Weekend Update - I Was The Bug

Some Days You Are The Windshield, Some Days You Are The Bug

Second worst week of the year.  The GTAT disappointment was a major driver, but not much else stepped up either. Here are may gains/losses by stock with my multiplier:

Index	Stock	8/29/2014	Current	Weekly Change	$ Gain
1	GNW	13.23	13.17	-0.5%	(833)
2	GTAT	16.99	12.82	-24.5%	(58,380)
3	AOD	8.95	8.83	-1.3%	(1,724)
4	BBEP	22.63	21.72	-4.0%	(5,237)
5	KLIC	14.95	14.70	-1.7%	(1,750)
6	RIOM	2.88	2.84	-1.4%	(1,400)
7	ATVI	24.02	23.39	-2.6%	(2,534)
8	TLM	9.97	9.59	-3.8%	(3,610)
9	BAC-WTA	7.17	7.55	5.3%	4,560
10	GPS	44.65	44.29	-0.8%	(720)
11	NTC	12.61	12.43	-1.5%	(1,246)
12	FSC	9.86	9.76	-1.0%	(854)
13	CSQ	12.05	11.81	-2.0%	(1,692)
14	TGONF	11.45	11.28	-1.5%	(1,204)
15	TPVG	15.30	15.24	-0.4%	(308)
16	CSCO	25.00	25.16	0.6%	472
17	TNH	148.41	144.80	-2.4%	(1,805)
18	TCMCF	14.75	14.75	0.0%	-
19	NADL	9.99	8.61	-13.8%	(10,165)
20	RPXC	15.23	14.74	-3.2%	(2,081)
21	AVG	17.35	17.20	-0.9%	(491)
22	SNDK	98.79	98.97	0.2%	102
23	AGX	38.22	37.21	-2.6%	(1,495)
24	TSL	13.00	13.00	0.0%	-
25	SYNA	84.39	83.33	-1.3%	(659)
26	KLAC	78.31	78.28	0.0%	(20)
27	TIME	23.78	23.81	0.1%	60
28	HIG-WT	28.36	28.80	1.6%	726
29	EXETF	7.82	7.53	-3.8%	(1,767)
30	BRCD	10.31	10.26	-0.5%	(214)
31	WNR	47.56	43.07	-9.4%	(4,537)
32	CBI	63.36	61.90	-2.3%	(1,000)
33	ITRN	21.73	21.75	0.1%	38
34	NSR	29.12	26.75	-8.1%	(2,749)
35	RCII	28.24	28.81	2.0%	588
36	CA	29.22	28.50	-2.5%	(729)
37	O	45.35	42.50	-6.3%	(1,718)
38	OIBAX	6.13	6.07	-1.0%	(250)
39	Overall			-4.0%	(104,626)

You can see that NADL also got tattooed.  One of my few "good" stocks was TSL, but I have sold call options on them, so they are capped at $13.

While it was a horrid week, I think it is important as an investor to not let it get to you.  That is one reason I do not use margin.  One needs to remember it is a marathon, I do not need any of this money for at least 10 more years.

In hindsight, I had too much GTAT.  I am actually relieved that I sold shares (with multiplier 4,000 shares to drop to 14,000) on 8/19 at $18.37.  As I wrote yesterday (GTAT Thoughts), there was

evidence (in hindsight) of a likely short term disappointment.  I just had on the rose-colored glasses.

So I have decided to retain my GTAT, though I have sold January 2015 calls at a $15 strike price on about 1/2 the shares.  I still believe they will be involved in phones in the future, they just could not meet the target date.

MFI Stocks

This portfolio was the best house in a bad neighborhood this week. It did lose value, but at least it did not fall on the proverbial table.

11/15/13 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
AVG	$17.22	$17.20	$0.00	-0.1%	11.7%
ATVI	$17.71	$23.39	$0.20	33.2%	11.7%
GA	$9.04	$11.90	$0.23	34.2%	11.7%
RPXC	$17.04	$14.74	$0.00	-13.5%	11.7%
SYNA	$48.01	$83.33	$0.00	73.6%	11.7%
Totals				25.5%	11.7%
2/1/14 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
ATVI	$17.13	$23.39	$0.20	37.7%	11.7%
KLAC	$61.47	$78.28	$1.40	29.6%	11.7%
RPXC	$16.22	$14.74	$0.00	-9.1%	11.7%
SNDK	$69.55	$98.97	$0.53	43.1%	11.7%
WNR	$39.11	$43.07	$0.78	12.1%	11.7%
Totals				22.7%	11.7%
5/6/2014	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
AVG	$19.57	$17.20	$0.00	-12.1%	6.3%
CA	$29.54	$28.50	$0.50	-1.8%	6.3%
CSCO	$22.79	$25.16	$0.19	11.3%	6.3%
NSR	$25.82	$26.75	$0.00	3.6%	6.3%
RCII	$28.78	$28.81	$0.23	0.9%	6.3%
Totals				0.4%	6.3%
8/15/2014	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
CSCO	$24.40	$25.16	$0.00	3.1%	1.8%
AGX	$36.71	$37.21	$0.00	1.4%	1.8%
ITRN	$21.32	$21.75	$0.00	2.0%	1.8%
BRCD	$9.34	$10.26	$0.00	9.9%	1.8%
CBI	$58.25	$61.90	$0.00	6.3%	1.8%
Totals				4.5%	1.8%
Category/Tranche	August	November	February	May	Total
Initial Investment	25,000	25,000	25,000	25,000	100,000
Current Tranche	4.5%	25.5%	22.7%	0.4%	13.3%
Previous Tranche	41.4%	43.7%	78.3%	33.0%	49.4%
Tranche -2	14.1%	-	-	-	3.5%
MFI Overall Gain	68.6%	80.4%	118.7%	33.5%	75.3%
Current Balance	42,154	45,091	54,669	33,375	175,288
R3K Current Tranche	19.4%	11.7%	11.7%	6.3%	12.3%
R3K Overall Gain	48.5%	52.7%	35.3%	26.4%	40.7%
R3K Balance	37,113	38,166	33,835	31,596	140,709
Annualized IRR	28.6%	38.1%	62.4%	23.7%	39.3%

WNR was the big loser, down almost 10%.  Everything associated with oil (BBEP and NADL as well) had a bad week last week.  I had written quite a while ago about Barron's prediction of $75 oil and how truckers and airlines would be better picks than oil stocks. We are not there yet, but seem to be moving that way directionally.  NSR was also down 8%, I suspect there are more rumors about their big FCC contract. The way things are going for me, I will probably whiff on that as well.

Discretionary Portfolio

Stock	Shares	Avg Cost	Current Price	Pct Change	R3K Change	Diff
AGX	190	36.71	37.21	1.4%	1.7%	-0.4%
BAC-WTA	12,000	6.05	7.55	24.7%	13.3%	11.4%
GNW	13,880	10.08	13.17	30.7%	23.6%	7.1%
GTAT	14,000	9.15	13.90	51.9%	11.3%	40.6%
HIG-WT	1,650	21.24	28.80	35.6%	21.0%	14.6%
KLIC	7,000	11.48	14.70	28.1%	16.4%	11.7%
RIOM	35,000	1.97	2.84	44.0%	6.3%	37.7%
TSL	4,000	12.58	15.96	26.9%	1.2%	25.7%
Total Open				34.4%	14.2%	20.2%
Closed				1.7%	1.1%	0.5%
Combined				5.2%	2.5%	2.6%

Wow, just a week ago the open stocks were leading by 29%.  Now it is 20%. Still a healthy margin, but illustrates how bad the week was here.  Again, this is overstated as I have not handled TSL correctly. It should be capped at $14.45 (my $13 strike place plus my call premium). Someday I will fix it (note the totals, 20.2%, are right).  I should note I sold my UEPS for a small gain this week.  It is a stock I will keep an eye one and perhaps make part of my November MFI tranche.

Dividend Portfolio

Well, the good news is that the my stocks continue to go x-dividend.  I collected dividends on BBEP, FSC and CA this week. TLM, FSC and NTC all went x-dividend as well.  Here is my dividend graph (always makes me feel better to see this):

Here are my current dividend holdings:

Stock	Shares	Avg Cost	Current Price	Dividends Received	Pct Change	R3K Change	Diff
AOD	14,186	8.03	8.83	11,717.83	20.2%	22.7%	-2.4%
BBEP	5,755	16.78	21.72	11,607.88	41.4%	16.1%	25.4%
CSQ	7,001	8.72	11.81	14,847.48	59.8%	57.1%	2.7%
EXETF	6,000	7.82	7.53	-	-3.7%	-1.0%	-2.7%
FSC	8,468	9.57	9.76	4,544.00	7.6%	6.4%	1.2%
GPS	2,000	40.55	44.29	440.00	9.8%	5.4%	4.4%
NADL	7,366	9.48	8.61	2,967.85	-5.0%	3.3%	-8.3%
NTC	6,784	12.02	12.43	3,058.21	7.2%	7.2%	0.0%
O	600	21.02	42.50	9,460.47	177.1%	118.0%	59.2%
OIBAX	4,147	5.00	6.07	8,261.12	61.2%	128.2%	-67.0%
TCMCF	4,903	13.89	14.75	-	6.2%	0.1%	6.1%
TGONF	7,000	10.27	11.28	3,452.50	14.6%	20.9%	-6.3%
TIME	2,000	22.89	23.81	-	4.0%	1.6%	2.5%
TLM	9,500	10.03	9.59	340.00	-4.0%	-0.7%	-3.3%
TNH	500	148.10	144.80	1,555.00	-0.1%	3.7%	-3.9%
TPVG	5,128	15.54	15.24	3,599.70	2.6%	4.6%	-2.1%
Total Open				75,852	14.9%	14.2%	0.7%
Closed					12.0%	10.9%	1.1%
Combined					12.6%	11.5%	1.0%
Annualized IRR Since 12/31/10					17.5%
2014 Gain					6.9%

Bit of a struggle, just up 6.9% for the year. I did add to NADL this week at $8.72.  But I love the income and as long as dividends are not cut, lower prices simply means I am reinvesting and getting more shares.

Stock	Shares	Ann Dividend / Share	Yield	Projected Dividend	Worth
AOD	14,186	0.68	7.7%	9,618	125,266
BBEP	5,755	2.01	9.3%	11,568	125,008
CSQ	7,001	1.00	8.5%	7,001	82,687
EXETF	6,000	0.48	6.4%	2,880	45,180
FSC	8,468	1.10	11.3%	9,314	82,644
GPS	2,000	0.88	2.0%	1,760	88,580
NADL	7,366	0.96	11.1%	7,071	63,422
NTC	6,784	0.68	5.5%	4,640	84,325
O	600	2.17	5.1%	1,303	25,518
OIBAX	4,147	0.29	4.8%	1,203	25,171
TCMCF	4,903	1.60	10.8%	7,845	72,319
TGONF	7,000	0.62	5.5%	4,340	78,946
TIME	2,000	0.80	3.4%	1,600	47,620
TLM	9,500	0.27	2.8%	2,565	91,105
TNH	500	12.04	8.3%	6,020	72,400
TPVG	5,128	1.20	7.9%	6,154	78,152
Total			7.1%	84,883	1,188,343

Options

I continue to "dabble" (meaning small amounts of money) in options.  It has not worked very well.  I have stopped with shorter term options (TLM and SLV) and will focus on selling calls (added GTAT this week) and buying long term calls (such as GNW). For me, the short term stuff is just too great a probability of losing 100%.

Open Date	Ticker	Type	Shares	Open Price	Current Price	Strike	Expiration	Gain
3/28/14	GTAT	Sell	3,000	2.40	0.55	22.00	9/20/14	5,550
6/18/14	TSL	Sell	4,000	1.45	-	13.00	9/20/14	5,800
8/21/14	GNW	Buy	10,000	1.24	0.83	17.00	1/15/16	(4,100)
8/22/14	TLM	Buy	10,000	0.55	0.28	11.00	10/18/14	(2,750)
8/28/14	SLV	Buy	10,000	0.66	0.23	11.00	10/18/14	(4,300)
9/4/14	GNW	Buy	2,000	1.05	0.83	17.00	1/15/16	(440)
9/5/14	ATVI	Sell	4,000	0.88	-	26.00	2/20/15	3,520
9/12/14	GTAT	Sell	8,000	1.20	-	15.00	1/20/15	9,600
	Total							12,880

I think that is a wrap.  Hopefully next week is better. But even if things go down, I do have a chunk of cash ready to put to work and I do not need investments for 10 years. So net, net I am a buyer, not a seller.