranche 41.4% 14.2% 8.5% 18.3% 19.0%
Tranche -2 14.1% 43.7% 78.3% 33.0% 42.3%
MFI Overall Gain 73.0% 88.4% 113.5% 53.2% 82.0%
Current Balance      43,251       47,093     53,367      38,312    182,023
R3K Current Tranche 8.2% 3.7% 5.2% 0.0% 4.3%
R3K Overall Gain 57.8% 62.3% 43.9% 34.2% 49.6%
R3K Balance      39,446       40,585     35,975      33,552    149,558
Annualized IRR 20.5% 26.5% 35.8% 21.2% 25.8%

Date Differential MFI Value R3K Value
12/1/2012 -2.20%       99,765         101,965
1/1/2013 -1.78%      102,798         104,575
2/1/2013 -2.26%      102,594         104,856
3/1/2013 -2.23%      102,881         105,114
4/1/2013 -0.43%      106,804         107,234
5/1/2013 2.00%      110,423         108,423
6/1/2013 4.75%      115,831         111,085
7/1/2013 4.29%      114,888         110,597
8/1/2013 6.91%      124,799         117,889
9/1/2013 10.46%      124,536         114,079
10/1/2013 19.67%      138,655         118,990
11/1/2013 19.75%      143,514         123,764
12/1/2013 23.70%      150,105         126,405
1/1/2014 26.63%      157,138         130,503
2/1/2014 24.70%      150,619         125,918
3/1/2014 25.66%      158,116         132,458
4/1/2014 30.38%      162,991         132,616
5/1/2014 29.65%      162,428         132,779
6/1/2014 31.44%      167,001         135,559
7/1/2014 39.23%      177,971         138,740
8/1/2014 31.13%      167,054         135,922
9/1/2014 35.90%      177,792         141,892
10/1/2014 29.38%      168,321         138,944
11/1/2014 26.14%      168,810         142,666
12/1/2014 30.22%      176,420         146,198
1/1/2015 28.17%      174,306         146,140
2/1/2015 20.63%      162,833         142,201
3/1/2015 25.15%      175,476         150,324
4/1/2015 29.95%      178,565         148,612
5/1/2015 37.31%      186,655         149,348
6/1/2015 51.53%      202,897         151,371
7/1/2015 62.69%      211,437         148,743
Current 32.47%      182,023         149,558


This final table really tells the story, from $211,437 (assuming I started at $100K) to 182,023 since July 1st. And that is a period where R3K has edged up a bit.  Hopefully I'll pull out of the tailspin.

MFI Formula

Not quite as bloody, down a bit more than 3% during the week.

10/1/2014 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
BAH $23.52 $25.83 $0.37 11.4% 7.7%
BKE $45.55 $43.43 $3.68 3.4% 7.7%
CA $27.87 $29.08 $0.75 7.0% 7.7%
GME $41.70 $45.49 $1.05 11.6% 7.7%
NUS $44.56 $38.68 $1.05 -10.9% 7.7%
Totals 4.5% 7.7%
12/31/14 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CA $30.83 $29.08 $0.50 -4.0% 1.2%
CSCO $28.36 $28.40 $0.61 2.3% 1.2%
RGR $34.81 $56.98 $0.49 65.1% 1.2%
GME $34.21 $45.49 $0.72 35.1% 1.2%
IQNT $19.87 $17.77 $0.30 -9.1% 1.2%
Totals 17.9% 1.2%
3/31/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
HRB $31.99 $32.76 $0.20 3.0% -0.1%
GME $37.69 $45.49 $0.36 21.7% -0.1%
KING $15.85 $15.93 $0.00 0.5% -0.1%
NSU $3.43 $3.29 $0.04 -2.9% -0.1%
PPC $22.65 $19.56 $0.00 -13.6% -0.1%
Totals 1.7% -0.1%
7/1/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
BKE $46.45 $43.43 $0.23 -6.0% 0.0%
CA $29.34 $29.08 $0.00 -0.9% 0.0%
MSFT $44.42 $45.94 $0.00 3.4% 0.0%
QCOM $62.95 $61.64 $0.00 -2.1% 0.0%
VIAB $64.75 $56.41 $0.00 -12.9% 0.0%
Totals -3.7% 0.0%

So the first tranche has hit the skids a bit. Then July 1st is certainly struggling as well.

Date Differential Value R3K Value
10/1/2014 0.00%      100,000         100,000
11/1/2014 1.63%      102,288         100,658
12/1/2014 0.30%      101,375         101,075
1/1/2015 -0.33%      100,664         100,995
2/1/2015 1.67%      101,281           99,611
3/1/2015 3.62%      106,073         102,454
4/1/2015 5.09%      106,781         101,695
5/1/2015 5.78%      107,859         102,077
6/1/2015 5.08%      108,213         103,134
7/1/2015 4.82%      106,423         101,604
Current 2.91%      105,072         102,163

I'd like to say everything else was hunky-dory, but that was not the case.  Oh well, I am still up for the year.  I am about to head off on vacation - just one more stress-filled week in NYC.

Have a great weekend everyone.





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