Tuesday, May 17, 2011

PR(i)M and Proper

I have mentioned in my blog numerous times that a signal that the value stocks which make up MFI will do well, is when M&A activity heats up. Because who gets bought at a premium? Value stocks. That is often the catalyst.

I have also often harped on these pages of mine, that MFI dividend stocks, for whatever reason, have outperformed the broader basket of MFI stocks since I started tracking in 2006. That has been less true of late, but the winds seem to be changing.

The latest M&A "hit" was on Monday with PRM (Primedia Sold To PE Firm For $525 Million). That represents a 60% premium to where they were trading. That in turn made my dividend portfolios jump up as PRM was in Jan, Feb and September:

Date Stock Initial Price End Price Percent Change
2/25/2011 USMO 14.93 15.46 4%
2/25/2011 RLRN 10.71 10.41 -3%
2/25/2011 RTN 50.81 49.07 -3%
2/25/2011 PETS 14.72 12.72 -14%
2/25/2011 PRM 4.44 7.02 58%
2/25/2011 PDLI 4.74 6.39 35%
2/25/2011 LO 77.19 111.67 45%
2/25/2011 DLX 25.32 26.89 6%
2/25/2011 CHKE 17.00 19.05 12%
2/25/2011 HRB 15.02 15.87 6%
Date Stock Initial Price End Price Percent Change
1/3/2011 UNTD 6.53 5.97 -9%
1/3/2011 USMO 18.05 15.46 -14%
1/3/2011 PRM 4.07 7.02 72%
1/3/2011 PDLI 6.20 6.39 3%
1/3/2011 LO 80.55 111.67 39%
1/3/2011 ELNK 8.59 7.82 -9%
1/3/2011 DLX 23.42 26.89 15%
1/3/2011 CHKE 18.97 19.05 0%
1/3/2011 HRB 12.36 15.87 28%
Date Stock Initial Price End Price Percent Change
9/24/2010 UNTD 5.53 5.97 8%
9/24/2010 USMO 14.69 15.46 5%
9/24/2010 RTN 44.75 49.07 10%
9/24/2010 PRM 3.41 7.02 106%
9/24/2010 PDLI 5.01 6.39 28%
9/24/2010 LO 78.97 111.67 41%
9/24/2010 ELNK 8.85 7.82 -12%
9/24/2010 DLX 18.44 26.89 46%
9/24/2010 HRB 12.78 15.87 24%



Seth Klarman

Repeat after me, "if Seth Klarman likes a Magic Formula Stock buy it!". For those who do not know, Seth Klarman is one of the best value investors out there, often seeing value where others do not.

In the past quarter he increased his holdings in PDLI by 87% at an average price of $5.38. It is now $6.43, plus I am sure he has a dividend... so a nice 20%+ gain. I had bought them at about $5.10, but sold on fear of items in their 10k.

This quarter, he has also been a big buyer of AVEO, picking it up at around $14.21. It is now over $19, a nifty 34% gain for him in the quarter. I have placed it on my watch list, in the event it pulls back.

Dell Reports Solid Earnings

DELL reported their earnings after the bell, and they were quite satisfactory... nice for a change after being bloodied by Cisco. They made 55 cents a share, which seems pretty good for a $16 stock. This quarter replaces a so-so quarter from last year, so I suspect we'll be seeing Dell jump on some of the MFI lists.

In happy hour trading, they are up about 6%. That makes me up about 14%, so I am happy.

People seemed pretty split on Dell. Fast Money says it is time to take profits, while Cramer actually was bullish. I will hold as I think they are a good news story.

New Energy Spikes Up

When you have fallen a long ways, it doesn't take much for out-sized percentage gains. NEWN actually dropped at the end of last week to $2.68 on news that their earnings was being postponed a week. Well in the next two days, NEWN went from $2,68 to $3.34. I don't have mu calculator around, but that as to be pushing 25% in two days. I think there is still some hope for a recovery in this stock for me. Now if NEP would get going as well...

Go Mavericks!

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