Sunday, July 12, 2015

Top 200 List From a Year Ago

Just for fun, I looked at my top 200 list from a year ago (August 1st).  Here is how the top 50 stocks on the list fared:

Stock  Initial   Current   Dividends   Change 
PDLI           9.38               6.30                    0.60 -26.4%
PTIE           4.21               1.70                        -   -59.6%
TTWO         22.38            28.26                        -   26.3%
CALL         14.27               6.91                        -   -51.6%
AGX         33.90            39.97                    0.70 20.0%
KING         19.19            14.68                    1.40 -16.2%
GAME           6.60               6.75                        -   2.3%
LQDT         13.49               9.35                        -   -30.7%
EBIX         12.56            32.59                        -   159.5%
PFMT           9.59               3.15                        -   -67.2%
DEPO           9.95            30.14                        -   202.9%
BCOR         17.07            15.74                        -   -7.8%
CTCM           9.67               1.91                    0.53 -74.8%
TNH      146.51          113.37                    9.39 -16.2%
HLF         53.30            51.41                        -   -3.5%
AVG         17.00            27.67                        -   62.8%
MYGN         36.10            34.32                        -   -4.9%
USNA         63.85          135.16                        -   111.7%
IQNT         10.61            17.76                    0.60 73.0%
QCOR         89.52            93.60                        -   4.6%
APOL         27.88            14.01                        -   -49.7%
COH         34.60            33.38                    1.35 0.4%
ESI         14.23               3.81                        -   -73.2%
RGR         49.96            57.43                    1.08 17.1%
NUS         58.69            41.62                    1.39 -26.7%
NSR         27.86            29.01                        -   4.1%
PRIS           9.75               7.75 4.1%
CSCO         25.06            27.28                    0.80 12.1%
UIS         21.29            20.02                        -   -6.0%
BKE         44.50            46.27                    3.65 12.2%
STRA         51.82            45.69                        -   -11.8%
HRB         32.09            31.18                    0.80 -0.3%
TZOO         17.24            11.95                        -   -30.7%
CA         28.79            30.34                    1.00 8.9%
PETS         13.70            18.00                    0.68 36.4%
NDZ         12.96            13.00                        -   0.3%
CNVR         23.37            34.44                        -   47.4%
GME         42.41            46.96                    1.38 14.0%
SWHC         12.35            16.44                        -   33.1%
AFOP         13.38            19.96                        -   49.2%
NTES         83.47          139.95                    1.52 69.5%
SPRT           2.38               1.41                        -   -40.8%
RTN         91.86            98.71                    2.55 10.2%
NOC      124.29          165.37                    2.90 35.4%
ATAI           4.90               4.65                        -   -5.1%
ETM           9.45            11.44                        -   21.1%
TDC         42.61            35.93                        -   -15.7%
MGIC           6.91               6.45                    0.10 -5.3%
BAH         22.27            25.94                    1.48 23.1%
CYOU         24.04            23.46                        -   -2.4%
Total 8.7%

8.7% is a bit better than the R3K and quite a bit better than my end of July tracking portfolio is faring.  Let us look at the next 50 stocks:

Stock  Initial   Current   Dividends   Change 
BWC         31.05            32.80                    0.40 6.9%
LFVN           1.30               0.54                        -   -58.5%
BRCD           9.21            11.32                    0.15 24.5%
VGR         19.55            23.92                    1.60 30.5%
STV           4.54               3.23                        -   -28.9%
STRZA         28.35            44.09                        -   55.5%
DNB      110.03          124.21                    1.72 14.5%
ONE           4.18               2.80                        -   -33.0%
NTP           7.13               4.65                        -   -34.8%
FRAN         12.78            13.50                        -   5.6%
HSII         18.67            25.87                    0.52 41.3%
AAPL         95.89          123.28                    1.93 30.6%
ORCL         40.26            40.36                    0.54 1.6%
MED         28.71            30.89                        -   7.6%
KRFT         54.13            88.19                    2.20 67.0%
RPXC         15.60            16.30                        -   4.5%
IILG         21.18            22.33                    0.46 7.6%
APEI         35.70            26.65                        -   -25.4%
MSFT         43.15            44.61                    1.21 6.2%
K         60.20            63.75                    1.96 9.2%
PBI         26.94            21.08                    0.75 -19.0%
ANIK         42.06            33.33                        -   -20.8%
ITRN         23.08            24.90                    0.90 11.8%
VIAB         82.36            61.80                    1.40 -23.3%
CRUS         22.43            31.34                        -   39.7%
UTHR         90.92          171.57                        -   88.7%
XLS         17.25            24.66                    0.30 44.7%
HPQ         35.05            30.65                    0.64 -10.7%
SYNT         86.37            43.97                        -   -49.1%
PME           2.53               1.64                        -   -35.2%
NATR         15.44            12.90                    1.80 -4.8%
HRS         68.44            79.35                    1.88 18.7%
LEE           3.80               3.16                        -   -16.8%
RAI         55.63            76.87                    2.68 43.0%
SAIC         41.77            52.56                    0.84 27.8%
WSTC         25.77            30.35                    0.90 21.3%
MD         59.18            76.01                        -   28.4%
BOLT         17.07            22.00                        -   28.9%
LLL      107.55          120.22                    2.50 14.1%
EGL         34.56            24.83                 11.43 4.9%
CPLA         63.96            54.35                    1.46 -12.7%
BBBY         62.04            67.92                        -   9.5%
FF         15.76            12.65                    0.36 -17.4%
EXLS         28.05            36.39                        -   29.7%
WINA         65.47          104.79                    0.25 60.4%
TUP         72.78            64.96                    2.72 -7.0%
CRWN           3.38               4.53                        -   34.0%
GPS         40.04            37.58                    0.90 -3.9%
MO         40.54            51.31                    2.08 31.7%
SLI         36.18            39.25                        -   8.5%
Total 9.2%
So actually a little bit better.  Just eye balling the list - it seems that the hypothesis of larger cap stocks with a 2.4% dividend would have outperformed.  Yep, that subset would be up 12.1%.  On the first group it would be up 3.5%, really hurt by big decline in CTCM.

Ok, that is a wrap.

2 comments:

jb said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
jb said...

Interesting to look back at an old list like that. Overall the result is okay, but a lot of variability in there. That's hard to hold on to through the year. Eliminating the countries that don't respect the rule of law would have helped in the first list by screening out CTCM (-74.8%)...

Hard to say if that is the right answer though. Personally I'll my money out of those countries, but if I had to pick one I would select China before Russia for my investing selections. The Chinese economy is enormous and doesn't seem to be under as tight of control by one person. In the future the investment results might be reversed by showing huge price increases.

regards,
j