Tuesday, May 10, 2011

Continual Disappointment

Pity Party Paragraph

It does become a drag under performing all the time. I figured out that I am making 2% a year since I started and I am lagging (by a small margin) the Russell 3000 index. At the forefront again are the Chinese stocks. I have reduced their numbers, but they still find a way to drag me down. So today I was up about 0.3%, versus almost 1% for the MFI index. I am still down almost 2% on the year, while the MFI index is up about 7%. Well, if it is a drag for me, I am sure my pity party isn't brightening your spirits!

Paragraph Following the Pity Party Paragraph

How about those Mavericks! I did have quite a bit more earnings reported today, or yesterday, or whatever! It is difficult to remember the day things were announced as I wander over Switzerland. I am certainly well-fed. I went to the Bretzel-Koing this evening.

Earnings and News

CMFO - my Chinese Algae and Marine Snack food company reported earnings before the market opened today (China Marine Reports Q1 2011 Revenues of $26.7 million and Adjusted Net Income of $6.2 million and EPS of $0.21). The numbers look swell to me. Of course if the CFO is simply going behand a closed door and writing some numbers on a piece of paper, I guess I'd expect good numbers. That seems to be the street's view. The stock started off well (up about 5%) but they are now back to flat as the uptick seemed to be a reaosn to sell.

NEP - I gotta believe these guys aren't lying as they always do worse than expectations (China North East Petroleum Reports 2011 First Quarter Financial Results). Also, they only have a single customer (PTR) and it is such a simple business model that I could be their auditor. Even with subpar results, this is a $4 stock that made 36 cents a share for the quarter and has a cash balance of $75m, with a $120m market cap. So of course the stock is down 7% today. I will continue to G&BIT.

MSFT - I wonder if Microsoft wants to buy my company? They seem to have a knack for over-paying. Today they announced they were buying Skype for an outrageous $8.5b (Microsoft to buy Skype for $8.5 billion cash). Steve Ballmer had the gall to say that it was a good deal and would be accretive next year as Skype has $250m in EBITDA. Yeah? Well Microsoft could pay $8.5b for my daughter's lemonade stand and it might be accretive as they were holding the 8.5b in cash, but that doesn't make it a good buy. At $8.5b, they are paying 34x next year's EBITDA! "Normal" might be more like 7 to 10x. I know Ebay is laughing as they go to the bank. They had paid over $3b for Skype and finally admitted it was a mistake. But with this deal and the 20% they held onto, they will actually make a tidy profit (I think I read $2b over what they were carrying Skype at).

Then of course my other two Chinese stocks, JBGO and NEWN were down on this generally up day.

"Oh well... we'll catch up some other time"

High kudos will be given to anyone who tell me (without using a search engine) what song those lyrics come from. That is right, use your memory and "name that tune".

Well, C'est Tout. It is 10pm here and time to gte ready to power down.

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