Sunday, May 29, 2011

May 28th 2010 Tracking Portfolio

As my faithful readers know, I track the top 50 stocks over $100 every month from the official MFI website. I hold them for a year and then report the results here. This should come pretty close to replicating the portfolios JG created in TLBTBTM.

The May 2010 was not a winner, at least on a relative basis. It was up 19.3% versus 25.4% for the Russell 3000. The portfolio had two stocks (SOLR and CF) with gains over 100%. The bane of the portfolio was the three Chinese RTOs (CSKI, UTA and CEU). Yes I am familiar with those names.

Stock Initial Price End Price Pct Change 52 week low Mkt Cap
CF 68.36 155.19 127% 57.56 3,332
SOLR 5.46 11.53 111% 4.96 785
ENDP 20.94 41.52 98% 20.16 2,439
CBI 19.84 37.49 89% 16.64 2,004
SNTA 3.13 5.83 86% 2.55 127
CBST 21.50 38.29 78% 20.08 1,252
LO 68.35 114.96 68% 70.24 10,938
MRX 22.97 37.55 63% 21.02 1,350
IDCC 26.05 42.32 62% 23.73 1,146
RAI 24.46 39.49 61% 25.22 15,196
MHP 27.21 42.20 55% 26.95 8,771
VPHM 12.17 18.86 55% 10.29 947
PDLI 4.28 6.58 54% 4.66 642
PPD 46.32 66.27 43% 44.01 464
FWLT 24.01 33.89 41% 20.33 3,061
FRX 25.88 35.78 38% 24.17 7,826
RGR 15.45 21.11 37% 12.66 301
IPXL 21.08 27.18 29% 14.70 1,317
TNDM 13.44 16.89 26% 9.87 444
CBPO 12.89 16.10 25% 9.31 297
CNU 3.87 4.82 25% 3.25 233
USMO 12.58 15.62 24% 12.20 312
NSR 21.39 26.54 24% 20.20 1,602
GME 22.79 28.21 24% 17.70 3,484
IMMU 3.48 4.30 24% 2.81 262
DLX 20.74 25.50 23% 16.57 1,102
JCOM 23.14 28.27 22% 21.00 1,025
EME 24.97 30.22 21% 22.29 1,655
UIS 23.20 27.70 19% 17.04 986
SNTS 2.89 3.34 16% 2.09 169
TTT 7.24 7.81 8% 6.60 302
TSRA 17.38 17.19 -1% 14.96 872
RTN 50.73 50.03 -1% 42.65 19,832
CHKE 19.47 19.06 -2% 15.72 181
ELNK 8.07 7.84 -3% 7.61 927
AHCI 2.67 2.55 -4% 1.86 121
UNTD 6.41 5.93 -7% 4.75 590
AFAM 36.37 30.48 -16% 23.50 333
VALU 16.97 14.07 -17% 12.92 198
PRSC 16.39 13.29 -19% 11.88 212
OSK 35.53 27.79 -22% 24.63 3,186
APOL 53.16 40.22 -24% 33.75 8,059
CHOP 6.06 4.41 -27% 4.26 254
ARO 27.71 19.08 -31% 17.06 2,605
AMED 49.72 31.11 -37% 22.82 1,414
UEPS 14.32 8.36 -42% 7.29 650
CYTK 2.94 1.43 -51% 1.20 184
UTA 8.36 3.96 -53% 3.25 142
CEU 4.30 1.02 -76% - 129
CSKI 12.66 2.83 -78% 2.73 213


Every Tracking Portfolio Back to January 2006

Below I list how every tracking portfolio has performed back to January 2006. I have two "sub" portfolios, one I call "New", which only has stocks that were not in any of the prior 11 portfolios and "Dividend", which has stocks with dividends (per Yahoo Finance) > 2.59%. I then show all three of those portfolios as if you had invested $100,000 equally over the first 12 months. I do this as Average Percentages are not reliable. If You go down by 50% and then up by 50%, you are much worse off than down 10% and up 10%. Volatility matters.

Average of Percent Change
Date Total IWV
1/6/2006 16.0% 10.9%
2/17/2006 21.2% 14.6%
3/29/2006 13.0% 9.6%
4/7/2006 10.3% 12.1%
5/12/2006 20.4% 18.6%
5/31/2006 29.2% 23.3%
6/30/2006 22.4% 20.0%
7/31/2006 19.7% 17.3%
8/31/2006 13.0% 13.3%
9/28/2006 12.7% 14.6%
10/27/2006 10.3% 12.0%
11/29/2006 -0.3% 4.8%
12/28/2006 -6.9% 3.4%
1/26/2007 -10.2% -6.6%
2/27/2007 -3.7% -1.0%
3/26/2007 -9.8% -5.5%
4/27/2007 -10.9% -5.0%
5/29/2007 -11.5% -6.3%
7/3/2007 -30.0% -15.6%
7/30/2007 -19.9% -11.5%
8/30/2007 -12.5% -8.7%
9/27/2007 -19.0% -18.2%
11/2/2007 -40.4% -34.3%
11/28/2007 -40.1% -38.3%
12/28/2007 -36.3% -40.0%
1/25/2008 -36.4% -35.9%
2/26/2008 -51.7% -41.5%
3/24/2008 -40.9% -36.8%
4/25/2008 -25.6% -31.0%
5/28/2008 -22.2% -33.6%
7/2/2008 -11.7% -25.3%
7/29/2008 -10.5% -20.9%
8/29/2008 -13.8% -17.9%
9/26/2008 -4.3% -10.0%
10/31/2008 18.7% 13.9%
11/26/2008 50.9% 27.7%
12/26/2008 48.9% 32.3%
1/23/2009 59.3% 36.4%
2/27/2009 92.8% 55.6%
3/27/2009 85.8% 48.1%
4/24/2009 69.7% 45.8%
5/29/2009 31.8% 22.8%
6/29/2009 21.3% 24.0%
7/29/2009 19.5% 15.9%
8/28/2009 7.4% 8.8%
9/25/2009 12.6% 12.4%
10/30/2009 22.7% 18.3%
11/27/2009 24.3% 13.6%
12/31/2009 23.7% 18.1%
1/22/2010 19.0% 20.6%
2/26/2010 18.6% 23.6%
3/25/2010 10.0% 15.4%
4/23/2010 7.1% 11.4%
5/28/2010 19.3% 25.4%
6/29/2010 24.6% 31.8%
7/29/2010 15.0% 24.6%
9/2/2010 30.2% 25.6%
9/24/2010 22.9% 19.1%
10/29/2010 15.4% 14.9%
11/26/2010 14.0% 13.7%
1/3/2011 5.8% 5.9%
1/28/2011 2.3% 5.7%
2/25/2011 2.9% 1.7%
3/24/2011 2.0% 2.3%
4/21/2011 -0.5% -0.2%
Grand Total 7.9% 5.7%
Closed 7.1% 4.1%
Open 12.2% 13.2%

Category Value
Total 125,790
Total New 117,231
Total Dividend 230,034
Total Russell 3K 117,574

Clearly it has been a winning strategy to go with the dividend stocks. Here are the dividend stocks that just expired:

Stock Initial Price End Price Percent Change
LO 68.35 114.96 68%
RAI 24.46 39.49 61%
MHP 27.21 42.20 55%
PDLI 4.28 6.58 54%
USMO 12.58 15.62 24%
DLX 20.74 25.50 23%
CHKE 19.47 19.06 -2%
ELNK 8.07 7.84 -3%
UNTD 6.41 5.93 -7%
VALU 16.97 14.07 -17%

Tobacco did very well. Overall up 25.6%.

May 27th 2011 Portfolio

If you are playing along at home, I have also just set-up my May 27th 2011 portfolio. Here are the "new" stocks... there are quite a few:

Date Stock Initial Price End Price
5/27/2011 USNA 29.4 29.4
5/27/2011 PRX 33.62 33.62
5/27/2011 NVMI 10.18 10.18
5/27/2011 LRCX 45.96 45.96
5/27/2011 LTXC 9.18 9.18
5/27/2011 KLIC 11.59 11.59
5/27/2011 ESI 70.87 70.87
5/27/2011 DEPO 8.63 8.63
5/27/2011 CRAY 6.23 6.23
5/27/2011 CSCO 16.46 16.46

Here are the dividend stocks...

Date Stock Initial Price End Price
5/27/2011 UNTD 5.93 5.93
5/27/2011 USMO 15.62 15.62
5/27/2011 STRA 120.68 120.68
5/27/2011 RLRN 10.74 10.74
5/27/2011 RTN 50.03 50.03
5/27/2011 PETS 12.65 12.65
5/27/2011 PDLI 6.58 6.58
5/27/2011 GNI 100.22 100.22
5/27/2011 DLX 25.5 25.5
5/27/2011 CMTL 27.86 27.86
5/27/2011 CHKE 19.06 19.06
5/27/2011 HRB 15.97 15.97



Mechanical Portfolio Update

Finally, to cap off my lengthy month-end blog, I also add every week to 2 mechanical portfolios (with links for you in the left margin). The first is new stocks each week to the top 30 from the official list in the past 52 weeks. The second are new stocks to the top 50 (both 50m +). There were some new stocks this week. To the top 30, DELL and NVMI showed up for the first time in the past year. I own both of them, so hopefully that will augur well. Then LRCX made the top 50 list. It seems we're seeing a lot of semi-conductor equipment firms (NVMI, LRCX, KLAC to name a few) hitting the lists of late.

3 comments:

Free Speech said...

Marsh,
You may want to add another reference point for performance comparison: an equal-weighted mid-cap index fund; or at least an equal-weighted S&P index fund. That would be more inline what the MFI's a priori selection criteria.

Marsh_Gerda said...

That is a good idea. Do you know a stock symbol?

MG

Free Speech said...

I have posted the stock symbols in MFI board before. I will post it again.