May 28th 2010 Tracking Portfolio

As my faithful readers know, I track the top 50 stocks over $100 every month from the official MFI website. I hold them for a year and then report the results here. This should come pretty close to replicating the portfolios JG created in TLBTBTM.

The May 2010 was not a winner, at least on a relative basis. It was up 19.3% versus 25.4% for the Russell 3000. The portfolio had two stocks (SOLR and CF) with gains over 100%. The bane of the portfolio was the three Chinese RTOs (CSKI, UTA and CEU). Yes I am familiar with those names.

Stock	Initial Price	End Price	Pct Change	52 week low	Mkt Cap
CF	68.36	155.19	127%	57.56	3,332
SOLR	5.46	11.53	111%	4.96	785
ENDP	20.94	41.52	98%	20.16	2,439
CBI	19.84	37.49	89%	16.64	2,004
SNTA	3.13	5.83	86%	2.55	127
CBST	21.50	38.29	78%	20.08	1,252
LO	68.35	114.96	68%	70.24	10,938
MRX	22.97	37.55	63%	21.02	1,350
IDCC	26.05	42.32	62%	23.73	1,146
RAI	24.46	39.49	61%	25.22	15,196
MHP	27.21	42.20	55%	26.95	8,771
VPHM	12.17	18.86	55%	10.29	947
PDLI	4.28	6.58	54%	4.66	642
PPD	46.32	66.27	43%	44.01	464
FWLT	24.01	33.89	41%	20.33	3,061
FRX	25.88	35.78	38%	24.17	7,826
RGR	15.45	21.11	37%	12.66	301
IPXL	21.08	27.18	29%	14.70	1,317
TNDM	13.44	16.89	26%	9.87	444
CBPO	12.89	16.10	25%	9.31	297
CNU	3.87	4.82	25%	3.25	233
USMO	12.58	15.62	24%	12.20	312
NSR	21.39	26.54	24%	20.20	1,602
GME	22.79	28.21	24%	17.70	3,484
IMMU	3.48	4.30	24%	2.81	262
DLX	20.74	25.50	23%	16.57	1,102
JCOM	23.14	28.27	22%	21.00	1,025
EME	24.97	30.22	21%	22.29	1,655
UIS	23.20	27.70	19%	17.04	986
SNTS	2.89	3.34	16%	2.09	169
TTT	7.24	7.81	8%	6.60	302
TSRA	17.38	17.19	-1%	14.96	872
RTN	50.73	50.03	-1%	42.65	19,832
CHKE	19.47	19.06	-2%	15.72	181
ELNK	8.07	7.84	-3%	7.61	927
AHCI	2.67	2.55	-4%	1.86	121
UNTD	6.41	5.93	-7%	4.75	590
AFAM	36.37	30.48	-16%	23.50	333
VALU	16.97	14.07	-17%	12.92	198
PRSC	16.39	13.29	-19%	11.88	212
OSK	35.53	27.79	-22%	24.63	3,186
APOL	53.16	40.22	-24%	33.75	8,059
CHOP	6.06	4.41	-27%	4.26	254
ARO	27.71	19.08	-31%	17.06	2,605
AMED	49.72	31.11	-37%	22.82	1,414
UEPS	14.32	8.36	-42%	7.29	650
CYTK	2.94	1.43	-51%	1.20	184
UTA	8.36	3.96	-53%	3.25	142
CEU	4.30	1.02	-76%	-	129
CSKI	12.66	2.83	-78%	2.73	213

Every Tracking Portfolio Back to January 2006

Below I list how every tracking portfolio has performed back to January 2006. I have two "sub" portfolios, one I call "New", which only has stocks that were not in any of the prior 11 portfolios and "Dividend", which has stocks with dividends (per Yahoo Finance) > 2.59%. I then show all three of those portfolios as if you had invested $100,000 equally over the first 12 months. I do this as Average Percentages are not reliable. If You go down by 50% and then up by 50%, you are much worse off than down 10% and up 10%. Volatility matters.

Average of Percent Change
Date	Total	IWV
1/6/2006	16.0%	10.9%
2/17/2006	21.2%	14.6%
3/29/2006	13.0%	9.6%
4/7/2006	10.3%	12.1%
5/12/2006	20.4%	18.6%
5/31/2006	29.2%	23.3%
6/30/2006	22.4%	20.0%
7/31/2006	19.7%	17.3%
8/31/2006	13.0%	13.3%
9/28/2006	12.7%	14.6%
10/27/2006	10.3%	12.0%
11/29/2006	-0.3%	4.8%
12/28/2006	-6.9%	3.4%
1/26/2007	-10.2%	-6.6%
2/27/2007	-3.7%	-1.0%
3/26/2007	-9.8%	-5.5%
4/27/2007	-10.9%	-5.0%
5/29/2007	-11.5%	-6.3%
7/3/2007	-30.0%	-15.6%
7/30/2007	-19.9%	-11.5%
8/30/2007	-12.5%	-8.7%
9/27/2007	-19.0%	-18.2%
11/2/2007	-40.4%	-34.3%
11/28/2007	-40.1%	-38.3%
12/28/2007	-36.3%	-40.0%
1/25/2008	-36.4%	-35.9%
2/26/2008	-51.7%	-41.5%
3/24/2008	-40.9%	-36.8%
4/25/2008	-25.6%	-31.0%
5/28/2008	-22.2%	-33.6%
7/2/2008	-11.7%	-25.3%
7/29/2008	-10.5%	-20.9%
8/29/2008	-13.8%	-17.9%
9/26/2008	-4.3%	-10.0%
10/31/2008	18.7%	13.9%
11/26/2008	50.9%	27.7%
12/26/2008	48.9%	32.3%
1/23/2009	59.3%	36.4%
2/27/2009	92.8%	55.6%
3/27/2009	85.8%	48.1%
4/24/2009	69.7%	45.8%
5/29/2009	31.8%	22.8%
6/29/2009	21.3%	24.0%
7/29/2009	19.5%	15.9%
8/28/2009	7.4%	8.8%
9/25/2009	12.6%	12.4%
10/30/2009	22.7%	18.3%
11/27/2009	24.3%	13.6%
12/31/2009	23.7%	18.1%
1/22/2010	19.0%	20.6%
2/26/2010	18.6%	23.6%
3/25/2010	10.0%	15.4%
4/23/2010	7.1%	11.4%
5/28/2010	19.3%	25.4%
6/29/2010	24.6%	31.8%
7/29/2010	15.0%	24.6%
9/2/2010	30.2%	25.6%
9/24/2010	22.9%	19.1%
10/29/2010	15.4%	14.9%
11/26/2010	14.0%	13.7%
1/3/2011	5.8%	5.9%
1/28/2011	2.3%	5.7%
2/25/2011	2.9%	1.7%
3/24/2011	2.0%	2.3%
4/21/2011	-0.5%	-0.2%
Grand Total	7.9%	5.7%
Closed	7.1%	4.1%
Open	12.2%	13.2%

Category	Value
Total	125,790
Total New	117,231
Total Dividend	230,034
Total Russell 3K	117,574

Clearly it has been a winning strategy to go with the dividend stocks. Here are the dividend stocks that just expired:

Stock	Initial Price	End Price	Percent Change
LO	68.35	114.96	68%
RAI	24.46	39.49	61%
MHP	27.21	42.20	55%
PDLI	4.28	6.58	54%
USMO	12.58	15.62	24%
DLX	20.74	25.50	23%
CHKE	19.47	19.06	-2%
ELNK	8.07	7.84	-3%
UNTD	6.41	5.93	-7%
VALU	16.97	14.07	-17%

Tobacco did very well. Overall up 25.6%.

May 27th 2011 Portfolio

If you are playing along at home, I have also just set-up my May 27th 2011 portfolio. Here are the "new" stocks... there are quite a few:

Date	Stock	Initial Price	End Price
5/27/2011	USNA	29.4	29.4
5/27/2011	PRX	33.62	33.62
5/27/2011	NVMI	10.18	10.18
5/27/2011	LRCX	45.96	45.96
5/27/2011	LTXC	9.18	9.18
5/27/2011	KLIC	11.59	11.59
5/27/2011	ESI	70.87	70.87
5/27/2011	DEPO	8.63	8.63
5/27/2011	CRAY	6.23	6.23
5/27/2011	CSCO	16.46	16.46

Here are the dividend stocks...

Date	Stock	Initial Price	End Price
5/27/2011	UNTD	5.93	5.93
5/27/2011	USMO	15.62	15.62
5/27/2011	STRA	120.68	120.68
5/27/2011	RLRN	10.74	10.74
5/27/2011	RTN	50.03	50.03
5/27/2011	PETS	12.65	12.65
5/27/2011	PDLI	6.58	6.58
5/27/2011	GNI	100.22	100.22
5/27/2011	DLX	25.5	25.5
5/27/2011	CMTL	27.86	27.86
5/27/2011	CHKE	19.06	19.06
5/27/2011	HRB	15.97	15.97

Mechanical Portfolio Update

Finally, to cap off my lengthy month-end blog, I also add every week to 2 mechanical portfolios (with links for you in the left margin). The first is new stocks each week to the top 30 from the official list in the past 52 weeks. The second are new stocks to the top 50 (both 50m +). There were some new stocks this week. To the top 30, DELL and NVMI showed up for the first time in the past year. I own both of them, so hopefully that will augur well. Then LRCX made the top 50 list. It seems we're seeing a lot of semi-conductor equipment firms (NVMI, LRCX, KLAC to name a few) hitting the lists of late.